2021 NRL Round 11 Preview

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Magic Round promised and Magic Round delivered, but it’s time to get back to business this week as we march towards the halfway mark of the season.

Three top eight blockbusters conclude the round, starting on Saturday with an all-important battle in Canberra between the Raiders and the Storm.

The action only heats up from there as the Rabbitohs take on the Panthers in Dubbo, followed by an evenly matched game between the Eels and Manly on Sunday afternoon from Bankwest.

With the finals picture really starting to take shape, our NRL expert has you covered with his best bets ahead of Round 11 below!

North Queensland Cowboys Vs Newcastle Knights

Thursday May 20, 7:50pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Thursday night footy returns this week with an intriguing clash between 11th and 12th on the ladder.

Despite a spirited first half, the Cowboys fell 14-point victims to the Roosters last week, while the Knights also came up short by a similar margin to a lively Tigers outfit.

The Cowboys’ injury woes have only gotten worse with Coen Hess suffering a concussion last week, but that hasn’t stopped the bookies favouring the home side by a slim margin.

The Knights also suffered a blow with Pasami Saulo suffering a severe leg injury, but there is a chance Edrick Lee returns this week to give the Newcastle attack a much-needed boost.

Betting-wise, the Cowboys do look a good bet here with home-field advantage, particularly when you consider the Knights have played to a 2-3 record away from home this year.

Newcastle hasn’t won in Townsville since 2015, so if Todd Payten’s crew can start fast like they did last week, they might one-up the Knights on the ladder.

Tip: Back the Cowboys 1-12 @ $3.05

New Zealand Warriors Vs Wests Tigers

Friday May 21, 6:00pm, Central Coast Stadium

This is easily one of the toughest games to pick this week, largely due to Wests remarkable win over the Knights last Friday.

Michael Maguire’s side picked up its third win of the season thanks to an Adam Doueihi double, but whether the Tigers can replicate that performance against a Warriors side that typically plays well on the Central Coast remains to be seen.

While the Warriors have struggled to match that of Manly and Parramatta over the last fortnight, head coach Nathan Brown has to feel good about the fact there is only two points separating his side from the sixth-placed Dragons.

As far as trends go, recent history also suggests the Warriors are the team to bet on.

The Kiwis have played to a strong 3-1 record as the away favourite at the line against the Tigers, and they can certainly add to that number if they limit the errors that cost them last week.

The Tigers also haven’t won back-to-back games since Rounds 6 and 7 last year, so the chances of another miracle this week appear unlikely.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.90

Cronulla Sharks Vs St George-Illawarra Dragons

Friday May 21, 7:55pm, Nestrata Jubilee Stadium

A good old-fashioned rivalry game might be just what the doctor ordered for the Sharks and Dragons on Friday night.

Cronulla dropped its sixth straight game last week with a 10-point loss to the Rabbitohs, while the Dragons also backed up their strong win over the Bulldogs the week prior with a disappointing 44-18 loss at the hands of the Storm.

The Sharks took a 14-0 lead into the sheds when these two sides met back in March and did not look back on their way to a comfortable victory.

That win made it two straight for Cronulla over their fierce rivals, and with Shaun Johnson a decent chance at returning this week, there is a bit to like about the Sharks as the favourites.

The Dragons have been dealt another injury blow with Matt Dufty suffering a shoulder injury last week against the Storm, a worrying sign for a team that already leads the league in missed tackles.

Overall, it’s hard to feel good about either side, but the Sharks have an edge if Johnson plays.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Win & Over 44.5 Total Points @ $3.60

Gold Coast Titans Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Saturday May 22, 3:00pm, CBUS Super Stadium

The Titans have fallen well short of expectations so far this season, but they do have a perfect opportunity to steer the ship back in the right direction on Saturday against the Bulldogs.

Last week’s hiding at the hands of the Panthers proved to everyone that the Titans are still a big step away from hanging with the top four sides, but there could be some good news on the horizon with Ash Taylor a chance at returning from a hip injury.

The Bulldogs are still a few weeks away from seeing some of their troops return, but Dylan Napa could be the big inclusion this week after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury.

An upset isn’t off the cards given the Titans lost to the Broncos three weeks ago, but this game should be theirs to lose if they can manage to start on time.

The Titans have won two of their last three over the Dogs and have also played to a 3-0 record as the home favourite over the last 12 months.

Tip: Back the Titans to Win & Over 46.5 Total Points @ $2.40

Sydney Roosters Vs Brisbane Broncos

Saturday May 22, 5:30pm, SCG

If the Broncos haven’t already hit rock bottom, they’re about to.

Brisbane squares off against the Roosters this week in Sydney only seven days removed from an embarrassing 44-point defeat against Manly in the Magic Round.

Kevin Walters labeled that performance as one of the worst he’s seen in his time around the game, and although the Roosters are far from full strength, it’s very difficult to see this game not getting out of hand in a hurry.

Not only are the Roosters 5-0 at home this year, but they’ve also outscored the Broncos 117-12 in their last two contests.

Brisbane’s interior defence was carved apart last week by the Sea Eagles and things aren’t about to get any easier with lock Pat Carrigan done for the year after rupturing his ACL.

This is a generous line due to Sydney’s injuries, but it’s one they should be covering with ease.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-18 Points) @ $1.90

Canberra Raiders Vs Melbourne Storm

Saturday May 22, 7:35pm, GIO Stadium

The Raiders snapped their five-game losing streak last week with a win over the Dogs, but Ricky Stuart’s men still left a lot to be desired heading into a clash with the runaway Storm on Saturday.

Canberra staved off a gutsy fightback from Canterbury to walk away two-point victors, but they’ll need to improve drastically on that effort if they wish to knock off the top-scoring side in the comp.

Melbourne, meanwhile, cruised to its seventh straight win last week a dominant victory over the Dragons, although head coach Craig Bellamy will be sweating on Ryan Papenhuyzen’s status after the star fullback suffered a head knock.

Even so, the Storm proved to everyone last week that they have enough depth to overcome Cameron Munster’s injury, so even if Papz sits, they should be winning this game against a Canberra team that still can’t string together two consistent halves.

It’s also worth noting that 11 of the last 15 games between these two sides have gone Under the Total, so we could also be in for a low-scoring game if Canberra’s weather lives up to its reputation.

Tip: Back the Storm to Win & Under 45.5 Total Points @ $2.10

South Sydney Rabbitohs Vs Penrith Panthers

Sunday May 23, 2:00pm, Apex Oval

First and fourth take a trip to Dubbo this week for what could turn out to be a Grand Final preview.

Not surprisingly, the undefeated Panthers are heavy favourites to hand the half-strength Rabbitohs a loss on neutral turf.

Penrith manhandled the Titans last week in convincing 48-12 fashion, while the Rabbits bounced back from a shutout loss to the Storm to win big over the struggling Sharks.

Adding further spice to this matchup is the fact Latrell Mitchell is set to return from suspension, while Josh Mansour could be a potential inclusion after battling through a hamstring injury.

Even with a full squad though, this still looks a tough test for Wayne Bennett’s side.

The Panthers have won each of their last three contests against the Rabbitohs by narrow margins, and they have also been a much stronger defensive side when it comes to points conceded.

On the other side of the ball, the Panthers have scored 48 points in back-to-back weeks, so there’s no reason to believe the Penrith freight train is about to stop in a hurry.

Tip: Back the Panthers 1-12 @ $3.05

Parramatta Eels Vs Manly Sea Eagles

Sunday May 23, 4:05pm, Bankwest Stadium

Another top eight clash draws the round to a close with the Eels and the Sea Eagles both looking to add to their respective win streaks.

Parramatta made it five on the trot last week with a dominant victory over the Warriors, while the Sea Eagles made it back-to-back wins in a memorable 50-6 drubbing over the Broncos.

A win here for Manly would really shakeup the ladder with only four points between 3rd and 7th, but it’s hard to ignore the fact the Eels have managed to score 30 points or more in each of their last five games.

To be fair, Manly holds bragging rights over Parramatta after winning by four points when they met last July, but they’ll need to bring their best this time around with Kieran Foran out indefinitely with a hand injury.

Offensively, Parramatta might just be the third-best team behind the Panthers and Storm, and that is evident in the fact they rank third in points and tries this year.

Combine that with the Eels’ 4-1 record at home and their outstanding 9-1 record at the line this year, and it becomes increasingly difficult to fade Parramatta.

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.90

2020

The curveballs continued last week with the Panthers replacing the Eels atop the ladder and it appears we are in for another unpredictable round of footy!

Round 11 gets off to a fast start with a top-eight battle between the Eels and Tigers on Thursday night, followed by a classic rivalry game between the Sharks and Dragons on Saturday.

The Raiders and Rabbitohs also meet in a rematch of last year’s Prelim, so if you’re looking for some suggestions, our footy savant has you covered in our 2020 NRL Round 11 Preview below.

Parramatta Eels Vs Wests Tigers

Thursday July 23, 7:50pm, Bankwest Stadium

The Eels have been well supported to bounce-back from last weeks shock loss to Manly as they hope to reclaim the top spot on the ladder in their return to Bankwest.

Parramatta allowed three unanswered tries at Brookvale in the first half, but there were plenty of positives for coach Brad Arthur to take away after his side held Manly to a scoreless second half.

Speaking of shutouts, the Tigers will be looking to pick up where they left off at Leichhardt last week in their 48-0 demolition job over the Broncos.

Michael Maguire’s side have lost their last three games against the Eels, so they’ll need to be at their absolute best if they hope to cause one of the upsets of the season on Thursday night.

Not that they need it, but Parramatta might receive an added boost this week in the form of Mitchell Moses, who looks very close to returning from a calf injury.

The Tigers, meanwhile, could potentially receive some good news on the Robert Jennings front.

Injuries aside, the Eels have been a big money play on the back of a previous defeat and it is impossible to tip against them.

Over the last calendar year, the Eels have played to a 4-1 record following a previous loss, while it’s also worth noting the last four games between these two sides have all gone Over the Total.

Tip: Back the Eels to Win & Over 38.5 Total Points @ $2.70

North Queensland Cowboys Vs Manly Sea Eagles

Thursday July 24, 6:00pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium

A return home to North Queensland couldn’t have come at a better time for the Cowboys as they play their first game following Monday’s sacking of Paul Green.

Interim head coach Josh Hannay will take over for the remainder of the season as the Cowboys hope to rejoin the backlog of teams vying for a spot in the eight.

Despite losing their third consecutive game last week against the Panthers, North Queensland remarkably find themselves only four points below the seventh-placed Tigers on the ladder.

Likewise, the Sea Eagles face a similar situation following their gutsy win over Parramatta at home last week.

Manly’s 5-5 record is a direct reflection of the injuries they’ve suffered, but a win this week (alongside results going their way) could potentially vault the Sea Eagles back inside the top eight.

Jordan McLean could potentially return for the Cowboys this week, while Manly superstars Tom Trbojevic and Dylan Walker remain at least a fortnight away.

Manly has won its last two visits to North Queensland, so there’s lots to like about the Sea Eagles at the current quote.

It’s also tough to know what to expect from a team that has recently fired their coach, but with a handful of top names still on the sidelines, it’s safe to say the Cowboys should find this tough going.

Tip: Back Manly to Win @ $1.70

Brisbane Broncos Vs Melbourne Storm

Friday July 24, 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium

Things went from bad to miserable last week for the Broncos as they suffered an embarrassing shutout loss on Friday night to the Tigers.

The Storm were on the opposite end in their 42-6 thumping over the Titans on the Sunshine Coast, and not surprisingly, Melbourne find themselves as the odds-on favourites as they venture down the highway to Suncorp this week.

Ordinarily, this would be a blockbuster game, but considering how dreadful the Broncos have looked on defence since the restart, it’s tough to build a case for a Brisbane upset.

As we’ve seen a few times already this year, coach Anthony Semibold is looking to reshuffle his lineup in the hopes of providing a much-needed spark.

Anthony Milford will switch to fullback this week, while Brodie Croft slots in at five-eighth. Katoni Staggs returning is a huge plus, but the absence of Corey Oates going forward will be felt significantly.

For the Storm, there’s also good news on the wing with Suliasi Vunivalu a chance at returning from a two-game absence.

In terms of trends, the Storm have won seven straight over the Broncos dating back to 2016, but you will have to get creative with the market if you actually want to bet on this game.

The last four games between these two sides at Suncorp have gone Over the Total, so that looks to be the play here.

Tip: Back the Storm 13+ & Over 45.5 Total Points @ $2.03

New Zealand Warriors Vs Sydney Roosters

Saturday July 25, 3:00pm, Central Coast Stadium

The Warriors should easy prey for the Roosters on Saturday as they look to make amends for last week’s shortcomings against the Raiders.

The future for the Warriors looks unclear at best with several key players heading home this week, and if their Round 10 loss against the Sharks was anything to go by, we shouldn’t expect anything different.

Trent Robinson will be counting his blessings after Brett Morris was cleared of a broken jaw, while there’s equal concern for the Warriors’ Patrick Herbert as he goes through the concussion protocol.

It should come as no surprise to learn that the Roosters have been an outstanding betting play following a previous loss.

Straight up and at the line, the Chooks are 3-1 over the last calendar year, so this one really isn’t worth overcomplicating.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-24.5 Points) @ $2.00

Cronulla Sharks Vs St George Illawarra Dragons

Saturday July 25, 5:30pm, Jubilee Stadium

The Sharks and the Dragons write another chapter in their long-standing rivalry on Saturday with more than just local bragging rights on the line.

Cronulla could potentially move back inside the top eight with a win, while the Dragons are hoping to trade places with the Sharks by winning their third game on the trot.

These two sides met earlier in Round 5, a game the Dragons won comfortably 30-16 in Campbelltown. But if you’ve watched Cronulla play over the last month, things might just turn out a little closer here at Jubilee.

Sharks second-rower Briton Nikora could be rubbed out for this clash after last week’s shoulder charge, while Andrew Fifita and Matt Moylan are at least a week away from returning.

Tariq Sims is facing a similar suspension to Nikora.

Of the eight games, this is by far the toughest one to tip.

The Sharks have won two of their last three over St George, but the last month of footy from the Dragons has been mighty impressive.

Paul McGregor’s side took the Roosters and Raiders to the sword before winning back-to-back games over Manly and the Dogs – form that stacks up well against a Sharks side that was pummelled by the Panthers only a fortnight ago.

The Dragons are also 4-2 as the away underdog against Cronulla, so with equal value on offer head-to-head, take the +1.5 insurance at the line.

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+1.5 Points) @ $2.00

Canberra Raiders Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Saturday July 25, 7:35pm, GIO Stadium

The Raiders proved to the world that they aren’t to be taken lightly last week.

Canberra pulled off a season-defining win in the Grand Final rematch against the Roosters ,and they’ll now look to carry that momentum over in their return home to face the Rabbitohs at GIO.

South Sydney, meanwhile, find themselves right where the Raiders were a week ago.

The Rabbitohs are hoping to bounce-back from their narrow loss to the Knights, and although there were some positives in the final 10-minutes, the Bunnies will likely find this tough with a handful of their stars missing.

Latrell Mitchell is still serving his suspension, while James Roberts and Ethan Lowe are set to miss an indefinite number of games due to injury.

The Raiders are also black and blue, but Ricky Stuart’s side showed last week that they are more than capable of rallying when the troops are down.

If the Rabbitohs are short on motivation, they only need to draw on their Round 10 win over the Raiders in Canberra last year.

That said, the Raiders got the last laugh with a win at home a few month’s later in the Prelim.

The common trend in both of those games was the narrow margin, so take Canberra 1-12.

Tip: Back the Raiders 1-12 @ $2.70

Newcastle Knights Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Sunday July 26, 2:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium

The Knights have a fantastic opportunity to really cement themselves in the top four this week with a game against the struggling Bulldogs at hand.

Newcastle pulled out a gritty win over the Rabbitohs last week to improve to 6-1-3, while the Dogs remain at the very bottom of the table despite putting a scare into the Dragons last Saturday.

Knights coach Adam O’Brien will be hoping to make a statement against the competition cellar-dwellers, and he should fancy his chances after Bradman Best and Kalyn Ponga both returned to form last week in the win over South Sydney.

Of course, punter’s still might a little apprehensive about the Knights.

Newcastle hasn’t won back-to-back games since Rounds 1 and 2, while they’ve also lost four of their last five games against the Bulldogs.

With this game being played in Newcastle, it’s difficult to back Canterbury outright. That said, the Dogs are 2-0 as the away underdog at the line against the Knights, so there’s lots to like here with +14.5 points on offer.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+14.5 Points) @ $2.00

Gold Coast Titans Vs Penrith Panthers

Sunday July 26, 4:05pm, CBUS Super Stadium

A top v bottom battle concludes Round 11 with the Panthers looking to add to their five-game winning streak.

Penrith had their hands full in the first half last week against the Cowboys, but Ivan Cleary’s side managed to find an extra gear to win comfortably in the end.

The Titans also put up a gallant performance in the first half against the Storm, even though the final score doesn’t really reflect it.

A return home to CBUS couldn’t have come at a better time for Justin Holbrook’s squad, but as the odds suggest, it would take a mighty effort for the Titans to topple the ladder leaders on Sunday.

Not only have the Panthers won four of their last five games against the Titans, they also walked away 24-2 winners this time last year.

Cleary’s main job this week is to ensure his team doesn’t take the Gold Coast lightly, but with their Premiership credentials already in check, this should be another win.

Tip: Back the Panthers 1-12 @ $3.30


2019

We’re officially two weeks out from Origin, and with it come plenty of questions as things heat up on the NRL ladder.

This week we turn our attention towards a top-six clash between the Knights and the Roosters, followed by a classic Sunday afternoon rivalry between the Dragons and the Sharks.

Only two points separate fourth from eighth, so it’s safe to say this week holds huge finals implications. As always, we’ve tried to pick out a few winners in our 2019 NRL Round 11 Preview below.

Parramatta Eels Vs Penrith Panthers

Thursday May 23, 7:50pm, Western Sydney Stadium

Parramatta’s wild ride continued last weekend as sloppy goal line defence and a handful of errors cost the Eels a win against the Cowboys.

The Eels looked well on their way following Josh Hoffman’s dazzling intercept try to open the second half, right before Brad Arthur’s side shot themselves in the foot with 10-minutes to play allowing Tom Opacic to score the game-winner.

Things weren’t quite so close for the Panthers last week going down 30-10 against the Warriors at home. After a questionable start to the season, the wheels have well and truly fallen off as Penrith find themselves dead last on the ladder.

A trip to the energized Bankwest Stadium is the last thing Ivan Cleary needs right now. The Panthers have won three of their last five games against the Eels, but they’ll need to rewind back to their Round 1 loss to the Eels if they wish to turn things around this weekend.

Parramatta will take full confidence into this game knowing they piled on three unanswered tries against Penrith to start the season. Fullback Clinton Gutherson was particularly impressive on attack, helping the Eels to dominate possession,

Considering the Panthers rank dead last in tries scored this season, the Eels line defence should enjoy a much easier week. The Eels are also 4-1 against the line as the home favourite, so back Parramatta to cover.

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.85

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Manly Sea Eagles Vs Gold Coast Titans

Friday May 24, 6:00pm, Brookvale Oval

Full credit to Manly, they continue to show up week after week with a depleted roster.

The Sea Eagles now find themselves fifth on the ladder following last week’s thrilling 24-14 win over Cronulla at Shark Park, and if they can crack the scoreboard early against the Titans, there’s nothing stopping Manly from stringing together another important win.

For the Titans, things went from bad to worse last Saturday at home to the Bulldogs. Gold Coast led 12-0 inside the opening 10-minutes before Canterbury’s unanswered four-try onslaught put the game out of reach.

Gold Coast find themselves one spot from the bottom but still tied on points with the Panthers. The good news is the Titans have won two straight over Manly, but as the odds suggest, Garth Brennan’s side is in for a huge fight this week at Brookvale.

The Sea Eagles have won just one of their last three games at home against the Gold Coast, but as the Sharks found out last week, Manly are one of the few sides capable of playing a full 80-minutes.

Despite the Titans’ position on the ladder, Manly will enter this game knowing full well the Titans are capable of an upset. Still, there’s a lot left to be desired from team leaders like Ash Taylor, which should play into the hands of Addin Fonua-Blake and the rest of Manly’s potent forward line.

Tip: Back Manly 1-12 @ $3.00

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Newcastle Knights Vs Sydney Roosters

Friday May 24, 7:55pm, McDonald Jones Stadium

Don’t look now, but the Knights are sixth on the ladder.

There’s not much to say about Newcastle’s dominant win over the Dragons last week other than Kalyn Ponga, take a bow. The Knights star fullback scored a pair of tries and enjoyed a near-perfect 6/7 day in front of the posts, leading the charge as Newcastle piled on 45 points.

Sydney wasn’t quite so fortunate in Brisbane last week as the Roosters suffered their second loss of the season. It wasn’t a poor performance by any stretch of the imagination, but Sydney’s line defence certainly looked shaky as they once again struggled to maintain second half composure.

Looking ahead, this fixture hasn’t exactly been the most exciting in recent years. The Roosters have won six straight over the Knights dating back to 2014, while in other bad news, Trent Robinson’s side lost back-to-back games only once last year.

The Roosters are the rightful favourites this week on the road, a scenario they are 6-3 in against the line. Robinson’s team will be hungry after last week’s shortcomings, and considering the Knights’ 2-3 record at home, the Roosters should have no trouble covering.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90

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Canberra Raiders Vs North Queensland Cowboys

Saturday May 25, 3:00pm, GIO Stadium

Capitalizing on Parramatta’s mistakes helped the Cowboys over the line last week against the Eels.

North Queensland dominated the second half scoring two tries inside the final 20-minutes, leaving the Cowboys sitting just two points shy of a spot in the top eight.

Canberra slipped up last week, but it was to be expected against the Bunnies. Canberra didn’t go down without a fight in the 16-12 slugfest, and if it wasn’t for Jarrod Croker’s dropped ball on the line with three minutes to go, the Raiders probably would’ve walked away with the points.

Fortunately, Canberra can take confidence in the fact they’ve won three straight over the Cowboys. The Raiders have been installed as the favourite this week at home, which isn’t surprising considering the Cowboys haven’t won in Canberra since 2017.

North Queensland will take a lot of momentum into this game following last week’s victory, but their 1-3 record on the road suggests the Cowboys could be in for a long day.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are 5-1 straight-up as the home favourite over the last 12 months, but after last week’s slow scoreless first half, take the Half-Time/Full-Time market for some value.

Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: Cowboys/Raiders @ $7.00

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New Zealand Warriors Vs Brisbane Broncos

Saturday May 25, 5:30pm, Mt Smart Stadium

There was some real pride and passion about the Broncos last week, and for the first time this season, it was easy to buy into what Anthony Seibold’s team were selling.

Brisbane beat the reigning premiers by five-points at Suncorp, relieving some of the pressure after a very slow start to the season.

It now sets up what should be a fascinating trip to Auckland on Saturday night to face not only a Warriors side looking to string together their third straight win but also former teammate Kodi Nikorima.

New Zealand were all class last week against the Panthers, piling on three unanswered tries in the 30-10 victory. It was a big night for Patrick Herbert on the scoresheet slotting all seven conversion attempts as well as a handy first-half try.

The Warriors will hold fond memories of playing the Broncos following last year’s 26-6 victory in Round 18. Unfortunately, their previous game against Brisbane in Round 6 saw the Kiwis fall by nine points at home.

It’s well known that the Warriors have played a lot better on the road than they have at home over the last 18 months, which makes this week’s market even more intriguing.

The Broncos are 3-2 as the road underdog against the Warriors, and if they can play with the same kind of defensive pressure that they brought last week against the Roosters, Brisbane will be tough to stop.

That is easier said than done though against three electric backs like Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, David Fusitu’a and Ken Maumalo. Throw in the Nikorima storyline and New Zealand’s 4-3 record as the home favourite against the Broncos, and you have a winning Warriors formula.

Tip: Back the Warriors To Win @ $1.82

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South Sydney Rabbitohs Vs Wests Tigers

Saturday May 25, 7:35pm, ANZ Stadium

It appears this is Sam Burgess’ world and we are all just living in it.

The big second-rower was at his best again last week in the Rabbitohs’ 16-12 victory over the Raiders, a well-earned win that has kept the Bunnies on top of the ladder.

Things won’t come easy this week against the Tigers though, especially as Wests looks to make up for their heart-breaking defeat to the Storm.

Michael Maguire’s side turned up for a fight in Melbourne, only to come up short by an agonizing two points. Still, Tigers fans should take heart in the fact Josh Aloiai and Luke Brooks stepped up on the scoreboard.

These two sides met twice last year, but it’s the Round 25 meeting that will haunt the Tigers. Wests lost 51-10 in their season finale, adding further salt to the Tigers’ wound after missing out on a spot in the eight.

You can bet Maguire will be rallying the troops this week with revenge in mind. Despite the Rabbitohs dominance, they did show signs of weakness last week in Canberra, particularly through the middle as Sam Williams raced away for an impressive try in the second half.

The Bunnies survived by the skin of their teeth thanks to the Canberra’s last-minute mistakes, which leaves them looking overdue for a loss. Back the Tigers and their 6-4 record as the line underdog.

Tip: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (+8.5 Points) @ $1.80

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Canterbury Bulldogs Vs Melbourne Storm

Sunday May 26, 2:00pm, Belmore Oval

Canterbury sits two points clear of the cellar thanks to last week’s 22-16 win over the Titans.

Jayden Okunbor carried the Dogs for most of the game cashing in with a pair of tries, but it was a strong team effort from Dean Pay’s side to overcome sloppy errors, penalties, and most importantly, a lack of possession.

The Storm were on the right side of lady luck last week as they once again squeaked home against the Tigers. Melbourne have become a bit of a heart attack side this season, but fortunately, Will Chambers stepped up with a 77th try to see the Storm over the line last week.

This isn’t the most exciting Sunday matinee, but if it’s anything like their Round 4 meeting earlier this year, fans should be in for a real treat.

The Dogs were on the wrong side of the scoreboard that day losing 18-16, but they’ll take tremendous confidence into this game knowing Okunbor caused havoc in Melbourne’s back line.

With home-field advantage this time around, you can expect this game to be just as close. The Dogs have turned into the comeback kings of late storming back from a 16-0 deficit against the Titans last week. They pulled a similar stunt on Craig Bellamy’s side during their last meeting, so with a generous line on offer, back Canterbury to keep this close.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.90

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St George-Illawarra Dragons Vs Cronulla Sharks

Sunday May 26, 4:05pm, WIN Stadium

The NRL has saved the best ‘till last this week as the Dragons and Sharks do battle.

St. George has slipped all the way down to 12th on the ladder following last week’s blowout loss to the Knights, while the Sharks also find themselves outside the eight after their own 10-point loss to Manly.

No matter where these two sides sit on the ladder though, you can always expect plenty of fireworks in this epic rivalry. The pair combined for 60-points when they met in Round 6 last year, a game the Dragons must hold particularly fond memories of after clean sweeping the Sharks in the two-game series.

Cronulla last won on the road against the Dragons back in 2017, but you’d be best off sticking with the Total in this one. Neither side has looked particularly convincing over the last two weeks, while both also rank in the bottom half of the league in tries and points.

Despite last year’s points-fest in Round 6, the previous three meetings all totalled well Under 40 points. Play it safe and back this one to be low scoring.

Tip: Under 39.5 Total Points @ $1.88

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2018

Backing underdogs continues to be a profitable play in the NRL this season and betting outsiders won six of the eight games played last weekend.

There are a number of teams under plenty of pressure this weekend and there are intriguing story lines ahead of every single game.

We have analysed all eight fixtures set to take place from Thursday to Sunday and our complete NRL Round 11 tips can be found below.

Penrith Panthers Vs Wests Tigers

Thursday 17 May, 7:50pm, Panthers Stadium

https://vimeo.com/269785778

The Penrith Panthers have won their past three games against the Wests Tigers and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

Penrith returned to winning form with a professional effort against the Newcastle Knights and they have proven very tough to beat at Panthers Stadium this weekend.

The Panthers have won eight of of their past nine games at the venue and they have covered the line in seven of these wins.

Wests ended their losing streak with a strong win over the North Queensland Cowboys and they have proven to be a profitable betting side on the road this season.

The Tigers have won four of their past 11 games as away underdogs and they are 8-3 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market does look to have just about right, but their is value in the Total Points betting market.

Backing the Under in games involved either of these teams has been a profitable betting play this season and the Tigers in particular have been a strong Unders team.

Back Under 40.5 Points

[matchmodule matchid=" 55031440" no="1"]

Parramatta Eels Vs New Zealand Warriors

Friday 18 May, 6:00pm, ANZ Stadium

https://vimeo.com/269785803

This is a tricky game to analyse from a betting perspective.

The New Zealand Warriors have produced two very poor performances in their past three games, but they will still go into this clash as favourites.

This is the first time they will start an away game as favourites in over 12 months and they are always a tough team to trust from a betting perspective away from New Zealand.

The Parramatta Eels produced another poor effort to go down to the Canterbury Bulldogs last weekend and they have still only won two games this season.

Parramatta have won three of their past six games as home underdogs for a profit and they have generally had the upper hand over the Warriors in front of their home fans.

It is tough to back the Eels with confidence, but taking on the Warriors in coming weeks could prove to be a profitable betting play.

Back Parramatta To Win @ $2.10

[matchmodule matchid=" 55032018" no="2"]

Brisbane Broncos Vs Sydney Roosters

Friday 18 May, 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium

https://vimeo.com/269785820

The Brisbane Broncos’ season hit a new low when they went down to the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend and they will go into this clash as clear underdogs.

Brisbane leaked 38 points against a Manly side that hadn’t won a game for almost two months and they have now conceded over 20 points in four consecutive games.

The home side has won the past eight games played between these two sides, but the Broncos have won only one of their past three games as home underdogs for a loss.

The Sydney Roosters returned to their best with an emphatic victory over the New Zealand Warriors, but stringing together performances like that has been their issue this season.

Sydney have recorded five wins from their past six games as away favourites, but they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market does look to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

[matchmodule matchid=" 55030946" no="3"]

Gold Coast Titans Vs Newcastle Knights

Saturday 19 May, 3:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium

https://vimeo.com/269785894

This is a crucial game for both these sides.

The Newcastle Knights have lost two games on the trot and they desperately need to return to winning form to get their finals ambitions back on track.

This is the first time that the Knights have started an away game as favourites for over 12 months and they have won only four of their past 13 games on the road for a small loss.

The Gold Coast Titans played some solid football at times, but they still slumped to their fifth loss on the trot when they went down to the Melbourne Storm last weekend.

Gold Coast have won four of their past seven games as home underdogs and they are 5-2 against the line in this scenario.

The home side has generally had the upper hand in the rivalry between the Titans and the Knights and the Titans may never have a better chance to return to winning form.

Back Gold Coast To Win @ $2

[matchmodule matchid=" 55032402" no="4"]

North Queensland Cowboys Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Saturday 19 May, 5:30pm, 1300SMILES Stadium

https://vimeo.com/269785926

The North Queensland Cowboys have an excellent record against the South Sydney Rabbitohs, but they will still start this clash as underdogs.

South Sydney stamped themselves as the real deal with their impressive win over the St George Illawarra Dragons on Sunday and they have now won four of their past five games.

Winning away from home does continue to be an issue for the Rabbitohs and their record in Townsville is poor – they have won only one of their past six games at 1300SMILES Stadium for a clear loss.

The Cowboys produced another uninspiring performance against the Wests Tigers last Thursday night and they simply have too many players that aren’t playing at anywhere near their best.

It is almost impossible to trust the Cowboys from a betting perspective and they have won only one of their past four games as home underdogs, while their record against the line isn’t any better.

Backing the Under in games involving the Cowboys continues to be a profitable betting play and the Under has saluted in nine of their past 11 games at 1300SMILES Stadium.

As their attack continues to fulter, there is no reason that the Under won’t be a winning betting play once again.

Back Under 38.5 Points

[matchmodule matchid=" 55044992" no="5"]

Melbourne Storm Vs Manly Sea Eagles

Saturday 19 May, 7:35pm, AAMI Park

https://vimeo.com/269785872

The rivalry between the Melbourne Storm and the Manly Sea Eagles has been one of the fiercest of the past 15 years and there is no love lost between these two teams.

It is the Storm that will start this clash as clear favourites, but they are likely to go into this game without inspirational captain Cameron Smith due to his suspension for a wishbone tackle on Kevin Proctor last weekend.

The loss of Smith will put the pressure on the rest of this Storm outfit, but they should still prove too strong for the Sea Eagles.

Melbourne have won 13 of their past 14 games as home favourites and they are 9-5 against the line in this scenario.

Manly returned to winning form with a brilliant performance against the Brisbane Broncos and Daly Cherry-Evans was particularly impressive.

Cherry-Evans only has a couple of weeks left to prove himself to Queensland State Of Origin selectors and he will once again be key to the chances of his side.

The Sea Eagles won three of their past seven games as away underdogs and they have been a middling 3-1-3 against the line in this scenario.

The market may have overreacted slightly to the absence of Smith and the Storm should have few issues covering the line of 6.5 points.

Back Melbourne To Cover The Line (-6.5 Points)

[matchmodule matchid=" 55032129" no="6"]

St George Illawarra Dragons Vs Canberra Raiders

Sunday 20 May, 2:00pm, Glen Willow Oval

https://vimeo.com/269786025

The St George Illawarra Dragons suffered their second defeat of the season last weekend, but they will still start this clash with the Canberra Raiders as dominant favourites.

St George Illawarra have elected to take this home game to Glen Willow Oval in Mudgee and that could be an issue for a side that generally do produce their best football at either Jubilee Oval or WIN Stadium.

The Dragons have won 10 of their past 12 games as home favourites, but they are a woeful 1-5 as favourites on the road.

Canberra lacked composure at key times against the Cronulla Sharks last weekend and that is what cost them their third defeat on the trot.

The Raiders have actually performed better on the road than away from home this season and they have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs for a profit.

I don’t think that there is as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests and the Raiders appeal at their current odds of $3.10.

Back Canberra To Win @ $3.10

[matchmodule matchid=" 55045739" no="7"]

Cronulla Sharks Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Sunday 20 May, 4:10pm, Southern Cross Group Stadium

https://vimeo.com/269785852

The Cronulla Sharks just keep on finding a way to win and they will start this clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs as favourites.

Cronulla came from behind to make it four wins on the trot with a tough effort against the Canberra Raiders last weekend and they continue to be one of the most underrated sides in the competition.

The Sharks have been a tough side to trust from a betting perspective at home over the past 12 months and they have won only four of their past nine games as home favourites, while they are a woeful 1-8 against the line in this scenario.

Canterbury were able to return to winning form with a fighting win over the Parramatta Eels and they really haven’t been disgraced in any game so far this season.

The Bulldogs have won only three of their past 14 games as away underdogs for a loss and they are 6-8 against the line in this scenario.

This shapes as being another close affair between these two sides and the Bulldogs are capable of covering the line with a start of 5.5 points.

Back Canterbury To Cover The Line (+5.5 Points)

[matchmodule matchid=" 55046045" no="8"]

State Of Origin is just around the corner and this is the final round of NRL action before the teams are selected for the opening game of the 2017 State Of Origin Series.

This continues to be a particularly even NRL season and there are only eight competition points separating second and 15th.

That means we are set for a number of very competitive games this weekend and below you can find our complete NRL Round 11 tips.

Cronulla Sharks Vs North Queensland Cowboys

Thursday 18 May, 7:50pm, Southern Cross Group Stadium

Cronulla Sharks 18 - North Queensland Cowboys 14

The Cronulla Sharks’ premiership defence continues to chug along nicely and they will start this clash with the North Queensland Cowboys as clear favourites.

Cronulla were at their fighting best against the St George Illawarra Dragons last Friday night and they will fancy their chances against a Cowboys side that they had the wood on last season.

The Sharks have not been the best betting play as home favourites and they have won six of their past nine games in this scenario, while they are 3-6 against the line.

The return of both Jake Granville and Lachlan Coote were massive for the Cowboys last weekend and they were able to get the job done against the Canterbury Bulldogs without Johnathan Thurston in the side.

North Queensland will need to be just as good to have any chance against Cronulla and there is little hope that the Sharks will play as badly as Canterbury did Thursday night.

The Cowboys have won only two of their past six games as away favourites and they are a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

The betting play that really does stand out in this clash is Unders in the Total Points betting market.

Cronulla continue to be one of the best defensive sides in the entire NRL and the Cowboys do struggle for consistency in attack without Thurston in the side.

Back Under 37.5 Points

[matchmodule matchid=" 31926475" no="1"]

New Zealand Warriors Vs St George Dragons

Friday 19 May, 6:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium

New Zealand Warriors 14 - St George Illawarra Dragons 30

This will be the second meeting between these two sides in less than two months.

The St George Illawarra Dragons were successful earlier this season, but it is the New Zealand Warriors that will go into this clash as clear favourites.

New Zealand have won six of their past ten games as home favourites, but they are a particularly poor 1-9 against the line in this scenario and their overall record against the St George Illawarra Dragons is horrendous.

The Dragons have lost three games on the trot, but they have been more than competitive in all three of these games against some of the best sides in the competition.

They have won only two of their past seven games as away underdogs, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

There is nowhere near as much between these two sides as the current odds suggest and the Dragons are an excellent bet to cover the line with a start of six points.

Back St George Illawarra Dragons To Beat The Line (+6 Points)

[matchmodule matchid=" 31926543" no="2"]

Brisbane Broncos Vs Wests Tigers

Friday 19 May, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane Broncos 36 - Wests Tigers 0

The Brisbane Broncos came from behind to beat the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend and they are dominant favourites to account for the Wests Tigers.

Brisbane could hardly have been slower out of the gates against Manly, but they were able to finish over the top of their rivals in impressive fashion.

The Broncos have now won five games on the trot and they have won nine of their past 13 games as home favourites, but they are only 5-8 against the line in this situation.

Wests produced one of their worst performances of the season against South Sydney last weekend and it is tough to back them off that effort.

In saying that, Wests do have a strong record away from home over the past 12 months – they have won four of their past ten games as away underdogs and they are 6-1-3 against the line in this scenario.

The Broncos should be able to take the two points, but the line of 13.5 points does seem excessive and this game is likely to be closer than the market suggests.

Back Wests Tigers To Beat The Line (+13.5 Points)

[matchmodule matchid=" 31926604" no="3"]

Gold Coast Titans Vs Manly Sea Eagles

Saturday 20 May, 5:30pm, Cbus Super Stadium

Gold Coast Titans 10 - Manly Sea Eagles 30

The Gold Coast Titans produced their best performance of the season to date to score a stunning win over the Melbourne Storm last weekend and they will start this clash with Manly as clear favourites.

Gold Coast could hardly have been more impressive against Melbourne and that is a performance that they are sure to take a great deal of confidence out of.

The Titans have won three of their past five games as home favourites for a loss, but they do have the same record against the line for a profit.

Manly raced out to a big lead early against the Brisbane Broncos, but they fell to pieces in the second half.

Despite that loss, Manly continue to be one of the best betting sides in the NRL this season.

The Sea Eagles have won three of their past nine games as away underdogs for a profit and they are 6-3 against the line in this scenario.

There is not as much between these two teams as the current market suggests and Manly are a good value bet at their current quote.

Back Manly Sea Eagles To Win @ $2.35

[matchmodule matchid=" 31926679" no="4"]

Parramatta Eels Vs Canberra Raiders

Saturday 20 May, 7:30pm, ANZ Stadium

Parramatta Eels 16 - Canberra Raiders 22

This is a crucial game for both these sides that are coming off lacklustre defeats last weekend.

The Canberra Raiders slumped to their third straight defeat at the hands of the Newcastle Knights and their season is now at crisis point.

Canberra have still won five of their past seven games as away favourites and they have the same record against the line..

Parramatta were flogged by the Sydney Roosters last weekend to end their losing streak and they continue to struggle for consistency.

The Eels have actually won four of their past six games as home underdogs for a profit, but their record against the Raiders in front of their home fans is poor.

Both these teams are incredibly tough to trust from a betting standpoint and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash.

No Bet

[matchmodule matchid=" 31926746" no="5"]

Newcastle Knights Vs Penrith Panthers

Sunday 21 May, 2:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium

Newcastle Knights 20 - Penrith Panthers 30

The Penrith Panthers came from behind to beat the New Zealand Warriors last weekend and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

Penrith were able to end their winning streak last weekend, but they still were not overly impressive and their continues to be big question marks over their attack.

The Panthers have won only three of their past six games as away favourites and they continue to be a very tough team to trust from a betting standpoint.

Newcastle were excellent against the Canberra Raiders, but their issue has been stringing together those sort of performances.

The Knights have still won only two of their past 13 games as home underdogs and they are 4-9 against the line in this scenario.

It is tough to trust either of these sides from a betting perspective, but one play that does stand out is the Unders as the Total Points line has been set at 45.5 points.

The Under has saluted in nine of the past 13 home games played by the Newcastle Knights and backing the Under in Penrith games has been a profitable play over the past 12 months.

Back Under 45.5 Points

[matchmodule matchid=" 31926872" no="6"]

Canterbury Bulldogs Vs Sydney Roosters

Sunday 21 May, 4:00pm, ANZ Stadium

Canterbury Bulldogs 18 - Sydney Roosters 24

The Sydney Roosters returned to winning form against the Parramatta Eels and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

Sydney showed just what they are capable of with the ball in hand and a similar performance would see them prove too strong for the Canterbury Bulldogs.

The Roosters have won nine of their past 12 games as favourites and they are a middling 6-6 against the line in this scenario.

Canterbury could hardly have been worse against the North Queensland Cowboys and it seems impossible to think they could play that badly again.

The Bulldogs have won only four of their past 13 games as underdogs and they are 6-7 against the line in this situation.

This is a game that the Roosters really should be able to win, but there is no real value at their current price.

No Bet

[matchmodule matchid=" 31926947" no="7"]

South Sydney Rabbitohs Vs Melbourne Storm

Sunday 21 May, 6:30pm, NIB Stadium

South Sydney Rabbitohs 6 - Melbourne Storm 14

The Melbourne Storm suffered a shock defeat at the hands of the Gold Coast Titans on Saturday, but they will still go into this clash as clear favourites.

Melbourne’s performance against the Titans was uncharacteristically poor and there is no doubt that coach Craig Bellamy was tough on his side after they leaked that many points.

The Storm continue to be a strong betting proposition and they have won 20 of their past 25 games as favourites, while they are a profitable betting play against the line when giving away a start.

South Sydney returned to winning form with a comfortable win over the Wests Tigers, but this is obviously a much tougher assignment.

They have elected to take this home game to Perth and they have won five of their past eight games in Western Australia, but they have won only five of their past 16 games as underdogs.

Melbourne have not suffered back-to-back losses in over 12 months and they should be able to return to winning form in comfortable fashion.

Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (-8 Points)

[matchmodule matchid="31927027" no="1"]

2016

This is the final round before the teams for the opening game of the 2016 State Of Origin Series are selected, so there will be a number of players in all 16 teams that have plenty to play for.

The highlight of round 11 is undoubtedly the Grand Final rematch between the North Queensland Cowboys and the Brisbane Broncos at 1300 Smiles Stadium on Friday night, but there are a number of other intriguing fixtures.

The round starts with what is always a key game between the South Sydney Rabbitohs and St George Dragons before the Canterbury Bulldogs and Sydney Roosters do battle in a Sunday afternoon blockbuster.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Vs St George Dragons

Thursday 19 May, 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium

South Sydney Rabbitohs 34 - St George Illawarra Dragons 24

The South Sydney Rabbitohs have an excellent record against St George in recent season and they have won seven of the last eight games played between the two sides.

South Sydney looked down and out against the Parramatta Eels last weekend, but they produced some desire that had clearly been missing in 2016, to record a very exciting victory.

They will start this game against the Dragons as clear favourites and they have proven to be a far from reliable betting proposition in just scenario – they have won six of their past nine game as home favourites for a narrow loss, while they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

St George Illawarra Dragons also scored a remarkable victory against the Canberra Raiders last weekend and there is no doubt that they have improved significantly in the past 12 months.

In saying that, the Dragons have still been a very poor betting proposition and they have won just one of their past ten games as away underdogs and are 3-7 against the line in this scenario.

The one betting play that does stand out is backing the under in total points betting market.

The under has saluted in 12 out of the past 14 away games played by the Dragons, while 59 percent of the games played on Thursday nights since 2013 have gone under.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 38.5 Points

[matchmodule matchid="15677258" no="1"]

North Queensland Cowboys Vs Brisbane Broncos

Friday 20 May, 7:50pm, 1300 Smiles Stadium

North Queensland Cowboys 19 - Brisbane Broncos 18

This will be the second Grand Final rematch between the North Queensland Cowboys and Brisbane Broncos in 2016 after the Broncos scored a thrilling golden point victory earlier this season.

The Cowboys have not lost at 1300 Smiles Stadium this season and they will go into this game as favourites, despite suffering a one point defeat at the hands of the Melbourne Storm last weekend.

North Queensland have won 15 of their past 20 games as favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is a profitable 12-8.

Brisbane returned to winning form with a typically professional performance against the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend and following the Cowboys loss last weekend they have now returned to the top of the table.

The Broncos have proven to be a very profitable betting side as underdogs in the past 12 months and they have won a most impressive four of their past five games in this scenario and are undefeated across this time frame when being given a start against the line.

I am expecting this to be another thriller, but the value definitely lies with the Broncos and they are a good bet to record an upset win at their current price of $2.10.

Recommended Bet: Back The Brisbane Broncos To Win @ $2.10

[matchmodule matchid="15677279" no="2"]

Wests Tigers Vs Newcastle Knights

Saturday 21 May, 3:00pm, Campbelltown Stadium

Wests Tigers 20 - Newcastle Knights 12

The Newcastle Knights’ disastrous season took another hit when they suffered a 62-0 defeat at the hands of the Cronulla Sharks last weekend and they are a side has just been completely outclassed so far this season.

They will start this game as clear underdogs and this is one of the many metrics in which the Knights have been a losing betting proposition in the past 12 months.

The Knights are 2-10 as away favourites across that time period and are a very poor 4-8 against the line in that scenario.

The Wests Tigers also come into this game of the back of a poor performance and their form as betting team has not been much better.

It is somewhat of a myth that the Tigers always play better at home and they have won just 1 of their past five game as home favourites and they have an identical record against the line.

There is little reason to have any faith in these teams from a betting perspective, but the over in total points betting markets does appeal due to the poor defense of both sides.

The over has saluted in 15 of the past 24 games played by both these sides and it is the only bet that I am keen to appeal in this fixture.

Recommended Bet: Back The Over (40.5 Points)

[matchmodule matchid="15677314" no="3"]

New Zealand Warriors Vs Canberra Raiders

Saturday 21 May, 5:30pm, Yarrow Stadium

New Zealand Warriors 12 - Canberra Raiders 38

This should be a very exciting fixture between two of the most inconsistent teams in the NRL.

The Canberra Raiders were their own worst enemies against the St George Illawarra Dragons and they literally threw the game away in golden point to record their fourth loss in five games.

They go into this game as narrow underdogs, but this is generally the position in which they play their best football and they are 5-2 against the line as away underdogs in the past 12 months.

New Zealand produced another disappointing performance to go down to the Penrith Panthers last weekend and they continue to struggle – especially defensively.

It should come as no surprise that the Warriors have a non profitable 4-4 record as home favourites in the last 12 months and they are 3-5 against the line in this scenario.

It is tough to have any faith in either of these teams from a betting perspective, but I expect the Raiders to come out hungry and they do appeal at their current price of $2.

Recommended Bet: Back Canberra Raiders To Win @ $2

[matchmodule matchid="15677382" no="4"]

Cronulla Sharks Vs Manly Sea Eagles

Saturday 21 May, 7:30pm, Shark Park

Cronulla Sharks 20 - Manly Sea Eagles 12

The Cronulla Sharks could potentially finish this round as outright competition leaders and it is fair to say that they are the form side in the competition.

The Sharks are usually renowned for their grinding style of football, but the likes of Jack Bird and Valentine Holmes have added some excitement to the side and they put a brutal beating on the Knights last weekend.

Cronulla will start this game as clear favourites and they have won 11 of their past 13 games as the punter’s elect, while they have beaten the line in nine of their past 13 games when giving away a start.

Manly produced another uninspiring performance against the Brisbane Broncos last weekend and they have now lost three of their past four games – with the only win coming against the struggling Newcastle Knights.

The Sea Eagles have just failed to click this season and the Dylan Walker at five-eight experiment clearly has not worked.

In saying that, Manly have a surprisingly strong record as underdogs in the past 12 months and backing the Sea Eagles in both head-to-head and line betting markets when they are giving away a start has been profitable.

I think that Cronulla will continue their winning, but their is no edge at their current price and the market seems to have gotten this game just about right.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

[matchmodule matchid="15677398" no="5"]

Penrith Panthers Vs Gold Coast Titans

Sunday 22 May, 2:00pm, Pepper Stadium

Penrith Panthers 24 - Gold Coast Titans 28

Both the Penrith Panthers and Gold Coast Titans come into this race on the back of confidence building wins in round 10.

The Panthers were excellent against the New Zealand Warriors last weekend and they recorded just their second back-to-back wins in 12 months.

Penrith will go into this game as fairly short-priced favourites and this is not a position in which they have thrived in the past 12 months – they are 4-4 in head to head betting and 3-1-4 against the line.

The Titans produced arguably their best performance of the season to date to record an impressive victory over the Sydney Roosters and Nathan Peats is set to make his debut for the club this weekend.

The problem for the Gold Coast is that they have really struggled away from home in the past 12 months and they have won just two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, while they are 5-6 against the line in this scenario.

This is another fixture where there is not a great deal of betting value on offer and I am more than happy to stay out.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

[matchmodule matchid="15677416" no="6"]

Canterbury Bulldogs Vs Sydney Roosters

Sunday 22 May, 4:00pm, ANZ Stadium

Canterbury Bulldogs 32 - Sydney Roosters 20

There has never been any love lost between the Canterbury Bulldogs and the Sydney Roosters and this is a crucial game for both sides.

Canterbury returned to their best form with their dominant victory over the Wests Tigers and they will go into this game as narrow favourites.

The Bulldogs have been a fairly unreliable betting proposition as favourites in the past 12 months and they are a very poor 4-7 against the line as home favourites.

The Roosters had the majority of their big guns back against the Gold Coast Titans on Monday night and they were in it for a long way, but they fell apart in the last 20 minutes.

They have actually proven to be a profitable betting team as underdogs in the past 12 months and they are 4-1 against the line as away underdogs.

It would not surprise if the Roosters came out and won this fixture, but I am still keen to back them with a start of 4.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Sydney Roosters To Beat The Line (+4.5 Points)

[matchmodule matchid="15677432" no="7"]

Parramatta Eels Vs Melbourne Storm

Monday 23 May, 7:00pm, Pirtek Stadium

Parramatta Eels 6 - Melbourne Storm 18

The Parramatta Eels went through the week from hell last week and that hit a peak when they gave away a big lead to lose to South Sydney last weekend.

It is tough to assess the Eels at the moment because they are clearly a club in crisis and it is a fairly big surprise that they have opened as favourites for this fixture.

I am sure they will be keen to impressive their home fans, but you can’t hide the fact that they have won just one of their past four games as home favourites and have been a losing betting proposition at Pirtek Stadium in general.

Melbourne made it four wins on the trot with an outstanding performance against the North Queensland Cowboys last weekend and they have every chance to make it five wins in a row on Monday night.

The Storm are a profitable 3-4 against the line as underdogs and their record away from home across the board is also a positive 7-5.

At $2, they are one of the best bets of the weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back The Melbourne Storm To Win @ $2

[matchmodule matchid="15677452" no="8"]