It’s all about the top of the table this week as the hard-court action tips off on Thursday between the Taipans and the Wildcats.
The headline game comes on Saturday as Melbourne and Sydney get together in another all-important top four clash, followed by what should be a telling game between the Phoenix and the Taipans on Sunday.
The top four is still wide open and there are three huge even money games to get around this week.
Don’t know who to back? We’ve done all the hard work for you in our complete 2019 NBL Round 11 Preview below.
Thursday, December 12, 7:30pm, Cairns Convention Centre
It’s a top four clash to kick off Round 11 this week as the Taipans and the Wildcats both put their respective winning streaks on the line.
Cairns has rebounded strongly after a rough start to the season to win three games on the trot. The Taipans pulled off a huge upset win over the ladder leading Kings last week to improve to 7-7, and with home-court advantage this week, Cairns should feel good about its chances.
It’s also been business as usual in Perth as the Wildcats have won back-to-back games. Trevor Gleeson’s side enjoyed a big weekend last week with their own win over Sydney before handing South East Melbourne a 10-point loss.
There is enormous value head-to-head in the market, especially when you factor in the Taipans’ three-game winning streak over the Wildcats. Perth are also 4-6 straight-up as the away underdog over the last 12-months and 2-5 in the same scenario on the road against Cairns, so take the value on offer for the Taipans.
Tip: Back the Taipans to Win @ $1.75
S.E. Melbourne Phoenix
Friday, December 13, 7:30pm, Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Fifth plays sixth on Saturday in an afternoon blockbuster between two sides hoping to turn things around.
South East Melbourne’s 10-point loss to Perth last week marked the Phoenix’s fourth defeat in their last five games. As a result, our bookmakers are favouring the 36ers by -3.5 with home-court advantage – but if you’ve caught a glimpse of Adelaide recently, you’ll know wins are far from a guarantee.
The 36ers also lost last week in blowout fashion to Melbourne United on the road. Adelaide leads the league in field-goal percentage, but their lack of offensive rebounds continues to cause problems.
These two teams have met twice already this year earning one win apiece. Both games have been decided by double-digits, which isn’t surprising considering both teams rank inside the top three in points-per-game.
South East Melbourne’s recent run is hardly convincing, but their 3-1 record as the away underdog at the line certainly is. Adelaide is yet to hold an opponent to under 90-points at home this year, so take the Phoenix to keep this close.
Tip: Back the Phoenix to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.92
Saturday, December 14, 5:30pm, Melbourne Arena
This is a big game with even bigger implications as the first-place Kings travel south to face third-place Melbourne United.
Sydney will be eager to bounce-back from a very disappointing weekend after losing consecutive games to Perth and Cairns. The Kings’ sudden scoring drought came as a surprise as they failed to put up 100-points in both games, but with so much class and experience on the roster, you can expect plenty of fight from Sydney this week.
Melbourne heads into this game fresh from a 22-point win over the 36ers last week hoping to inch closer to the second-place Wildcats. United has won three of their last five games against Sydney, including seven straight home games dating back to 2016.
These sides met only a month ago at Melbourne Arena in United’s narrow three-point victory. The Kings sought revenge in Sydney a fortnight ago with a 10-point win, but you’re still better off sticking with the home side in this one.
United owns a very impressive 13-5 record as the home favourite against Sydney which is almost impossible to argue with. The Kings should keep this one to single digits but take the value on offer for Melbourne.
Tip: Back Melbourne United to Win @ $1.75
Saturday, December 14, 8pm, RAC Arena
It’s a quick turnaround back to Perth for the Wildcats on Saturday as they host a struggling Bullets team.
We should know more about the Wildcats following Thursday’s game against the Taipans, but as far as Brisbane goes, it’s worth noting the Bullets have managed only two wins from their eight road games so far.
You have to rewind back to 2017 to find the Bullets’ last win over the Wildcats in Perth, which explains the long odds on offer for a Brisbane upset.
Perth, on the other hand, holds a convincing 10-4 record as the line favourite at home over the last 12 months, so take the Wildcats to add further misery to Brisbane’s season.
Tip: Back the Wildcats to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) @ $1.80
New Zealand Breakers
Sunday, December 15, 3pm, Spark Arena
It’s a big travel week for the 36ers as they travel from Adelaide to New Zealand on a day’s rest.
Like they have all season, the Breakers come into this as the heavy favourites with home-court advantage hoping to build on last weeks win over the Bullets.
At 4-9, time is quickly running out for New Zealand to move up the standings, but with a steady 4-3 record at home this year, there’s every chance the Breakers inch closer to .500.
Adelaide’s last trip to New Zealand resulted in a 114-107 win back in February. The 36ers are a dangerous side capable of scoring points in a hurry, but their 3-5 record on the road this year leaves a lot to be desired.
With little rest after a big home game against the Phoenix on Friday, this one isn’t worth overcomplicating. The last three games between these two sides have been decided by 10-points or less, so take the Breakers at some value.
Tip: Back the Breakers 1-10 @ $2.50
S.E. Melbourne Phoenix
Sunday, December 15, 5pm, Melbourne Arena
The Phoenix and the Taipans meet for the first time on Sunday with both teams playing on little rest.
South East Melbourne returns home from a trip to Adelaide hoping to find some winning form, while the Taipans head into Round 11 on a three-game losing streak ahead of Thursday’s home game against Perth.
We’ll know a little more about how these two teams have pulled up from their opening round clashes, but as far as the market is concerned, take your pick.
The bookies are narrowly siding with the Phoenix here at -1.5, although it is worth noting South East Melbourne has covered the line only twice in their five games as the home favourite against the spread.
Cairns, meanwhile, has been a steady betting play as the line underdog on the road recently. The Taipans are 9-6 in this scenario over the last 12 months, so take Cairns to show the Phoenix how its done.
Tip: Back the Taipans to Cover the Line (+1.5 Points) @ $1.90
Monday, December 16, 7:30pm, WIN Entertainment Centre
The bookies have installed the Hawks as a $3.00 pop this week as they return home to face Melbourne without LaMelo Ball.
Illawarra’s season was already in strife sitting at the very bottom of the ladder at 3-10. Now without their star player, it might be a long time between wins for Matt Finn’s side.
If there is one piece of good news for the Hawks its that Melbourne comes into this game on short rest following Saturday’s game against the Kings. United’s last visit to the Win Centre resulted in an 87-81 defeat last month, but it’s doubtful we see the same kind of result this time around.
United has really clicked into gear now leading the league in points-per-game as well as the highest three-point shooting percentage. Considering the Hawks rank dead last in both of those categories, this one is kind of a no-brainer.
Tip: Back Melbourne 11+ @ $2.50
The NBL swings into Round 11 with plenty on the line after the ladder was turned upside down last week.
All of a sudden it’s the Sydney Kings who look the team to beat, but they’ll have to prove themselves on Saturday against the Bullets at home.
It’s only a short round, but Brisbane will be the busiest team with two games across three days.
We’ve previewed everything you need to know, and our complete 2018/2019 NBL Round 11 Preview can be found below.
Saturday December 29, 2:50pm, Qudos Bank Arena
Despite falling to Melbourne last week, Sydney’s big win over the Taipans was enough to secure top spot on the ladder over Perth.
Not surprisingly, the Kings enter this one at short odds with home-court advantage on their side as well as a strong 6-2 record as the home favourites over the last 12 months.
The Bullets will fancy themselves in this one however, especially following a seven-point home win over the Wildcats last week. Brisbane are inching closer and closer to the Top 3, and their 2-2 record as the road underdog against Sydney suggests they are a chance.
Unfortunately, Brisbane have done it tough against the Kings in recent years. The Bullets have lost three straight games dating back to 2017, which gives the Kings plenty of value at the line.
Tip: Back the Kings to Cover The Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.95
New Zealand Breakers
Sunday December 30, 2:50pm, Titanium Security Arena
The 36ers held on for a huge two-point win over Melbourne United on Boxing Day to earn themselves a third straight win.
It was a big victory for Adelaide in terms of ladder implications, and if all things go their way this weekend, the 36ers could easily leapfrog Brisbane for the fourth spot in the standings.
The likelihood of that scenario playing out are increasingly high considering Adelaide square off against a Breakers side that has been on the wrong end of the scoreboard for much of the year.
Give New Zealand credit, they have managed to string together two-straight wins, but their 3-9 record as the away underdogs over the last 12 months makes them almost un-backable.
Instead, look for a big performance from the up and about 36ers after shooting close to 60% from the field on Wednesday.
Tip: Back the 36ers by 11+ @ $4.00
Monday December 31, 5:20pm, WIN Entertainment Centre
Illawarra treated their fans to an early Christmas present last weekend defeating the Wildcats by four points.
The Bullets also earned a win over Perth last week by the same margin, which makes this Monday afternoon game even more exciting.
The Hawks have won four of their last six games against the Bullets, but still find themselves as the slight underdogs this week. Illawarra are 3-2 as the home underdog, while Brisbane are only 1-4 as the favourite over the last 12 months.
This game looks tough to read from a betting perspective considering how up and down each of these sides have been this year. With Brisbane two days removed from their Saturday clash against the Kings however, the Hawks should have the fresh legs to get the job done.
Tip: Back the Hawks To Win @ $2.15
Monday December 31, 7:50pm, Cairns Convention Centre
The Taipans’ miserable season continued over the weekend with losses to the 36ers and the Kings, leaving Cairns with just one win to their name.
The wooden spoon looks very likely for the Taipans from here, but Perth’s fall from grace is far more concerning.
After securing a commanding lead atop the ladder, the Wildcats fell to the Hawks and the Bullets last week to relinquish first place to the Sydney Kings.
Even so, the bookies are all in on a Perth bounce back this weekend. The Wildcats are 19-11 as the favourites vs. Cairns, and should have no trouble making shots from the field against one of the worst defences in the league.
Tip: Back the Wildcats 1-10 @ $2.60
There is no break for Christmas in the NBL and the action continues right up to the big day.
It is a particularly busy period for the Adelaide 36ers and they will be in action twice against both Melbourne United and the Adelaide 36ers.
We have analysed every game set to take place in the NBL this weekend and our complete NBL Round 11 tips can be found below!
New Zealand Breakers
Thursday December 21, 7:30pm, Qudos Bank Arena
It is the Sydney Kings that will go into this clash as narrow favourites.
Sydney ended their losing streak with a big win over the Cairns Taipans, but they are still a tough team to trust from a betting standpoint.
They have won five of their past 11 games as home favourites and they are 4-7 against the line in this scenario.
The New Zealand Breakers have hit a form slump and they have now won only one of their past five games, but they should still prove too strong for Sydney.
New Zealand have won seven of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a big profit and they are 9-2 against the line in this situation.
The Breakers can return to winning form and they are excellent value at their current price.
Back New Zealand To Win @ $2
Friday December 22, 7:30pm, Hisense Arena
Melbourne United have won three of their past four games and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
Hisense Arena has been something of a fortress for Melbourne United this season and they have won nine of their past 12 games as home favourites for a big profit, while they have covered the line in each of these wins.
The Adelaide 36ers have been nowhere near as strong away from home as they were last season, but they have still won four of their past five games.
Adelaide have won five of their past ten games as away underdogs, but they are only a middling 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne have won five of their past six games against Adelaide and they can continue their winning ways in this clash.
Back Melbourne United To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)
Saturday December 23, 5:30pm, Brisbane Convention Centre
It has been a massive week for the Brisbane Bullets and they will start this clash with the Sydney Kings as clear favourites.
Brisbane beat Sydney a fortnight ago and they have since gone on to record upset victories over the Cairns Taipans and the Perth Wildcats.
The Bullets have won only two of their past six games as home favourites for a clear loss and their record against the line is also poor.
Sydney will be on the quick back-up after playing New Zealand on Thursday and their record away from home is extremely poor.
The Kings have won only one of their past 12 games as away underdogs and they are an extremely poor 2-10 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Saturday December 23, 7:30pm, WIN Entertainment Centre
The Illawarra Hawks may have the home-court advantage, but it is the Perth Wildcats that will start this game as favourites.
Illawarra have lost four games on the trot and they were no match for Perth a couple of weeks ago.
The Hawks have won eight of their past 14 games at home and they are only 6-8 against the line in this scenario.
Perth had their winning streak ended by the Brisbane Bullets last weekend and they are a side that don’t lost too many games on the trot.
The Wildcats have won 10 of their past 15 games in the road and their record against the line in this scenario is just as strong.
Perth can return to winning form and the line of 2.5 points will not be enough.
Back Perth To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
Sunday December 24, 3:00pm, Titanium Security Arena
The Adelaide 36ers are the shortest-priced favourites in the NBL this weekend.
Adelaide have won nine of their past 13 game as home favourites and more impressively they are 8-5 against the line in this scenario.
The Cairns Taipans have suffered two disappointing losses on the trot at the hands of the Brisbane Bullets and the Sydney Kings and it doesn’t get any easier against Adelaide.
Cairns have won only three of their past 12 games as away underdogs for a clear loss and their record against the line is no better.
Adelaide are one of the safest betting plays of the weekend and they can cover the line in the process.
Back Adelaide 36ers To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
It is a big weekend for the Brisbane Bullets, who have two home games in the space of three days.
They start round 11 with a crucial clash against Melbourne United and they are back at the Brisbane Convention Centre on Monday for a bout with the Illawarra Hawks.
The New Zealand Breakers take on the Perth Wildcats in the game of the round on Thursday night, while Cairns host Illawarra in another crucial clash on Saturday.
New Zealand Breakers
Thursday December 15, 5:30pm, Vector Arena
New Zealand Breakers 69 - Perth Wildcats 57
The New Zealand Breakers have won just one of their past five games, but they will still go into this clash with the Perth Wildcats as clear favourites.
New Zealand have won just nine of their past 15 games as home favourites for a clear loss and they are 7-8 against the line in this scenario.
Perth finally returned to winning form with a narrow victory over Melbourne United, but they still sit outside the top four.
The Wildcats have won just one of their past eight games as away underdogs for a big loss and they are a poor 3-5 against the line.
These are two teams that are tough to trust from a betting standpoint and I will be staying out of this clash.
Friday December 16, 7:30pm, Titanium Security Arena
Adelaide 36ers 82 - Sydney Kings 80
The Adelaide 36ers are arguably the form team of the NBL, but they will still start this clash with the Sydney Kings as outsiders.
Adelaide have won five games on the trot to get their season right back on track, but their record as away underdogs is still a poor 0-2 and they have the same record against the line.
Sydney suffered a surprise loss at the hands of Melbourne United last weekend and they have been a touch inconsistent in recent weeks.
The Kings have won just one of their past four games as home favourites for a clear loss, but they do have a decent record in Adelaide.
The scoring capabilities of Adelaide at the moment simply can’t be ignored and they are a good bet to score an upset win in front of their home fans.
Back Adelaide To Win @ $1.95
Saturday December 17, 5:30pm, Cairns Convention Centre
Cairns Taipans 99 - Illawarra Hawks 82
Cairns lost two home games last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with the Illawarra Hawks as narrow favourites.
The Taipans have now won only five of their past nine games as home favourites for a small loss and they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.
Illawarrra continue to fly under the radar, but they have now won four of their past five games.
The Hawks have won five of their past 14 games as away underdogs for a narrow loss, but their record against Cairns in this scenario is strong.
Illawarra are playing some quality basketball and they are a good bet to record another win on the road.
Back Illawarra To Win @ $1.95
Saturday December 17, 7:30pm, Brisbane Convention Centre
Brisbane Bullets 100 - Melbourne United 90
The Brisbane Bullets have hit something of a roadblock in recent weeks and they go into this clash with Melbourne United on the back of three straight losses.
Brisbane will go into this clash as underdogs, but they have a good record in this position since their return to the NBL.
Melbourne United have now won four of their past five games , but winning on the road has still proven to be easier said than done.
They have won just two of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear loss and they have generally had issues winning as the punter’s elect.
Brisbane are great value at their current price and are probably the best bet in the NBL this weekend.
Back Brisbane To Win @ $1.95
Sunday December 18, 3:00pm, Qudos Bank Arena
Sydney Kings 96 - Adelaide 36ers 103
This will be the second meeting between these two teams in three days.
Once again it will be the Sydney Kings that go into this clash as favourites and they have won six of their past nine games as home favourites for a narrow win, while they are 5-4 against the line.
Adelaide have an excellent record away from home over the past 12 months and they have won six of their past 13 games as away underdogs for a clear profit.
They are capable of beating anybody on their day and I will once again be throwing my support behind the 36ers.
Back Adelaide To Win @ $2.40
Monday December 19, 7:30pm, Brisbane Convention Centre
Brisbane Bullets 85 - Illawarra Hawks 91
Both these teams will be on the quick back-up after playing on Saturday night.
It is the Bullets that will go into this clash as clear favourites and they have become a touch unreliable as home favourites – they have won just two of their past six games in this scenario.
Illawarra have actually won five of their past 14 games as away underdogs for a narrow loss, but their record against the line is a lacklustre 6-8.
This is a match that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.