Daily Tennis Tips – Thursday 15th May

See below for our expert daily tennis tips and best bets around the courts for Thursday May 15, 2025!

Eleventh seed Tommy Paul and 30th seed Hubert Hurkacz meet in the Rome Masters quarter-finals for the second straight year.

Paul leads Hurkacz 2-1 in the head-to-head, winning at Indian Wells in 2023 and in last year’s Rome Masters quarters after the Pole’s Paris Masters victory in 2021. All three matches featured totals of 25-plus games.

American Paul overcame Roberto Bautsita Agut and 19th seed Tomas Machac, before overcoming an 0-5 record against Alex de Minaur to win their Round of 16 clash 7-6 6-3.

Former top-10 regular Hurkacz, after a period marked by injury and poor form, has produced his most notable run in some time by beating Pedro Martinez, Marcos Giron and – in a marathon Round of 16 encounter – in-form 20th seed Jakub Mensik 7-6 4-6 7-6.

Paul has made three ATP 1000 semi-finals in the past two years, including in Rome last year. Hurkacz boasts two Masters titles (Miami in 2021 and Shanghai in 2023) but hasn’t been past the quarters of an ATP 1000 event on clay.

Hurkacz could be leg-weary from his barnburner against Mensik, but this shapes as a super-tight affair.

World No.1 Jannik Sinner has put the controversy of his positive drug test suspension behind him to cruise into the Rome Masters quarter-finals, where he meets in-form sixth seed Casper Ruud.

Sinner won all three of their previous encounters – most recent a 6-1 6-2 demolition at the 2024 ATP Finals.

Yet to win a clay tournament above ATP 250-level, Sinner has returned from his ban – in his first matches since winning the Australian Open – with wins over Mariano Navone (6-3 6-4), Jesper De Jong (6-4 6-2) and 17th seed Francsico Cerundolo (7-6 6-3).

Two-time French Open runner-up Ruud, after struggling to find consistent form, won the Madrid Masters with wins over three higher-ranked players and has reached the last eight here by beating Alexander Bublik (6-4 4-6 6-3) and Jaume Munar (6-3 6-4).

Sinner has hit the ground running in Rome, but Ruud is an elite clay-courter and in great touch; the Norwegian is excellent value as a $3.60 underdog.

Last year’s French Open and Wimbledon runner-up, Jasmine Paolini, takes on first-time WTA 1000 semi-finalist Peyton Stearns at the Rome Masters.

Sixth seed Paolini has found form on clay again after some patchy early-season form, reaching the semis in Stuttgart and accounting for Lulu Sun (6-4 6-3), Ons Jabeur (6-4 6-3), Jelena Ostapenko (7-5 6-2) and Diana Shnaider (6-7 6-4 6-2) so far in Rome.

World No.42 Stearns won the Rabat Grand Prix on clay last year, but this is the most significant run of her career to date.

The American looked good in reaching the Round of 16 in Madrid, where she was stopped by Aryna Sabalenka, and has maintained that momentum here with wins over Nuria Brancaccio and Anna Kalinskaya in straight sets, and Madison Keys, Naomi Osaka and Elina Svitolina in three.

The upset of Keys was just Stearns’ second over a top-10 player – but she is a compelling $2.70 outsider here.

After claiming a watershed maiden upset of Aryna Sabalenka in the quarter-finals, eighth seed Qinwen Zheng is searching for her first win over fourth seed Coco Gauff in the Rome Masters semis.

Gauff is 2-0 against Zheng, winning their clashes in last year’s Rome Masters quarter-finals (7-6 6-1) and the decider of the WTA Finals (3-6 6-4 7-6).

Olympic champion Zheng has been sensational in Rome, beating Olga Danilovic, Magdalena Frech and Bianca Andreescu in straight sets by games margins of seven-plus, then defying an 0-6 record against world No.1 Sabalenka in a 6-4 6-3 boilover.

Gauff, the 2022 French Open runner-up, reached the Madrid Masters final last month – losing to Sabalenka. After battling past Victoria Mboko in three sets, Gauff has overwhelmed Magda Linette, Emma Raducanu and Mirra Andreeva in two.

In what shapes as an absorbing battle between two bona fide Roland Garros contenders, Gauff’s consistency and defensive capabilities give her a slight edge as two of the tour’s best ball-strikers go toe-to-toe.