The resurgence of Australian MMA legend Alexander Volkanovski continues this weekend as he attempts to reclaim UFC gold against Diego Lopes in Miami at UFC 314.
The impact that Volk has had on the sport in Australia cannot be understated and the entire country will be on his side when he takes on rising challenger Lopes for the UFC Featherweight title.
With any Michael Chandler fight comes an anticipation of violence and he will face off with one of the most popular athletes in the entire UFC in the shape of Paddy Pimblett in the co-main event.
The excitement doesn’t stop with those two fights, and we have taken a close look at the entire main card, offering our best UFC betting plays for each.
Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes
Every market that the UFC has entered into around the world has required a star to encapsulate its fans and showcase the sport to that audience.
Alexander Volkanovski has not only achieved this through his grit, determination, and endless abilities inside the octagon, but also with his unwavering character and authentic personality.
In a sport where a lot of athletes get to the top end of their division and develop a sense of entitlement and become bitter when they don’t receive title shots when they think they should, Volk has become a company man by being hungry for success and staying active.
It’s no surprise to this writer, and many fans, that despite two losses in a row, the UFC came knocking when the Featherweight belt was vacated by Illia Topuria.
After all, the Aussie champ won the Featherweight title in December of 2019 and defended the belt five times in the space of three and a half years, even fighting for the Lightweight title in between.
And his only loss in the division was to Topuria in February of last year.
Diego Lopes represents a new breed of MMA athlete right around the world.
Well rounded in all forms of mixed martial arts and starting their career at a young age.
Born and raised in Brazil but fighting out of Mexico, Lopes skipped the amateur scene as a young man and made his professional MMA debut at just 18, building an impressive record along the way.
Dana White failed to give him a contract when the Brazilian lost a technical decision to Joanderson Brito on his Contender Series after being poked in the eye and unable to continue the fight.
He was given a reprieve when offered a fight on five days notice against a ranked opponent in Movsar Evloev and despite losing via a decision, the fight earned him fight of the night honours as well as respect and adulation from the UFC brass.
Since then, the new prodigy has gone on a five fight win streak which includes wins over Sodiq Yusuff, Dan Ige and Brian Ortega during 2014.
The best pathway to victory for Lopes is his attacking and inventive ground game where he can find a submission from almost every situation but getting Volk to the canvas has been an incredibly difficult feat to achieve.
Volk has been knocked out in his last two fights so the questions on his chin are very real, especially considering he enters his 37th year of life in September.
We’ve never seen a Featherweight as quick and elusive on his feet as Alexander Volkanovski and to partner his control of distance is his fighting IQ which can not be understated in a situation that confronts him at this very moment.
He took some chances recently, and it resonated with Australian fans because it’s a part of who we are.
It’s a part of our identity and we are proud of that.
This Sunday, all Australians will be tuning in to UFC 314, searching for a smart, patient and focused Alexander Volkanovski.
One that is ready to climb the mountain once again.
1 Unit Alexander Volkanovski by Decision @ $3.25
Michael Chandler vs Paddy Pimblett
Just like the main event we see the determined veteran, looking to climb back into contention, taking on the up and coming, brash challenger rising through the ranks.
In terms of professionalism, I’m unsure the two could be further apart.
There is nothing that Michael Chandler hasn’t tried in order to gain an advantage outside the octagon to get him ready for any of his 32 professional MMA fights.
He has treated his body like a temple for his entire career and gotten the most out of the physical attributes that he has been gifted.
On the flip side, Paddy Pimblett has been weirdly proud and unapologetic about his horrible habits outside of fight camp, regularly putting on huge amounts of weights in between fights.
To his credit, he has seemingly been much more disciplined in recent years since he has been on the precipice of the rankings and he remains undefeated during his UFC career.
But let’s take a deeper dive into the recent form of these two.
Paddy beat Jordan Leivitt (1-1 since that fight), a very close decision against Jared Gordon (1-1-1 since), decision against Tony Ferguson (8 fight losing streak) and a vicious submission of Bobby Green (1 win from last 4).
Chandler has just two wins from six fights in the UFC but the losses came against Charles Oliveira (one was a title fight), Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier.
When facing those in a similar position to him in the chasing pack, Tony Ferguson and Dan Hooker, he knocked them out cold.
To use a horse racing analogy, one has been consistently running well in Group 1 races, and the other winning benchmark events and rising in class.
They meet in a Group 2 on Sunday and I’m taking the value on offer.
2 Units Michael Chandler To Win @ $2.25
Bryce Mitchell vs Jean Silva
The Fighting Nerds (I believe) still remain undefeated in the UFC since those glasses made their way around UFC crowds everywhere and Brazilian Jean Silva will look to continue that streak in this match up.
Silva won a contract through Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2023 and he won four fights in just over 12 months including a brutal KO of Charles Jourdain in his second fight in the UFC.
It was a quick rise through the ranks for Bryce Mitchell and he found himself 15-0 as a young man before his first loss to former champion Illia Topuria to close out 2022.
Mitchell was open about being disappointed and embarrassed about his brutal KO loss to Josh Emettt, feeling he should have instead felt about his recent comments on a certain podcast, but he bounced back with a win over Kron Gracie at the end of 2024.
A classic encounter between the heavy hitting Jean Silva and a top grade BJJ practitioner in Bryce Mitchell.
I have this contest closer to a 50/50 match up as opposed to what the market suggests and therefore have to tip the outsider in betting.
1 Unit Bryce Mitchell to win @ $3.40
Nikita Kyrlov vs Dominick Reyes
Ukrainian Kikita Kyrlov made his UFC debut in September 2018 against future champion Jan Blachowicz, a fight he lost by submission.
It didn’t get easier for Kyrlov in the coming years and he won just twice from his first six fights in the biggest promotion in the sport but three of those losses came against future champions Glover Teixeira and Magomed Ankalaev.
The now 33-year-old has now won his last three against Alexander Gustafsson, Volkan Oezdemir and Ryan Spann but we haven’t seen him since March 2023.
Dominick Reyes has also had a unique pathway throughout his UFC career and after his title fight with Jon Jones, which many thought he won, he went on a four fight losing streak.
Just like his opponent, he has bounced back to put a winning streak together, beating Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith in his last couple.
Two dangerous, heavy hitting light heavyweights doing battle and I’m confident the judges will not be needed.
2 Units Fight To End In KO/TKO
Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Pitbull
There’s no hiding the fact that the UFC has a stranglehold on the MMA market at the top of the sport and with this dominance comes the ability to attract talent from other organisations.
In recent years we’ve seen high level athletes like Jiri Prochazka, Alex Pereira, Michael Chandler and Kayla Harrison enter the UFC from other promotions and now get to see Patricio Pitbull.
And he may just have the best resume of any of them.
He was a double champ in the Lightweight and Featherweight divisions in Bellator, had nine defences across both divisions and even attempted to win a third belt in the Bantamweight division although he lost that title fight to Sergio Pettis.
There’s no easy fight in the UFC but Pitbull has been thrown into the fire against former Interim champion Yair Rodriguez who is looking to bounce back after back to back losses.
After beating Josh Emmett in Perth to win the interim title he lost in his bid to unify against Alexander Volkanovski and then was submitted by Brian Ortega in early 2024.
13 of his 19 career wins have been finishes with an even spread across all methods of victory providing evidence to his very well rounded fighting style.
Pitbull has 36 total career wins with 12 by KO, 12 by submission & 12 by decision.
This is an incredibly difficult fight to assess from a betting standpoint and if I was forced to have a bet I may lean into Pitbull to get a finish (KO or Sub) as he may be here to make a statement.
But I’m not forced so I’ll be staying out and watching on.
No Bet
Chase Hooper vs Jim Miller
This is a bonus tip because I can not believe the price we are getting.
I am a big fan of Chase Hooper and he is a very well credentialled grappler with an aggressive submission game but he has incredible holes in his stand up.
This part of his game is visibly improving with experience but he takes on a seasoned veteran in the form of Jim Miller who has the most fights AND wins in UFC history.
And his record suggests he isn’t declining having won six of his last eight fights.
There’s no hiding the fact that Hooper holds a grappling advantage over most of his opponents but that gap isn’t as large against a very good, experienced guy like Jim.
Chase Hooper is (currently) $1.13 and that is just the wrong price.
Back him straight out but Miller by KO/TKO and even submission (pending price) is worth a small play.
2 Units Jim Miller To Win @ $ 6.20