The NBL ladder continues to shift and shape with the first month almost in the books.
Sydney’s dominance continued last week as the Kings remain undefeated atop the ladder. Not to be outdone, South East Melbourne also remain a perfect 3-0 ahead of a crucial game this weekend against Perth.
With eight games to choose from, there is plenty of value in our NBL markets and to help you back a winner, all of our Round 4 tips can be found below.
New Zealand Breakers
Thursday, October 24, 5:30pm, Spark Arena
Two of the NBL’s cellar dwellers meet on Thursday night with plenty on the line.
The Breakers failed to put a win on the board during their opening two games last week agaisnt the Kings, but they did show plenty of fight against one of the competition’s favourites.
Illawarra has been the team to watch this season with LaMelo Ball on the roster, but so far the Hawks have failed to make the most of their talent. Through five games, Illawarra has registered only one win, while a pair of losses in Round 3 only added to the Hawks’ 1-4 record.
Despite their slow start to the season the Breakers have opened as -4.5-point favourites this week at home. New Zealand has won two straight games over Illawarra and should take plenty of confidence away from last week’s performances.
On defence, the Breakers held the Kings to just 27% shooting from beyond the arc in Game 2. Considering the Hawks have struggled in that department so far, back the Kiwis in this one.
Tip: Back the Breakers 1-10 @ $2.50
Friday, October 25, 7:30pm, Adelaide Entertainment Centre
It’s still early, but the 36ers look to be the real deal this season.
So far Adelaide has won two of its opening three games over the Bullets and Hawks, and they should take plenty of confidence into Friday night with a five-game winning streak over the Taipans.
Cairns earned their first win of the season last week with a double-digit win over the Wildcats. It’s been an up and down so far for the Taipans, particularly when it comes to consistent scoring.
Cameron Oliver is Perth’s leading scorer, but he’s only averaging 16.2 points-per-game. Considering the 36ers’ record in this fixture, take Adelaide to win a tight one.
Tip: Back the 36ers 1-10 @ $2.60
South East Melbourne Phoenix
Saturday, October 26, 5:30pm, RAC Arena
This looks to be the game of the round on Saturday as the undefeated Phoenix head West to face the reigning champs.
Perth suffered it’s first loss of the season last weekend in a blowout defeat against the Taipans at home. It proved to the entire competition that the Wildcats are indeed human, but like all good teams do, Perth bounced-back two days later with yet another win over Melbourne United.
The Phoenix are the feel good story of the 2019 season so far as the competition newbies continue to find new ways to win. John Roberson leads the league in scoring, but that still hasn’t been enough to sway the bookies in this week’s market.
Since these two teams have never faced off before, it’s difficult to know what to expect. Fortunately, the bookies have also set a generous line for this game, which the Phoenix have had no trouble covering with a perfect 2-0 record as the underdog.
Tip: Back the Phoenix to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.90
New Zealand Breakers
Saturday, October 26, 5:30pm, Melbourne Arena
United remain winless through three rounds following a devastating buzzer-beater loss to the Wildcats last week.
It’s a very unfamiliar spot for Melbourne, who opened the season as the competition favourites. Fortunately, there’s plenty of time to right the ship with the struggling Breakers coming to town.
New Zealand will be looking to back up on short rest following their home game against the Hawks on Thursday night. It’s a tough ask for a team that doesn’t always travel well, especially with only one win in their last five games against Melbourne.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday, October 26, 8pm, Qudos Bank Arena
The undefeated Kings will enjoy a light workload this week with only one game against the Bullets at home.
Brisbane has opened the season 2-2 with a pair of wins over the Hawks and the Taipans, but the Bullets have yet to show much fight against the competitions top contenders with a pair of back-to-back losses to the Phoenix and 36ers.
To make matters worse, Brisbane has also struggled in recent times against the Kings. The Bullets have lost seven games agaisnt Sydney dating back to 2017, while their 2-4 record as the line underdog in road games against the Kings makes them tough to back.
Sydney’s offence is operating on all cylinders right now, but it’s the defence that has been the real eye-catcher. The Kings have held three of their four opponents to under 80-points this season, so back Sydney to keep this one out of reach.
Tip: Back the Kings to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.90
South East Melbourne Phoenix
Sunday, October 27, 3:00pm, Melbourne Arena
There should be no shortage of scoring in this game between two teams that rank one and two in points-per-game.
South East Melbourne has been the most efficient three-point shooting side in the competition so far, while the 36ers have managed to hit only 32% from beyond the arc.
Adelaide is certainly among the contenders so far, but it’s difficult to see them competing against a Phoenix side that looks unstoppable at home, and on the scoresheet.
Tip: Back the Phoenix 11+ @ $3.10
Sunday, October 27, 5:00pm, WIN Entertainment Centre
The Hawks return home on limited rest following Thursday’s trip to New Zealand to face the Breakers.
Illawarra’s only win so far came at home over the Taipans a fortnight ago, but as the market suggests, this is still a tremendous ask against the reigning champs.
The Wildcats have won four of their last five games over the Hawks, but Illawarra did get the better of Perth at home last season. Even so, nothing about the Hawks defensively screams they are capable of handling Perth right now.
Tip: Back the Wildcats to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.90
Monday, October 28, 7:30pm, Cairns Convention Centre
This is another must-win game for United as they look to claw their way back to a winning record.
We’ll likely know more about this game following Melbourne’s result against the Breakers on Saturday, but it’s still tough to fade the favourites at home.
Cairns won a two-point nail-biter over United when these two teams last met, but Melbourne has largely enjoyed the better part of this match up in recent years winning the previous four games.
With a chance to wrong their rights, back Melbourne to cap off a big weekend with a win.
Tip: Back Melbourne United 1-10 @ $2.50
The 2018/2019 NBL season continues to produce plenty of upsets and we are set for another fascinating weekend of action in the NBL.
Title favourites Melbourne United and the Sydney Kings will do battle in the match of the weekend on Monday, but before that there are five games that are full of interest from a betting perspective.
We have analysed all six games set to take place this weekend and our complete NBL round 4 tips can be found below.
Thursday November 1, 7:50pm, Brisbane Convention Centre
The Brisbane Bullets may have the homecourt advantage, but it is the Adelaide 36ers that will start this clash as favourites.
Adelaide finished last weekend 1-1, following a tough road trip with games in both Cairns and New Zealand, and winning on the road is not an issue for the 36ers.
They have won two of their past three games as away favourites, but they are only 1-2 against the line in this scenario.
The Bullets showed what they are capable of when they beat the Perth Wildcats last Thursday night and they have now won four of their past eight games as home underdogs for a profit, while they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
This will be a close game and I’m keen to back the Bullets with the insurance of a 3.5 points start.
Back Brisbane To Cover The Line (+3.5 Points)
Friday November 2, 7:50pm, Qudos Bank Arena
It is the Sydney Kings that will go into this clash with the Illawarra Hawks as clear favourites.
Sydney survived a scare to record an overtime win over the Cairns Taipans last weekend and they are slowly starting to gel as the season develops.
They have now won five of their past eight games as home favourites, but they are only a middling 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
Illawarra were too strong for the Brisbane Bullets at home last weekend and they were not disgraced against Melbourne United.
The Hawks have won six of their past 12 games as away underdogs and their record against the Kings is strong.
I remain keen to take on the Kings and the Hawks are a simply outstanding bet to cover the line with a start of 6.5 points.
Back Illawarra To Cover The Line (+6.5 Points)
New Zealand Breakers
Saturday November 3, 3:00pm, RAC Arena
The Perth Wildcats suffered their first loss of the season when they went down to the Brisbane Bullets last weekend, but they bounced back from that defeat to score a thrilling overtime win over Melbourne United.
It should come as no surprise that the home side holds the upper hand in the rivalry between these two sides and Perth are yet to lose at home this season.
The New Zealand Breakers have won only four of their past 12 games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario isn’t much better.
Perth have covered the line in their past seven wins at home and that streak should continue in this clash.
Back Perth To Cover The Line (-6.5 Points)
Saturday November 3, 7:50pm, Cairns Convention Centre
It has been a tough start to the season for the Cairns Taipans and it doesn’t get any easier for them in this clash with Melbourne United.
Cairns have won only one of their four games this season and they are yet to taste success at the Cairns Convention Centre.
Melbourne United went down to the Perth Wildcats in their opening game of the weekend, but they bounced back to score a comfortable win over the Illawarra Hawks.
They have won five of their past six games as away favourites and they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.
This should really be a comfortable win for Melbourne United and the line of 2.5 points will not be enough.
Back Cairns To Cover The Line (-2.5 Points)
Sunday November 4, 2:50pm, Titanium Security Arena
This will be the second meeting between these two sides this weekend.
Brisbane have beaten Adelaide in Adelaide only once since they rejoined the NBL in 2016 and it is no surprise that the 36ers will start this clash as dominant favourites.
Adelaide have won 12 of their past 15 games as home favourites and they have covered the line in 11 of those wins.
In saying that, Brisbane have played some decent basketball on the road and backing them against the line as away underdogs has been a profitable play.
This is a game that the market has gotten just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Monday November 5, 7:50pm, Melbourne Arena
This is easily the biggest game of the weekend and one of the biggest games of the season to date.
Melbourne United have won their past seven games against the Sydney Kings and they go into this clash as deserving favourites.
They have won 15 of their past 18 games as home favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is excellent.
Sydney are a side that clearly have plenty of ability, but they are still a work in progress and I’m not sure that they are ready to match it with Melbourne United at this stage of the season.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-1.5 Points)
The NBL season is now well and truly underway and we are set for a number of big games this weekend.
Every game this weekend is set to be a competitive one from a betting standpoint and there are plenty of value betting plays to be found.
We have analysed all five games and our complete 2017 NBL Round 4 tips can be found below.
New Zealand Breakers
Thursday October 26, 7:30pm, Brisbane Convention Centre
Brisbane Bullets 96 - New Zealand Breakers 101
The New Zealand Breakers have won three games on the trot, but it is the Brisbane Bullets that will start this clash as narrow favourites.
Brisbane recorded their maiden win of the season when they beat Cairns last Friday night, but they were unable to replicate that effort against the Illawarra Hawks.
The Bullets have still won only one of their past seven games as home favourites and they have lost their past three games against the Breakers.
New Zealand will go into this clash with plenty of confidence following big wins over the Sydney Kings and Melbourne United.
The Breakers have won six of their past 13 games as away underdogs for a big profit and they are 8-5 against the line in this scenario.
New Zealand are well and truly over the odds at $2.30 and they are one of the best value betting plays of the weekend.
Back New Zealand @ $2.30
Thursday October 26, 9:30pm, Perth Arena
Perth Wildcats 105 - Illawarra Hawks 74
The Perth Wildcats have made an excellent start to the NBL season and they will start this clash with the Illawarra Hawks as clear favourites.
Perth beaten by the Cairns Taipans last Sunday, but they started the season with three straight wins and their record in front of their home fans is outstanding.
The Wildcats have won 11 of their past 15 games as home favourites and they are 9-6 against the line in this scenario, while they are 14-2 in their past 16 matches against the Hawks in this situation.
Illawarra claimed their first win of the season against the Brisbane Bullets on Sunday, but they have struggled on the road in the early stages of this season.
They have covered the line in only seven of their past 17 games as away underdogs and their record in Perth is particularly poor.
Perth look like the safest betting play of the weekend and they can cover the line comfortably.
Back Perth To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
Friday October 27, 7:30pm, Cairns Convention Centre
Cairns Taipans 80 - Adelaide 36ers 84
The market can’t separate the Cairns Taipans or the Adelaide 36ers heading into this clash at the Cairns Convention Centre.
Cairns lost to the Brisbane Bullets last Friday night, but they bounced back with their best performance of the season to beat the Perth Wildcats on Sunday.
The Taipans have won 11 of their past 17 games in front of their home fans, but their record against Adelaide at home isn’t great.
Adelaide have already beaten Cairns at the Cairns Convention this season and playing on the road isn’t a concern – the 36ers have won eight of their past 14 games away from home.
The 36ers can continue their excellent record on the road with another win in what should be a high-scoring encounter.
Back Adelaide To Win @ $1.90
Saturday October 28, 5:30pm, Carrara Stadium
Brisbane Bullets 87 - Melbourne United 85
The Brisbane Bullets may have the homecourt advantage, but it is Melbourne United that will start this clash as clear favourites.
Melbourne United started the season with a pair of wins over Adelaide, but they have since suffered poor losses at the hands of the Perth Wildcats and the New Zealand Breakers.
They have won only two of their past six games as away favourites for a clear loss and they are a poor 1-5 against the line in this scenario.
While Brisbane have struggled to win at home as favourites, their record as home underdogs is nothing short of outstanding.
The Bullets have won four of their past five games as home underdogs for a big profit and they beat Melbourne United in that scenario twice last season.
I am always keen to take on Melbourne United and the Brisbane Bullets are an excellent betting play.
Back Brisbane Bullets To Win @ $2.35
Sunday October 29, 3:00pm, WIN Entertainment Centre
Illawarra Hawks 94 - Sydney Kings 99
This will be the second meeting between these two sides this season and it is the Illawarra Hawks that will start this clash as clear favourites.
It was Sydney that took out the meeting between these two sides just under a fortnight ago, but they are a tough team to trust from a betting standpoint.
The Kings have won only two of their past eight games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is no better.
Illawarra have won seven of their past 12 games as home favourites and they are only a middling 6-6 against the line in this situation.
It is tough to trust either of these teams from a betting perspective and this is a contest that I am happy to stay out of.
Round 4 of the 2016/2017 NBL season gets underway on Thursday when the Cairns Taipans host Melbourne United before Illawarra take on the Perth Wildcats on Friday night.
The New Zealand Breakers set to face the Adelaide 36ers and the Sydney Kings and Brisbane Bullet will renew their rivalry on Sunday ahead of the clash between the Illawarra Hawks and Cairns Taipans.
There will be plenty of betting interest in every single game this weekend and you can find our thoughts about every single game below.
Thursday October 27, 7:30pm, Cairns Convention Centre
Cairns Taipans 83 - Melbourne United 76
The Cairns Taipans have made a very slow start to the NBL season, but they finally get the chance to play in front of their home fans at the Cairns Convention Centre.
The Taipans have been no match for the Sydney Kings and Adelaide 36ers in their past two games, but their record at home must be respected – they have won three of their past four games as home underdogs for a clear profit.
Melbourne United struggled without the injured Chris Goulding against Perth on Sunday and he will once again be missing against the Taipans.
They will go into this clash as favourites, but they have won four of their past seven games as away favourites for a clear loss and they are 3-4 against the line in this scenario.
Cairns have an excellent chance to record their first win of the season and they are great value at their current quote of $2.40.
Back Cairns To Win @ $2.40
Friday October 28, 7:30pm, Win Entertainment Centre
Illawarra Hawks 81 - Perth Wildcats 76
Perth have now won four games on the trot and they will go into this clash with the Illawarra Hawks as clear favourites.
The Wildcats beat Melbourne United on the road last weekend, but they have only won four of their past eight games as away favourites for a loss, while they are 1-7 against the line in this scenario.
Illawarra have had a busy start to the season and they have not won a game since their season opener against the Adelaide 36ers.
The return to the Win Entertainment Centre will help their chances and they have won two of their past three games as home underdogs, while they are 11-4 against the line in front of their home fans.
Illawarra are a much better chance in this clash than their odds suggest and they are a great bet to get the job done at a quote of $2.25.
Back Illawarra To Win @ $2.25
New Zealand Breakers
Saturday October 29, 5:30pm, Vector Arena
New Zealand Breakers 119 - Adelaide 36ers 93
The New Zealand Breakers head into this clash on the back of three straight losses and have only won the one game this season.
New Zealand were not disgraced against the Brisbane Bullets, but were out-hustled at crucial moments.
They will go into this clash as clear favourites, but they have actually been a losing betting proposition as home favourites over the past 12 months and are a middling 7-7 against the line.
Adelaide continue to produce some exciting basketball and they were excellent against Cairns last weekend.
The 36ers are 1-1 as away favourites, while they are 6-9 against the line on the road.
The market looks to have got this game just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Sunday October 30, 3:00pm, Qudos Bank Arena
Sydney Kings 87 - Brisbane Bullets 78
This is easily the match of the round between two of the most in-form teams in the competition.
The Sydney Kings have been the big improvers in the NBL this season under the care of Andrew Gaze and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Sydney have now won four of their past five games as home favourites for a clear profit, while they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario.
Brisbane beat Sydney on the road in the first round of the season, but it is fair to say that the Kings have improved significantly since that clash.
The Bullets continue to play solid basketball, but this is a tough test on the road and it is tough to bet against Sydney in their current form.
Back Sydney To Beat The Line (-4 Points)
Sunday October 30, 7:00pm, Win Entertainment Centre
Illawarra Hawks 83 - Cairns Taipans 98
This is a crucial game from both sides who will both be on the quick back-up.
Illawarra will go into this clash as clear favourites and their record as home favourites is very strong – they have won 10 of their past 12 games in this scenario and they are 9-3 against the line.
It is no secret that Cairns struggle away from home and they have won just one of their past 11 games as away underdogs, while they are 3-8 against the line in this situation.
Illawarra are one of the safest betting plays of the round and they are a great bet to cover the line of 3.5 points.
Back Illawarra To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)