Daily Tennis Tips – Friday 16th May

See below for our expert daily tennis tips and best bets around the courts for Friday May 16, 2025!

World No.3 Carlos Alcaraz and ninth-ranked Lorenzo Musetti meet in their second high-stakes ATP 1000 match of 2025 in the Rome Masters semis.

Alcaraz is 5-1 against Musetti, whose sole victory was on clay in the 2022 Hamburg Open final. Since then Alcaraz has prevailed in a 2023 French Open clash and came from a set down to win the Monte-Carlo Masters final this year.

Musetti’s sparkling clay swing has carried him to a career-high ranking, subsequently reaching the Madrid Masters semis and disposing of Otto Virtanen, Brandon Nakashima, Daniil Medvedev and world No.2 Zverev in straight sets in Rome.

French Open champ Alcaraz skipped Madrid but has been outstanding in his pursuit of a maiden Rome title (and a seventh at ATP 1000 level), beating Dusan Lajovic and Laslo Djere in straight sets, Karen Khachanov in three, and Jack Draper 6-4 6-4 in the quarters.

Alcaraz is the current clay-court kingpin, but Musetti made a massive statement against 2024 Roland Garros runner-up Zverev and should push the Spanish whiz here.

World No.1 Jannik Sinner has made a blockbusting return from a drug suspension at the Rome Masters and consequently heads into his semi-final against surprise packet Tommy Paul as a $1.10 favourite.

Sinner is 3-1 against Paul, most recently clashing at the 2024 US Open.

Sidelined since winning the Australian Open, Sinner put away Mariano Navone (6-3 6-4), Jesper De Jong (6-4 6-2) and Francisco Cerundolo (7-6 6-3), before producing a near-perfect quarter-final performance against Casper Ruud (6-0 6-1) – dropping just 22 points against the in-form sixth seed.

It’s been a huge pre-French Open statement from a superstar who is yet to feature in a clay-court final above ATP 250-level.

Eleventh seed Paul, meanwhile, is into his second straight Rome Masters semi-final – and is vying for his maiden ATP 1000 final – after wins over Roberto Bautista Agut (6-1 6-4), 19th seed Tomas Machac (6-3 6-7 6-4), seventh seed Alex de Minaur (7-5 6-3) and Hubert Hurkacz (7-6 6-3).

Sinner is on another plane, though, with considerably more weapons in his arsenal and looks likely to wrap this semi-final up quickly.

Sixth seed Jasmine Paolini has become the first Italian to reach the Rome Masters final in 11 years, locking horns with world No.4 – and fellow French Open finalist – Coco Gauff for the title.

Paolini takes a psychological edge into this one, having beaten Gauff 6-4 6-3 at last month’s Stuttgart Open; the American won the pair’s previous two encounters, in Adelaide in 2021 and Cincinnati in 2023.

Last year’s French Open and Wimbledon runner-up, Paolini has hit top form again in Rome with wins over Lulu Sun (6-4 6-3), Ons Jabeur (6-4 6-3), Jelena Osatpenko (7-5 6-2), Diana Shnaider (6-7 6-4 6-2) and semi-final bolter Peyton Stearns (7-5 6-1).

It’s a challenging draw that holds the late-blooming 29-year-old in good stead in just her second WTA 1000 decider, having won last year’s Dubai Championships.

After her loss to Paolini in Stuttgart, 2022 Roland Garros finalist Gauff made a run to the Madrid Masters final that included a semi-final demolition of Iga Swiatek before going down to Aryna Sabalenka.

In Rome, Gauff started with a scratchy three-set win over Victoria Mboko, then beat Magda Linette, Emma Raducanu and Mirra Andreeva in straight sets, and outlasted Qinwen Zheng 7-6 4-6 7-6 in a marathon semi.

Gauff is a $1.48 favourite to claim her third WTA 1000 title, but the semi was a gruelling affair – and Paolini’s recent victory makes a compelling case for another upset with the home crowd behind her.