The upset trend continued in NRL Round 5 with four head-to-head underdog victories and an unlikely win to injury-hit South Sydney in the first five games.
Favourites Brisbane, Melbourne and Canterbury then closed out the weekend with emphatic wins by 20-plus margins to establish themselves as the premiership’s top three contenders.
Meanwhile, the edict handed down by the NRL to its officials created inevitable conjecture and chaos.
Crackdown overcorrection doomed to fail
After several nasty high shots that were punished only by a penalty (and subsequently incurred suspensions) marred Round 4, the following weekend was predictably dominated by some of the softest sin-bins ever doled out in the NRL.
Hudson Young (Canberra), Reece Robson (North Queensland), Izack Tago (Penrith), Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Gold Coast), Ray Stone (Dolphins) and Brendan Piakura (Brisbane) all spent 10 minutes in the sheds as rugby league veered dangerously close to rugby union’s overcautious route.
Coaches blew up and commentators were flummoxed.
None of the bins proved overly costly, though the opposition scored tries while Robson, Fa’asuamaleaui and Piakura (whose hit was likely the only one that would have been sanctioned even under previous crackdown conditions) had left their teams a man short.
The issue with the overzealous punishments is that it will almost certainly be temporary. At the very least, there’s little chance of referees making the same calls when a game is on the line or during the big matches at the end of the season.
Forever Young
The first victim of the crackdown ultimately returned to play an integral role in the early favourite for Try of the Season honours – and one of the great match-winners.
Canberra firebrand Hudson Young’s dubious sin-binning in the 57th minute on Thursday night allowed Cronulla to edge 20-18 in front with a penalty.
But with two minutes left, the Raiders ran the ball from halfway on the last and Young made the crucial bust. Three passes, a brilliant Xavier Savage kick that took a freakish bounce and two more offloads later, and Sebastian Kris had scored a last-gasp four-pointer for the ages.
The Raiders and Sharks played some excellent footy during the first four rounds, but it already felt like a pivotal clash for both teams after jarring defeats left them with 2-2 records.
The Green Machine’s adlib magic sees them head to Parramatta this weekend with their tails up, while Cronulla is suddenly under a bit pressure as it hosts a Manly outfit smarting from a heavy home loss to Melbourne.
Canberra is on the ninth line of premiership betting at $34; Cronulla has drifted to $15.
Time for Panthers to panic?
The four-time premiers are on a four-match losing streak, this time crashing to a 22-18 loss to North Queensland after conceding the only two tries of the second half.
Nathan Cleary’s return couldn’t sufficiently spark a Penrith attack plagued by an eye-watering 16 errors, but again it was a ragged effort without the ball that was the most jarring aspect of the 13.5-point favourites’ defeat.
The Panthers led the NRL defensively in each of the past five seasons, conceding less than 17 points on average in each. In 2025, they have leaked 22-plus points in every game and are mired in their worst losing run since 2019.
Tumbling to the fourth line in the premiership market ($10), the Panthers are eyeing a pivotal Round 6 road trip to take on the Dolphins on Thursday.
Ominously, only two teams in the past nine seasons – Cronulla (eighth in 2020) and Manly (fourth in 2021) – have qualified for the finals after netting just two points from the first five rounds.
Hamstrung Souths’ season hinges on Mitchell magic
Latrell Mitchell’s first outing since Round 18 last year seemed destined to finish in frustrating fashion, denied a first-half try by the Bunker and piloting two 40/20 attempts out on the full in the second stanza after Souths lost Jamie Humphreys, Cody Walker and Makaele Ravalawa to hamstring injuries.
But champion game-breakers of Mitchell’s ilk are only spurred on by setbacks – and he stepped up in trademark fashion when the derby against Sydney Roosters was balanced on a knife’s edge.
The shorthanded Rabbitohs courageously fought back to level with 16 minutes left when replacement half Jayden Sullivan busted the line and found Jye Gray in support, before Mitchell delivered an outrageous (but arguably forward) cut-out ball to send Isaiah Tass over in the corner.
Mitchell’s sideline conversion made it a 20-14 triumph against the odds.
The conundrum for Wayne Bennett is where to play the mercurial match-winner. He’s still best suited to fullback but livewire Gray has been Souths’ best in their surprise 4-1 start, while Mitchell’s full range of skills don’t get a chance to flourish in the centres.
The Rabbitohs’ injury crisis in the halves may see him line up at five-eighth for the time being – a position that could allow Mitchell, who has not played more than 17 games in five previous seasons with Souths, to have his most potent influence on their finals bid.
South Sydney has shortened to $26 in the premiership stakes and to $1.80 to make the Top 8.
Dolphins, Eels off the mark in style
Every team in the NRL now has a win on the board after the Dolphins and Parramatta put diabolical starts to the season behind them to record stirring drought-breaking wins.
There had been some desperately worrying signs for the Dolphins as they went 0-4, but a 36-10 victory on Friday over in-form Gold Coast – Kristian Woolf’s first at the helm – was the biggest in the club’s short history in a non-neutral away game.
Spine trio Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Isaiya Katoa and Kodi Nikorima produced easily their best performances after some patchy outings, while the Dolphins’ pack responded to justified criticism to ably subdue the Titans’ international-stacked engine-room.
Clint Gutherson’s return to CommBank Stadium was the dominant pre-match storyline on Saturday – and a fairytale was unfolding as his second try gave St George Illawarra a 20-8 lead early in the second half against Parramatta.
But ultimately it was a former Saint who proved the match-winner for the Eels, delivering another rookie coach – and fellow ex-Dragon – Jason Ryles his maiden NRL win.
Zac Lomax, a shining light amid the Eels’ early struggles, nailed a 40-metre penalty goal to square up the game with six minutes left and slotted the decisive field goal in golden point for a 23-22 success.
The performance of rookie fullback Isaiah Iongi, who produced a try assist, scored the try midway through the second half that got the Eels back into the game and produced a superb try-saving tackle on predecessor Gutherson, would have also been particularly satisfying for the club’s hierarchy.