This year’s NBL Championship market took a slight twist last week as the Kings suffered their first loss of the season to Melbourne United.
Sydney will be out for revenge as they look to distance themselves from the second-place Wildcats on the ladder, with a game against Perth ahead on Sunday, we should learn plenty about how serious both teams are in the process.
It’s been a tough go for NBL bettors to start the season, but we’re confident we’ve found some winners (and upsets) in our complete Round 6 Preview below.
New Zealand Breakers
Thursday, November 7, 5:30pm, Spark Arena
A 12-point blowout win over rivals South East Melbourne last week has seen United open as the early favourites on the road in Auckland.
Melbourne finished Round 5 off in style after losing by five to the Taipans last Monday night, but there’s still plenty of work to do at 2-4 as they prepare for a very resilient looking Breakers team.
New Zealand also finds themselves with two wins on the season after defeating the Taipans by eight points last Thursday. Unfortunately, the Breakers couldn’t keep the good times rolling at home though as they lost by five to the Wildcats three days later.
The money on offer head-to-head here is very tempting but I’m going to play it safe with the Breakers at the line. New Zealand has been the second-best side when it comes to covering the spread at 4-2, so until proven otherwise, back the Breakers with home-court advantage.
Tip: Back the Breakers to Cover the Line
Friday, November 8, 7:30pm, Queensland State Netball Centre
The Bullets improved to fourth on the ladder last week as they pulled off a big-time upset over the Wildcats at home.
Brisbane backed that performance up with a victory over the Hawks on the road last Sunday, but that hasn’t been enough to sway the bookmakers into installing the Bullets as favourites.
Sydney will head to Brisbane as 2.5-point favourites after suffering their first loss of the season last week. The Kings came up short by three-points to Melbourne on the road, but as you might recall, Sydney lost back-to-back games only once last year.
The Kings have also won eight straight games over the Bullets dating back to 2017. In case you need further convincing, Sydney are 2-1 as the away favourite against Brisbane, so it’s worth backing the visitors at their current price.
Tip: Back the Kings to Win @ $1.71
S.E. Melbourne Phoenix
New Zealand Breakers
Saturday, November 9, 5:30pm, Melbourne Arena
South East Melbourne lost by 12-points to United in Throwdown 2 last week, but four wins from six games should still have the Phoenix feeling pretty confident a month into the season.
The Breakers are yet to face the Phoenix and as the stats suggest, this one could het ugly. South East Melbourne is averaging a league-best 98 points-per-game, compared to the Breakers, who are averaging just above 88.
New Zealand are yet to win a game on the road and against a Phoenix side hungry to bounce-back from a loss to their rivals, it’s worth backing South East Melbourne to win comfortably.
Tip: Back the Phoenix to Cover the Line (-4.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday, November 9, 8pm, Cairns Convention Centre
Is there any danger of this game turning into a thriller?
Sometimes these bottom dweller clashes provide plenty of fireworks, and with both sides looking to lift from the bottom of the ladder, it’s almost surprising to find the bookmakers favouring the Taipans by 6.5-points.
Home-court advantage counts for a lot, especially in Cairns, but there’s very little to like about the Taipans offensively.
On the flip side, the Hawks currently rank dead last in points-per-game and are the only side in the competition shooting less than 40% from the field.
This game could turn out to be a close but ugly affair. I’m still not sold on this generous line in favour of Cairns though, especially with the Hawks holding a 7-1-4 record as the away underdog against the Taipans at the line.
Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.92
Sunday, November 10, 3pm, Melbourne Arena
It’s a big weekend for United as they backup from a trip to New Zealand on Thursday night.
Adelaide enjoys a much easier schedule as they roll into Sunday’s game well-rested following last week’s two-point loss to the Kings at home. The 36ers will be hoping to snap their two-game losing streak, but nothing is going to come easy a rejuvenated United outfit.
Melbourne has won four of its last five games over Adelaide, but it’s worth noting three of those five games have been decided by no more than three points.
United is averaging 97 points-per-game, good for the second highest average in the league. The 36ers sit not far behind in third with 95 points-per-game, making the margin the safest play.
Tip: Back Melbourne 1-10 @ $2.75
Sunday, November 10, 5pm, Qudos Bank Arena
The NBL has saved the best for last this week as the Kings and Wildcats to battle in a potential Grand Final preview.
It’s a tough week for Sydney as they turnaround from Friday night’s game in Brisbane for a tough encounter against the reigning premiers. The Wildcats, meanwhile, come into this one fresh with only one game to play in Round 6.
The Wildcats have won their last two games over Sydney, including last year’s thrilling overtime finish. Not long before though, the Kings have won four straight over Perth.
Sydney will be hoping to win both games this weekend, and if they do so, it will almost certainly see them firm even further in outright championship betting. Considering the last six games in Sydney between these two sides have gone Under the Total however, it’s much safer to back this one to be low scoring.
Tip: Under the Points Total
There are only five games set to take place in the NBL this weekend, but there is betting interest in every single game.
Melbourne United will be in action on two occasions and will have the chance to leapfrog the Perth Wildcats at the top of the NBL Ladder, while the New Zealand Breakers will also play on two occasions.
We have analysed every fixture and our 2018/2019 NBL Round 6 tips can be found below.
New Zealand Breakers
Friday November 16, 5:50pm, iLT Stadium Southland
The New Zealand Breakers have won three of their past four games, but it is still Melbourne United that will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Melbourne suffered a surprise loss at the hands of the Illawarra Hawks last weekend, but they were able to bounce back to their best with a comfortable win over the Cairns Taipans.
They have now won six of their past seven games as away favourites and they are an impressive 5-2 against the line in this scenario.
New Zealand were far too good for the Taipans and they survived a comeback to beat the Bullets away from home last Sunday.
The Breakers are 7-7 at home over the past 12 months and they are 4-2-7 against the line.
Melbourne United should win this game and the line of 2.5 points will not be enough.
Back Melbourne United To Cover The Line (-2.5 Points)
Saturday November 17, 2:50pm, Titanium Security Arena
The Adelaide 36ers have lost four games on the trot, but they will still go into this game as favourites.
Adelaide have been very disappointing in recent weeks, but they do have an excellent chance to return to winning form against the Illawarra Hawks.
The 36ers have won 12 of their past 16 games as home favourites and they have covered the line in 11 of these wins.
Illawarra scored a shock win over Melbourne United last weekend, but they were outclassed by the Perth Wildcats on Saturday.
The Hawks have won three of their past ten games as away underdogs and they are 4-1-5 against the line in this situation.
Adelaide have an excellent record against Illawarra and they should be able to maintain that in this encounter.
Back Adelaide To Cover The Line (-5.5 Points)
Saturday November 17, 7:50pm, Cairns Convention Centre
The Perth Wildcats have lost only one game this season and they will start this clash with the struggling Cairns Taipans as clear favourites.
Perth have won four games on the trot and they have done so without ever really looking like losing.
The Wildcats have won only four of their past eight games as away favourites and they are 3-5 against the line in this scenario.
Cairns have not won a game since their opening game of the season and their past three defeats have been by big margins.
They have lost their past three games as home underdogs and they have failed to cover the line in any of these defeats.
Cairns are struggling badly and another big Perth victory does look on the cards.
Back Perth To Cover The Line (-2.5 Points)
Sunday November 18, 2:50pm, Melbourne Arena
Melbourne United are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the NBL.
They have won their past three games against the Brisbane Bullets and they are a side that do play well on the quick back-up.
Melbourne United have won 16 of their past 19 games as home favourites and they have been a profitable betting play against the line in this scenario.
Brisbane have lost two games on the trot, but they played well and were a touch unlucky against both the Perth Wildcats and the New Zealand Breakers.
The Bullets have won five of their past 17 games as away underdogs and they are 10-2-5 against the line in this situation.
This is a game that the market does look to have just about right and I am happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.
New Zealand Breakers
Sunday November 18, 5:20pm, Qudos Bank Arena
The Sydney Kings are another short-priced favourite in the NBL this weekend.
Sydney were able to return to winning form with a comfortable win over the Adelaide 36ers and they have now four of their past five games.
The Kings have won six of their past eight games as home favourites and they are now 4-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
New Zealand scored a rare win on the road when they beat the Brisbane Bullets in a thriller last weekend, but their overall record on the road is poor.
They have won only three of their past 12 games as away underdogs and their record against the line is no better.
Things are starting to click for the Sydney Kings and they can continue their winning ways.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-6.5 Points)
We are set for not one, but two top-of-the-table clashes in the NBL this weekend.
The New Zealand Breakers and the Perth Wildcats have been the standout sides in the NBL this season and they will meet in New Zealand on Thursday before they play again in Perth on Sunday.
We have analysed every game in the NBL this weekend and our complete 2017 NBL Round 6 tips can be found below.
New Zealand Breakers
Thursday November 9, 5:30pm, Spark Arena
New Zealand Breakers 88 - Perth Wildcats 84
There is very little in betting between these two teams and it is the New Zealand Breakers that are set to start this clash as narrow favourites.
New Zealand have won six games on the trot in impressive fashion, but this is easily their biggest test of the season to date.
The Breakers have won eight of their past 13 games as home favourites for a clear profit and their record against the line is identical.
The Perth Wildcats have also lost just the one game this season and they have been nothing short of dominant in recent weeks.
Perth have won six of their past 12 games as away underdogs for a profit, but their record in New Zealand is poor and they have covered the line in only two of their past ten games against the Breakers as away underdogs.
New Zealand have played some excellent basketball in recent weeks and they can continue their winning streak.
Back New Zealand To Beat The Line (-1.5 Points)
Thursday November 9, 7:30pm, Cairns Convention Centre
Cairns Taipans 92 - Melbourne United 69
The Cairns Taipans may have the home-court advantage, but it is Melbourne United that will start this clash as clear favourites.
Melbourne United have won their past two games, but they have still struggled for consistency this season and they have won only two of their past seven games as away favourites, while they are an extremely poor 1-6 against the line in this scenario.
It has been a slow start to the season for Cairns and they have lost five of their past six games.
They have still won two of their past three games as home underdogs and they have the same record against the line in this scenario.
I am always keen to bet against Melbourne United when they play on the road and this game will be no exception.
Back Cairns To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)
Saturday November 11, 5:30pm, Hisense Arena
Melbourne United 108 - Sydney Kings 90
Melbourne United will be on the quick back-up when they host the Sydney Kings on Saturday night and they are the shortest-priced favourites of the week.
Winning at home has not been an issue for Melbourne United and they have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites, while they are 9-2 against the line in this scenario.
The pressure continues to build on Andrew Gaze and the Sydney Kings following another flat effort against the Illawarra Hawks.
Sydney have won three of their past ten games as away underdogs and their record against the line isn’t any better.
The line may be 7.5 points, but the Kings can still cover it comfortably.
Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (-7.5 Points)
Saturday November 11, 7:30pm, Titanium Security Arena
Adelaide 36ers 87 - Illawarra Hawks 96
The Adelaide 36ers are clear favourites to account for the Illawarra Hawks in the other Saturday night clash.
Adelaide head into this clash on the back of losses at the hands of both New Zealand and Melbourne and they really do need to return to winning form.
The 36ers have won nine of their past 13 games as home favourites for a small profit and they are 8-5 against the line in this scenario.
Illawarra produced impressive performances to beat both the Brisbane Bullets and the Sydney Kings, but this is a much tougher clash.
The Hawks have won eight of their past 20 games as away underdogs for a small profit, but they are only 9-11 against the line in this scenario.
Adelaide have too much clash for Illawarra and they can cover the line of 6.5 points.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
Sunday November 12, 3:00pm, Brisbane Convention Centre
Brisbane Bullets 82 - Cairns Taipans 74
It is the Brisbane Bullets that will start this clash with the Cairns Taipans as favourites.
Injuries have already been an issue for the Bullets this season and they has tested their depth, which didn’t live up to that examination against the Illawarra Hawks last weekend.
Brisbane’s record as home favourites continues to be horrendous and they have won only one of their past nine games in this scenario.
Cairns have won four of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a narrow profit, but they are a tough team to back with any real confidence.
This is a clash that I am keen to stay out of from a betting perspective.
New Zealand Breakers
Sunday November 12, 7:00pm, Perth Arena
Perth Wildcats 82 - New Zealand Breakers 88
This is the second game between the Perth Wildcats and the New Zealand Breakers this weekend.
It is Perth that will start this rematch as clear favourites and they are always tough to beat in front of their home fans.
The Wildcats have won 12 of their past 16 games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are a highly profitable 11-5 against the line in this scenario.
Winning away from home has not been an issue for New Zealand and they have won seven of their past 14 games on the road for a huge profit, while they are 9-5 against the line in this situation.
This a game that the market looks to have gotten just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.
There will be a hint of State Of Origin in the air in the NBL on Thursday night when the Brisbane Bullets host the Sydney Kings at the Brisbane Convention Centre.
The Kings will be in action again on Saturday night when they face Melbourne United after the crucial showdown between the Adelaide 36ers and the Illawarra Hawks.
Cairns face Brisbane in an all-Queensland clash on Sunday afternoon before the round concludes with another Grand Final rematch between the Perth Wildcats and the New Zealand Breakers.
Thursday November 10, 7:30pm, Brisbane Convention Centre
Brisbane Bullets 86 - Sydney Kings 73
The Sydney Kings head into this clash as narrow favourites, despite being away from home.
Sydney went 1-1 from their two games against Cairns last weekend and their record away from home still reads a poor three wins from 14 games.
Brisbane head into this clash on the back of two straight losses against the Kings and the New Zealand Breakers, but this is their first home game in over a fortnight.
The Bullets are 2-1 in front of their home fans this season and there is no doubt that some of their best performances have come at home.
I am happy to take on Sydney away from home and the Bullets look a good bet at their current price of $2.25.
Back Brisbane To Win @ $2.25
New Zealand Breakers
Friday November 11, 5:30pm, Vector Arena
New Zealand Breakers 79 - Cairns Taipans 86
New Zealand head into this clash on the back of three straight wins and they are one of the form teams in the NBL.
The Breakers will start this clash as clear favourites and they have won 11 of their past 15 games as home favourites, while they are 8-7 against the line in this scenario.
Cairns have found some form of their own and they have won three of their past four games.
They recorded a rare win away from home against Illawarra, but they have still won just one of their past 11 games as away underdogs and they are 4-7 against the line in this situation.
This should be a comfortable win for New Zealand and they are a good bet to cover the line of 3.5 points.
Back New Zealand To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)
Saturday November 12, 5:30pm, Titanium Security Arena
Adelaide United 74 - Illawarra Hawks 85
This should be a high-scoring clash between two of the most entertaining teams in the NBL.
Adelaide have lost two games on the trot and they will still go into this game as clear favourites.
Home favourtism has suited Adelaide – they are 8-1 as home favourites in this situation and 7-2 against the line.
Illawarra have been a tough side to analyse this season, but their record away from home continues to be poor.
They have won just two of their past 12 games as away underdogs for a clear loss and their record against the line is a poor 3-9.
Adelaide will win this game and the line of 2.5 points will not be anywhere near enough.
Adelaide To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
Saturday November 12, 7:30pm, Hisense Arena
Melbourne United 71 - Sydney Kings 87
The Sydney Kings will be on the quick back-up after facing Brisbane on Thursday night, but they will still go into this clash as clear favourites.
It is no secret that Sydney have struggled on the road over the past 12 months and it is tough to trust a side that has won just three of their past 14 games away from home.
Melbourne United have lost four games on the trot and they really need to win this clash to get their season back on track.
This will be the first time in over 12 months that they have started a game as home underdogs, but they are 6-7 in front of their home fans over this period.
These are two teams that are tough to trust and I am keen to stay out from a betting perspective.
Sunday November 13, 3:00pm, Cairns Convention Centre
Cairns Taipans 76 - Brisbane Bullets 84
Both these teams are on the quick back-up.
Cairns have the home-court advantage and they will go into this clash as favourites.
The Taipans have won six of their past eight games as home favourites for a narrow profit, while they are 5-3 against the line in this situation.
Brisbane have won just one of their four games as away underdogs since returning to the NBL and beating Cairns at home is a much tougher task than it often appears.
Cairns can get the job done and cover the line in doing so.
Back Cairns To Beat The Line (-2 Points)
New Zealand Breakers
Sunday November 13, 7:00pm, Perth Arena
Perth Wildcats 86 - New Zealand Breakers 87
This is a tough task for the New Zealand Breakers, who are not only on the quick back-up but have to make the longest trip in the NBL.
Perth have have five of their past six games and it is no surprise that they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
The Wildcats have won an incredible 17 of their past 18 games as home favourites and their record against the line in this situation is a highly profitable 11-1-6.
New Zealand have won four of their past 11 games as away underdogs for just a small loss, but they are an unconvincing 5-1-5 against the line in this situation.
This is Perth’s game to lose and they are one of the safest bets of the weekend.
Back Perth To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)