Daily Tennis Tips – Monday 12th May

See below for our expert daily tennis tips and best bets around the courts for Monday May 12, 2025!

Seventh seed Alex de Minaur is a red-hot $1.07 favourite to advance to the Rome Masters Round of 16 at the expense of Bolivian journeyman Hugo Dellien.

De Minaur is 2-0 against Dellien after straight-sets victories at the 2019 Basel Open and Wimbledon in 2022.

After a Round of 16 loss to Lorenzo Musetti in Madrid, de Minaur – a French Open quarter-finalist last year – outlasted Luca Nardi 6-4 7-5 in his opening assignment in Rome.

World No.103 Dellien won a pair of qualifiers against Marc-Andrea Huesler and Vilius Gaubas, before rallying to beat Thiago Seyboth Wild 4-6 6-3 6-4 for his first ATP 1000 main draw win since 2021.

It’s a case of ‘Demon’ by how much here, though, and looks decent value to cover here.

Big guns Casper Ruud (sixth seed) and Matteo Berrettini (29th seed) resume their busy clay-court rivalry in the Round of 32 at the Rome Masters.

Ruud holds a 4-3 lead against Berrettini (3-2 on clay), including a win in the 2020 Rome Masters quarters – though Berrettini hit back with a victory in Madrid in 2021. The Italian also won their most recent clash, at the 2023 United Cup.

Coming off his triumph at the Madrid Masters – where he beat three top-10 opponents – Ruud got underway in Rome with a 6-4 4-6 6-3 win over Alexander Bublik.

Big-serving Berretini fell to eventual runner-up Draper in the Round of 32 in Madrid, but he has shown glimpses of his best on this swing – most notably beating world No.2 Alexander Zverev in Monte-Carlo.

The 29-year-old saw off Jacob Fearnley 6-4 7-6 in the Round of 64, dropping just one game on serve.

Ruud has apparently rediscovered the form that took him to two French Open finals, however, and is the clear pick here.

Former French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko and 2024 Roland Garros runner-up Jasmine Paolini square off for a Rome Masters quarter-final berth.

Ostapenko has a 2-1 record against Paolini, winning their last two encounters at the 2023 US Open and the Qatar Open in February this year – the latter a 6-2 6-2 drubbing on her way to the final.

The enigmatic Latvian stunned Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka to win last month’s Stuttgart Open, then lost to Anastasija Sevastova first up in Madrid. The 17th seed rallied from a poor start to beat Rebecca Sramkova 1-6 6-4 6-3 in her opening assignment here and got a Round of 32 walkover.

Sixth seed Paolini has overpowered Lulu Sun and Ons Jabeur by identical 6-4 6-3 scorelines so far.

She was a semi-finalist in Stuttgart, beating Coco Gauff before falling to Sabalenka in a tight one. The Italian was thrashed by Maria Sakkari in the Round of 32 in Madrid.

Ostapenko is anything but reliable, but her best tennis in 2025 makes a compelling case for another top-10 win here.

Belgian veteran Elise Mertens and Russian tyro Diana Shnaider meet for the second time on this clay swing, in the Rome Masters’ Round of 16.

Mertens has won both of her matches against Shnaider to date, at the 2023 Monterrey Open and a 6-2 7-6 result at last month’s Stuttgart Open.

The 25th-seeded Mertens is coming off a 7-5 6-1 statement win over third seed Jessica Pegula, having come from a set down to beat Suzan Lamens in her first match.

World No.11 Shnaider, meanwhile, has demolished Caroline Dolehide (6-0 6-0) and Jacqueline Cristian (6-3 6-3).

Mertens was halted by Aryna Sabalenka in Stuttgart and Madrid, while Shnaider pushed Iga Swiatek all the way in a three-set loss in Madrid.

Shnaider is a $1.70 favourite, but Mertens is in outstanding touch and boasts the psychological edge from Stuttgart. Expect a lengthy arm-wrestle here.