2020 AFL Round 2 Preview

Facebooktwittermail

Collingwood Vs Richmond

Thursday March 26, 7:20pm, MCG

Sydney Swans Vs Essendon

Friday March 27, 7:50pm, SCG

Melbourne Vs Sydney Swans

Saturday March 28, 1:45pm, MCG

Carlton Vs Western Bulldogs

Saturday March 28, 4:35pm, Marvel Stadium

Brisbane Lions Vs North Melbourne

Saturday March 28, 7:25pm, Gabba

Port Adelaide Vs Adelaide

Saturday March 28, 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval

Geelong Vs Gold Coast Suns

Sunday March 29, 1:10pm, GMHBA Stadium

St Kilda Vs West Coast

Sunday March 29, 3:20pm, Marvel Stadium

Fremantle Vs Hawthorn

Sunday March 29, 6:20pm, Optus Stadium


2019

Sorting out the contenders from the pretenders is a laborious task, but Round 2 should provide some clarity after six huge upsets last week.

It’s another pair of blockbusters as we’re treated to two finals rematches this week, but before you try and back a winner, be sure tp check out our entire 2019 AFL Round 2 Preview below.

Richmond Vs Collingwood

Thursday March 28, 7:20pm, MCG

It wasn’t the most convincing performance from the Tigers, but a strong four-goal final term saw them over the line against Carlton last week.

Collingwood weren’t disgraced in their loss to Geelong at the G’ on Friday night either, but it’s safe to say the Pies looked a little underdone through the midfield as the Cats controlled contested possession.

For Richmond, all eyes are now on Damien Hardwick as he hopes to piece together a new backline following Alex Rance’s injury. As for Collingwood, things aren’t quite as grim, but the Pies will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s blowout in the Prelim Final to get their season back on track.

If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll know these two sides met three times last year. Richmond won both regular season affairs, with all three games resulting in blowouts. The Tigers also find themselves at the shorter price on Thursday night, good news considering they are 11-1 as the home favourite against Collingwood.

Make no mistake, the Pies can win this game if they exploit Richmond’s backline much like they did last year, though. The Round 1 loss to Geelong highlighted a few problems through the midfield, but it was also a quiet night for Mason Cox, who kicked just the one goal.

Cox was monumental during the Prelim victory, and if the Pies can bomb it long over the top, he can easily turn into another game-changer. Collingwood are 4-2 as the line underdog against the Tigers, and if you throw in Jamie Elliott, who was phenomenal on return last week booting three goals, there’s no reason Collingwood can’t pull off another upset.

Tip: Back Collingwood to Cover the Line (+2.5 Points)

Sydney Swans Vs Adelaide Crows

Friday March 29, 7:50pm, SCG

Do the Swans deserve a mulligan, or is it time to throw up the red flag following last week’s 17-point loss to the Dogs?

You can ask yourself the same question when it comes to the Crows. Adelaide were supposed to dominate the Hawks, but again, Alistair Clarkson got the better of Don Pyke’s side in a 32-point shocker.

It’s only fitting these two question marks meet in Round 2, and as recent history shows, we could be in for a close one. Three of the last five games between these two have been decided by 10-points or less, and since goals came sparingly last week, don’t bank on a high-scoring affair.

As the odds suggest, the bookies appear to be having a tough time separating the two. Sydney were dominated in the contested possession count last week, but they still stormed home in the fourth quarter booting four goals.

Adelaide, well there’s a lot less to get excited about. Statistically speaking, the Crows were brilliant on paper – they won the disposals, clearances, contested possession and inside 50 count convincingly – but the Hawks lapped up the loose ball to create scoring opportunities on the other end, something the Swans also do extremely well.

Sydney are 5-5 as the home favourite over the last 12-months, and an equally ho-hum 2-2 as the home favourite against Adelaide. Things get even trickier when you factor in the Crows defeated the Swans at the SCG last year, however it’s also worth factoring in Buddy Franklin averages 2.4 goals against the Crows.

After allowing multiple goals to four different Hawthorn players last week, the Crows could be in for a long night.

Tip: Back the Swans 1-39 @ $2.24

AFL Same Game Multi

Essendon Vs St Kilda

Saturday March 30, 4:35pm, Marvel Stadium

Nothing about Essendon screamed finals last week. The Bombers were embarrassed against the Giants, falling by 72-points in what was supposed to be one of the highlight games of the round.

St. Kilda tasted a win at home over the Gold Coast, although it was hardly convincing. The Suns did themselves no favours with the boot, but to the Saints’ credit, they fought hard all day to dominate the clearances and boost the confidence of their young defence.

So what do we make of Saturday’s showdown?

These two sides met only once last year in a 43-point Essendon belting. The Bombers have won three of their last five games against the Saints, but after last week’s false start against GWS, you could argue the Bombers look a little under the odds at this price.

If the Bombers are to turn things around, they need their midfield to lift. Dyson Heppell and David Zaharakis both cracked over 20 disposals but failed to hit the score sheet, while Jake Stringer almost went unnoticed at half-forward.

The last time the Bombers started 0-2 and made the finals was 2004. Considering the Saints brought the pressure in the first half last week, we could be in for a high-scoring affair. The Total has gone Over 170-points in the last five meetings between these two, so stick with the Points market.

Tip: Back Over 178.5 Total Points

AFL Same Game Multi

Port Adelaide Vs Carlton

Saturday March 30, 5:10pm, Adelaide Oval

The Power stole the show at the MCG last week. No one gave Port Adelaide a chance to make the eight, let alone beat the Demons, but Ken Hinkley’s side relished the underdog role, piling on 12 goals to win by 26-points.

Carlton fell to the Tigers in typical fashion to open the season, but Blues fans can certainly hold their heads high. Patrick Cripps was phenomenal with 32 disposals, but the entire team put the pressure on this year’s premiership favourites for the better part of three quarters.

Now heading south, the Blues won’t find comfort in the fact they’ve lost their last two trips to Adelaide by a combined 193-points. Carlton won only one game on the road last year, and with a 1-9 record as the away underdog in 2018, don’t get too carried away with last week’s encouraging performance.

For Port Adelaide, it all comes down to quick hands. The Power dominated the disposals last week, and they were also dazzling by foot, winning the inside 50 count by a wide margin against the Dees. This will be a big test for the Blues on the road, and if the likes of Ed Curnow fail to cash-in on scoring chances again, they might be in for a long plane ride home.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.15

AFL Same Game Multi

Geelong Vs Melbourne

Saturday March 30, 7:25pm, GMHBA Stadium

It’s a rematch of last year’s elimination final, or should we say, the last time Melbourne tasted a win.

The Dees pounced on the Cats in a low-scoring affair to walk away with a 29-point win, but after last week’s sorry display against Port Adelaide, it’s tough to trust Melbourne right now.

The Dees were outmuscled, and perhaps more importantly, underdone against the Power. Max Gawn made some crucial mistakes inside 50, while the entire squad looked a little unfit in the final term allowing Port to boot two unanswered goals.

Geelong, well what can you say? The Cats looked back to their old selves against Collingwood. They knuckled down and won the contested footy, but the midfield was by far the most impressive part of the seven-point win. The Cats were precise by hand and not afraid to get a little dirty, evident in the fact they won the tackle count by a wide margin.

It goes without saying the Cats are the heavy favourites this week. Despite last week’s finals shock, Geelong have won four of the last five and are also 8-1 as the home favourite over the Dees.

Aside from the midfield last week, Gary Ablett also looked sharp booting a pair of goals. He averages 3.5 against Melbourne and given last week’s sorry display in the back line, the Cats forward pressure should be enough to earn them their first 2-0 start since 2017.

 Tip: Back the Cats 1-39 @ $2.15

AFL Same Game Multi

West Coast Eagles Vs GWS Giants

Saturday March 30, 8:10pm, Optus Stadium

West Coast were missing a few bodies against the Lions last week, but there was no excuse for the lackluster performance at The Gabba.

Not only did Adam Simpson’s side look a little unfit, they also looked uninspired after Brisbane brought the pressure in the second quarter.

The Giants, on the other hand, were at their best. Nobody expected GWS to pick apart Essendon by 72-points, especially after losing several key players during the offseason. The Giants midfield was unstoppable though, strangling the Bombers lifeless in what was one of the biggest stories to emerge from Round 1.

Looking ahead, it’s tough to get a read on this game. The Giants put up a gallant effort when they traveled to Perth last year, falling by only 11-points in Round 16. Since their inception, GWS have defeated West Coast only once out West, but if they can replicate the Lions’ performance last week and bring some pressure, there’s nothing stopping Leon Cameron’s side from winning this.

Now heading back home, it’s no surprise to find the Eagles listed as the favourite. West Coast finished 9-2 in this scenario last season and are also an impressive 3-1 as the home favourite against GWS.

If any team is worthy of a mulligan, it’s the reigning premiers. The Eagles lost back-to-back games only once last year, but it is worth keeping in mind the Giants won eight games inter-state in 2018.

This one should be close.

Tip: Back the Giants to Cover the Line (+17.5 Points) @ $1.90

AFL Same Game Multi

North Melbourne Vs Brisbane Lions

Sunday March 31, 1:10pm, Marvel Stadium

The Gabbatoir was back in full voice as the Lions made short work of the reigning premiers last week. Chris Fagan’s side might need to temper their expectations on Sunday, however – the Roos pumped the Lions by 54-points when they met in Melbourne last season.

Unfortunately, North Melbourne weren’t quite in the same form last week against Fremantle. The Roos lost by 82-points in Perth, largely due to their inability to stop Cam McCarthy in the forward line.

For Brisbane, the game plan this week is simple: apply the pressure and continue to rely on the short game. The Lions were relentless last week against the Eagles in the tackle count, and they were also lethal inside 50 relying on short, quick passes to the likes of Charlie Cameron and Lincoln McCarthy.

As for North Melbourne, they need to forget about last week. Losing key defender Ed Vickers-Willis capped off a day to forget, but the Roos can rest easy knowing they’ve won six-straight over Brisbane dating back to 2015.

Surprisingly enough, the Lions enter as the underdog this week. Brisbane finished 2-7 as the away underdog last season, but it’s worth keeping in mind the Lions often put up strong performances at Marvel Stadium.

If Brisbane can dominate the disposals and adapt to the game just like they did last week, the upset is on.

Tip: Back the Lions To Win @ $2.00

AFL Same Game Multi

Hawthorn Vs Western Bulldogs

Sunday March 31, 3:20pm, MCG

You wouldn’t know it by looking at the stat sheet, but the Hawks walked away with a 32-point win against the Crows in Adelaide last week.

Hawthorn lost just about every major statistical category, but as we’ve grown to learn over the years, you can’t doubt an Alistair Clarkson coached side with a chip on its shoulder.

The Dogs also know a thing or two about relishing the underdog role. Luke Beveridge’s side scraped home with a hard-fought 17-point win over the Swans, making this Round 2 encounter even more fascinating.

The Hawks were able to win last week by taking control of the loose ball. That opened the game up for James Worpel to pounce, while a similar story unfolded for the Dogs and Jack Macrae.

It goes without saying that the team who can control the disposals and limit the turnovers will likely win this game. The last time these sides met the Hawks annihilated the Dogs by 63-points, but that was without Macrae on the field.

Hawthorn enter this one as the rightful favourite, a scenario they are 4-1 in against the Bulldogs. Clarkson’s side won back-to-back games six times last year, while the Dogs managed to win three games in a row twice.

Still, last season counts for very little when you consider the offseason chances both clubs have endured. Since these two sides look tough to split, ride the Points market. The Total has gone Over 180-points in four of the last five games between these two.

Tip: Back Over 175.5 Total Points

AFL Same Game Multi

Gold Coast Suns Vs Fremantle

Sunday March 31, 4:40pm, Metricon Stadium

For the second week in a row the AFL has saved the worst ‘till last. If Freo’s performance last week was anything to go by though, suddenly the Dockers could be looking at a perfect 2-0 start to the season.

Fremantle, who were without key signing Jesse Hogan, got to work in the early goings against the Kangaroos to establish a whopping five goal lead by half time. The biggest storyline to emerge from the game was Cam McCarthy, who booted a career-high five goals in the 82-point victory.

The Suns were on the losing side during their opening round game against St. Kilda, but there was plenty to take away from the one-point loss. Better decisions with the boot probably would have seen Gold Coast over the line, but it was encouraging to see David Swallow boot a three-goal bag in his eighth-year with the club.

As far as Hogan is concerned, his return depends entirely on the club. The star forward is reportedly ready to go, but even without the 24-year-old, the Dockers still find themselves heavily favoured.

The Suns failed to win a single game at Metricon last year, and as the records suggest, Gold Coast haven’t defeated Fremantle since 2016. Despite the small sample size, the Dockers were 2-0 as the away favourite last season, and if Hogan does slot back into the side, it’s hard to back against the Dockers in what could be another heartbreaker for the Suns.

Tip: Back the Dockers to Win 1-39 @ $2.10

AFL Same Game Multi


2018

The opening round of the AFL season was packed full of quality and we are set for a host of big games this weekend.

There is no doubt that the highlight is the AFL Grand Final rematch between Adelaide and Richmond, while the Eastern Monday showdown between Geelong and Hawthron is always a fascinating clash.

We have closely analysed every game and our complete 2018 AFL Round 2 tips can be found below!

Adelaide Vs Richmond

Thursday 29 March, 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval

Adelaide 118 – Richmond 82

This is a rematch of the 2017 AFL Grand Final and easily the highlight of the round.

It was Richmond that scored an emphatic win at the MCG in October last year, but it is the Adelaide Crows that will start this clash as favourites once again.

Adelaide won nine of their 13 games as home favourites last season for a small loss in head-to-head betting markets, but they were able to cover the line in each of these wins.

The Crows went down to Essendon in their opening game of the season and they do go into this clash with Richmond with some genuine concerns.

Richmond came from behind to beat Carlton in the AFL season opener and the way that they were able to respond when they were challenged was impressive.

Winning away from home was not an issue for Richmond last season and they have won four of their past seven games as away underdogs for a big profit, while they are 6-1 against the line in this scenario.

There really is not a great deal between these two teams – especially with the Crows slightly undermanned – and the Tigers offer great value at their current price of $2.40.

Back Richmond To Win @ $2.40

North Melbourne Vs St Kilda

Friday 30 March, 4:20pm, Etihad Stadium

North Melbourne 95 – St Kilda 43

St Kilda are one of the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend.

St Kilda were given a scare for the Brisbane Lions, but they were able to respond to the challenge when it mattered.

The Saints have now won eight of their past nine games as favourites and they generally get the job done when the market expects them to, but they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

The conditions at Cazaly Oval did make it tough for North Melbourne in their season opener against the Gold Coast Suns, but there is no hiding the fact that they produced a lacklustre effort.

North Melbourne have won only four of their past 16 games as underdogs, but they are 9-7 against the line when being given a start.

The Kangaroos are a better side than their round 1 performance suggests and it would not surprise if they were able to give St Kilda a genuine scare in this encounter.

Back North Melbourne To Cover The Line (+19.5 Points)

Carlton Vs Gold Coast Suns

Saturday 31 March, 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium

Carlton 67 – Gold Coast Suns 101

This is the shortest-priced that Carlton have started a game for sometime.

They were not able to come away with the victory, but Carlton gained plenty of admirers with the way that they performed in the season opener against the Richmond and with Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow they have two of the most impressive young players in the game.

Carlton did not start a single game as home favourites last season and they did lost to the Gold Coast Suns when the two sides met at Etihad Stadium before they beat their rivals at Metricon Stadium later in the year.

Gold Coast started their season with a hard-fought win over North Melbourne and the fact they were able to hold their nerve in the wet conditions is a positive for what has generally been an immature side.

Winning away from home was very tough for the Suns last season and they lost all nine of their games as away underdogs, while they were 2-7 against the line in this scenario.

The real value in this clash lies in the Total Points betting market and it is the Under that really does appeal.

Carlton deserve to go into this clash as favourites, but there is no real value at their current price and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

Collingwood Vs GWS Giants

Saturday 31 March, 4:35pm, MCG

Collingwood 79 – GWS Giants 95

The GWS Giants started their season with a very impressive win over the Western Bulldogs and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

Greater Western Sydney leapt out of the blocks in their season opener and produced a far more complete performance than they did in the majority of their wins last season.

The Giants did struggle away from home somewhat last season and they won only four of their nine games as away favourites, while they were 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

Collingwood were fairly poor in their opening game of the season against Hawthorn and the pressure on Nathan Buckley is already starting to mount once again.

The Magpies won only one of their four games as home underdogs last season, but they were 3-1 against the line in this scenario and they did give the Giants a genuine scare last season.

This is the sort of game that Collingwood performed well in last season and it definitely would not surprise if this game is closer than the betting market suggests.

Back Collingwood To Cover The Line (+18.5 Points)

Brisbane Lions Vs Melbourne

Saturday 31 March, 7:25pm, The Gabba

Brisbane 74 – Melbourne 100

The pressure will be on the Melbourne Football Club in a big way if they are unable to beat the Brisbane Lions this weekend.

Melbourne cost themselves victory with poor kicking and poor decision making – highlighted by Max Gawn’s shank – against Geelong and they are a club that definitely still has some mental demons – pardon the pun.

The Demons won only two of their four games as away favourites last season for a clear loss and they were 1-3 against the line in this scenario.

Brisbane may have gone down to St Kilda last weekend, but they were far from disgraced and for the majority of the contest they were the better side.

The problem for the Lions is that they continue to have flat periods during games and they are not capable of running out a strong four quarters.

The Lions won only two of their nine games as home underdogs last season and they were 3-6 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market looks to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

Fremantle Vs Essendon

Saturday 31 March, 8:10pm, Optus Stadium

Fremantle 106 – Essendon 90

There was plenty to like about Essendon’s win over Adelaide last Friday Night and they will start this clash with Fremantle as clear favourites.

Essendon are a team that definitely have the potential to take a big step forward this season and if they are going to do that they can’t afford to drop games like this one.

The Bombers won only four games away from home last season and they were 2-2 as home favourites, while they have not beaten Fremantle in Perth since 2013.

Fremantle were no match for Port Adelaide in their opening game of the season and it doesn’t get any easier for them against the Bombers.

The Dockers won only one of their past six games as home underdogs last season and they were a poor 2-4 against the line in this situation.

This is a game that Essendon should be able to win comfortably and the line of 11.5 points will not be anywhere near enough.

Back Essendon To Beat The Line (-11.5 Points)

Western Bulldogs Vs West Coast Eagles

Saturday 31 March, 4:20pm, Etihad Stadium

Western Bulldogs 70 – West Coast 121

Both these teams heading into the second round of the season on the back of fairly heavy losses in Round 1.

The Western Bulldogs were very poor against Greater Western Sydney, but they will still go into this clash with the West Coast Eagles as clear favourites.

The Bulldogs were a losing betting side across just about every metric last season and they covered the line in only two of their seven games as home favourites for a clear loss.

West Coast were simply unable to contain Lance Franklin against the Sydney Swans last Sunday and ‘Buddy’ proved to be the difference between the two sides.

The Eagles were able to win three of their seven games as away underdogs last season and they were a profitable betting play against the line in this situation.

I really don’t think that there is a great deal between these two sides and West Coast are a good bet to cover the line with a start of 7.5 points.

Back West Coast Eagles To Cover The Line (+7.5 Points)

Sydney Swans Vs Port Adelaide

Sunday 1 April, 5:40pm, SCG

Sydney 71 - Port Adelaide 94

This is one of the matches of the weekend between two sides that will be genuine Premiership contenders this season.

Lance Franklin led the Sydney Swans to a big win over West Coast in their opening game of the season and the Swans are going to be very difficult to beat with Franklin in that sort of form.

Sydney won eight of their ten games as home favourites last season and they were an impressive 7-3 against the line in this scenario.

Port Adelaide recorded a comfortable win over Fremantle in their season opener, but they do face a much tougher challenge against the Swans.

The Power won only one of their four games as away underdogs last season and they were 2-2 against the line in this situation.

Sydney have won five of their past six games against Port Adelaide and they can continue their strong record against their rivals in this clash.

Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-16.5 Points)

Geelong Vs Hawthorn

Monday 2 April, 4:20pm, MCG

Geelong 117 - Hawthorn 118

The traditional Easter Monday showdown between these two teams is always an epic and that should be the case again in 2018.

Geelong survived a late scare against Melbourne to start their season with a win and they will likely be buoyed by the return of Patrick Dangerfield for this clash.

The Cats were a tough team to trust from a betting perspective last season and they were a losing betting propositions – they covered the line in only five of their 14 games as the punter’s elect.

Hawthorn started their season with a comfortable win over Collingwood and there were plenty of positives to take from that performance.

The Hawks won three of their seven games last season for a big profit and backing them against the line in that situation was also a profitable betting play.

Geelong have definitely had the upper hand over Hawthorn in these Easter Monday fixtures, but there is rarely much between the two sides and it would not surprise if this is another very tight affair.

Back Hawthorn To Beat The Line (+9.5 Points)


2017

We could not have asked for a more exciting start to the AFL and we are back with our 2017 AFL Round 2 tips.

There were plenty of upsets in the opening round of the AFL season and that makes for several exciting games this weekend.

The action gets underway on Thursday night when Richmond host Collingwood, but the highlight is sure to be on Friday night when the Western Bulldogs and Sydney Swans do battle in a Grand Final rematch.

Richmond Vs Collingwood

Thursday 30 March, 7:20pm, MCG

Richmond 99 - Collingwood 80

Collingwood went down to the Western Bulldogs in their season opener, but they are still set to start this clash with Richmond as narrow favourites.

They may have lost to the Western Bulldogs, but there were still plenty of positives to come out of the performance of Collingwood.

It is still somewhat of a surprise that they will start this clash as favourites and they have won only four of their past eight games as the punter’s elect.

Richmond got the 2017 AFL season underway with a highly impressive performance against Carlton and the way that they were able to move the football really was a sight to behold.

The Tigers have actually had the upper hand on Collingwood in recent seasons and they have won four of the past five games played between the two sides.

Stringing together back-to-back wins has been a problem for Richmond, but I really was taken by their opening round performance and if they can repeat that effort they will be too strong for Collingwood at a nice price.

Back Richmond To Win @ $2.05

Western Bulldogs Vs Sydney Swans

Friday 31 March, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium

Western Bulldogs 110 - Sydney 87

This rematch of the 2016 AFL Grand Final is set to be an absolute ripper.

The Western Bulldogs outlasted Collingwood to start their premiership defence with a win and they will go into this clash as narrow favourites.

Injuries were an issue throughout the regular season for the Western Bulldogs last year and that has already been the case again in 2017 as Dale Morris will miss the next couple of months due to a fractured leg.

There is still plenty to like about the Western Bulldogs heading into this clash.

They have won their past three games against Sydney and they are 6-1 as home favourites, while they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

The Sydney Swans started their season with a disappointing loss at the hands of Port Adelaide and the pressure will be on early if they make an 0-2 start to the season.

Sydney suffered back-to-back defeats just once last season and there is every chance that they will be able to return to winning form this weekend.

The Swans have won their past three games as away underdogs for a big profit and they really are a team that can never be ruled out of contention.

There is nowhere near as much between these two sides as the current market suggests and the Swans are one of the best bets of the weekend at their current price.

Back Sydney To Win @ $2.45

Hawthorn Vs Adelaide Crows

Saturday 1 April, 1:45pm, MCG

Hawthorn 89 - Adelaide 113

Hawthorn suffered an opening round defeat at the hands of Essendon and it is the Adelaide Crows that will go into this clash as clear favourites.

The new era at Hawthorn did not get off to the most promising start, but it is fair to say that the majority of the side will improve on their first round performance.

Hawthorn only started four games as underdogs last season and they won two of them for a narrow profit, while they were 3-1 against the line in this scenario.

The Adelaide Crows stamped themselves as genuine premiership contenders with their round one victory over the Greater Western Sydney Giants, but whether they can replicate that performance at the MCG is the question.

Adelaide have won five of their past six games as away favourites, but they are only 3-3 against the line in this scenario and they have lost their past seven games against Hawthorn.

This is another game where there really is nothing between the two sides and the Hawks do offer genuine value at the current odds of $2.15.

Back Hawthorn To Win @ $2.15

GWS Giants Vs Gold Coast Suns

Saturday 1 April, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium

GWS Giants 160 - Gold Coast Suns 58

Very different things are expected of the AFL’s youngest franchises this season, but both come into this clash on the back of opening round defeats.

It should come as no surprise that the Greater Western Sydney Giants will start this clash as clear favourites and they are actually the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend.

The Giants were out-enthused by the Adelaide Crows last weekend and that defeat should be a wake-up call that they can’t just turn up and expect to win this season.

Greater Western Sydney were not flawless as home favourites last season and they lost three of their nine games in that scenario, but they were 6-3 against the line when giving away a start.

There was a fair bit of hype surrounding the Gold Coast Suns in the pre-season, but as has become customary, they disappointed.

The Suns could not have been slower out of the blocks if they had tried against the Brisbane Lions and a repeat of that effort would see the Giants record a massive win.

Gold Coast have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

The Giants covered the line in five of their eight games when giving away a start of over 37 points last season and it would not surprise to see them put up a big score this weekend.

Back Greater Western Sydney To Beat The Line (-37.5 Points)

Brisbane Lions Vs Essendon

Saturday 1 April, 7:25pm, The Gabba

Brisbane Lions 84 - Essendon 111

The Brisbane Lions and Essendon did battle for the wooden spoon last season, but based on their opening round performances that will not be the case this season.

The Chris Fagan era got off to a very positive start for the Lions and they showed a fight against the Suns that had been lacking for a number of seasons.

They will still go into this clash as clear underdogs and they have not recorded back-to-back wins for over 12 months.

It was a fairytale return for the suspended Essendon Bombers players last weekend and they were nothing short of outstanding against Hawthorn.

Essendon have looked very strong in both the JLT Challenge and the opening round of the series and a repeat of those efforts would make them far too strong for the Lions this weekend.

Back Essendon To Beat The Line (-15.5 Points)

West Coast Eagles Vs St Kilda

Saturday 1 April, 7:40pm, Domain Stadium

West Coast Eagles 116 - St Kilda 97

The West Coast Eagles won as expected in round one and they will go into this clash with St Kilda as dominant favourites.

West Coast ran over the top of North Melbourne last weekend and they really were at their high-scoring best to start the season.

The Eagles have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are 8-3 against the line in this scenario, while they have won their past seven games against St Kilda.

St Kilda had the chance to make a winning start to the season, but they went down to Melbourne in what could prove a crucial defeat come September.

The Saints really have struggled against West Coast in recent years and they were a losing betting proposition as away underdogs last season.

West Coast can put up another big score against St Kilda and comfortably cover the line of 33.5 points.

Back West Coast To Beat The Line (-33.5 Points)

Geelong Vs North Melbourne

Sunday 2 April, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium

Geelong 112 - North Melbourne 111

The market suggests that the battle of the Scott Brothers will be very one-sided in 2017.

Geelong recorded a professional win over Fremantle last weekend and it is no surprise that they will go into this clash with North Melbourne as clear favourites.

The Cats won 15 of their 21 games as home favourites last season, but they were only 9-12 against the line in this scenario and they were often overrated by the market.

North Melbourne ran out of puff late against the West Coast Eagles, but there were still some positives to take out of that performance.

The Kangaroos had a serious problem winning as underdogs last season – they failed to do it in nine games and they were only 2-7 against the line when receiving a start.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out of this clash from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

Melbourne Vs Carlton

Sunday 2 April, 3:20pm, MCG

Melbourne 86 - Carlton 64

Melbourne have not started many games as dominant favourites over the past decade, but that is the exact position that they are in this weekend.

The Demons got their campaign off to a perfect start with a strong win over St Kilda and if they are serious about playing finals football in 2017 they really should prove too good for Carlton.

Melbourne did win four of their five games as home favourites last season and they were 3-2 against the line in this scenario.

Carlton scored plenty of points in their opening round loss to Richmond, but their defence has definitely gone backwards this season and Richmond were able to move the ball at will.

The Blues did win five of their 17 games last season as underdogs for a big profit, but it is tough to back them off the back of their opening round performance.

Melbourne should win this game comfortably, but the line does look just about right and this is another game that I am happy to stay out of from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

Port Adelaide Vs Fremantle

Sunday 2 April, 4:40pm, Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide 145 - Fremantle 56

Port Adelaide got their season off to a flyer with a win over Sydney and they head into this clash with the Fremantle Dockers as clear favourites.

It is fair to say that Port Adelaide were one of the most impressive teams in the opening round of the season, but consistency was their big problem last season and they won just three of their nine games on the back of a win.

The Power won only three of their five games as home favourites last season, but they did beat the line in all three of their wins.

Fremantle were disappointing against Geelong last week and based on that performance it could be another long season for Dockers fans.

The Dockers failed to win a single game as away underdogs last season and they are 2-7 against the line in that scenario.

I don’t really want to back either side in this clash, but the Under does stand out in Total Points betting.

Both these sides were heavy Unders sides last season and they will struggle to cover the Total Points line of 180.5 points.

Back Under 180.5 Points


2016

Some of the biggest rivalries in the AFL will be reignited in round two of the 2016 AFL season.

The round starts on Friday night when Collingwood and Richmond do battle in a blockbuster at the MCG before Adelaide face Port Adelaide in the 40th edition of Showdown on Saturday afternoon.

The highlight of Sunday’s fixtures is the 2015 Grand Final rematch between Hawthorn and the West Coast Eagles at the MCG.

Collingwood Vs Richmond

Friday 1 April, 7:50pm, MCG

Collingwood 87 - Richmond 86

I had high hopes for Collingwood heading into their round 1 encounter against Sydney and boy did they let me down.

The Magpies were truly horrid and to make matters worse they loss Dane Swan for half the season with a very nasty leg injury.

Richmond were very slow out of the blocks against Carlton and they played some very average football for the three quarters, but they managed to get the job done in the end and they are favourites to win again this weekend.

The Tigers have proven a very safe bet as favourites in the past 12 months, but their record against the line in this scenario isn’t great and they have lost two of their past eight games against Collingwood.

Collingwood don’t win many games as underdogs, but they are 7-4 against the line with a start in the past 12 months and I think that this will be a closer game than betting suggests.

Recommended Bet: Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)

Adelaide Vs Port Adelaide

Saturday 2 April, 1:15pm, Adelaide Oval

Adelaide 144 - Port Adelaide 86

The Showdown is easily one of the most heated rivalries in the AFL and there is never any love lost between these two sides.

The Adelaide Crows were run over late by North Melbourne in  the opening round of the season, while Port Adelaide survived a scare against St Kilda to start their season with a win.

Port Adelaide are set to start as favourites here and that has been a position in which they have struggled in the past 12 months as they are 7-11 against the line as the punters elect.

Both sides play well at the Adelaide Oval, so that advantage is neutralized, and the Adelaide Crows are an even 6-6 against the line as underdogs.

This should be a ripper of a contest, but the market looks just about right from a betting perspective and I am happy to sit back and enjoy the action.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Essendon Vs Melbourne

Saturday 2 April, 2:10pm, MCG

Essendon 80 - Melbourne 67

Essendon were as hapless as expected against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend and it is clear that it will take several weeks before they will be able to be competitive against even the worst teams in the competition.

Melbourne gave their fans plenty of hope for a big season with their fighting victory over the Greater Western Sydney Giants in round 1 and I don’t think I was born the last time that the Demons started as a $1.11 favourite.

There is obviously not a lot of data available for games involving Melbourne as favourites and they are 1-2 in both head-to-head as well as against the line.

However, this was not against a side missing as many start players as Essendon and if the Demons are serious about being legitimate top eight contenders then they really should record a big win here.

I’ll stick to my pledge to avoid betting on Essendon games until at least a month, but if the Demons score a big win I might have to reassess that rule in round 3.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Brisbane Lions Vs North Melbourne

Saturday 2 April, 3:35pm, The Gabba

Brisbane Lions 83 - North Melbourne 117

It looks as though it could be another long season for Brisbane Lions fans after they suffered a big first round loss at the hands of the West Coast Eagles.

North Melbourne were far from perfect in their open round encounter with the Adelaide Crows and there is still plenty of improvement in front of them, but they were still able to come away with the four points.

The Kangaroos have proven a very safe bet as away favourites in recent seasons and they are 5-2 against the line in this scenario in the past 12 months, while the Brisbane Lions are 7-12 against the line as underdogs across the same period.

North Melbourne could have beaten Adelaide by plenty if they had taken advantage of their inside 50s last weekend and it would not surprise to see them record a very big win over the Lions this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (-26.5 Points)

St Kilda Vs Western Bulldogs

Saturday 2 April, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

St Kilda 36 - Western Bulldogs 93

The Western Bulldogs started where they left off last season with a very impressive win over the Fremantle Dockers and they have an excellent chance to start the season with two wins.

The Bulldogs were nothing short of outstanding against the Dockers and a similar performance could see them run up a very big score against St Kilda this weekend.

St Kilda were good for the majority of their round 1 encounter, but they were unable to go with Port Adelaide when they stepped up a gear and that could be the case against this weekend.

The Bulldogs are 6-6 against the line as favourites in the past 12 months and St Kilda are 9-12 as underdogs across the same period, so I’m not keen to back either team to beat the line, but the total points market does appeal.

Both these teams were unders sides in 2015 – despite the Western Bulldogs reputation for aggressive football – and it would not surprise if the Bulldogs were able to keep St Kilda to a very low score this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back The Under (188.5 Points)

Fremantle Vs Gold Coast Suns

Saturday 2 April, 4:40pm, Domain Stadium

Fremantle 100 - Gold Coast Suns 126

Fremantle were very poor against the Western Bulldogs in the opening round of the AFL season and they face a tough challenge against a Gold Coast Suns side that did the job against Essendon.

This is obviously a much tougher test for the Suns, but they will be buoyed by the brilliant performance of Gary Ablett in round 1 as well as their strong performance against the Dockers last season.

The Dockers have lost just two of their past 19 games as favourites and they are a narrow winning proposition against the line as the punters elect.

In contrast, the Gold Coast Suns have not won a game away from home as underdogs in the past 12 months and they are are a horrid 2-7 against the line in this scenario.

I expect Fremantle to bounce back this weekend and at their best they will cover the line of 34.5 points without any problems.

Recommended Bet: Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (-34.5 Points)

GWS Giants Vs Geelong

Sunday 3 April, 1:10pm, Spotless Stadium

GWS Giants 89 - Geelong 76

Geelong have been the talk of the AFL world following their Easter Monday victory over Hawthorn and their is no doubt that new recruit Patrick Dangerfield is the man of the moment.

The Cats’ new-look midfield was outstanding against the Hawks and it is no surprise that they have come up such short favourites here.

GWS had the perfect opportunity to start their season with a win over the Melbourne Demons, but they fell apart in the final quarter and lose the type of game that they can’t afford to lose if they want to play finals.

The Giants have only won one game as underdogs in the last 12 months and they are middling in this scenario, but the Cats have even even poor record against the line as favourites in the past 12 months.

Geelong were able to shut down Hawthorn effectively and I expect them to do the same this weekend, which makes the Under in total points markets really stand out.

The under saluted in almost 60 percent of Greater Western Sydney Giants games last year and less than 181.5 points is a good betting play.

Recommended Bet: Back The Under (-181.5 Points)

Hawthorn Vs West Coast Eagles

Sunday 3 April, 3:20pm, MCG

Hawthorn 99 - West Coast Eagles 53

This will is a rematch of the 2015 AFL Grand Final. The West Coast Eagles beat the Hawks in the opening week of the 2015 AFL Finals and went into the Grand Final with plenty of confidence, but Hawthorn dominated from start to finish to win their third straight flag in comprehensive fashion.

The West Coast Eagles were far too good for the Brisbane Lions last weekend, they face a much tougher challenge against a Hawthorn side that will be smarting following their round 1 defeat against Geelong.

West Coast are currently narrow favourites in the Grand Final rematch and they have an excellent record as punters elect at home, but have actually been a losing betting proposition as favourites away from.

Hawthorn did not start a single game as underdogs this season and they went 6-6 against the line in home fixtures.

The Hawks will be without Luke Hodge and that is a genuine concern, but it is hard to let the Hawks go around as underdogs without my support.

Recommended Bet: Back Hawthorn To Win @ $2

Carlton Vs Sydney Swans

Sunday 3 April, 4:40pm, Etihad Stadium

Carlton 71 - Sydney Swans 131

The Brendon Bolton era at Carlton did not start with a victory, but they gave their supporters reason to be optimistic with an exciting performance, while the Sydney Swans were nothing short of ruthless against Collingwood.

Sydney have been slow starters in recent seasons, but that wasn’t the case last weekend and they embarrassed a disappointing Collingwood side.

The Swans are very short-priced favourites ahead of this fixture and it will be line betting that offers the only real value here.

Sydney have not lost a game as away favourites in the past 12 months and they are 4-2 against the line in that scenario, while Carlton have been a losing betting proposition in just about every metric.

A repeat of round 1 would see Sydney score a very big win over Carlton and I am confident that they can cover the line with a start of 36.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back Sydney To Beat The Line (-36.5 Points)