Daily Tennis Tips – Saturday March 15

See below for our daily tennis tips and best bets around the courts for Saturday March 15 at Indian Wells, including the top tips and players to back in our tennis betting markets!

World No.2 Iga Swiatek gets an early shot at revenge against 17-year-old phenom Mirra Andreeva in a mouth-watering Indian Wells semi-final showdown.  

Andreeva steamrolled Swiatek 6-3 6-3 in the Dubai Championships quarter-finals three weeks ago. Swiatek had to come from behind to win their only other clash in three sets at last year’s Cincinnati Masters.  

World No.11 Andreeva went on to win her maiden WTA 1000 title in Dubai with wins over Elena Rybakina and Clara Tauson. Her winning streak is at 10 matches after dominant straight-sets victories against Varvara Gracheva, Tauson and Rybakina again, and Elina Svitolina at Indian Wells.  

Swiatek, the 2022 and ’24 Indian Wells champion, is striving to end the longest title drought of her career.  

The five-time slam winner has responded to the loss to Andreeva with devastating performances against Caroline Garcia (6-2 6-0), Dayana Yastremska (6-0 6-2), Karolina Muchova (6-1 6-1) and Qinwen Zheng (6-3 6-3). 

Swiatek heads in as a $1.57 favourite – her level of play this week and big-match experience is ominous. But Andreeva has taken her game to another level in recent weeks and has looked equally invincible here. A repeat defeat of Swiatek is on the cards.  

If you thought the Indian Wells Masters women’s semis couldn’t get any bigger, think again: world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka and Australian Open champion Madison Keys square off in a rematch of 2025’s first grand slam final.  

Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4-2, including wins at the 2023 US Open and 2024 China Open. But Keys pulled off a stunning 6-3 2-6 7-5 victory in the AO decider in January to clinch her first major title and deny Sabalenka three straight Melbourne Park triumphs.  

The previously untouchable Sabalenka struggled in the wake of that loss, suffering early exits in Doha to Ekaterina Alexandrova and in Dubai to Clara Tauson.  

But she’s regrouped at Indian Wells – where she was the runner-up in 2024 – with wins over Mccartney Kessler (7-6 6-3), Lucia Bronzetti (6-1 6-2), Sonay Kartal (6-1 6-2) and Liudmila Samsonova (6-2 6-3).  

Keys took a six-week break following her Australian Open success but has picked up where she left off, bookending hard-fought three-set wins over Elise Mertens and Donna Vekic with demolition jobs on Anastasia Potapova (6-3 6-0) and in-form Belinda Bencic (6-1 6-1).  

Sabalenka is 10-5 in WTA 1000 semi-finals, going on to win seven titles. Keys, who is in the Indian Wells semis for the first time, is 3-3 in Masters semis with only the 2019 Cincinnati title to her name.  

Sabalenka remains the WTA’s benchmark and the added motivation of gaining revenge on Keys gives her a key edge.  

Rejuvenated big guns Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune meet at Indian Wells for the second year in a row – this time in the semis – after putting some modest early-season form behind them.  

Medvedev has a 2-1 record against Rune, bouncing back from a straight-sets loss in their first meeting at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Masters (6-3 6-4) with tight wins in the Rome Masters final (7-5 7-5) that year and the 2024 Indian Wells Masters quarters (7-5 6-4).  

World No.13 Rune has come off a string of disappointing results to beat Corentin Moutet (6-2 6-4), Ugo Humbert (5-7 6-4 7-5), Stefanos Tsitsipas (6-4 6-4) and giant-killing Tallon Griekspoor (5-7 6-0 6-3).  

Fifth seed Medvedev had also been on a run of early exits, but now he’s one win away from a third straight Indian Wells final after accounting for Yunchoakete Bu (6-2 6-2), Alex Michelsen (2-0 ret), Tommy Paul (6-4 6-0) and Arthur Fils (6-4 2-6 7-6).  

The similarities in their respective runs in Palm Springs is striking: a season-best win in the Round of 16 against a top-10 seed and a rollercoaster semi-final battle with an opponent from the next tier down.  

If anything, Rune has had to navigate a tougher draw and is a tempting $2.38 underdog. If both players maintain their current level, however, a three-setter seems inevitable.  

British firecracker Jack Draper continues to go from strength to strength, now lining up in his maiden ATP 1000 semi-final at Indian Wells against world No.3 and two-time defending champ Carlos Alcaraz.  

Alcaraz has a 3-1 edge in the rivalry, though Draper retired in two of those matches – including in the 2023 Indian Wells and this year’s Australian Open’s Round of 16, with Alcaraz well on top in both. World No.14 Draper’s win came at the Queen’s Club Championships last year.  

US Open semi-finalist Draper returned from a short post-AO injury break with an excellent charge to the Qatar Open final. He’s now 11-2 this season after sending Joao Fonesca (6-4 6-0), Jenson Brooksby (7-5 6-4), third seed Taylor Fritz (7-5 6-4) and 11th seed Ben Shelton (6-4 7-5) packing.  

Since going down to Novak Djokovic in the AO quarters, Alcaraz won the Rotterdam Open before being upset by Jiri Lehecka (who Draper beat in the semis) in the Qatar Open quarters.  

The Spanish whiz has extended his winning streak at Indian Wells to 16 matches (and his career record here to 21-2) with emphatic victories against Quentin Halys (6-4 6-2), Denis Shapovalov (6-2 6-4), Grigor Dimitrov (6-1 6-1) and Francisco Cerundolo (6-3 7-6). 

Alcaraz will need to lift again with Draper proving consistently matching it with the tour’s best, but Alcaraz’s record at Palm Springs – and Draper’s comparative lack of big-stage experience – should prove decisive.