Daily Tennis Tips – Thursday March 27

See below for our daily tennis tips and best bets around the courts for Thursday March 27 at the ATP and WTA Miami tournaments, including the top tips and players to back in our tennis betting markets!

Between them, Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini have featured in the past six grand slam finals and the pair will square off for the first spot in the 2025 Miami Masters final.

Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 3-2, taking out the last two clashes at the 2023 China Open and 2024 WTA Finals, while Paolini’s last win was at Indian Wells in 2022.

World No.1 Sabalenka is 21-4 so far this season, winning the Brisbane International, making the Australian Open final and getting to the Indian Wells final, where she lost from a set up to Mirra Andreeva.

The Belarusian powerhouse has been outstanding again in reaching her first semi-final in Miami, disposing of Viktoriya Tomova (6-3 6-0), Elena-Gabriela Ruse (6-1 ret), Danielle Collins (6-4 6-4) and Qinwen Zheng (6-2 7-5).

Paolini has had a rockier 10-4 start to 2025 but has pieced together her best run to date here, getting past Rebeka Sramkova (6-4 6-4), Ons Jabeur (4-3 ret), Naomi Osaka (3-6 6-4 6-4) and Magda Linette (6-3 6-2).

The sixth seed’s only previous WTA 1000 semi-final came when she won the 2024 Dubai Championships, preceding her charge to the French Open and Wimbledon finals.

Three-time slam winner Sabalenka is 11-5 in Masters semi-finals.

Sabalenka is impossible to back against here, but there’s some value in $5 outsider Paolini to cover.

Filipino teenager Alexandra Eala has produced one of the great WTA Masters fairytale runs to reach the semi-finals in Miami, where she will aim to grab another massive scalp in the form of fourth seed Jessica Pegula.

World No.140 Eala – yet to qualify for a grand slam main draw, boasting just one 1000-level win prior to this tournament and without even a previous tour-level appearance in 2025 – upset Katie Volynets, Jelena Ostapenko and fifth-seeded Australian Open champ Madison Keys in straight sets.

But after Paula Badosa pulled out of their Round of 16 match, Eala took it up a notch with a 6-2 7-5 boilover against world No.2 Iga Swiatek as a $10 outsider.

US Open runner-up Pegula, who won the ATX Open earlier this month before going down to Elina Svitolina in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells, is into her third Miami Masters semi.

The 30-year-old has accounted for Bernarda Pera (6-4 6-4), Anna Kalinskaya (6-7 6-2 7-6), 23rd seed Marta Kostyuk (6-2 6-3) and a rejuvenated Emma Raducanu (6-4 6-7 6-2).

But based on her incredible giant-killing efforts so far, Eala is an irresistible pick here.

Big-serving duo Taylor Fritz and Matteo Berrettini have both produced their best run of disappointing starts to 2025 at the Miami Masters, lining up against one another for a spot in the semis.

Fritz is 4-0 against Berrettini, most recently carving out a straight-sets win over the Italian on his way to the 2024 US Open final.

World No.4 Fritz has struggled to reproduce the form that carried him to the decider at Flushing Meadows and was bundled out at Indian Wells by eventual champ Jack Draper in the Round of 16.

But the American has eliminated Lorenzo Sonego, the resurgent Denis Shapovalov (who he lost to in Dallas) and Adam Walton in straight sets in Miami.

Berrettini was halted in Dubai and Indian Wells by Stefanos Tsitsipas, but the 29th seed battled past Hugo Gaston here before accounting for Zizou Bergs in straight sets and defeating 10th seed Alex de Minaur 6-3 7-6.

Fritz, the 2022 Indian Wells champ, is vying for his first Miami Masters semi, while perennial ATP 1000 underachiever Berrettini had never previously been past the second round here.

Fritz is a deserving $1.50 favourite, but both players are in a groove and Berrettini’s win over de Minaur was a real statement. Expect a tight encounter with multiple tiebreaks.

Either Arthur Fils or Jakub Mensik will feature in their first ATP 1000 semi-final after the tyros square off at the Miami Masters.

World No.18 Fils made his first Masters quarter-final a fortnight ago at Indian Wells, losing a third-set tiebreak to Daniil Medvedev.

But the 20-year-old Frenchman has gone from strength to strength in Miami, outlasting Frances Tiafoe in three sets and upsetting top seed Alexander Zverev 3-6 6-3 6-4.

A Shanghai Masters quarter-finalist last year, 19-year-old Mensik is outside the top 50 after a patchy start to 2025.

But he sandwiched a huge upset of Indian Wells champion Jack Draper in between wins over Roberto Bautista Agut and Roman Safiullin over the past week, before Tomas Machac withdrew from their Round of 16 clash.

The pair’s only previous meeting was at last year’s Next Gen ATP Finals, with Fils winning in straight sets.

The manner in which Fils fought back to defeat Zverev, in particular, makes him very difficult to overlook in this one – but a fresh Mensik won’t be a pushover.