See below for our daily tennis tips and best bets around the courts for Friday March 28 at the ATP and WTA Miami tournaments, including the top tips and players to back in our tennis betting markets!
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
1.00am
Back Sabalenka to Win 2-0
Aryna Sabalenka has marched into her first Miami Masters final with typical ruthlessness and is an overwhelming favourite to atone for her loss in the Indian Wells decider with a victory over Jessica Pegula – the player she defeated in the US Open final six months ago.
Sabalenka won that final 7-5 7-5, giving her a 6-2 rivalry lead. Pegula’s only win since 2020 was at the 2023 WTA Finals.
World No.1 Sabalenka was barley troubled at Indian Wells a fortnight ago, before losing from a set up against Mirra Andreeva in the final.
But the three-time slam winner has responded brilliantly in Miami, yet to drop a set in disposing of Viktoriya Tomova, Elena-Gariela Ruse, and top-15 trio Danielle Collins, Qinwen Zheng and Jasmine Paolini.
Pegula endured a patchy start to 2025 but won the ATX Open earlier this month.
The world No.4 was halted by Elina Svitolina in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells and has navigated some tough spots in Miami, combining straight-sets wins over Bernarda Pera and Marta Kostyuk with rollercoaster three-setters against Anna Kalinskaya and Emma Raduncanu.
Pegula recovered from early trouble against Filipino bolter Alex Eala in the semi-finals to win 7-6 5-7 6-3.
Sabalenka is 7-4 in WTA 1000 finals, winning last year’s Cincinnati Masters and the Wuhan Open. Her four losses came in the 2023 and ’25 Indian Wells Masters, and at the Madrid and Rome Masters in 2024.
Pegula is 3-2 in WTA Masters finals, winning back-to-back Canadian Opens in 2023-24. But she hasn’t produced a level in Miami that looks capable of toppling Sabalenka, the current benchmark of women’s tennis.
Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov
6.00am
Back Djokovic to Win 2-0 @ $1.65
Novak Djokovic is just two wins away from his 41st ATP 1000 title – and his first since the 2023 Paris Masters – but first he has to get past fellow veteran and 2024 runner-up Grigor Dimitrov in the Miami Masters semis.
Djokovic boasts an eye-watering 12-1 record against Dimitrov, whose sole win over the legend was back at the 2013 Madrid Masters. Their most recent clash was at the 2023 Paris Masters; ominously, Djokovic has dropped just two sets in eight hard-court clashes with the Bulgarian.
After some recent shock losses, fourth seed Djokovic is back in the groove in Miami, yet to drop a set in eliminating Rinky Hijikata, Camilo Ugo, 15th seed Lorenzo Musetti and 24th seed Sebastian Korda.
Dimitrov, the 14th seed, has produced his best run of 2025 by defeating Federico Cina and Brandon Nakashima in straight sets, and top-25 duo Karen Khachanov and Francisco Cerundolo in three-setters after dropping the first.
The 33-year-old upset Alexander Zverev to reach last year’s final in Miami (eventually losing to Jannik Sinner), but Djokovic has a 59-18 record in ATP Masters semi-finals – winning 15 of his last 18 – and won’t let Dimitrov off the hook if he starts slow again.
Jakub Mensik vs Taylor Fritz
10.00am
Back Eala to Win
Appearing in just his sixth ATP 1000 event, 19-year-old Mensik is on the cusp of his first Masters final – a just his second on the tour overall. Big-serving world No.4 Taylor Fritz represents a serious semi-final hurdle in Miami however.
World No.54 Mensik’s run has come largely out of nowhere, struggling for form since reaching the third round of the Australian Open.
But he beat Roberto Bautista Agut in three sets, Indian Wells champ Jack Draper and Roman Safiullin in two, got a Round of 16 walkover when Tomas Machac withdrew, and overwhelmed 17th seed Arthur Fils 7-6 6-1.
Fritz hasn’t been in the best form this season, but the US Open runner-up eliminated Lorenzo Sonego, Denis Shapovalov and Adam Walton in straight sets, then outlasted Matteo Berrettini in a 7-5 6-7 7-5 quarter-final marathon.
The American’s only win in five ATP 1000 semi-finals was against Andrey Rublev on his way to winning the 2022 Indian Wells title.
This pair’s only previous encounter was a mismatch, with Fritz blazing to a 6-1 6-2 6-0 victory in the third round of the 2023 US Open.
But Mensik has made huge strides since and has collected six top-10 wins in the past 14 months – including Casper Ruud at the Australian Open and Draper already in 2025. He looks great value to add another to the tally.