On the back of a highly profitable Saturday last week, Ladbrokes form analysts Rebecca Hill, Craig Sheppard, and Ryan Cook are back to share their thoughts on this week’s key metropolitan meetings at Rosehill and Flemington.
Best bets include a tip for both the Group 1 Tancred Stakes and the Group 1 Australian Cup, as well as a roughie, a lay, and a cheeky Same Race Multi.
To follow along race by race, be sure to check out the Racing Community on the Ladbrokes app!
Rebecca Hill
Saturday’s Best Bet – Rosehill Race 4 No. 1 Ceolwulf
Ceolwulf is on the quick up after contesting the George Ryder last Saturday where he produced a terrific effort to finish a close third. The dual Group 1 winner kicked off his campaign with an encouraging effort in the Apollo Stakes before a slight mishap saw him dropping back in trip to contest the Canterbury Stakes at his following outing.
He relished the rise to 1500m last time and I think he’ll be even better getting out to 2000m here. He’s already proven himself out over a staying trip and he’s sure to find this easier than what he’s been contesting.
Lay of the Day – Doomben Race 2 No. 1 Prince Levi
My lay of the day is Prince Levi at Doomben. He opened at $1.85 and I just feel that’s too short for a horse carrying 60kgs on a heavy track as he stretches out to 2000m for the first time. All six of his runs have been on dry tracks and although he looks a very progressive galloper on the way up, I’m happy to risk him here.
Best Roughie – Rosehill Race 7 No. 1 Coal Crusher
My roughie of the day is Coal Crusher, who will lead out the field in the Group 3 Star Kingdon Stakes at Rosehill. He just looked to peak on his run late when resuming in the McCarten Stakes, but he will have taken good benefit from it.
Under the 61kg impost, the Joe Pride trained gelding did concede plenty of weight to much of the field and he gets in a little better here. With the added fitness, the rise to 1200m suits and any moisture in the track will only enhance his chances.
Tancred Stakes Best Bet – No. 1 Dubai Honour
Dubai Honour kicks off his Autumn campaign and I’m happy to have to him on top. The William Haggas trained gelding remains unbeaten on Australian soil, having triumphed in both the Ranvet Stakes and Queen Elizabeth in 2023.
An eight-time winner, the widely travelled seven year old was superb in his latest raceday appearance, where he finished second in the Hong Kong Vase in December. He ticks a lot of boxes here and draws to get the right run.
Australia Cup Best Bet – No. 8 Zardozi
I’m going to stick with Zardozi here as I think the race will set up beautifully for her. The Godolphin mare hit the line well at her past two starts but just had too much ground to make up last start in the Peter Young Stakes. The rise to 2000m looks ideal, she’ll relish getting back to Flemington and I think she’ll be powering over the top of them late.
SRM – Rosehill Race 6
My best SRM for Saturday is in the Vinery Stud Stakes at Rosehill.
Treasurethe Moment to run top 2, Movin’ Out to run top 3 and Benagil to run top 4.
Craig Sheppard
Saturday’s Best Bet – Flemington Race 4 No. 1 Ndola
Ndola will appreciate the drop in class after finishing 5.2 lengths ninth in the G1 Australian Guineas last start. Two starts back the Team Hayes-trained Justify colt caught the eye charging home strongly from the back to finish 3.3 lengths second to Sepals in the G3 CS Hayes Stakes. Given the Australian Guineas run was a month ago, he’s had a jump out to keep things ticking over and he produced an excellent piece of work where he ran through the line powerfully. He’s seven ratings points higher than his next rival so is extremely well weighted under the conditions of the race.
Lay of the Day – Morphettville Race 1 No. 1 Dubai Focus ($1.95 at publish)
There is no doubt the undefeated Dubai Focus is flying. However, this is his toughest test to date and I’m happy to take him on at the short quote given he comes up against several well performed horses like Snoopy Now who finished second in the G3 South Australian Sires Produce.
Best Roughie – Rosehill Race 4 No. 2 Hezashocka
There’s no doubting that Ceolwulf looks incredibly hard to beat in the Neville Sellwood Stakes but you must ask yourself, am I going to take $1.60 if the track turns to muck as the forecast suggests? There’s not too many horses in this race that have shown a liking for heavy tracks, but Hezashocka is one that relishes it. He won the Listed Newcastle Cup and G3 JRA Plate both on heavy decks.
Tancred Best Bet – Rosehill Race 8 No. 3 Arapaho
Arapaho fought bravely last start but just couldn’t hold out Vauban and finished a nose second in the G3 Sky High Stakes. The Bjorn Baker-trained son of Lope De Vega looks set to peak fourth-up, something he has regularly done throughout his career. Last preparation he enjoyed the heavy conditions at Caulfield to win the G2 Zipping Classic fourth-up. In the 2023 edition of this race, he proved too strong when winning, you guessed it, fourth-up. Heavy rain is forecast on Saturday and that plays into his hands given he grows a leg in the wet as shown by his record of two wins and three placings from eight heavy track races. Send ’er down Hughie as Arapaho is ready to go!
Australian Cup Best Bet – Flemington Race 8 No. 8 Zardozi
Any race that Pride Of Jenni contests is an intriguing contest and that is certainly the case with this year’s G1 Australian Cup. I’m hoping that Pride Of Jenni and Deny Knowledge go at a strong speed which will set it up for Zardozi. The James Cummings-trained mare was run off her feet early last start in the G2 Peter Young Stakes but was doing her best work late and taking ground off POJ to finish 2.8 lengths second. She’s primed to produce her best fourth-up just as she did in previous preparations when winning the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes, finishing second in the G1 Australian Oaks and finishing a nose second in the G1 Metropolitan. She has a good record at Flemington and the big straight will help her run down the leaders. Each way all day!
SRM – Flemington Race 6 – $12 at time of publish
Top 4 – No. 1 Oscar’s Fortune
Top 4 – No. 7 Sans Doute
Top 4 – No. 8 Pisanello
My top pick for race 6 at Flemington is Pisanello following his excellent return in the G3 Maurice McCarten Stakes and the fact he won his only previous start here. Sans Doute was a close second pick for me due to his awesome record at Flemington. Oscar’s Fortune goes into my Top 4 SRM as he flies fresh and has won four of five over the distance.
Ryan Cook
Saturday’s Best Bet – Rosehill Race 2 No. 2 Nepotism
Team Hawkes appears to have a nice colt on their hands in the form of this two-year-old son of Brutal. He was unlucky not to gain a start in the Slipper last week but has huge improvement still to come after running on late for third in the Todman Stakes on debut. Draws to do no work from another inside gate and will be difficult to hold out over further.
Lay of the Day – Flemington Race 2 No. 1 Prestige Ole
This son of Ole Kirk got up to win his maiden by just under half a length at Ballarat a few weeks ago, but this is obviously a much tougher assignment at set weights. I’m in the corner of Zorb, who probably would have won that same race if he wasn’t squeezed for room about 100m before the post.
Best Roughie – Flemington Race 7 No. 1 First Settler
I have a huge opinion of the Kiwi filly Alabama Lass, but I think the $9.50 about First Settler is overs. This guy beat home Jimmysstar in a recent jump out and was a winner of the G2 Danehill Stakes last October. More mature now and potentially heading to Sydney after this, I think he’s here to make a statement.
Tancred Best Bet – Dubai Honour
So hard to get away from the international superstar, who returns to Australian shores for the first time in a couple of years. He’s drawn to get a nice run off the speed and will go well if there’s any extra rain about.
Australian Cup Best Bet – Zardozi
I told myself never again after she failed to reel in Pride Of Jenni two weeks ago in the Peter Young, but I’ll give her one more chance out to 2000m on her home track.
SRM – Flemington Race 6