Two obvious marquee games headline Round 13 this week.
Things get off to a fast start when the Power and Cats clash in Adelaide on Thursday night, followed by another top-eight battle on Sunday between West Coast and Richmond from Perth.
The Lions, Blues, Dogs and Bombers are all on the bye, but there’s plenty of value to be found on the remaining seven games.
With footy being played from Thursday through to Monday, find out who we’re tipping ahead of each contest in our AFL Round 13 Preview below!
Thursday June 10, 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval
The Power forced the Cats to go about their business the hard way during the finals last year with a 16-point win in the Qualifying Final.
That didn’t stop Geelong from making it to the Grand Final, but it’s safe to say Chris Scott’s side will still have revenge on their mind ahead of this huge battle between third and fifth.
Port Adelaide comes into this one riding a two-game winning streak following a one-point win over Collingwood and a blowout over the Dockers a fortnight ago.
Geelong, meanwhile, has coasted to four straight victories, although they did leave a bit to be desired in a close call against the Pies before the bye.
As the market suggests, there really isn’t anything more than home-field advantage separating these two sides.
Things are made even more complicated with both teams fresh from a bye, but that could mean we’re in for a low-scoring game with both backlines well-rested.
Aside from the fact the last seven games between these two sides have all gone Under the Total, it’s also worth noting that the Power and Cats rank bottom five in goals allowed to opponents.
Tip: Under the Points Total
Friday June 11, 7:50pm, SCG
Things typically turn out close whenever the Swans and the Hawks meet and that could certainly be the case again on Friday.
A third straight win for the Swans could be enough to vault them back inside the top four if results go their way, but John Longmire will be exercising caution against a well-rested Hawthorn side fresh from the bye.
The Hawks have endured a tough season to date with only two wins to celebrate, but they have shown glimpses of a bright future with several young names like Jacob Koschitzke and Changkuoth Jiath taking a big step forward.
Overall, the Swans should win this game thanks to their potent forward line, but the fact Hawthorn has spent a couple of weeks in Sydney following their game against the Suns in Round 11 bodes well for their chances.
Six of the last seven games between these two sides have been decided by less than two goals, so the current line does look a little generous.
Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+33.5 Points) @ $2.00
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday June 12, 4:15pm, Optus Stadium
This should be a very interesting game on Saturday between two sides with plenty left to play for.
The Dockers have won only one of their last five games, but they still find themselves in the hunt for the eight alongside Essendon, GWS and St Kilda on the ladder.
Not far behind, the 13th place Suns will be looking to build on their impressive win over the Hawks a fortnight ago.
Aside from a couple of rough games against Brisbane and Geelong, Stuart Dew’s side has been playing some very competitive footy of late – a worrying sign for a Fremantle side that has been dismantled by injuries.
The Dockers lost by 28 to the Dogs last week, but the biggest blow came when Nat Fyfe, Sean Darcy and Brennan Cox all left the ground with respective injuries.
Playing at home is obviously a huge advantage for Freo, but it’s hard to ignore the fact the Suns have won their last two meetings against the Dockers.
Throw in the fact they also have a rest advantage, and the Suns really don’t look a bad bet to cover if Ben King and underrated star Izak Rankine can dominate like they did against the Hawks.
Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+9.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday June 12, 7:25pm, Cazaly's Stadium
There’s still plenty of footy left to play, but this shapes as a very important game as far as the finals are concerned.
The Saints continue to stumble following an honourable loss to the Swans last week, while the Crows have cooled off significantly from their hot start with only one win from their last five games.
From a punting perspective, this is probably the toughest game of the round to bet on and it is only made more complicated by the neutral ground of Cazaly’s Stadium in Queensland.
Stats-wise, the Saints and the Crows rank among the easiest sides to score goals against this season, so there’s reason to believe we’re in for a high-scoring game.
The last two contests between these two have gone Over the Total, and although the Saints lost to Sydney, they did show some encouraging signs last week in the forward line.
With Tex Walker also playing out of his skin this year, the scoreboard could be in for a workout.
Tip: Over 162.5 Total Points @ $1.88
Sunday June 13, 3:20pm, Blundstone Arena
The Giants currently find themselves eight points adrift from finals contention, but they do have a good chance of closing the gap against bottom-dwelling North Melbourne this week.
GWS returns from the bye week with three wins from their last five games, but Leon Cameron will likely be wary of a Kangaroos side that typically plays well down in Tassie.
The Roos famously came from four goals down to defeat Hawthorn in Launceston close to a month ago, while there was also a lot to like about North’s efforts early on against the Saints in Round 11.
That said, the Giants should sense the importance of this game after the Bombers, Freo and St Kilda all helped their top eight cause last week with respective losses.
The Giants actually lost to North when they met this time last year in Sydney, but they should be winning this game based on talent alone.
For some added value, it’s worth noting that six of the last seven games between these two sides have all gone Under the Total, so the Winner/Total Points Double market looks a good play.
Tip: Back the Giants to Win & Under 160.5 Total Points @ $2.60
West Coast Eagles
Sunday June 13, 7:20pm, Optus Stadium
Seventh and eighth get together on Sunday in a game that could turn out to be a potential finals preview.
Both sides have won three of their last five games, but it appears the bookies are siding with Richmond on this occasion after the ‘Tiges roared home in the final term last week to defeat Essendon by 22 points in the Dreamtime clash.
The fact last week’s game was played in Perth bodes well for the Tigers, but this is obviously a much tougher test against a West Coast side that played very well against the Blues last week in Sydney.
By the same token though, this is also a big step up in class for the injury-riddled Eagles with Tim Kelly, Jeremy McGovern and Luke Shuey still on the sideline.
West Coast faces a tough few weeks ahead with the Dogs up next after the bye, and with Richmond showing they can not only win on the road, but still shift up to sixth gear when they need to, the Tigers look a good bet to win a close one.
Tip: Back Richmond 1-39 @ $2.20
Monday June 14, 3:20pm, SCG
The annual Queen’s Birthday Game looks to be a good one between the Dees and Pies on Monday afternoon.
Warning signs were going off at the heart of Demonland last week following a disastrous first half against the Lions, but the way Simon Goodwin’s side responded in the final term reminded everybody why Melbourne is the real deal this year.
The Pies, on the other hand, picked up a hard-fought win over the Crows, but whatever faint finals pulse they still have looks likely to come to an end this week against the flag favourites.
Collingwood certainly has the talent to keep this game competitive on neutral turf, but it’s hard to ignore the fact the Dees won by 56 points when these two sides met last year.
It’s also tough to look past Melbourne’s incredible bill of health, something that can’t be said for Collingwood as they prepare for another game without Brodie Grundy.
The Pies currently rank second-last in average goals and that really doesn’t bode well against a Demons side that carved up a very good Brisbane defence in the second half last week.
With an equally impressive 9-3 record at the line this year, the Dees should be winning this comfortably.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (-29.5 Points) @ $1.90
Life might feel a little empty this week as fans have a chance to catch their breath following three straight weeks of wall-to-wall action.
Another festival of footy scheduled between rounds 15-17 awaits, so now is the time to try and come out on top before the season gets a little crazy again.
It’s wild to think we’re actually getting excited about a game between the Suns and Blues on Friday night, but the showdown between 12th and 13th does hold plenty of weight in terms of the finals.
Sunday’s meeting between the Lions and the Saints is far and away the game of the round, while Sunday’s twilight meeting between West Coast and GWS sets up as a make-or-break game for the Giants.
Things are starting to get serious with only six rounds remaining, but we’re confident we’ve found a few winners in our 2020 AFL Round 13 tips below.
Gold Coast Suns
Friday August 21, 7:50pm, TIO Stadium
Suns coach Stewart Dew will be hoping for an effort level similar to the one his side produced on Tuesday night against Richmond.
The Suns matched the Tigers for almost four quarters before a couple of late goals saw the Tigers home by 21.
Carlton coach David Teague, meanwhile, will be hoping for a more thorough performance from his side following last week’s thrilling win over Fremantle on the siren.
The Blues find themselves just four points off the eight, making this another must-win game for Carlton with Collingwood and GWS ahead over the coming two weeks.
The Suns did a lot right against Richmond and there really isn’t as much between these two sides as the market suggests.
Carlton’s inside 50 entries were ordinary against the Dockers, while they also struggled to take contested marks and, aside from Jack Newnes, kick accurately in front of goal.
The short rest really does hurt the Suns though and the added travel to the Northern Territory has to be factored in.
Either way, this should be a cracking game between two of the most improved sides in the comp, but the edge has to go to the Blues.
Tip: Back Carlton 1-39 @ $2.00
Saturday August 22, 1:45pm, Metricon Stadium
The Demons have snuck their way back inside the eight thanks to three wins on the trot, but they’ll need to keep cool with another massive game ahead at Metricon on Saturday.
The Bulldogs took care of business last week in their 57-point win over the Crows, a result that leaves Luke Beveridge’s men tied on points with the Demons in 10th.
A win for the Dogs on Saturday would surely vault them inside the eight momentarily, but as the market suggests, a win for either team is far from a guarantee.
Melbourne has been very impressive in recent weeks outscoring each of their last three opponents by 50+ points.
On the flip side, two of those wins have come against Adelaide and North, so it’s tough to read too much into their form.
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have proven themselves to be just as unpredictable.
Belting the Crows last week really doesn’t mean much, especially when you factor in how ordinary the Dogs looked against Richmond, Port Adelaide and the Lions in weeks prior.
To their credit though, the Dogs do rank fifth in inside 50s, third in disposals and seventh in goals, so they aren’t as bad as it sometimes might seem.
The Bulldogs also have also played four games at Metricon this year to Melbourne’s one, so with a little more familiarity with the ground, there’s plenty to like about the Dogs keeping this close.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $2.00
Saturday August 22, 4:35pm, Adelaide Oval
The Power have a brilliant opportunity to bounce-back from last week’s thrashing at the hands of Geelong as they prepare to host a Hawthorn side limping to the finish line.
Port’s backline was no match for Geelong last Friday night as Tom Hawkins helped himself to a six-goal bag.
The Power have proven twice already this season that they are more than capable of atoning for a previous loss, and they should have no trouble doing so against an injury-riddled Hawks side that is now missing James Sicily down back.
Hawthorn did a lot right last week against West Coast, even if the scoreline doesn’t reflect it.
That said, it’s obvious the Hawks are struggling up forward after managing only 11 goals in their last two games.
The Hawks have won their last two games against the Power, but they haven’t defeated Port in Adelaide since 2016.
With a perfect 2-0 record at the line following a previous loss, we’re tipping the Power by plenty.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (-24.5 Points) @ $2.00
Saturday August 22, 7:40pm, TIO Stadium
You can just about put a line through the Bombers if they fail to win this week.
Essendon’s efforts against St Kilda last Sunday were dismal at best, and it’s difficult to see them producing anything out of the ordinary against a Richmond outfit hungry to return to the top four.
After showing so much promise earlier in the year, the Bombers have suddenly reverted back to playing very slow footy.
Moving the ball forward has proven a problem for the Dons over the last month and it appears the bookies want no part with a long double-digit line set for Saturday’s game.
Richmond, on the other hand, have a point to prove.
Two late goals saved the Tigers on Tuesday night in what was a very flat performance against the Suns.
The short turnaround doesn’t make life easy, but with a chance to make it 10 wins in a row against the Bombers and also cement themselves in the top eight, it’s difficult to back against the Tiges’.
Tip: Back Richmond 1-39 @ $1.85
Saturday August 22, 8:10pm, Optus Stadium
The Swans were enormous last Thursday night against GWS in what can only be described as one of the upsets of the season.
Sydney came out firing to pummel their rivals by 41-points, a performance John Longmire will be hoping his side can replicate ahead of Saturday’s battle between 14th and 15th.
With all that in mind, the Swans still find themselves as the underdog against a Fremantle side looking to bounce back from a nightmarish result last week against Carlton.
In what was a low-scoring game, the Dockers were left stunned as Jack Newnes sent a dagger through Fremantle hearts on the final siren.
Home field advantage is a big reason for Freo’s favouritism though, and it’s not hard to understand why when you consider the Swans haven’t defeated the Dockers in Perth since 2016.
All four games between these two sides have gone Under the Total during that time and it’s difficult to envision this one being high scoring.
The Swans are still missing several key names, while Freo’s measly five-goal total last week says it all.
This could be one of the most exciting games of the round, but it might turn into a bit of a stalemate.
Tip: Under the Points Total
Sunday August 23, 1:05pm, Adelaide Oval
The Cats put the rest of the league on notice last week with an impressive 60-point win over top of the table Port Adelaide.
Geelong can make it a clean sweep over South Australia on Sunday against the winless Crows, a game that should not only boost Geelong’s percentage, but potentially their spot on the ladder.
The Crows showed some signs of life in the first quarter last week against the Bulldogs before the game really got away from the in the second half.
Adelaide’s backline gave up six goals to Aaron Naughton – an ominous sign heading into this week’s game after Tom Hawkins booted six against Port last week.
The Cats defeated the Crows by 24-points at the Adelaide Oval in Round 3 last year, but it’s safe to say the margin might be a little longer this time.
Geelong are 7-3 as the line favourite over the last 12 months and they should have no trouble winning this one by plenty.
Tip: Back Geelong to Cover the Line (-37.5 Points) @ $2.00
Sunday August 23, 3:35pm, Gabba
The Lions have a real opportunity to record another huge victory against a top eight side on Sunday, but you’d be forgiven for not knowing what to make of Brisbane based on last weeks performance.
Chris Fagan’s side battled across all four quarters in their one-point win over North, so it is a little surprising to find them at such a short price in the market.
St Kilda, meanwhile, bounced back from their loss to Geelong to record a blowout victory over Essendon last week.
The Saints could potentially return to the top four if results go their way, while the Lions could take control of the ladder if Port Adelaide were to lose.
Tipping against the Lions at the Gabba, especially this year, is never wise.
The Saints struggled in Brisbane a fortnight ago against the Cats, while it is worth noting St Kilda hasn’t played the Lions at the Gabba since 2015.
Fagan won’t take last week’s poor performance lightly and the Lions should be boosted by Cam Rayner’s return.
This line does seem a little generous, but with a point to prove, the Lions look a great bet to cover.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $2.00
West Coast Eagles
Sunday August 23, 6:10pm, Optus Stadium
Only in 2020 can the Eagles win seven games in a row and still find themselves sitting fourth on the ladder.
Such is the nature of this quirky season; the Giants still find themselves in the finals hunt despite last week’s horror performance against the Swans.
A win for GWS and a Demons loss would be enough to vault the Giants back inside the top eight, while West Coast could move as high as second if results go their way.
There is still no definite news on the Toby Greene front at time of publish, which makes this game fairly easy to tip.
GWS are clearly a different team without their superstar forward on the field, as we found out when these two sides met last year in the Eagles’ 52-point win in Round 2.
West Coast should also sense the importance of this game as they prepare to fly back to Queensland for the remainder of the fixture.
The Eagles have been almost untouchable at home over the last two months and you have to like them again in this spot.
Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (-19.5 Points) @ $2.00
Monday August 24, 7:10pm, Gabba
It’s almost surprising to look up at the ladder and find Collingwood still in the top eight.
The Pies were dominated by the Dees last week in their 56-point loss, while there wasn’t a whole lot to like about their efforts against Adelaide or Sydney in the weeks prior.
Collingwood has a great chance to remain in the finals picture for another week, but they won’t want to take the Kangaroos lightly.
North nearly pulled off one of the upsets of the season last week against the Lions, a performance Rhyce Shaw’s side is sure to improve on.
The Pies’ long list of outs makes this game very interesting from a betting perspective.
Collingwood lost by double digits to North when these two sides last met and it wouldn’t shock to see the Roos put up another fight.
Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+15.5 Points) @ $2.00
It’s another six-game slate of AFL action this week as the Lions, Pies, Cats, Demons, Swans and Eagles all head for the bye, leaving a huge top eight clash to look forward to on Thursday night as the Crows host Richmond from Adelaide.
The Bombers and Hawks, both of which are vying for a spot in the eight, also prepare for what should be a Friday night thriller. The Dockers hope to keep their win streak alive at home to the Power on Saturday, while the Blues will want to keep the good times rolling following last week’s dramatic win over the Lions.
We’ve analysed all the stats and trends you need to know about, so if you’re looking to back a winner, be sure to read our entire 2019 AFL Round 13 Preview below.
Thursday June 13, 7:20pm, Adelaide Oval
It’s only fitting that the Tigers and Crows find themselves tied on points in this 2017 Grand Final rematch.
Adelaide’s triumph over GWS last week at home was capped off by a brilliant goal from the boundary by Eddie Betts, a much-needed win that sees the Crows sitting fifth on the ladder.
As for the Tigers, let’s just say Damien Hardwick has some thinking to do. Back-to-back losses to North Melbourne and Geelong in successive weeks leave Richmond in danger of slipping outside the eight, and with a trip to Adelaide ahead, it’s tough to back the Tigers as the underdog.
The Crows cut it fine against the Giants, but the stats don’t lie, Adelaide were at their best. Don Pyke’s side won the clearances and the contested possession counts by a wide margin and made the most of their inside 50 opportunities to boot 12 goals.
Injuries aside, the Tigers have been particularly poor in those departments over the last month. Not only was Richmond carved up through the midfield against Geelong, but they also rank 15th in clearances.
Richmond hasn’t won at Adelaide Oval against the Crows since 2014, so it’s no surprise to learn the Tigers are 3-4 as the away favourite against the Crows. Games away from Melbourne have always been a hindrance to the Tigers, even more so this year with a weakened backline.
Adelaide received a much-needed boost last week in the form of Josh Jenkins, who booted three goals in his return alongside Tex Walker’s pair. If those two are on, the Tigers could be in for a long day.
Tip: Back the Crows 1-39 @ $2.00
Friday June 14, 7:50pm, Marvel Stadium
Things are starting to get a little desperate for these two bitter rivals as they jaw for a spot back inside the top eight.
Hawthorn have had an extra few days to stew on their 19-point loss to the Lions during last week’s bye, while the Bombers will be hoping to make it two in a row after thumping the Blues by 41-points.
Essendon will take full confidence into this match knowing Jake Stringer and Dylan Shiel are set for a return. The Bombers have been installed as the home favourite this week, a scenario they are 6-1 in over the last 12 months.
Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson has plenty to ponder ahead of this game, but he too can take stock in the Hawks’ 4-1 record following a previous loss. Hawthorn also won both games against the Dons in Rounds 7 and 20 last year.
It’s safe to say the back line holds the winning key for both teams on Friday night. Hawthorn was demolished by the Lions in the inside 50 counts a fortnight ago, while the Bombers have currently allowed the fifth most inside ’50s to opponents.
The Hawks are still a lethal side in front of goal, evident in the fact they rank second last in behinds this season. Hawthorn are yet to win back-to-back games, but if there’s one thing they’ve shown all season long, it’s resiliency to respond to a previous loss.
Tip: Back the Hawks to Win @ $2.07
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday June 15, 1:45pm, Riverway Stadium (Townsville)
Gold Coast’s spot inside the top eight seems like a distant memory as they prepare for Saturday’s game against an equally uninspiring St. Kilda outfit.
The Suns, who have now lost eight straight games, head north to Townsville hoping to put last week’s 27-point shocker against North Melbourne behind them.
St. Kilda are also hoping to erase last fortnight’s 70-point loss to Port Adelaide in China. The Saints have won three straight games against the Suns, but if their one-point win back in Round 1 was anything to by we could be in for another thriller.
Neither coach will read too much into their previous meeting, but Alan Richardson will be asking for a little more in the fourth quarter this time around. The Saints managed just one goal between three-quarter time and the final siren back in Round 1, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to learn St. Kilda ranks second last in fourth quarters won this season.
The Saints head north as the away favourites this week, a scenario they are 3-1 in against the Suns. Given this is somewhat of a neutral ground though, there’s plenty of value to be had on the Gold Coast and their 4-1 record as the line underdog against St. Kilda.
Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+8.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday June 15, 2:35pm, Saturday June 15, 2:35pm
Fremantle and Port Adelaide return from the bye week to prepare for what could be the biggest game of their respective seasons.
Despite their two-game win streak, the Dockers still find themselves on the fringe of the top eight. Ross Lyon’s side won in controversial fashion against Collingwood a fortnight ago and now return home to face a Port Adelaide side fresh from a huge win over the Saints in China.
The Power find themselves eighth on the ladder, but they’ll need to be at their best if they wish to earn their first win in Perth since 2014. The home side has won the last six clashes, putting Fremantle’s near perfect 4-1 record at home in play.
Living up to their label as one of the more inconsistent sides in the competition this year, Port Adelaide, on the other hand, are 3-3 on the road.
The Power are also 1-5 as the road underdog in games against Fremantle, a side that has allowed the second-fewest average goals all year. Well-rested following the bye, back the Dockers to earn their spot back in the eight.
Tip: Back Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.22
Saturday June 15, 7:25pm, Marvel Stadium
A week on from the sacking of former coach Brendon Bolton, the Blues finally earned their second win of the season last week upsetting the Lions by 15-points at home.
The victory now sets up what could be a bottom of the barrel blockbuster against a Bulldogs side desperate to snap a three-game losing skid.
Luke Beveridge’s list returns well-rested following the bye with revenge on their mind. The Dogs lost by 44-points to Carlton back in Round 5, although the bookies still seem to be siding with the Westerners.
These two sides have grown familiar with one another having played three times in their last 14 games. Prior to their Round 5 clash, the Dogs had won five straight over the Blues dating back to 2015.
Since winning the Grand Final in 2016 though, the Dogs are 0-2 following the bye week. Carlton are also 2-1 as the line underdog in home games against the Bulldogs, and after last week’s gutsy fourth quarter display against the Lions, the Blues look good money to Cover.
Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sunday June 16, 3:20pm, Blundstone Arena (Hobart)
A month ago, North looked dead and buried inside the bottom eight. But after three straight wins, suddenly the Roos are a chance at making the eight.
There’s still plenty of ground to make up, and it won’t come easy this week against the third-place Giants. GWS look to rebound following last week’s 21-point loss to the Crows, a result that puts the Giants in good stead to bounce-back.
Leon Cameron’s side is a perfect 3-0 on the back of a loss this season, and you can expect the Giants to play with revenge on their mind this week following last year’s epic 43-point loss at the hands of North Melbourne in Round 9.
This time around the pair head to Tassie with the Giants listed as -12.5-point favourites. GWS are 2-0 as the away favourite against North Melbourne, and if they can find a way to get the ball over the top and inside 50 – something they failed to do last week against the Crows – the Giants should prove too strong for North’s backline.
Tip: Back GWS to Cover the Line (-12.5 Points) @ $1.90
No promises, but Round 13 should be pretty fun.
Following nearly a month of blowouts and crooked scoreboard numbers, the Lions, Pies, Bombers, Giants, Dees and Roos all take a seat this week, leaving us with a six-game slate that features three blockbuster match ups.
As always, we have analysed all six fixtures and our complete 2018 AFL Round 13 tips can be found below.
Thursday 14 June, 7:20pm, Adelaide Oval
Port 132-Dogs 75
Super tough draw for the Bulldogs this year.
Two games at Adelaide Oval? That was never going to be easy, and after falling by 37 to the Crows a month ago, it’s hard to back the Doggies after Port’s resounding win over the reigning premiers last week.
Against a Dusty-less Tigers, Port pounced all over Richmond at home. The Power have been tough to get a read on, but after Justin Westhoff booted three, we’re suddenly reminded of just how deep the talent runs in this list.
The Dogs come into this one off a bye, but their last month of footy has been miserable. That blowout loss to Adelaide was just the beginning, as the Westerners went on to lose by 35 to Collingwood and 49 to Melbourne in the following weeks.
Port’s resurgence into the Top 8 is in large part thanks to the midfield. Thrusting Chad Wingard into the midfield last week produced terrific results, while Ollie Wines’ 29-disposals proved too much for the Tigers to handle.
So far this season it’s become a case of which Dogs side will show up. They can still play like that tough, anti-social team we grew to love during their premiership run, but the bottom line remains the same: the Bulldogs just aren’t accurate enough in front of goal.
Ranking dead last in goal accuracy, the loss of Tory Dickson to a hamstring injury only further hurts their chances in this one. A lot lays on the shoulders of Brownlow Medal contender, Jackson Macrae, but he’s not enough to stop the likes of Wingard, Wines and Sam Powell-Pepper.
Back Port Adelaide To Win 1-39 @ $2.26
West Coast Eagles
Friday 15 June, 7:50pm, SCG
Swans 72-Eagles 57
Grand Final preview?
First plays third on Friday night, as the Eagles travel for the fifth time this season.
Rewinding back to Round 1, the Swans escaped Perth with a huge 29-point win, spoiling the Eagles’ debut at Optus Stadium. That was a completely different West Coast outfit, though, one missing the brilliance of Josh Kennedy.
Speaking of full forwards, maybe you’ve heard of him, Buddy Franklin? The big fella booted eight last time these two met, but again, this isn’t the same West Coast team.
The new version of the Eagles has been fierce, commanding and clutch. Only one team has scored 100-points or more on them this season, but Kennedy, Marc LeCras and Nic Naitanui combining for 10-goals a fortnight ago was a big reminder of what this talented trio can accomplish.
Not to be outdone, though, the Swans are as tough as they come. It was a rocky start to the season, but the Swans score goals at an alarming rate. Buddy looks back to full health, and Callum Sinclair is the perfect man to silence Naitanui in the ruck.
If one thing is for sure, this one is going to be high scoring. Both teams are deadly in front of the sticks, but for the first time in a long time, you can’t write the Eagles off just because they’re on the road.
Splitting the last four encounters two games apiece, the Eagles come in on the back of a bye, which could play into the Swans hands. The margin market is probably your best bet here.
Back Sydney Swans 10-19 @ $6.50
Saturday 16 June, 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium
Blues 46 - Freo 103
The Dockers were multi-killers last week. Minus Nat Fyfe, no one expected them to take down Adelaide, but after a huge fourth quarter stand, the Dockers walked away with their fifth win of the season.
Of course, it could very well be six by this time next week. At the same time, Carlton head into Round 13 off a bye, so they too will be hungry for their second win of the year.
Fremantle have won just one game away from home this season, with their last win at Etihad dating back to Round 16 against North Melbourne in 2017. Head to head, the Dockers have won four of their last five against the Blues, but Carlton will feel confident holding home ground advantage in this one.
For the Blues to win, they need to find a way to stop Brennan Cox. The young 19-year old earned a Rising Star nomination with his five-goal effort against the Crows last week, and at 193cm, he poses a real problem for the likes of Sam Rowe and Kade Simpson down back.
As for Fremantle, they need to withhold the Blues pressure. They’ve shown over the last few weeks, particularly in the third quarter, that they are a team capable of shifting momentum. The Dockers have the superior midfield, and they need to make sure they play clean footy.
On paper this game figures to be a tough one to call. Fremantle don’t always travel well, and the Blues haven’t exactly looked like they are in line for a surprising win. Best to steer clear of this market.
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 16 June, 4:35pm, Metricon Stadium
Suns 78-Saints 80
A trip to the Gold Coast couldn’t have come at a better time for the Saints.
This is a team under serious fire, and if Alan Richardson fails to produce a win this week, tempers, and coaching careers, might just reach boiling point.
St. Kilda were awful again last week, showing no heart in a 71-point drubbing at the hands of the Swans. The Saints kicked just seven goals all game, placing further fire on Richardson’s already burning hot seat.
Mind you, you can’t say much more for the Suns. Gold Coast managed just four goals against the Giants and just 26-points, leaving many to wonder where the future of this club lies. A win at home would certainly distance the Suns from a possible wooden spoon placing, but this is still a pretty awful fixture between to clubs that are going nowhere fast.
In terms of the game, it’s likely to be pretty low scoring. It’s no surprise to see the Suns and the Saints in the bottom five for total goals scored this year, but at least Tim Membrey has shown some signs of life for the Saints recently.
There’s every chance this game stays close, but given what little effort we saw from Gold Coast last week, the Saints will see this as a chance to at least give their traveling supporters something to cheer about.
Back St. Kilda To Beat The Line (-7.5 Points)
Saturday 16 June, 7:25pm, MCG
Hawks 88-Crows 32
News broke on Tuesday of Cyril Rioli’s indefinite leave back up to Darwin to spend time with family. He was unlikely to make a return to Hawthorn this week anyway, but it’s a huge loss for a Hawks side desperate to jump back into the eight.
Speaking of desperate, where to now for the Crows? Last week was a game they should have won over in Fremantle, missing three shots at goal in the final five minutes. The Crows fell to 10th on the ladder following that disaster, but a win over the Hawks would put them right back in the hunt for finals.
While many will be watching the Socceroos, this has the potential for game of the round. Hawthorn, fresh from a bye week, will be up and about with Shaun Burgoyne playing his 350th game. This is the kind of fixture tailor-made for Silk, and his recent form suggests he could be in line for a big one.
It’s crazy to think that last year’s Grand Final runner-ups could be out of finals contention with a loss on Saturday night. Resembling close to a full-squad last week in Perth, the Crows looked flat and uninspired.
It’s almost ironic that both of these clubs are playing for the right to play finals, because a finals like atmosphere is exactly what we should expect on Saturday night. That plays well into the Hawks’ hands at home, and it’s normally the kind of environment that brings out the best from this very experienced Hawthorn team.
Back Hawthorn To Win 1-39 @ $2.15
Sunday 17 June, 3:20pm, MCG
Cats 65-Tigers 83
Dusty in, blockbuster set.
Round 13 closes with another finals-like matchup between the Tigers and the Cats, the sequel to their rather disappointing qualifying final clash last season.
The Cats were easy prey for the Tigers on their way to the flag, going down by 51-points to the eventual champions.
That game was before Geelong waved their chequebook during the offseason, though, and as Gary Ablett’s 34-disposal/one goal effort last week shows, this is a totally different version of the Cats.
As for Richmond, all of a sudden the Tigers look a little toothless. Richmond’s half-strength squad was no match for the Power in Adelaide last week, and although they are still the team to beat, we’re yet to see the Tigers play a full four quarters against a team that matters.
So what does all of that leave ahead of Sunday?
Diving deeper, the Cats would certainly love to have someone like Esava Ratugolea on the field during a big game like this, but Tom Hawkins firing three goals last week was certainly a welcome sign.
Jack Riewoldt was equally as strong for the Tigers last Friday night, but a lot will be asked of the likes of Alex Rance against a Cats team that ranks second in the league in contested marks.
Both of these teams are among the leaders in goals kicked, but having limited their last three opponents to under 60-points, the Cats get the nod here.
Back Geelong To Beat The Line (+12.5 Points)
This is the final bye round of the 2017 AFL season and there are a stack of interesting games spread right across the weekend.
The unpredictability of this AFL season continued last weekend with another stack of upsets and as such there are a number of games where there is very little between the two teams in betting.
We have closely analysed every game set to take place in the AFL from Thursday and Sunday and our complete 2017 AFL Round 13 tips can be found below.
West Coast Eagles
Thursday 15 June, 8:10pm, Domain Stadium
West Coast Eagles 83 - Geelong 70
This is a crucial game for the West Coast Eagles as they have lost three games on the trot and now sit outside the top eight.
They will go into this clash with Geelong as underdogs and this is the first time that they have started a home game as underdogs in over 12 months.
West Coast have won their past three games as underdogs for a big profit and they have won eight of their past ten games in front of their home fans at Domain Stadium.
Geelong made it three big wins on the trot with their impressive victory over Adelaide before the bye and they now have themselves back in the mix of genuine premiership contenders.
The Cats have won seven of their past ten games as away favourites for a narrow loss and they are a middling 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
There really is not a great deal between these two sides, but this is getting into must-win territory for the Eagles and they simply must come away with the four points.
Back West Coast To Win @ $2.05
Friday 16 June, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne 72 - St Kilda 89
St Kilda have suffered three defeats in a row, but they will still start this clash with North Melbourne as clear favourites.
St Kilda were never able to get into the contest against Adelaide, but this is the sort of game that they have thrived in so far this season.
The Saints have won six of their past seven games as favourites and they are a team that can be trusted as the punter’s elect.
North Melbourne had their winning run ended by Richmond before they went on the bye, but they continue to surpass expectations so far this season.
The Kangaroos have won their past six games against St Kilda, but they have won only two of their past 14 games as home underdogs and they really do struggle in this situation.
This is the sort of game that St Kilda really do need to win if they are any chance of playing finals football and they should get the job done.
Back St Kilda To Win @ $1.85
Saturday 17 June, 1:45pm, MCG
Richmond 71 - Sydney 80
There is an argument to be made that this is the most interesting game of the weekend in the AFL.
Sydney made it four wins from their past five games with their impressive defeat of the Western Bulldogs and they will go into this clash as narrow favourites.
The Swans have won four of their past five games as away favourites for a clear profit and they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.
Richmond went into the bye on the back of a pair of solid wins over Essendon and North Melbourne and they now sit inside the top four.
The Tigers have won three of their past four games against Sydney and their record as home underdogs is a highly profitable 3-2.
This is a game that really could go either way and while I’ll be watching closely I am happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.
Saturday 17 June, 4:35pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide 121 - Brisbane Lions 81
Port Adelaide are easily the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend.
The Power were highly disappointing against Essendon last weekend and they are yet to beat a top eight side this season.
The Lions are far from a top eight side, but Port Adelaide have won only four of their past six games as home favourites for a loss and the line for this clash is a sizeable 55.5 points.
Brisbane recorded their second win of the season with a quality performance against Fremantle and this young side is sure to have taken plenty of confidence from that effort.
The Lions have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are 8-3 against the line in this scenario for a clear profit.
The line of 55.5 points does seem a tough excessive and it would not surprise to see the Lions string together a pair of quality performances.
Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+55.5 Points)
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 17 June, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast Suns 73 - Carlton 83
The Gold Coast Suns were excellent against Hawthorn last weekend and they will go into this clash with Carlton as clear favourites.
The win over Hawthorn gave the Suns back-to-back wins for just the third time in over 12 months and they have an excellent chance to make it three on the trot.
Gold Coast have won three of their past four games as home favourites and they are 2-2 against the line in this situation.
Carlton recorded one of the biggest upsets of the season to date to beat Greater Western Sydney last weekend, in what was a truly impressive performance.
Stringing together those sort of efforts has proven to be a problem for Carlton, but they have shown on a number of occasions this season that they have a fair amount of ability on their day.
The Blues have won just one of their past eight games as away underdogs, but they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
These are two unpredictable sides and because of that this is another game that I am happy to stay out of from a betting standpoint.
Sunday 18 June, 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs 56 - Melbourne 113
This is an outstanding way to finish a very interesting weekend in the AFL.
The Western Bulldogs made it three losses from their past four games with a horrid effort against Sydney last weekend, but they will still start this clash as favourites.
The Bulldogs have won seven of their past eight games as home favourites for a profit, but they are 3-11 against the line when giving away a start.
Melbourne came from behind to win their Queen’s Birthday Blockbuster with Collingwood and that victory moved them into the top eight.
The Demons have won three of their past eight games as away underdogs for a profit and they are a middling 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
There is plenty to like about the way that Melbourne have been playing in recent weeks and they do look a touch of value to upset this misfiring Western Bulldogs outfit.
Back Melbourne To Win @ $2.55
This is the first split round of the 2016 AFL season and Adelaide, Gold Coast, Richmond, St Kilda, Carlton and Collingwood are all on the bye.
Split rounds are a controversial part of the AFL season, but there are still a number of exciting games set to take place this weekend.
The round starts with an exciting Friday night fixture between North Melbourne and Hawthorn, while the clash between Fremantle and Port Adelaide as well as the Western Bulldogs and Geelong highlight an exciting set of games on Saturday night.
Friday 17 June, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne 84 - Hawthorn 93
North Melbourne scored an upset win over Hawthorn in 2014, but the Hawks have generally had the edge over their rivals in recent seasons and have won five of the past six games played between the two sides.
Hawthorn go into this clash on the back of three straight victories over Brisbane, Melbourne and Essendon, but this is easily the toughest challenge that they have faced since they lost to the Sydney a month ago.
The Hawks will go into this game as clear favourites and they have won 12 of their past 15 games as away favourites, while their record against the line is this scenario is a profitable 9-6.
North Melbourne received another reality check when they were no match for Geelong last weekend and they face another stiff assignment against Hawthorn this weekend.
The Kangaroos have been one of the best betting teams in the AFL in the past 12 months and they have won three of their past six games as underdogs, while they are 5-1 against the line in this scenario.
This is set to be one of the most exciting matches of the round, but the market has got the odds just about right and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 18 June, 1:40pm, The Gabba
Brisbane Lions 82 - West Coast Eagles 131
The West Coast Eagles will start this game as dominant favourites, but they head into this fixture on the back of two subpar performances.
West Coast looked set to cruise to a comfortable victory against Adelaide last weekend, but they were extremely poor in the second half and they suffered their first loss a Domain Stadium in over 12 months.
They have looked like a different team away from home this season and their betting record suggests as much – they have won just three of their past six games as away favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is a poor 2-4.
The Brisbane Lions are clearly a football club in crisis and after their woeful performance against Fremantle last weekend they have now won just three of their past 24 games.
In saying that, the Lions have generally produced their best football at The Gabba and their record against the line as home underdogs is actually a profitable 6-4.
It is tough to have a great deal of faith in the Lions, but the line of 48.5 points does seem excess against a clearly out of form West Coast Eagles side.
Recommended Bet: Back The Brisbane Lions To Beat The Line (+49.5 Points)
Saturday 18 June, 2:35pm, Domain Stadium
Fremantle 86 - Port Adelaide 69
Fremantle go into this clash on the back of their first two wins of the season, but they obviously face a much tougher task against Port Adelaide this weekend.
Fremantle were professional against both Essendon and the Brisbane Lions, but they will still go into this clash as clear underdogs and this has been a position in which they have clearly struggled in recent seasons.
The Dockers have lost 12 of their past 13 games as underdogs, while they are an extremely poor 4-9 against the line in this scenario.
Port Adelaide were denied a third straight victory by the Western Bulldogs last weekend, but they lost no admirers with their performance in what was arguably the best game of the season to date.
The Power have found a semblance of their best form in recent weeks, but they are still a tough side to trust from a betting perspective and they have won four of their past seven games as away favourites for a narrow loss.
In saying that, Port Adelaide have clearly played better football than Fremantle for the majority of this season and they are a safe bet to get the job done this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back Port Adelaide To Win @ $1.67
Saturday 18 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs 43 - Geelong 100
The Western Bulldogs have an extremely poor record against Geelong in recent seasons and they have lost 11 of the past 12 games played between the two sides, but this is still set to be one of the most competitive clashes of the weekend.
The Bulldogs made it three wins on the trot with their narrow victory over Port Adelaide in what was one of the best games of the season to date and they have now won five of their past six games.
Despite this, they will go into this clash as underdogs and this is a position in which they have not had a great deal of experience in the past 12 months – especially at Etihad Stadium.
The Bulldogs have simply an outstanding record at Etihad Stadium and they have won ten of their past 12 games as the home, while they have beaten the line in their only 2 games as home underdogs in the past 12 months.
Geelong have got their season back on track with strong wins over both Greater Western Sydney and North Melbourne in the past fortnight and they remain Premiership favourites.
They will start this games as clear favourites, but this is not a position in which they have thrived in the past 12 months – especially away from home.
Geelong have won just two of their past seven games as away favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is a truly dreadful 1-6.
This should be a thrilling game and the Western Bulldogs have every chance to record an upset victory at a quote of $2.15.
Recommended Bet: Back The Western Bulldogs To Win @ $2.15
Sunday 19 June, 1:10pm, SCG
Sydney Swans 86 - Melbourne 31
The Sydney Swans suffered a disappointing loss at the hands of their crosstown rivals last weekend and they face a potentially tricky assignment against Melbourne this weekend.
Sydney were fairly poor against Greater Western Sydney, but they will still start this clash as very short-priced favourites and they have an outstanding record against the Demons.
Sydney are generally a very safe bet as favourites and they have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites, while they are 7-4 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne returned to winning form with a very impressive performance against Collingwood on the Queen’s Birthday and they will go into this clash with plenty of confidence.
The Demons have been a very profitable team as away underdogs and they have won four of their past eight games in this situation and they are 6-2 against the line.
The market appears to have underestimated Melbourne ahead of this clash and I am more than happy to back them at the line with a start of 27.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (+27.5 Points)
Sunday 19 June, 4:40pm, Etihad Stadium
Essendon 90 - GWS Giants 117
This is the obvious mismatch of the round as Greater Western Sydney are unbackable favourites to beat Essendon this weekend.
The Giants ended their losing streak with an impressive victory over the Sydney Swans and it is almost impossible to see them losing this game.
Line betting is where the real interest will be in this fixture and this presents an issue as the Giants have beaten the line in just two of their past six games as away favourites.
The Bombers have actually beaten the line in six of their past ten games as home underdogs, but they have been beaten by some very big margins in recent weeks and they seem to be getting worse as the season continues.
My rule of not betting on Essendon matches continues this weekend!
Recommended Bet: No Bets