Wednesday, May 19, Nissan Arena , 7:30pm
The Bullets and the Wildcats square off for the second time in less than a week, and as the market suggests, Perth should be winning this one comfortably.
Trevor Gleeson’s men made short work of Brisbane on Saturday in their 12-point win, a result that largely boiled down to Perth’s outstanding efficiency from three.
Defence has been the Bullets’ biggest problem this year and this really isn’t a good matchup for them against one of the top shooting sides in the league.
Home court advantage didn’t really prove a factor last week, and with a chance to close the gap on top of the table Melbourne United, I can’t see the Wildcats losing this.
Tip: Back the Wildcats to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.90
New Zealand Breakers
Thursday, May 20, The Trusts Arena , 5:30pm
We’ve got even money on Thursday between the Breakers and Kings, which isn’t a surprise considering how out of form these two sides have been recently.
Sydney snapped its three-game skid last week with a 10-point win over Adelaide at home, while the Breakers have struggled mightily on the road losing three straight to the Wildcats, Phoenix and Hawks.
The Kings have been a very risky bet over the last month as their defence continues to cough up large chunks of points and I really can’t get on board with them here playing in Auckland for the first time in a long while.
Sydney has played to a sloppy 6-8 record away from home this year, while the Breakers have played to a very strong 13-3 record as the home favourite against Sydney.
Tip: Back the Breakers to Win @ $1.90
Friday, May 21, Adelaide Entertainment Centre, 7:30pm
This is another important game for the Hawks as they look to bounce-back from a very forgettable performance last week against Melbourne.
After trailing by only a single point at the end of the first quarter, Brian Goorjian’s side completely faded away down the stretch as Melbourne shot close to 60% from the field in a comfortable 15-point win.
Fortunately, the Hawks have drawn a favourable opponent on Friday. The 36ers have lost two straight coming in to the Hawks and Kings, but they should feel confident about this game getting back to their home court.
The 36ers rattled off two impressive home wins over the Bullets and Taipans earlier in the month, while they also defeated this same Hawks side by 12 points at home last month.
Illawarra has played to a very average 7-9 record away from home this year, so I like the 36ers outright.
Tip: Back the 36ers to Win
Friday, May 21, RAC Arena, 9:30pm
The Wildcats are back in action on Friday night only two days removed from their clash against the Bullets in Brisbane.
Travel could be a factor here, but considering Perth has won four straight over the Taipans dating back to last season, I can’t see them suffering any kind of upset.
Cairns has lost its last two road games by wide margins, adding to their ugly 1-12 record on the road this year.
This could be a firm ‘no bet’ kind of game, but if the line is reasonable, I’d take Perth to cover.
Tip: Back the Wildcats to Cover the Line
New Zealand Breakers
Saturday, May 22, TSB Stadium, 5:30pm
The Kings continue their New Zealand swing on Saturday with their second game agains the Breakers being played in Taranaki.
I’m writing this ahead of Thursday’s clash, so it’s tough to know what to make of this one, but I expect we’ll get something close to even money again.
Since both sides are playing on short rest, I think the most logical play is on the Under.
The last four games between these two sides have all fallen short of the Total, so with some weary legs on the court, we might be in for a low-scoring game.
Tip: Under the Total
South East Melbourne Phoenix
Saturday, May 22, Nissan Arena, 8:00pm
Sunday, May 23, Adelaide Entertainment Centre, 3:00pm
Sunday, May 23, WIN Entertainment Centre, 5:00pm
Monday, May 24, Nissan Arena, 7:30pm
New Zealand Breakers
Tuesday, May 25, Christchurch Arena, 5:30pm
With only two weeks remaining ahead of the NBL finals, it’s all about quality over quantity this week.
Things get off to a flyer between fourth and fifth on Friday night as the Bullets and Breakers square off in Brisbane. Melbourne looks to turn its season around against the hapless Hawks on Saturday afternoon, followed by a crucial game between the 36ers and the Taipans from Adelaide.
Sunday rounds out with the first-place Kings in action against the Phoenix, right before the Bullets get to work against a well-rested Wildcats side in Perth.
Round 19 in the NBL should give us a very clear idea of the top four picture, so if you’re looking for a few winners, read on below.
New Zealand Breakers
Friday, February 7, Queensland State Netball Centre , 7:30pm
Nissan Arena should be filled to the brim on Friday night as the Bullets look to earn their seventh consecutive win.
Brisbane is laying -5.5 here as they look to secure the fourth spot on the ladder. Andrej Lemanis’ side handed the Breakers a 10-point loss in Auckland only a month ago, making it nearly impossible to back against the home side head to head.
New Zealand also has a lot to play for though, which could see this game come right down to the wire.
Currently sitting two games back from the Bullets in fifth, the Kiwis could still sneak into the finals if results go their way. So far the Breakers have been the best side to bet on at the line covering in 16 of their 26 games, while the visitors also hold a convincing 4-2 record as the away underdog against Brisbane.
Tip: Back the Breakers to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday, February 8, Melbourne Arena, 5:30pm
Things have gone pear shaped fairly quickly for Melbourne with time quickly running out.
Last year’s Grand Finalists find themselves sitting sixth despite earning a big win over the Wildcats last week. That hasn’t stopped the bookies from laying United as double-digit favourites however, a line that seems sensible considering the Hawks are in the midst of a serious seven-game losing streak.
Not surprisingly, Melbourne has gotten the better of Illawarra winning four of the last five matchups. United won 104-91 when these two sides met last month – their third consecutive victory over the Hawks by double digits.
Home court advantage should also play a factor here as United hopes to improve to 8-5 at Melbourne Arena. The Hawks, on the other hand, have won only three games on the road this season, meaning we should see Melbourne make a big statement.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (-13.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday, February 8, Adelaide Entertainment Centre, 8pm
With only three games remaining, the top spot on the ladder is out of reach for the Taipans – but there’s nothing stopping Cairns from snatching second away from Perth.
Mike Kelly’s side will need to be at their best this week if they wish to put one last dagger through Adelaide’s season. Now sitting seventh at 12-14, the 36ers currently find themselves sitting three games back from the fourth-place Bullets, making every game from here on out a must win.
The 36ers can take some confidence in their 8-5 record at home though, which makes an upset worth backing here. The Taipans haven’t won in Adelaide since 2017, while the 36ers are also 4-2 over the last 12 months as the home underdog at the line.
Cairns will no doubt be a tough side to face in the finals, especially at home. Considering the Taipans are just 4-7 on the road however, all signs point towards a very close contest on Saturday.
Tip: Back the 36ers to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90
S.E. Melbourne Phoenix
Sunday February 9, Melbourne Arena, 3pm
A game against the lowly Phoenix couldn’t have come at a better time for the Kings as they look to rebound from a tough loss in Perth.
Sydney currently sits only a game clear of the Wildcats atop the table, but with three straight wins over South East Melbourne – including a double-digit victory only three weeks ago – it’s safe to say the Kings should fancy their chances.
The Phoenix have lost five on the trot heading into Sunday’s fixture and have shown no signs of earning one final win in their inaugural season. Surprisingly, Simon Mitchell’s team does lead the league in points-per-game, which suggests the Over could be in play.
Sydney has been elite all season, but the Kings are only 6-7 against the line on the road. With 4.5-points to cover, the safest play is probably on the Total.
Tip: Over the Points Total
Sunday February 9, RAC Arena, 5pm
The Bullets are back in action on Sunday in a game that could potentially make-or-break their season.
Depending on how Friday’s game against the Breakers turns out, Brisbane could find themselves in danger of falling outside the top four should they lose in Perth.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, come into this home game on six days rest laying -5.5 points. Perth hasn’t lost at home to the Bullets since 2017, while they’ll also hold fond memories of last months 12-point victory in Brisbane.
Since the Bullets are the only team playing twice this weekend, it’s very difficult to have anything on Brisbane here. Perth has covered the line in 10 of their 16 games as the home favourite at the line over the last 12 months, so take the Wildcats to win comfortably.
Tip: Back the Wildcats to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.90
The final round of the NBL season is here and we are treated to an extended round of action.
Melbourne United have secured the minor premiership, but the battle between the Adelaide 36ers, Perth Wildcats and New Zealand Breakers for second is still on in earnest.
We have analysed every game set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 NBL Round 19 tips can be found below.
Thursday February 15, 7:30pm, Brisbane Entertainment Centre
This clash between the Brisbane Bullets and the Sydney Kings will likely decided who finishes the season with the wooden spoon.
Sydney recorded a comfortable win over Brisbane when they met on Sunday, but Brisbane will still go into this clash as narrow favourites.
The Bullets have won only two of their past six games as home favourites and they have lost three of their past four games against Sydney.
Sydney have won four of their past five games and have played some excellent basketball in the process.
Backing the Kings as away underdogs has now actually been a profitable betting play this season and there really is plenty to like about them in this clash.
Back Sydney To Win @ $2
New Zealand Breakers
Friday February 16, 5:30pm, North Shore Events Centre
The New Zealand Breakers need to win this clash to keep alive their chances of a top two finish and they are favourites to do exactly that.
New Zealand lost both their games to Melbourne United last weekend and they have been very inconsistent in recent weeks.
They have won eight of their past 12 games as home favourites, but they are now 5-2-5 against the line in this scenario.
The Illawarra Hawks have won only one of their past eight games and they have been nothing short of woeful in the second half of the season.
Illawarra have won only four of their past 14 games as away underdogs and they are 6-8 against the line in this situation.
This is a game that the market looks to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Friday February 16, 7:30pm, Hisense Arena
This could be a preview of the NBL Grand Final Series.
Melbourne United continue on their winning ways with two big victories over New Zealand Breakers and they are now the team to beat for the NBL Championship.
Melbourne have won ten of their past 12 games as home favourites for a profit and they are an impressive 7-1-4 against the line in this situation.
The Perth Wildcats suffered a pair of disappointing defeats against the Adelaide 36ers and Cairns Taipans last weekend and need to win this clash to build some confidence heading into the NBL Finals.
Perth have won four of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they have won five of their past six games against Melbourne United.
The Wildcats are a better side than they have shown in recent weeks and they are capable of recording an upset win.
Back Perth To Win @ $2.60
Saturday February 17, 5:30pm, Titanium Security Arena
The Adelaide 36ers will start this clash with the Brisbane Bullets as dominant favourites.
Adelaide have won nine of their past 11 games and their record at home has been excellent – they have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites and they are 7-4 against the line in this scenario.
Winning away from home has been a big problem for Brisbane – they have won only three of their past 13 games on the road, but they are 7-2-4 against the line in this situation.
Adelaide really should be able to win this clash comfortably, but there is no value at their current price.
Sunday February 18, 3:00pm, Hisense Arena
This will be the second game for both these sides this season.
Melbourne United will start this clash as clear favourites and they will be extremely hard to beat – as shown above their record at home is outstanding.
The Illawarra Hawks have lost their past four games against Melbourne United and they have been extremely poor over the past month.
Melbourne will win this game comfortably and the line of 7.5 points will not be enough.
Back Melbourne United To Beat The Line (-7.5 Points)
New Zealand Breakers
Sunday February 18, 5:00pm, Qudos Bank Arena
The Sydney Kings will start this clash as favourites and a win could potentially see them avoid the wooden spoon.
Sydney have won four of their past seven games as home favourites for a loss, but they have been able to cover the line in each of these wins.
The New Zealand Breakers have won their past three games against Sydney and winning away from home has not been an issue this season.
New Zealand have won five of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a clear profit and on their best form they really should prove too strong for the Kings.
The $2.10 for a Breakers win is well and truly over the odds and one of the best value bets of the weekend.
Back New Zealand Breakers To Win @ $2.10
Sunday February 18, 7:00pm, Perth Arena
The Cairns Taipans scored a massive upset win over the Perth Wildcats last weekend, but it is Perth that will start this clash as favourites.
Perth’s loss to Cairns was a rare home defeat and they have still won 11 of their past 16 games as home favourites, while covering the line in each of these wins.
Cairns have won only two of their past seven games and winning away from home has been an issue.
The Taipans have won only three of their past 14 games as away underdogs and their record against the line is no better.
I would be stunned if the Taipans can record another upset win and the Wildcats should be far too good for their rivals.
Back Perth Wildcats To Beat The Line (-8.5 Points)
This is the final round of the NBL season and three of the positions in the NBL Finals are still up for grabs.
The Adelaide 36ers and Cairns Taipans will do battle on two occasions this weekend, while the Perth Wildcats and Melbourne United will both be in action twice.
Brisbane’s return to the NBL have been a rollercoaster journey and they finish their season with a clash with the Illawarra Hawks on Saturday, while New Zealand take on Melbourne United in what is likely .
There is still money to be made in the NBL this season and our thoughts on every single game are below.
Thursday February 9, 7:30pm, Cairns Convention Centre
This is a massive game for the Cairns Taipans, who have a genuine chance of qualifying for the NBL Finals.
The market can’t split these two teams and it is easy to see why.
Cairns have an excellent record in front of their home fans and have won nine of their past 13 games at the Cairns Convention Centre, while Adelaide have won eight of their past 15 away games for a big profit.
Adelaide have won three of the past four games played between these two sides and two of those victories have come on the road.
The 36ers continue to be the best team in the NBL and I am happy to throw my support behind them once again.
Back Adelaide To Win @ $1.87
New Zealand Breakers
Friday February 10, 5:30pm, North Shore Events Centre
This is a vital game for Melbourne United, but it is the New Zealand Breakers that will go into this clash as narrow favourites.
New Zealand scored a thrilling victory over Adelaide last weekend and they are always tough to beat in front of their home fans – they have won 10 of their past 15 games as home favourites and are 9-6 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne United have really struggled away from home this season and they have won just two of their past seven games as away underdogs.
New Zealand should be able to get the job done comfortably and the line of 2.5 points will not be enough.
Back New Zealand To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
Friday February 10, 9:30pm, Perth Arena
This is a must-win game for both sides.
It has been decades since the Perth Wildcats last missed the NBL Playoffs and the market suggests that they will qualify for the post-season once again.
Perth have now won 12 of their past 16 games as home favourites for a narrow profit and they have also been profitable against the line in this scenario.
Sydney need to win this game and hope that other results go their way to have a chance of playing in the NBL Finals.
The Kings have actually won four of their past eight games as away underdogs for a narrow profit and they are 5-3 against the line in this situation.
This is a match that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Saturday February 11, 5:30pm, Win Entertainment Centre
The Illawarra Hawks are the shortest-priced favourites of the week and they can secure a place in the NBL Finals with a victory.
The Hawks have actually been a losing betting proposition as home favourites this season and they have won only seven of their past 12 games as home favourites for a loss, while they are 5-7 against the line in this scenario.
Brisbane have fallen away badly at the conclusion of the NBL season and they have now won just one of their past eight games.
The Bullets have won four of their past 13 games as away underdogs for a clear loss and they are 5-8 against the line in this scenario.
This is another clash that I am happy to stay out of betting wise.
Saturday February 11, 7:30pm, Titanium Security Arena
This will be the second meeting between these two teams in four days.
The home court advantage definitely gives the Adelaide 36ers the clear edge.
Adelaide have won eight of their past 10 games as home favourites for a clear profit and their record against the line is just as good.
Winning away from home has been easier said than done for Cairns and they have won only four of their past 12 games as away underdogs, while they are 5-7 against the line in this situation.
Adelaide are deserving of their position as clear favourites and they should prove far too strong for their rivals.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points)
Sunday February 12, 3:00pm, Hisense Arena
This could prove to be a sudden death showdown for these two teams.
Perth have had the clear edge over Melbourne United this season, but it is Melbourne that will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Melbourne have won nine of their past 14 games as home favourites for a narrow loss, but their record against the line in this scenario is excellent.
Perth have struggled to win games away from home this season, but they have still manage to outperform market expectations and have been a profitable betting team against the line.
This really is an intriguing fixture that could go either way and I am keen to back Perth with the 2.5 point headstart.
Back Perth To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)