A full eight-match schedule awaits in NRL Round 18, which features some major additions to and subtractions from the casualty ward.

Souths are looking to continue their roll on Thursday night, Brisbane is among several teams aiming to stop the mid-season rot at home, while there’s three big swing clashes that will help break up (or further tighten) the midtable logjam that sees three points separate fifth and 13th on the NRL ladder.

Read on for our best bets and previews for this weekend’s action in the NRL.

From the story’s most disappointing decline, South Sydney is shaping as 2024’s miracle-in-waiting – and the Rabbitohs take another step on their resurgent journey on Thursday night against the ailing Parramatta Eels.

Both clubs sacked their coaches mid-season and, ironically, Souths’ turnaround began with a 42-26 victory over Parramatta in Round 12.

The Bunnies have subsequently pieced together a four-match winning streak, finding some defensive resolve to concede just 24 points across their wins over the Titans, Broncos and Sea Eagles (after leaking 26-plus points in 10 of their first 11 games) before last week’s third bye.

Latrell Mitchell is back to top form and Cameron Murray’s return from injury has also been significant; both were excellent after getting Blues recalls for game two.

A week after last encountering the Rabbitohs, the Eels got Mitch Moses and Clint Gutherson back from injury and rolled Cronulla 34-22.

But the spike was temporary for the team being run by caretaker Trent Barrett, losing their last three to the Bulldogs, Roosters and Knights.

The blue-and-golds faded in Newcastle last Saturday, conceding three of the last four tries in a 34-26 result, having conceded 20-plus points in their last 11 games and are tied for last place.

Parramatta will debut winger Jake Tago and back-rower Charlie Guymer, with Maika Sivo injured and Makahesi Makatoa out.

Mitchell and Murray return after missing the 14-0 shutout of Manly on Origin duty.

Souths have won seven of the teams’ last eight encounters, including the last three at Commbank Stadium.

As only $1.68 favourites in this one, the Rabbitohs look excellent value to chalk up their fifth straight win, with the Eels losing three of their last five at home.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-3.5) @ $1.90

SGM: RABBITOHS WIN / UNDER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CLINT GUTHERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $92.22

It’s feeling like make-or-break time for Cronulla – despite its top-four standing – after four losses from five games, while 15th-placed Gold Coast has proved itself as one of the most dangerous, and most inscrutable, teams in the NRL.

The Sharks are on a nine-match winning streak against the Titans, including a 36-6 triumph in the Shire in their sole clash last season.

Their current run includes two victories at Coffs Harbour, where the Sharks are unbeaten in three matches after beginning to take a game there in 2021.

But the former ladder leaders went down to the Dolphins at home (30-28) and the Bulldogs in golden point at Accor Stadium (15-14) either side of the Round 16 bye.

Dumped NSW No.7 Nicho Hynes is struggling for confidence and came under fire for failing to ice last week’s game in extra-time.

Daniel Atkinson, who starred in a brief stint at five-eighth, replaces a concussed Sione Katoa on the wing in the Sharks’ only change.

The Titans bounced back from a terrible fortnight, in which they lost to the Rabbitohs (46-12) and Tigers (18-10), with a staggering, record-shattering 66-6 upset of the Warriors before enjoying the bye last weekend.

Kieran Foran was in vintage form against one of his former clubs, while Alofiana Khan-Pereira blazed over for four tries.

AJ Brimson returns in time to replace injured five-eighth Jayden Campbell, who has been on fire.

Jojo Fifita is also back, with Phil Sami going to centre and Beau Fermor reverting to the pack. Moe Fotuaika is back after missing the Warriors game on Origin duty.

It’s impossible to know which incarnation of the Titans will turn up in Coffs Harbour, but the Sharks – $1.42 favourites in this one – inspire little confidence currently.

With seven of the Titans’ last 11 games (and three of the Sharks’ last six) producing over 50 points, though, the over does appeal here.

Tip: Back Over 47.5 Total Points @ $1.90

SGM: CRONULLA BY 1-12 POINTS / TITANS OVER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / RONALDO MULITALO TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $68.70

The second grand final rematch of the season sees both sides missing their gun No.7s, with Brisbane is under immense pressure after losing four in a row and Penrith has not been able to enjoy its customary smooth ride through the Origin period.

The Broncos have tumbled out of the Top 8 thanks to successive losses to the Titans, Sharks, Rabbitohs and Warriors, a period that has also encompassed two byes.

Perhaps the most worrying stat around Kevin Walters’ side is that their last win was in Magic Round.

Errors, a lack of playmaking impetus and the Warriors’ overwhelming dominance in the middle of the park were key factors in their 32-16 defeat in Auckland last Saturday.

Reece Walsh, Pat Carrigan and Payne Haas all return after being rested last week, but Kotoni Staggs is on compassionate leave which sees Deine Mariner move to centre and Corey Oates come back on the wing.

The second-placed Panthers are also looking to regain some momentum after coming off the bye with a 16-6 home loss to the Cowboys, with both sides sitting out a host of Origin stars.

Issah Yeo was the only Blues rep to back up, but Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o, Jarome Luai and Liam Martin are back in the line-up this week.

The Panthers romped to a 34-12 home win over the Reynolds-less Broncos in Round 3, with Reece Walsh’s early exit a factor.

Izack Tago and Brian To’o both scored double in the Panthers’ seventh win from their last eight against the Broncos.

Penrith has also won the teams’ last four encounters at Suncorp Stadium, restricting the hosts to 12 points or less each time.

As well as Carrigan and Haas matching the Penrith middles, Walsh is the obvious key to a Broncos turnaround – but they need to be getting more out of the likes of strike players Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo.

The Panthers have largely struggled to put teams to the sword without Cleary, so this shapes as a tight low-scorer.

Tip: Back Under 45.5 Total Points @ $1.90

SGM: BRONCOS +4.5 / 31-40 TOTAL POINTS / SUNIA TURUVA AND JESSE ARTHARS TO HAVE 2+ TRIES COMBINED @ $22.87

Canterbury is aiming to consolidate its position as 2024’s most impressive improver, while the Warriors are desperate to avoid the season’s ‘biggest slider’ tag as former Penrith assistants Cameron Ciraldo and Andrew Webster plot one another’s downfall in this mouth-watering Saturday afternoon clash.

The fifth-placed Bulldogs have discovered the defensive resolve and consistency that underpinned the Warriors’ 2023 charge.

They boast the second-best points conceded per game record in the NRL and haven’t conceded more than 26 points in 2024.

After a disappointing 26-8 loss to the Roosters in Round 16, the Bulldogs chalked up their fourth win in five games via a 15-14 golden point eclipse of Cronulla – despite playing below their best and failing to score a try in the second half.

The Warriors have been wildly erratic but have won four of their last six, recovering from a horrific 66-6 loss on the Gold Coast with a reasonably encouraging 32-16 win over an under-strength Broncos outfit at Mt Smart.

They struggled to put away the visitors after leading 16-0, but the performances of halves Te Maire Martin and Chanel Harris-Tavita, and returning NSW squad member Mitch Barnett were huge pluses.

The Warriors are unchanged, while the Bulldogs are bolstered by the return of fullback Connor Tracey and utility Kurt Mann.

The last six head to head meetings have gone the way of the Warriors, including hard-fought wins at home (16-14) and away (24-12) last season in the initial clashes between Webster and Ciraldo.

The Warriors are on a three-match winning run at Accor Stadium, but the Bulldogs have won their last six at their most frequent home venue – their best streak since 2012.

Installed as $1.50 favourites, this is a gilt-edged opportunity for the Bulldogs to confirm their status as a deserving finalist.

The Warriors, meanwhile, could build a late charge to the playoffs on the back of a win here…but it will be a tough road from here on in if they come up empty.

Expect that desperation to be reflected in the intensity of the contest – but it’s the Bulldogs with the edge.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.85

SGM: WARRIORS +5.5 / UNDER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.43

After another brief two-game spurt, Wests Tigers returned to wooden-spoon form in Round 17.

They will be aiming to parlay the Leichhardt factor into one of the season’s biggest boilovers against ladder-leading Melbourne Storm.

The Tigers beat the Titans (18-10) and Raiders (48-24) back-to-back at home to briefly climb off the bottom of the ladder, before crashing 40-6 to the Roosters at Allianz last Sunday and reclaim last place.

Charlie Staines is back on the wing with Solomona Faatape moving to centre and Brent Naden dropping out, John Bateman will start, while Justin Olam is listed in the reserves.

The Storm have pulled four points clear of the competition with four straight wins, despite rarely putting in a dominant 80-minute performance all year.

The wins over the Knights (36-28), Warriors (38-24), Dolphins (30-24) and Raiders (16-6) over the past month have all featured typical Storm composure but also flat spots – thought the improved defence last week would have pleased Craig Bellamy after leaking 24-plus in four straight games.

Ryan Papenhuyzen (foot) returns, pushing Sua Fa’alogo to the bench and Kane Bradley is Xavier Coates’ replacement on the wing.

Though Reimis Smith has been named as 18th man after returning via NSW Cup last week and Harry Grant has been rested again.

The Storm have won their last six against the Tigers by an average margin of 20.7 points, last year’s encounters finished 24-12 at AAMI Park and 28-6 at Campbelltown.

The Tigers have won three on the trot at Leichhardt, including both games there this season.

A fourth consecutive victory at their spiritual home for the first time since 2010-11 looks well beyond them, however.

Tip: Back the Storm to Win by 11-20 Points @ $3.45

SGM: UNDER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / TIGERS UNDER 17.5 TOTAL POINTS / WILL WARBRICK TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $55.67

The biggest talking point of this crunch game between the seventh-placed North Queensland Cowboys and ninth-placed Manly Sea Eagles – who are separated by just one point – is the retrenchment of returning Manly superstar Tom Trbojevic in the centres.

In something of a surprise, Tolu Koula moves to fullback with rookie No.1 sensation Lehi Hopoate taking up a spot on the bench, as Reuben Garrick also returns in the centres.

Origin trio Daly Cherry-Evans, Jake Trbojevic and Haumole Olakau’atu, and Josh Aloiai are all back as well.

The Sea Eagles have won only two of their last seven, but those two wins were excellent home victories against the Storm and Dragons.

With their rep stars missing, they were doused 14-0 by Souths at Accor Stadium before last week’s bye.

The Cowboys have won five of their last six to climb back into the Top 8, but they don’t have the feel of a team on a roll.

However, they scored a 34-16 upset in Canberra and stunned Penrith 16-6 – both on the road – in their past two outings.

Val Holmes, Murray Taulagi, Tom Dearden, Reuben Cotter, Jeremiah Nanai and Reece Robson all return to the Cowboys’ line-up after being rested from the Panthers win.

After losing the teams’ last four encounters, the Sea Eagles won one-off clashes in 2022 (28-26) and 2023 (19-8) – both at 4 Pines Park.

The Cowboys are on a four-match winning streak against Manly in Townsville.

Somewhat of a concern is the fact the Cowboys have conceded at least 20 points in every home game this season, including a 42-12 loss to the Warriors in their last Townsville assignment.

The Sea Eagles, meanwhile, are striving to snap a four-match away losing streak.

Without Origin encumbrances, Manly has been the more reliable and impressive of the two teams – particularly defensively.

The visitors can get the job done on the back of DCE’s influence and ‘Turbo’s’ return.

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Win @ $2.05

SGM: EITHER SIDE BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / VALENTINE HOLMES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JASON SAAB ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KYLE FELDT ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $90.44

St George Illawarra is inching towards elusive consistency, but a streaking Sydney Roosters outfit shapes as a formidable proposition for Shane Flanagan’s band of improvers at Allianz Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The Roosters have won three in a row by double-digit margins, shutting down the in-form Bulldogs 26-8 and the hapless Tigers 40-6 in the past fortnight.

They have scored 28-plus in eight of their last nine games and conceded more than 18 just once during that period.

Michael Jennings comes in for Joey Manu (broken hand) in the Roosters’ only change.

The Dragons have surged into the Top 8 on the back of three wins from their last four games. They missed an opportunity in a 30-14 loss to injury-hit Manly before the Round 16 bye, but the Saints ran in six tries to one to dominate the Dolphins 26-6 last Sunday.

Origin star Zac Lomax was rested last week but returns in the Saints’ sole adjustment to last week’s team.

The Roosters have won 10 of their last 12 against the Dragons, who will have harrowing memories of their 60-18 Anzac Day loss at Allianz.

The Saints did jag two-point upsets at the SCG in 2022 and Kogarah in 2023, however.

It’s no surprise to see the Roosters as warm favourites, but the Dragons aren’t getting enough respect as a $4.40 outsider.

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+13.5) @ $1.90

SGM: ROOSTERS BY 1-12 POINTS / UNDER 53.5 TOTAL POINTS / SITILI TUPOUNIUA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ZAC LOMAX ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $32.85

Canberra went some way towards digging its way out of a form hole last week but remain on a three-match losing streak and confront a horror run at its GIO Stadium fortress as Newcastle arrives in the capital.

The rivals are tied for 10th with 7-8 records, underlining what’s at stake in this one.

The Raiders were awful in consecutive losses to the Cowboys (34-16) and Tigers (48-24), but showed some trademark spirit in a 16-6 defeat in Melbourne last Saturday – the least points they have conceded since Round 5.

Kaeo Weekes will start at fullback, Adam Cook at halfback, Albert Hopoate in the centres and Jordan Rapana on the wing and Simi Sasagi returns on the bench.

The Knights halted a three-game slide with a fast-finishing 34-26 win over Parramatta last weekend.

The debut of English five-eighth Will Pryce was another plus, though it should be noted their last two tries came from Bradman Best runaways via Eels errors, to say they are back would be premature.

A huge in for the Knights with Kalyn Ponga to play for the first time since Round 7, while Kiwis prop Leo Thompson – a late withdrawal last week – is set to play, along with Dylan Lucas (hamstring).

Phoenix Crossland (concussion) is out, while fullback Fletcher Sharpe will come off the bench.

The Raiders snapped a three-match losing run against the Knights with a surprise 28-12 result in Newcastle in Round 1 this year.

The Knights prevailed 28-6 in Canberra late last season during their late rally to the NRL finals, where they beat the Raiders in golden point at home.

The Raiders have leaked 118 points in losing their last three at home, while the Knights are looking to improve on a 3-4 away record in 2024.

Despite the Ponga factor, the Raiders are difficult to pass up as a home underdog against a team that has proven equally unreliable.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.90

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / MATTHEW TIMOKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DYLAN LUCAS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $34.36

2023

It’s the full complement of eight matches in Round 18 of the NRL premiership – and the jockeying for position on the ladder is really starting to heat up.

There’s two feisty derbies on the docket, along with three huge showdowns between teams placed ninth or higher, and a pair of do-or-die encounters between teams languishing in the bottom half.

With injuries and suspensions muddying the waters, see where the value lies in a fascinating weekend of rugby league.

The round kicks off with a clash between bitter neighbouring rivals, with Cronulla aiming to reestablish themselves as a title contender and St George Illawarra trying to salvage something from their 2023 wreckage over the remaining 10 weeks.

The Sharks are on a six-match winning streak in the derby, culminating in a 40-8 rout at Jubilee in Round 4 where Nicho Hynes ran riot and the Saints put up the white flag. The Dragons’ last win at Cronulla was back in 2018.

Cronulla are fourth on the ladder but have used up their full complement of byes. A home loss to Origin-weary Brisbane and a 54-10 thrashing at the hands of Melbourne put the Sharks under the microscope, but they bounced back with a comprehensive 48-10 win over Canterbury in Round 16.

The 4-11 Dragons showed some spirit in a 36-30 win over Souths but returned to the foot of the ladder via an insipid 48-18 loss to the Warriors in Wollongong last Friday. They were ruthlessly exposed on their left edge in the nine-try drubbing.

The temporary truce in the Ben Hunt saga offers some respite for the embattled joint venture.

The Sharks’ 17 remains unchanged following their bye, while the Dragons have brought Tautau Moga in to replace Moses Suli (head knock). Jack Bird and Zane Musgrove are out, with Toby Couchman and Jaiyden Hunt joining the bench.

While the effects of his Origin axing may become evident when the Sharks face up to the NRL’s heavyweights, he is an expert at unpicking ordinary teams – and they don’t come much worse than the Saints at present.

If the hosts are switched on, another landslide is imminent.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Win by 21-30 @ $3.45

SGM: SHARKS -18.5 / OVER 45.5 POINTS TOTAL / SIONE KATOA TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / WILL KENNEDY TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $26.64

The Warriors return to Auckland hunting four straight wins for the first time since early-2018, hosting stalling heavyweights South Sydney Rabbitohs, who have hit the skids over the past month with injuries stunting their momentum.

Following on from second-half-dominant 22-point wins over the Dolphins and Canberra, the surging Warriors walloped St George Illawarra 48-18 in Wollongong despite being uncharacteristically sloppy during multiple patches.

The outstanding quartet of Shaun Johnson, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Addin Fonua-Blake and Tohu Harris were again superb, but the star of the show was winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, whose four-try haul gave him 12 in his last eight games.

Just one change for the Warriors, with Mitch Barnett returning from suspension for Marata Niukore, who copped a three-match high-tackle ban.

After winning their previous six – including most of their fellow title contenders – Souths have lost four of their last five and slipped to eighth on the ladder. Last week’s 31-6 rout at the hands of North Queensland last Sunday was their worst of 2023.

The 9-7 Rabbitohs conceded no more than 20 points across their first 11 matches but have leaked 28-plus points in every game since. Latrell Mitchell’s four-game absence has seemingly decimated Souths’ confidence, while Cody Walker made an unhappy return from injury against the Cowboys.

Siliva Havili and Shaquai Mitchell return on the bench for Jacob Host and Jed Cartwright in the Rabbitohs’ only changes for this five-day turnaround.

The Rabbitohs have won 13 of their last 14 against the Warriors, including the last seven in succession. Last season the Warriors came home with a wet sail in Magic Round in a 32-30 loss but were pumped 48-10 on the Sunshine Coast in Round 21.

Souths have also won their last three at Mt Smart Stadium by 19-plus margins. The teams’ last 16 encounters produced at least 40 points.

But this is undeniably a different Warriors outfit, who are emerging as a definite top-four contender as their attacking potency starts to match their top-three defence. They are 3-1 in Auckland this year and should capitalise on another sellout at Mt Smart against the out-of-sorts Bunnies.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-2.5) @ $1.95

SGM: WARRIORS WIN / UNDER 43.5 POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SHAUN JOHNSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.85

Two of the competition’s co-leaders lock horns in their first heavyweight showdown of 2023, though the absence of Nathan Cleary takes the hype out of this one somewhat – and sees Melbourne installed as $1.80 favourites to overcome defending premier Penrith.

Both sides are navigating the Origin period very impressively. The Storm have won five of their last six, bouncing back from their Round 14 aberration against the Cowboys with three authoritative wins over Cronulla (54-10), Wests Tigers (28-6) and Manly (24-6).

Cameron Munster returns for excellent five-eighth fill-in Jonah Pezet this week, while Tui Kamikamica comes back into the side for Aaron Pene.

The Panthers have won six of their last seven, with the only loss in that period also coming against the Cowboys in golden point with their Origin contingent missing. Resting all five of their NSW reps (on top of Cleary’s ongoing injury absence), the champs produced a gritty 20-12 win over Newcastle last week.

Brian To’o, Stephen Crichton, Jarome Luai, Liam Martin and Isaah Yeo all return for this road trip.

The teams’ last 10 clashes were split five apiece. Last season the Panthers carved out a 32-6 win in Magic Round, while the Storm prevailed 16-0 at Penrith against a side missing Cleary, Luai, Edwards and Fisher-Harris.

Remarkably, this is the archrivals’ first clash at AAMI Park since 2018. The Storm have won 10 of their last 11 against the Panthers in Melbourne.

Penrith’s ability to bring second-stringers into their ultra-effective system and produce the goods is remarkable, while Jack Cogger is making a fine fist of his extended No.7 deputy stint.

Melbourne should have the edge at home, but backing the trend of low-scorers between these elite defensive outfits – with 13 of their last 16 producing 38 points or less – shapes as a better bet.

Tip: Back Under 38.5 Total Points @ $1.90

SGM: MELBOURNE WIN / NICK MEANEY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN TO’O ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $10.13

A massively pivotal encounter in the capital on Saturday as ninth-placed Gold Coast eyes off an opportunity to leapfrog sixth-placed Canberra on the ladder.

The Raiders have won eight of their last 10, either winning nail-biters or losing big. Their wins in that period were all by seven points or less, while they’ve lost their last two at home by more than 20 points.

After being touched up 36-14 by the Warriors in Round 15, the Raiders came out of the bye with a vital 20-18 road victory over the struggling Roosters. But they again let a big lead slip, powering to 18-0 before only just holding on.

In routinely patchy team performances, there’s notable individual positives – and Jamal Fogarty has settled into the role of linchpin nicely. On the downside, Josh Papali’i is out this week with Pasami Saulo to start up front and Ata Mariota joining the bench.

The 7-7 Titans’ position on the ladder is inflated by the fact they’ve already had three byes, but they are coming off a stunning 18-12 upset of the Broncos last Sunday just days after the shock sacking of coach Justin Holbrook.

Holding one the NRL’s most potent offences to just two tries and successfully hanging onto a second-half lead were major steps forward for the defensively porous, notorious late-game faders, while David Fifita and Moe Fotuaika were magnificent in the absence of Tino Fa’asuamaleuai.

Captain Fa’asuamaleuai returns this week, with brother Izack dropping out of the 17.

The Raiders have won seven of their last eight against the Titans, including victories at home (24-22) and away (36-24) last season. The Titans did, however, romp to a 44-6 win at GIO Stadium in 2021.

The hosts are $1.67 favourites and given their inability to produce a complete 80-minute performance, it’s hard to make a case for anything but another nervy, narrow win in their favour. But it’s a big test for the Titans to reproduce last Sunday’s form as the emotion of a massive week on and off the field subsides.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Win 1-12 @ $3.20

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALBERT HOPOATE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN KELLY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.75

It’s impossible to avoid the overriding storyline of this clash: North Queensland seeking retribution for a horrific 66-18 loss to Wests Tigers just six weeks ago.

The Leichhardt Oval encounter was simultaneously one of the lowly Tigers’ greatest occasions in more than a decade and one of the darkest nights in the Cowboys’ history. But the teams have treaded contrasting paths since that memorable match.

Despite being heavily impacted by Origin, the Cowboys regrouped with a spirited loss to Parramatta then knocked off Melbourne (45-20) and Penrith (27-23 in golden point) at home and South Sydney (31-6) on the road.

Though the Panthers and Rabbitohs were shorthanded to varying degrees, it’s been three straight big statements that have catapulted the Cowboys back into the thick of the finals conversation. Fullback Scott Drinkwater is in blistering touch and there’s a definite 2022 feel about Todd Payten’s squad again.

The Tigers have lost all three games since demolishing the Cowboys – a slide bookended by byes – with a thrilling comeback in a 20-19 loss to Canberra followed up by less encouraging losses to Gold Coast (28-12) and Origin-depleted Melbourne (28-6).

Injuries to Api Koroisau and Luke Brooks have only made things tougher for the 3-11, second-last Tigers.

The Cowboys are unchanged, but 18th man Jason Taumalolo could play after being a late withdrawal last week. The Tigers have recalled Daine Laurie for the first time since Round 4 at five-eighth, allowing Starford To’a to return to the centres. Stefano Utoikamanu is back from Origin duty.

The Leichhardt massacre was the Cowboys’ eighth loss from their last 12 against the Tigers, who have won three of their last four in Townsville. Their only loss in that time was a wildly controversial 27-26 after-the-siren defeat thanks to a contentious late penalty.

But the Cowboys are 6-2 at home this season and appear almost certain to chalk up their fourth straight victory in very comfortable fashion after rediscovering their mojo.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-14.5) @ $1.90

SGM: COWBOYS 41 POINTS OR MORE / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LUCIANO LEIILUA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SEMI VALEMEI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / VALENTINE HOLMES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $41.63

The inaugural derby between Brisbane Broncos and the Dolphins was a match for the ages, but the return clash – the first-ever premiership fixture held at The Gabba – sees both sides at their lowest ebb of overachieving 2023 campaigns.

The ladder-leading Broncos came off the Round 16 bye on a character-filled three-match winning run, but it one of the boilovers of the season they were rolled 18-12 by Gold Coast at Suncorp last Sunday.

Errors and a lack of patience and respect for the opposition brought them undone, while they narrowly missed out on a score-levelling try on a couple of occasions as they chased late points. Coach Kevin Walters absolutely sprayed his title-contending charges post-match.

The subsequent fallout of that loss has been even more damaging. Reece Walsh was controversially suspended for contrary conduct, while prop Tom Flegler and second-row mainstay Jordan Riki are both out for varying periods with foot injuries.

Tristan Sailor – superb in the Broncos’ upset of the Warriors before Origin I – is the likely fullback replacement for the red-hot Walsh, while Keenan Palasia and Xavier Willison come into the starting pack.

The wheels have fallen off defensively for the 7-8 Dolphins, who have slipped to 11th via three straight losses to the Warriors, Manly and Parramatta in which they conceded a total of 136 points.

The Dolphins can glean some positives from their second-half effort in a 48-20 loss to the Eels on the Sunshine Coast after a 42-4 first-half landslide, but they were absolutely steamrolled through the middle with Felise Kaufusi (102 metres) the only Dolphins forward to run for more than 83 metres.

Tesi Niu returns on the wing for tryscoring wing debutant Brayden McGrady, while Jeremy Marshall-King (shoulder) is a big inclusion. Kodi Nikorima drops back to the bench and Sean O’Sullivan starts at halfback again after making an early return from a long-term layoff last week.

The Dolphins were arguably the moral victors as the Broncos won an absolute thriller 18-12 in Round 4, the newcomers’ first NRL defeat. But those early-season standards have certainly slipped in recent weeks.

Don’t be too concerned by the Broncos’ list of absentees. They’ve already proved their depth is outstanding across the board and last week’s kick up the backside from the Titans – and their coach – should ensure an emphatic bounce-back statement against a team that is haemorrhaging points.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Win by 13+ @ $2.20

SGM: BRONCOS -10.5 / OVER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / EZRA MAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.11

While both are realistically done as far as the Top 8 picture goes, the loser of this 14th versus 15th encounter can definitely start making September holiday plans.

The 5-10 Canterbury Bulldogs have won just two of their last 10 and incurred increasingly heavy defeats to the Roosters (25-24), Eels (34-12) and Sharks (48-10) in between two recent byes.

Injuries have played their part, but the Bulldogs’ lack of defensive resolve under rookie coach Cameron Ciraldo has been the most disappointing aspect of the campaign.

The 5-1-9 Newcastle Knights’ hopes have faded courtesy of a three-match losing run, earning plenty of admirers after being run down by the Broncos 24-20 but sinking to disappointing losses to the Origin-hampered Roosters (18-16) and Panthers (20-12).

The Bulldogs have replaced five-eighth Karl Oloapu with fellow rookie Khaled Rajab, while Max King, Harrison Edwards, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Jackson Topine all return.

Dane Gagai (foot) is out for the Knights and will be replaced by Enari Tuala. Lachlan Fitzgibbon comes back from concussion for Dylan Lucas.

Canterbury has won nine of its last 13 against Newcastle, snapping a three-game losing run in the rivalry with a 24-10 victory at McDonald Jones Stadium in Round 20 last year. The Knights last beat the Bulldogs in Sydney in 2013.

Something of a lottery, but the Knights have at least been competitive every week and with Adam O’Brien’s job potentially on the line expect to see more desperation from the visitors.

Tip: Back the Knights to Win by 1-12 @ $2.90

SGM: KNIGHTS WIN / UNDER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / DOMINIC YOUNG TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / JAKE AVERILLO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $48.47

If Manly and Sydney Roosters have designs on staying in the finals race, this shapes as an absolute must-win for both sides.

The 13th-placed, 6-1-8 Sea Eagles have won just two of their last eight, sinking to heavy losses to the Eels (34-4) and Storm (24-6) on the road in the past fortnight, compounded by a season-ending injury to superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic.

Manly showed some grit in the first half at AAMI Park, but lacked punch and direction outside of Daly Cherry-Evans. Josh Schuster is struggling at five-eighth and how he responds to the Luke Brooks signing news this week is one of the more intriguing subplots in this one.

Jake Trbojevic’s return is a huge positive, however, while Jason Saab, Kelma Tuilagi, Ben Trbojevic and Brad Parker are also back on deck from the casualty ward.

The 12th-placed, 7-8 Roosters have eked out nail-biting wins over the Bulldogs and Knights (the latter without their Origin players and after Luke Keary exited early with injury), but their comeback from 18 points down fell just short in a 20-18 home loss to the Raiders last Sunday.

The Tricolours’ attack isn’t clicking, scoring comfortably the least points per game in the NRL despite the high-profile artillery in their line-up. James Tedesco is arguably in the biggest form slump of his career, but it’s not due to lack of effort.

The suspended Joseph Suaalii and Fletcher Baker return, while Siua Wong will debut off the bench for the Roosters. But Angus Crichton, Sitili Tupouniua and Egan Butcher have all been ruled out in a net negative – though Nat Butcher is a chance of returning after being named in the reserves.

The Roosters have won six of their last eight against the Sea Eagles, including a pair of wins last season at the SCG (26-12) and Brookvale (20-10) with Daniel Tupou crossing in both. Manly has not beaten the Tricolours at home since 2017.

The Roosters have won their last two on the road, while the Sea Eagles are 4-2 at 4 Pines Park this season but have lost two of their last three at their home base. Neither team’s form inspires a great deal of confidence and they can’t be split in the head-to-head market.

Lean towards the Roosters, who have at least been competitive in every match bar their two outings against Penrith. The Sea Eagles will be better for their returning contingent but their wildly fluctuating form makes them impossible to get behind.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Win @ $1.90

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JASON SAAB ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $27.39

2022

We’re down to the last third of the 2022 NRL regular season – no more byes, no more shortened rounds, no more representative interruptions.

But Wednesday’s State of Origin decider could still play a role in Round 18 as rep-burdened teams manage weary stars ahead of vital clashes.

The Cowboys have a big contingent potentially backing up against the Sharks on Friday. Ditto the Broncos for Saturday’s derby with the Titans. The Warriors will be aiming to parlay their homecoming goodwill into an upset of the flighty Eels, while the Roosters and Dragons face off in a pivotal battle in the race for the Top 8.

The Storm are under pressure to avoid a third straight defeat when they host the desperate Raiders, the Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs will be eager to avoid being tripped up by bottom-five opposition as they cling to their Top 8 places, and the depleted Panthers aim to keep their six-point buffer at the top of the ladder when they meet the battling Tigers.

North Queensland moved into outright second during its bye week and have only suffered one defeat – to Penrith in its past 11 games. The competition’s second-best defensive unit has conceded 26 points in each of last two games, yet showed impressive qualities in overcoming Manly and Brisbane.

Maroons players Tom Gilbert and Tom Dearden have been named to back up, but Valentine Holmes and Jeremiah Nanai will be rested and Jordan McLean and Murray Taulagi – both ruled out of the decider – are not available. Brendan Elliott and Connelly Lemuelu return, while Coen Hess and Jamayne Taunoa-Brown are in the starting pack.

Fourth-placed, 11-5 Cronulla chalked up its fourth straight win – but arguably its best since April – via a 28-6 rout of Melbourne, despite the absence of linchpin Nicho Hynes. Maligned Matt Moylan was in vintage touch, while blockbusting centre scored three tries and laid on another in a dominant display.

The Sharks are boosted by the return of Hynes and Toby Rudolf from COVID protocols, but Kiwi Test forward Briton Nikora is out suspended. Sole Origin rep Siosifa Talakai is named in the reserves.

The Sharks have won their last seven straight against the Cowboys, carving out a 48-10 win at Jubilee Oval in Round 4 last year before sneaking in 26-24 in Townsville in Round 15.

Cronulla can draw level with North Queensland via a road win here – and the visitors are certainly dealing with less line-up disruptions. But the Sharks are 4-4 away from Sydney, while the Cowboys have won their last five at Queensland Country Bank Stadium by 14-plus margins.

Chad Townsend, in his first game against the Sharks since leaving the Shire, and forward leader Jason Taumalolo will be the key figures for the Cowboys but expect their depth to come to the fore once again.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win by 1-12 @ $2.85

SGM: EITHER TEAM TO WIN BY UNDER 10.5 / OVER 41.5 POINTS / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRY SCORER / CONNOR TRACEY ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $25.36

Parramatta is searching for back-to-back wins – an elusive task in 2022 – to consolidate its Top 8 position and keep pushing for the Top 4, having done enough to put away struggling Wests Tigers 28-20 on the back of Mitchell Moses’ class.

It was far from a complete performance from the Eels, who fought back from an early double-digit deficit in another example of the occasional giant-killers brining themselves down to the level of their opponents.

The Warriors had a week off in the wake of their stirring – and surely emotionally draining – 22-2 defeat of the Tigers in their Mt Smart homecoming. Under-fire Shaun Johnson took control, Chanel Harris-Tavita was magnificent at fullback and Addin Fonua-Blake led the engine-room charge to underpinned the end of a seven-match losing streak.

Stacey Jones’ first win as interim coach also represented the Warriors’ biggest winning margin and lowest score conceded since prior to Nathan Brown’s arrival. But it’s been a busy time since – Reece Walsh has confirmed his exit, while Andrew Webster has signed on as coach from 2023.

The Eels have named Junior Paulo to back up 48 hours after the Origin decider. Ryan Matterson remains sidelined and Jake Arthur has been added to the bench.

The Warriors have lost Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Ronald Volkman and Bayley Sironen. The shaky Ed Kosi comes in on the wing, Harris-Tavita reverts to five-eighth after Walsh’s return from COVID, and Jack Murchie is back in the 17.

Parramatta has won its last three against the Warriors, cruising to a 34-18 Magic Round victory last season after the Eels took out close, controversial wins over the unlucky Warriors in 2019 and ’20.

The 5-11 Warriors are all but out of the finals equation, but there were plenty of positive signs in the Tigers shut-out. Kosi’s match-up with Maika Sivo is a terrifying prospect for the visitors, who have won just one game (also against the Tigers) away from Redcliffe and Auckland.

The Eels have the firepower to blow most teams – and certainly the Warriors – off the park. But the $1.16 favourites have managed just two wins by more than 10 points and have been far too unreliable to get behind them giving away this many points at the line.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+16.5 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: EELS BY 1-12 / EELS UNDER 29.5 POINTS / SHAUN LANE ANYTIME TRY SCORER / MARCELO MONTOYA TRY SCORER @ $43.25

An absolute crunch game as 10th-placed Sydney Roosters aim to leapfrog ninth-placed St George Illawarra.

After winning four of their previous five to slip into the Top 8, the Dragons were humbled by a severely depleted Broncos outfit 32-18. There were some positive individual signs from the likes of Moses Suli, but they looked rudderless without Ben Hunt.

The Roosters are on a four-match losing streak, going down to the Raiders, Storm, Eels and Panthers in close-fought encounters to leave the heavyweights in a precarious position. Luke Keary remains out, so Joey Manu will stay in the No.6 jersey.

James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou and Angus Crichton have been named to back up from Origin, while Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is set to play his first game since Round 12 and Matt Lodge is a chance of a club debut. Hunt will be monitored after the Origin decider, while Tautau Moga replaces the injured Mikaele Ravalawa on the wing and Tariq Sims is suspended.

The Dragons will be looking to channel their gritty, Ben Hunt-inspired 14-12 upset of the Tricolours in Round 7. The Anzac Day result snapped a seven-match losing streak against the Roosters for the Saints.

Despite the disparity in recent wins, the Roosters’ overall form has been the more encouraging of the two sides. JWH’s return should see Trent Robinson’s side well and truly get some ascendancy in the middle third after the Dragons struggled against a makeshift Broncos pack.

They look a bit short at $1.40 and Origin fallout could be a factor, but the Roosters will come out of the bye firing with their season on the line.

Tip: Back Roosters/Roosters Half-time/Full-time @ $1.70

SGM: ROOSTERS WIN / OVER 41.5 POINTS / JOSEPH SUAALII FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD TRY SCORER @ $7.80

The two points from the bye propelled Manly back into the Top 8 for the first time since Round 9. But for a shocking late collapse against North Queensland, the Sea Eagles would be on a four-match winning streak. A late lapse a week later against Melbourne was disappointing, but for 70 minutes they were dominant to set up a 36-30 upset.

Young backs Toluatu Koula and Christian Tuipulotu continue to improve with every outing, while veteran halves Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans are in vintage touch. Manly is unchanged with Cherry-Evans and Jake Trbojevic named to back up from Wednesday’s Origin.

Four of 12th-placed Newcastle’s five wins came against teams below them on the ladder, a Round 1 upset of the Roosters the only exception. On the back of a big win over the Titans, they started well last week against Souths before being overrun 40-28.

Kalyn Ponga returns from injury – pending his health after Origin – while Dane Gagai and Jacob Saifiti have also been named to back up. Bradman Best’s injury woes continue.

The Knights have won two of their last three at Brookvale and five of their last eight against the Sea Eagles overall. But a DCE masterclass underpinned a convincing 30-6 Manly victory in Newcastle in Round 5.

This is a game Manly simply can’t afford to lose in a super-tight scramble for finals spots. That shouldn’t be too much trouble at home – where the Sea Eagles are 4-1 in 2022 – against one of the flimsiest defences in the NRL.

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (-8.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: SEA EAGLES BY 13+ / SEA EAGLES OVER 24.5 POINTS / CHRISTIAN TUIPULOTU ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $8.12

The south-east Queensland derby rivals arrive at Saturday’s showdown on vastly different trajectories. The 3-13 Gold Coast Titans are battling to avoid the spoon, while the 10-6 Brisbane Broncos are pushing for the Top 4.

The Titans have won just one of their last 12 games and went into the Round 17 bye on the back of an ugly 38-12 defeat to fellow strugglers the Knights. There is a clear lack of experience in direction throughout the spine, while confidence and concentration appears to be an issue throughout Justin Holbrook’s line-up.

Phillip Sami and Corey Thompson bolster the backline this week but Jarrod Wallace is out, while Sosefo Fifita is set to debut on the wing and Tanah Boyd will start at five-eighth. Maroons enforcer Tino Fa’asuamaleaui has been named.

The Broncos bounced back from relatively promising away losses to the Storm and Cowboys with a gutsy 32-18 victory over the Dragons despite the absence of their Origin stars and a host of injured top-liners. Tyros Tesi Niu, Ezra Mam, Keenan Palasia and Zac Hosking all stood tall.

Corey Oates and Pat Carrigan have been named to back up from Origin, but Selwyn Cobbo and Kurt Capewell will be given a rest. Jake Turpin is on the bench for the injured Cory Paix, Payne Haas is out after being scratched from Origin and Maroons squad member Thomas Flegler returns.

The last four derbies have gone the way of the home side, with the Titans grabbing 12-point wins at Cbus Super Stadium in 2020 and ’21. Navigating a stint without Reynolds, the Broncos recovered from a 20-point deficit to beat the Titans 35-24 in Round 12 with Carrigan and Cobbo on fire.

Gold Coast’s last 10 losses were by 8-plus margins and the home side doesn’t look capable of keeping this one close. With Adam Reynolds calling the shots and Niu and Mam sniffing around for opportunities, expect the Broncos to pile on the points this Saturday nights.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line @ $1.90

SGM: BRONCOS BY 13+ / BRONCOS 31-40 POINTS / KOTONI STAGGS TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $29.10

It’s worst versus first as last-placed Wests Tigers host runaway ladder leaders Penrith at CommBank Stadium.

The Tigers slumped to 16th with their fifth straight loss, a 28-20 defeat to the Eels after scoring the opening two tries of the match. It was an improvement after losing their previous four (including against fellow also-rans the Bulldogs and Warriors) by 20-plus margins.

The 15-1 Panthers took a well-earned break last weekend. Their 26-18 win over a plucky Roosters outfit in Round 16 was one of only two times in 2022 the defending champs haven’t won by 12 points or more. But Ivan Cleary has opted to rest his entire NSW Origin contingent.

Sean O’Sullivan and Kurt Falls will line up in the halves, Robert Jennings and Charlie Staines start out wide, and Chris Smith, Matt Eisenhuth and Mitch Kenny come into the pack. A similar line-up comfortably overcame the Bulldogs 30-18 in Round 13 before the Origin series opener.

Adam Doueihi moves to his preferred five-eighth spot, with Jackson Hastings switching to lock in a gamble from Tigers coach Brett Kimmorley. James Tamou and Ken Maumalo return, but Stefano Utoikamanu.

The Panthers have won eight of their last 10 against the Tigers. The joint venture took advantage of an Origin-depleted Penrith to win 26-6 at Leichhardt in Round 13 last year, but the Panthers prevailed 30-16 in Redcliffe in Round 24.

Despite resting the nucleus of their side, the Panthers are hot $1.36 favourites. There’s still ample firepower and the likes of Dylan Edwards, James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota and Viliame Kikau provide enough leadership to carry the premiers through. But the Tigers will spy an opportunity here and should keep it fairly close.

Tip: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (+8.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / TOTAL OVER 40.5 POINTS / IZACK TAGO ANYTIME TRY SCORER / KEN MAUMALO ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $21.87

For the second time this season, Melbourne is striving to avoid three straight defeats for the first time since 2015. There was arguably more cause for concern from the Storm’s losses to the Sea Eagles (36-30) and Sharks (28-6) in their last two outing than their twin thrashing at the hands of the Panthers and Cowboys earlier in 2022.

Cameron Munster, sorely missed against Cronulla, has been named despite being ruled out of the Origin decider with COVID. Harry Grant emerging from Origin unscathed is crucial following Brandon Smith’s three-match suspension.

Meanwhile, it’s hoped Nick Meaney can return from five-eighth to the wing with Grand Anderson adding to the Storm’s huge outside-back injury toll.

Canberra’s revival has stalled somewhat, bookending a jammy escape against Newcastle with losses to injury-hit Brisbane and a controversial 12-10 defeat in terrible Wollongong conditions to St George Illawarra. The Raiders are 11th with a 7-9 record but just two points outside the Top 8.

Josh Papalii should be able to back up from Origin duties. James Schiller comes onto the bench for Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad in the only change to their Round 16 line-up.

After the Raiders’ three-match purple patch in the rivalry in 2019-20, the Storm have won the last five straight between the clubs by an average margin of 14.8 points. Jahrome Hughes, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Munster lit up Wagga Wagga in a 30-16 win over Canberra in Round 5.

Melbourne won’t be lacking for motivation – both due to a tenuous hold on a Top 4 spot and in the form of some Craig Bellamy bakes – but the Storm’s chances could hinge on Munster’s availability.

The Raiders are just 2-7 away from Canberra in 2022, with their only two wins coming at neutral venues – but they’re another Round 18 underdog who look very good value with a hefty start.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+11.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 12.5 POINTS / OVER 40.5 POINTS / RYAN PAPENHUYZEN ANYTIME TRY SCORER / NICK COTRIC ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $17.20

Canterbury’s two-game revival – thrashing Parramatta (34-4) and Wests Tigers (36-12) back-to-back – met a Round 16 roadblock in the shape of an 18-6 loss to Cronulla.

But Mick Potter has unquestionably unlocked something in the embattled 4-12 Bulldogs, with the likes of Jacob Kiraz and Aaron Schoupp thriving alongside marquee men Matt Burton and Josh Addo-Carr. Braidon Burns returns in the centres for his first game since Round 6 and Burton is expected to back up from Origin.

South Sydney is doing enough to stay in the Top 8 and has won four of its past five games. But after an impressive 30-12 beatdown of Parramatta and a 40-28 comeback win over Newcastle with their Origin stars absent, the 9-7 Rabbitohs are chasing three straight victories for the first time in 2022.

Latrell Mitchell’s return from a lengthy layoff has been crucial to Souths’ last two wins, while Cody Walker was at his incisive and creative best against the Knights. The marquee duo should be joined by Origin reps Cameron Murray, Damien Cook and Jai Arrow, as well as Alex Johnston, for this crunch game.

The Bulldogs have won just two of their last 10 against the Bunnies and have conceding 106 points in losing the last three straight. Cook scored a hat-trick and Johnston bagged a double in a 36-16 Good Friday win earlier this season.

Souths are ranked fourth in the NRL for running metres and Canterbury is 13th – the Rabbitohs have a clear advantage in the pack. Burton and their hungry outside backs give the Bulldogs a chance, but there’s too much riding on this for the 2021 grand finalists to let two points go begging here.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Win by 11-20 Points @ $3.20

SGM: RABBITOHS WIN / RABBITOHS OVER 24.5 / ALEX JOHNSTON ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $7.77

2021

Round 18 of the NRL season promises to be an eventful weekend with 12 clubs settling into hub life in South East Queensland.

The Covid outbreak in Sydney has forced three quarters of the NRL to play out of Brisbane plus the Gold and Sunshine Coasts for at least the next month and likely longer.

On the park there are plenty of big storylines set to play out with the State of Origin period over for another season and every player now focused on their final eight games.

Things kick off with a Friday double header and we are previewing all 18 games below so read on to see who we are backing.

The Eels stumbled in their last game before the bye, going down to the Cleary-less Panthers 13-12 but you have to like their chances in this one.

A few of their players will be backing up from Origin but they should have the talent to see off a Gold Coast side that has really struggled to keep teams at bay defensively.

The Titans have conceded at least 30 points in six of their last ten games and the Eels have the firepower to put up a big score if they feel like it.

History favours a huge Eels win with the last four meetings between these sides ending in a resounding Parramatta victory.

SGM: Eels to Win and Over 49.5 Points @ $2.86

Manly is the definition of a one-man team and that one man is going to be back this Friday night.

At the time of writing, Tom Trbojevic has been named in the Manly side for Friday night, backing up from State of Origin 48 hours before this game.

While some may consider it a risk, it is a necessary one to take as the Sea Eagles chase down a top four spot.

Having only failed to score in one of his nine appearances this season, it seems like a fait accompli that Tommy Turbo will score at least one try in this game.

With the line hovering around that dangerous 20 point margin, I’m happy to give that a wide berth and instead go for a try scoring play.

It’s a nice insurance policy against Trbojevic being a late out considering that could swing the game as well.

Back Tom Trbojevic to Score 2+ Tries @ $3.20

Whatever momentum the Cowboys were building heading into June well and truly ran out once the calendar ticked over with four defeats, three of which were by at least 28 points.

As for the Roosters, the Origin period has been rough as expected however they should start to get things back on track this weekend.

Considering the hectic schedule of the past week, I’m not quite sure the Roosters have a blowout win up their sleeves, especially in Townsville but I’ll back them to get the job done as they prepare for the run home.

Back the Roosters to Win By 1-12 @ $3.00

The Sharks are finding form at the right time and have taken five of their last six to get themselves back into the top eight.

Last week’s surprise win over the undermanned Sea Eagles notwithstanding, the Raiders have been largely awful in recent weeks with just three wins from their last 12 games.

Not to mention that when the Raiders lose, they tend to lose by a lot in recent weeks, three of their last four defeats have been by at least 24 points.

For that reason, the 2.5 point line seems far too small and I’ll happily jump on that value for this game.

Back Cronulla to Cover -2.5 @ $1.90

The line for this game is currently at -19.5 in favour of the Storm, for most teams that would be a cause for concern, but not with the way Melbourne is playing at the moment.

They just keep scoring in spite of injuries and absences and look like they will be a hard team to beat come finals time (again).

Whatever confidence Newcastle took from their resounding 38-0 win over the Cowboys a fortnight ago will likely be evaporated on the Gold Coast.

Even with this game being moved to CBus, the Storm should still come away with a massive win.

Back Melbourne to Cover -19.5 & Over 49.5 Points @ $2.60

Part one of a Suncorp double header kicks off with the Warriors hosting the Panthers.

A rough two years for the Warriors just got even tougher with the club not only losing out on its homecoming and now being forced to relocate to Queensland for the foreseeable future.

It kind of puts the Panthers relative woes into perspective with Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai both missing this game.

They found a way to grind out a 13-12 win over the Eels last week and will rely on a stout defence to get them over the line.

It might not be pretty but the Panthers will get the job done and keep their minor premiership hopes alive.

Back Penrith to Win & Under 48.5 Points @ $2.80

Brisbane has been presented with an excellent opportunity to win consecutive games for the first time since Rounds 1 & 2 of the 2020 season.

While its fair to say 2021 has not gone to plan, there is still plenty to play for at Red Hill over the next eight weeks and the Tigers are a side that Brisbane should fancy its chances against.

Defensively Wests have been nothing short of horrendous over the last few weeks and Brisbane does have the team to score if given the opportunity.

I’ll back the Broncos to get the job done here and get their fifth win of the season to move level on points with the Tigers.

Back Brisbane to Win by 1-12 @ $3.10

The Bulldogs gave the Roosters all they could handle last week, can they back it up against the red hot Rabbitohs?

Not in my mind, this is in all likelihood going to end up with a scoreline closer to Souths 38-0 win back in April, than the 22-16 one from Round 17.

A slow day at the office for Souths would be scoring in the mid-20’s but given the Bulldogs general struggles keeping good teams under 30 points, this one could be over and done with early.

Backing any team at this big of a line always comes with a sense of risk but we are seeing more and more blowouts this season and I would not be surprised if Souths put up 50.

Back Souths to Cover -25.5 @ $1.90

2020

It was another profitable weekend for favourites bettors last week and there are a number of opportunities to come out on top yet again with Round 18 on the horizon.

We should receive further clarity on the top eight picture with the Tigers and Rabbitohs squaring off on Thursday night, while the top four is also set for a shake-up when the Panthers and Eels get together on Friday.

With a few loose ends to tie up, we’ve previewed all eight games in our 2020 NRL Round 18 Preview below.

A hard-fought win over Manly was a nice result for Michael Maguire’s Tigers last week, but that still hasn’t helped them close the four-point gap standing between themselves and a spot in the eight.

With only three game left to play, time is quickly running out for Wests to sneak a spot in the finals.

The Tigers won’t hold particularly fond memories of the Rabbitohs either after losing 18-10 to Souths back in Round 9.

To make matters worse, Wayne Bennett’s Bunnies are hoping to bounce-back after folding in the late stages against the Storm last week.

There was plenty of merit in the Rabbitohs’ first half performance, but they too find themselves with work to do after sliding back down to seventh on the ladder.

Dane Gagai is expected to return this week for South Sydney, while the Tigers remain relatively unchanged.

Typically speaking, the Bunnies have been a great bet on the back of a loss going 5-3 over the last calendar year and they do look the likely winner here with three wins in their last five games against the Tigers.

Wests currently own only one win over a current top eight side, so this sets up as a perfect rebound for the Rabbitohs.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-8 Points) @ $2.00

The Sea Eagles will be hoping for a repeat performance of their 32-6 win over the Bulldogs back in Round 3 when they face off against Canterbury for a second time on Friday night.

Manly hasn’t tasted a win since July, but that hasn’t stopped the bookies from installing them as the odds-on favourites.

Speaking of favourites, the Dogs are now into a very short price to take out this year’s wooden spoon.

Canterbury came up four points short to the Titans last week and this appears to be their last shot at a victory with the Rabbitohs and Panthers ahead on the schedule.

This might also be Manly’s last chance to end the season on a high note with the frisky Titans and Warriors up next, although they will have to go without winger Jorge Taufua, who tore his calf in last Saturday’s loss to the Tigers.

The Dogs are battered and bruised themselves after Dylan Napa suffered a ligament tear last week.

Kieran Foran is also in some doubt with a pec injury.

With all this in mind, a low-scoring game appears to be the safest bet.

The Total has gone Under in each of the Dogs’ last four home games against Manly, so we’re tipping points to come at a premium.

Tip: Under the Points Total

A six-point loss to the Eels back in Round 5 helped kick-start Penrith’s current 12-game winning streak and they appear a great bet to extend that record even further on Friday night against an underperforming Eels side.

Parramatta walked away with the chocolates on Sunday against the Warriors, but their defence through the middle left a lot to be desired.

Life is about to get even tougher for coach Brad Arthur with Dylan Brown likely out for the remainder of the season.

The Panthers, meanwhile, should receive an added boost in the form of electrifying winger Charlie Staines, while Isaah Yeo remains a good chance to play after suffering a head knock.

Parramatta has really struggled to play a full 80-minutes over the last six weeks, which doesn’t bode particularly well against a Panthers side that ranks second in the league in points and tries.

The Eels have scored over 20 points only once in their last six games and they won’t find this any easier in front of a hostile Panthers crowd.

Penrith has covered in four of its last six games as the line favourite at home, so back the Panthers to cover.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Dragons and the Raiders are both hoping to make up for lost time after suffering respective losses last week.

St George lost a thriller to the Cowboys in extra time last Sunday, while the Raiders failed to fire in their Grand Final rematch against the Roosters.

The situation is much more dire for the Saints as they now find themselves sitting six points off the eight-placed Sharks.

Canberra, meanwhile, has done enough to play finals, but there is still time to sneak back into the top four if results go the Raiders’ way.

The Green Machine took care of the Dragons with a 22-16 victory at home back in July and the trends suggest they should repeat that performance on Saturday.

The Raiders have been an outstanding bet on the back of a previous loss covering in five of their last six games and they should enjoy plenty of opportunities to score after the Dragons gave up three tries in the second half last week.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $2.00

The second Queensland Derby of the year kicks off on Saturday afternoon with plenty at stake for the Broncos.

Brisbane still find themselves only two points above the bottom dwelling Bulldogs on the ladder, but they should fancy their chances this week following a very brave effort against the Panthers last Thursday night.

The Titans will no doubt relish the chance to get one over their rivals though, much like they did back in June with a 30-12 victory at Suncorp.

It is fair to say the Titans have enjoyed the better part of this matchup in recent years with two wins from their last three games against the Broncos, but there is something to be said for Brisbane’s record when playing on the Gold Coast.

The Broncos have won their last five games at CBUS dating back to 2015, so with almost equal value on offer at the line as there is head-to-head, it’s probably worth taking Brisbane with a little insurance.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Roosters and the Knights headline Super Saturday, but like the odds suggest, this one could be a little one sided.

Kalyn Ponga is set to be rested with a broken nose, which has left the Roosters as the heavy favourites in the market shooting for four wins in a row.

The Roosters were enormous last week in their Grand Final rematch win over the Raiders, a performance the defending champs are likely to repeat if captain Jake Friend returns to the side this week.

Sydney has the wood over the Knights winning seven of their last eight meetings and they are almost impossible to tip against with the SCG advantage.

James Tedesco has looked unstoppable in the last two weeks, and with the Knights missing several of their top stars, this one really isn’t worth overthinking.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-17.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Storm have successfully put their Round 15 loss behind them with back-to-back wins over the Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs.

A trip back to the Sunshine Coast awaits this week for Craig Bellamy’s side and they should have no trouble disposing of a Cowboys outfit that required extra time to put away the Dragons last week.

Normally by this point in the season Bellamy is considering resting his players, but the Storm still find themselves three points off the ladder leading Panthers.

Coen Hess is set to return from suspension this week for the Cowboys, while Jason Taumalolo and Michael Morgan remain a chance to play in the final game of the season.

The Storm should also be boosted by Nelson Asofa-Solomona’s potential return.

Inclusions aside, Melbourne has won 10 straight over the Cowboys dating back to 2016 and are also a perfect 4-0 on the Sunshine Coast.

Josh Addo-Carr and company seem to play some of their best footy in the Sunshine State, so everything points to a Storm blowout.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-18.5 Points) @ $2.00

The NRL has saved the best for last this week in a game that could really help decide the top eight once and for all.

Cronulla simply needs to win to hold on to their spot in the finals, while the 10^th placed Warriors can close the gap sitting just four points behind.

New Zealand proved to everyone that they are a worthy contender in their 24-17 loss last week against the Eels, a performance they are sure to build on with their season on the line.

The Warriors pulled off two of the most memorable tries in the history of the game on the stroke of half time, and they might just go one better on Sunday against a Sharks team that gave up 38 points to the Knights.

Shaun Johnson is a chance at returning this week for the Sharks, but that still mightn’t be enough to stop the Kiwis through the middle.

The Sharks did get the better of the Warriors back in July with a punishing 46-10 victory, but that was before the Kiwis discovered their new spark.

New Zealand has covered in each of its last seven games and they appear great value to extend that record against a questionable Sharks side.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $2.00

2019

State Of Origin is now in the books for another season and now all focus returns to the NRL and the race for the top eight.

The Melbourne Storm have kicked well clear at the top of the ladder and look all but certain to claim the minor premiership, but there are only seven points seperating the South Sydney Rabbitohs in second and the Brisbane Broncos in 13th.

Every game this weekend is set to have some bearing on the final make-up of the top eight and our complete 2019 NRL Round 18 tips can be found below.

The Canterbury Bulldogs go into this clash on the back of two wins, but they will still start this clash with the Brisbane Broncos as clear underdogs.

They showed plenty of resilience in their victory over the Newcastle Knights and they have now won four of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a small profit.

In saying that, their recent record in Brisbane is poor and the home side has won the past six matches played between these two sides.

The Broncos came from behind to take their clash with the New Zealand Warriors to Golden Point and missed a number of opportunities to steal the two points.

Brisbane have won only five of their past ten matches as home favourites for a loss and they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario.

https://youtu.be/cA-VmmlZNb8

Back Broncos To Win By 1-12 @ $2.90

The Cronulla Sharks are in the middle of a truly horror injury crisis and they go into this clash with the New Zealand Warriors on the back of a four game losing streak.

They will still start this clash as favourites and they have proven to be a trustworthy betting proposition in this position.

Cronulla have won three of their past four games as away favourites and they have covered the line in both of these victories.

New Zealand failed to take their chances against the Brisbane Broncos last weekend and their recent record against the Sharks does not inspire confidence.

They have lost their past four games against their rivals and haven’t beaten them at home since 2014.

This is the Sharks chance to return to winning form and they can cover the line in the process.

https://youtu.be/AYiHlOvirWI

Back The Sharks To Cover The Line (-2.5 Points) @ $1.95

The Penrith Panthers go into this clash with the St George Illawarra Dragons as clear favourites after recording their sixth win on the trot last weekend.

The Panthers were able to dismantle a very flat Gold Coast Titans outfit and they will be even better when Nathan Cleary returns to the side.

That was the first game in their winning streak that they have won by 13+ and backing them to win by 1-12 has been a profitable betting play this season.

The Dragons produced an awful effort against the Canberra Raiders last weekend and they are a side that has lost their way during the State Of Origin period.

They have won four of their past ten games as away underdogs for a profit, but they are 5-5 against the line in this scenario and it is impossible to trust them on their recent form.

Penrith should be able to extend their winning streak in what I expect to be a low-scoring game.

https://youtu.be/wts7_wGOpk8

Back The Panthers To Win By 1-12 @ $3.10

The Sydney Roosters clearly missed James Tedesco last weekend and they suffered a shock loss at the hands of the North Queensland Cowboys.

They have now won only two of their past seven matches, but they will still start this clash with the Newcastle Knights as clear favourites.

The Roosters have won nine of their past 12 games as home favourites and they are 7-5 against the line in this scenario, while they have won six of their past seven games against the Knights.

Newcastle produced a poor effort go down to the Canterbury Bulldogs last Friday night, but they are set to be buoyed by the return of Kalyn Ponga.

The Knights have won four of their past nine games as away underdogs this season for a profit and they are 5-4 against the line in this scenario.

https://youtu.be/2JL-oDVxEsY

Back The Roosters To Win 13+ @ $2.30

The Canberra Raiders returned to winning form with a dominant win over the St George Illawarra Dragons and they are clear favourites to claim back-to-back wins.

GIO Stadium has been something of a fortress for Canberra this season and they have won five of their seven games as home favourites, while they are a profitable betting play against the line in this scenario.

The Wests Tigers were no match for the Parramatta Eels last weekend and they were beaten 28-0 when these two teams met earlier this season.

Wests have won only three of their past eight games as away underdogs, but they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.

In saying that, their recent record against the Raiders has been poor and they have won only one of the past six games played between the two sides.

Canberra have too much attacking quality for the Tigers and should be able to record a comfortable win.

https://youtu.be/zksuWoqBiOg

Back The Raiders To Cover The Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.90

The North Queensland Cowboys got themselves back into top eight contention with a win over the Sydney Roosters last weekend, but they face another tough challenge against the South Sydney Rabbitohs.

North Queensland have won only one of their past six games as away underdogs and their record against the line isn’t much better, while they were comfortably beaten by the Rabbitohs when they met earlier this season.

South Sydney got out of jail against the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend to end their losing streak and they will start this clash as narrow favourites.

They have won only four of their past nine games as away favourites and they are a terrible 2-1-6 against the line in this scenario.

No Bet

It has been the season from hell for the Gold Coast Titans and they sacked coach Gareth Brennan following their heavy loss to the Penrith Panthers last weekend.

The new coach bounce can offer be a positive, look at Carlton in the AFL, but it really is extremely difficult to see the Titans beating the Melbourne Storm.

The Titans have won only three of their past 12 games in front of their home fans, but they are 5-2 against the line as home underdogs.

Melbourne made it eight wins on the trot with a dominant win over the Cronulla Shark’s in Cameron Smith’s 400th game and it would now take a late season meltdown for them now to claim another minor premiership.

The Storm have won nine of their past 12 games as away favourites, but they are only a flat 6-6 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that Melbourne should win, but it would not surprise to see the Titans produce an improved effort and they can cover the line of 10.5 points.

https://youtu.be/bo4ijTqOFF4

Back The Titans To Cover The Line (+10.5 Points)

This is a huge game for both sides as they look to secure a position in the top eight.

The Manly Sea Eagles were unlucky not to get the two points against the South Sydney Rabbitohs last weekend and they will go into this clash as favourites.

Manly have won three of their past five games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of these wins.

The Parramatta made it three wins on the trot with an impressive effort against the Eels and they have now pulled themselves inside the top eight.

Winning away from home does continue to be an issue for the side and they have won only one of their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are a poor 2-6 against the line in this scenario.

Manly are a side that I consider to be genuine premiership dark horses and, if that is going to be the case, they should be able to win this clash.

https://youtu.be/fCTF8uDPlAY

Back The Sea Eagles To Cover The Line (-5.5 Points)

2018

Our eyes might be on Origin Game 3, but it’s tough to ignore what Round 18 holds in store for footy fans this week.

With just two months left until finals, we focus our attention on a huge eight game slate featuring plenty of ladder implications and upset potential across the board.

Top 4? Top 8? What changes will we see following another action-packed weekend in footy?

Find out below as we preview NRL Round 18 and offer all of our top tips!

https://vimeo.com/279375522

Home field advantage can make a world of difference, as we saw last week during the Panthers’ 36-4 win over the Warriors.

It looked as though Penrith’s spot in the Top 4 was fading, but Anthony Griffin’s side rose to the occasion, piling on six unanswered tries during Friday nights drubbing.

That win sees the Panthers riding into this week’s game beaming confidence, but a well-rested Sharks team is no easy-beat.

Cronulla, two weeks removed from their own triumph over New Zealand, have had two weeks to prepare for this one, and as their 5-3 away record suggests, they are every chance to pinch the points.

As it turns out, history is on the Sharks’ side too – Cronulla have won four of their last five against the Panthers, while also holding an impressive 5-2 record as the away underdogs against Penrith.

Perhaps the most impressive part of this Sharks outfit is their overall resiliency. That last-minute win over the Warriors two weeks ago said something: this team just won’t quit.

The first half was miserable for Cronulla, playing defence for most of the opening 40-minutes. Then the Sharks’ leadership took over, eventually resulting in Edrick Lee’s game-winning try.

That kind of determination was also on display for the Panthers last week. Penrith dominated in just about every statistical category, but most importantly, their defence around the line looked back to its old, strong self.

These two played out a close 26-22 affair back in Round 7, a game the Sharks won. The Panthers will want revenge on Cronulla this week, but since it’s a matter of “which Panthers side will show up?”, they are a tough team to trust.

The Sharks, now one of the top attacking sides in the competition, should take another close one.

Back Cronulla Sharks to Win 1-12 @ $2.90

https://vimeo.com/279375498

It’s hardly the game of the round, but a week off for both the Eels and the Knights could turn this bottom dweller affair into quite the slobber-knocker.

The Eels most recent outing came against the Dragons back in Round 16, a game they should have taken a lot away from. Parramatta led for most of the game before surrendering a late try to Matt Dufty, handing St. George a close 20-18 victory.

Things didn’t turn out quite so well for the Knights however, falling to 6-10 on the season behind a 20-point loss to the Bulldogs at home.

We’re now set up for what could be quite the entertaining affair, even if Round 13’s meeting says otherwise.

These two met only a month ago, a game that saw the Knights win comfortably in the end. Parra’s defence was horrible that day, missing 28 tackles whilst failing to contain Newcastle’s attacking runs.

Having won three of the last five meetings, it’s almost surprising to see the Knights start out as underdogs here. Their 2-8 record as the underdog should have punters wary, but it’s not like the Eels have been any more convicning than Newcastle this season.

It’s worth noting that last time these two met, five different  Knights played scored tries. Their ball possession was amazing all game, and there’s a reason Newcastle rank first in the league in set completion.

With fresh legs and clear minds, the Knights should be able to distance themselves from the bottom four and treat the home crowd to just their third win at McDonald’s Jones Stadium this week.

Back Newcastle Knights to Win @ $2.00

https://vimeo.com/279375464

Picture this: the Rabbitohs are going to win nine-straight games.

A week off, and what looks to be an easy game in hand – what could possibly go wrong?

The Bulldogs too have tasted the winners circle recently, having beaten Newcastle back in Round 16. The hosts were particularly impressive in that game with the chips down, relishing their underdog role following a fortnight of free agency and front office criticism. The same can’t be said for last week’s heartachce against the Raiders, though.

It’s safe to say this game looks a little beyond Canterbury, and as their 6-2 record on the road shows, the Rabbitohs are capable of piling on points away from home.

Souths have won three of their last five meetings against the Dogs, and also own a 5-0 record as the away favourites over the last 12 months.

Even in close games, the Rabbitohs have held their nerve, evident in their one-point victory over the Cowboys a fortnight ago. Late challenges in the final ten minutes would crumble most teams, but the Bunnies have been able to pull out the stops, a characteristic of a team capable of winning the grand final.

This is the kind of game Souths will look to not only make a statement in, but also pull clear of second on the ladder.

Back South Sydney to Win By 13+ @ $2.00

https://vimeo.com/279375507

The Storm pulled off something quite remarkable last week.

In what looked to be a close game all the way to the finish, Melbourne put up four unanswered tries against the Dragons in the span of nine-minutes. Eventually winning 52-30, the Storm’s resounding win put the whole league on notice: this team is coming for another trophy.

Since it’s Origin week, some might give Manly a slither of hope in this fixture, and since they are playing at home, there’s certainly a case to be made.

Unfortunately for those optimistic punters, Manly’s form this season isn’t the only thing going against them this week – the Sea Eagles have won just two of their last five against the Storm.

But what about Round 11?

Indeed, the Sea Eagles manhandled the Storm, winning convincingly 24-4. That was a different Melbourne side, though, and if you’ve been paying attention over these last few weeks, the Storm’s defence has gone up a notch.

As the underdog, Manly are an ordinary 2-3 against the Storm, while Melbourne own an impressive 5-3 record away from home.

More importantly, though, it’s Melbourne’s depth that can really sting a team. Missing some of their usual faces due to Origin, names like Jahrome Hughes and Ryley Jacks turned up to play against the Dragons, both nabbing a try each.

The Sea Eagles have a right to hold their head high following Round 16’s success over Penrith, but it’s just so hard to find faith in this team. One week they look fierce, the next they look flat. Don’t back against the Storm.

Back Melbourne Storm 1-12 @ $2.80

https://vimeo.com/279375479

It took everything they had, but the important thing is the Raiders got the job done against the Bulldogs.

Perhaps the slim chance of playing finals willed the Canberra over the line, or maybe it was just the Dogs shocking defence in the final 20-minutes, whatever it was, two tries in the 77th and 78th minute sees the Raiders cling to the ninth spot on the ladder.

Meanwhile, back in Cowboys camp, North Queensland enjoyed a week off, plenty of time to mull over Round 16’s heartbreaking disappointment against the Rabbitohs.

Having now lost three straight, the Cowboys will fancy themselves a chance on the road here, but it’s safe to say punters will be a little wary of that 2-6 away record.

Head-to-head, North Queensland hold an ugly 5-6 record as the away underdogs, but Canberra’s 5-4 record as the favourite in home games isn’t all that convincing either.

So who gets the chocolates?

When these two clashed back in Round 8, it was the Raiders who walked away with an 18-8 victory. In classic 2018 Cowboys fashion, North Queensland dominated possession during that game, and even finished with a higher completion rate, but still failed to score a try past the 20-minute mark.

Believe it or not, the Raiders on the other hand have been one of the top scoring sides in the competition. Lady luck certainly hasn’t been on the Canberra’s side, but this is a must-win occasion for the green machine if they wish to play finals. With that in mind, the Raiders should win this in convincing fashion at home.

Back Canberra Raiders to Win By 13+ @ $3.20

https://vimeo.com/279375450

A week ago the Broncos looked in doubt to play finals, now… not so much.

Piling on 34-points against the Titans away from home has Brisbane fans up and about, and with a home game against the Warriors up next, confidence is certainly riding high.

The Warriors have had a horrid patch of form recently, losing two straight games, with the last being an embarrassing display against the Panthers last week.

It goes without saying, New Zealand are pretty great on the road, though. Despite last week’s frustrations, the Warriors still hold a 6-2 record away from home, and they’ve certainly found some wins at Suncorp Stadium over the years.

It almost feels like these two teams have swapped roles recently. The Warriors were rolling earlier in the year, scoring points for fun, while the Broncos were the inconsistent team with plenty of question marks.

Whether or not these two sides return to their old ways remains to be seen, but this is a big test for both. A Warriors win would see them leapfrog Brisbane for seventh on the ladder, but if New Zealand were to lose, Brisbane could move as high as fifth.

The great thing about Brisbane’s last week, was their ability to finally play as a team. They forced Gold Coast into a handful of errors, and the younger names more than stepped up. A big effort from the likes of Joe Ofahengaue went a long way, and if Brisbane get the same kind of production from Anthony Milford again, they should reap the rewards here at home.

Back Brisbane to Beat The Line (-2.5 Points) @ $1.91

https://vimeo.com/279375485

Just when we thought we had the Dragons figured out, they fall miserably to the Storm by 22-points.

St. George had every chance last Thursday night against Melbourne, but failed to find the winning formula, or more importantly, the defensive formula.

Allowing four unanswered tries in a 10-minute span is inexcusable, but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen the Dragons unable to play a full 80-minutes of consistent football.

The Tigers themselves have hit a severe road block, and it appears all the talent in the world couldn’t help Wests end this sour month and a half of four straight losses.

Still, this Tigers lineup packs plenty of sting, and if the Dragons aren’t careful, they could fall even further down the ladder.

Head-to-head St. George hold an impressive 6-1 record as the home favourites, while the Tigers are 6-10 as the underdog in all games over the last 12 months.

Since this is the first meeting between the two this year, it’s tough to get a read on how the two match up, but one thing is for sure, the Dragons need to turn all of their possession into points this week if they are to hang towards the top of the table.

Back St. George Dragons to Win 1-12 @ $2.80

https://vimeo.com/279375527

The Titans had a Top 8 position in their fingertips, but let it all slip away last week in a less than impressive performance at home against the Broncos.

Sydney, meanwhile, come into Sunday’s closing game with fresh legs following a week off, but the Roosters will be keen to put Round 16’s disappointment against the Storm behind them.

The Roosters have been kind to punters for most of the season, but their 4-3 record on the road might keep a few at bay this week. Gold Coast on the other hand, also own an ordinary 2-5 record as the home underdog this year.

A lot has happened since these two met back in Round 12, but the Roosters still look primed to put up another 20-point belting. Since then Sydney have limited all four of their opponents to under 20-points, and with the Titans struggling to hit the scoreboard at home, they’re in for a tough Sunday afternoon.

Back Sydney Roosters to Win 1-12 @ $3.00

2018

This is the final round of the 2017 NRL season in which State Of Origin players are not available and there are only four games set to take place this weekend.

The rivalry between the Sydney Roosters and the South Sydney Rabbitohs is one of the fiercest in the NRL and they will renew acquaintances on Friday night.

The Penrith Panthers are now four points outside the top eight and must beat the Manly Sea Eagles to stay in touch, while the Parramatta Eels can solidify their place in the top eight with a win over an undermanned Melbourne Storm.

We have closely analysed every game this weekend and our complete 2017 NRL round 18 tips can be found below.

The Sydney Roosters are missing a host of players due to State Of Origin commitments and because of that it is the South Sydney Rabbitohs that will start this clash as clear favourites.

South Sydney made it two wins on the trot with an excellent victory over the Penrith Panthers and they are finally starting to play the type of football that they are capable of.

The Rabbitohs have won four of their past seven games as favourites for a loss, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario for a profit.

The Roosters were awful against the Cronulla Sharks last weekend and they go into this clash without Boyd Cordner, Mitchell Pearce, Blake Ferguson and Dylan Napa.

Winning as underdogs has been an issue for the Roosters and they have won only two of their past nine games as underdogs, while they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

A full-strength South Sydney side really should be too strong for the undermanned Roosters and they can cover the line in the process.

Back South Sydney Rabbitohs To Beat The Line (-4 Points)

The market expects this game to be the tightest of the weekend and there is no separating these two sides in betting.

Manly received a big boost when Daly Cherry-Evans was overlooked for State Of Origin selection and he could really prove to be the difference in this clash.

The Sea-Eagles came from behind to beat the New Zealand Warriors last weekend and they have won six of their past nine games away from home.

Penrith produced one of their worst performances of the season to go down to South Sydney last weekend and they really do look like a club in crisis.

The Panthers have won 12 of their past 19 games at home for a loss and they have been a tough side to trust in recent weeks.

Backing Manly has been a profitable betting play all season long and there is no reason to jump-off this weekend.

Back Manly Sea Eagles To Win @ $1.90

The Melbourne Storm are another side that are badly affected by State Of Origin commitments and the Parramatta Eels will start this clash as favourites.

They required golden-point to do it, but the Eels recorded their fourth win from their past five games with their victory over the Canterbury Bulldogs and they are now entrenched in the top eight.

Parramatta have won two of their past three games as away favourites and they have the same record against the line in this scenario.

The Melbourne Storm are missing six players due to State Of Origin commitments and this will be a real test of the depth of the Storm side.

Melbourne have got the job done without their State Of Origin stars so far this season, but the fact that Cameron Munster has been called up to the Queensland side is a big loss.

The unavailability of the majority of the Storm’s stars makes this a tricky game to analyse from a betting standpoint and this is a clash that I am keen to stay out of.

No Bet

The pressure is well and truly on at both Canterbury and Newcastle.

Canterbury have lost six of their past seven games, but they have won their past four against the Newcastle Knights and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

The Bulldogs have won only two of their past four games as home favourites and they are an extremely poor 0-4 against the line in this scenario.

Newcastle’s chances of avoiding the wooden spoon took a huge blow when they went down to the Wests Tigers last weekend and they have still only won two games so far this season.

It has been almost two years since the Knights last won a game at home and they are 5-6 against the line in this scenario.

Neither of these teams has shown anything in attack in recent weeks and this is a game where the value really does look to lie with the Under in the Total Points betting market.

The Under has saluted in nine of the past 13 games played by the Bulldogs at home and has been a profitable betting play in Knights games so far this season.

Back Under 42.5 Points

2016

This is the last round of the NRL season that will not feature State Of Origin players as they will be in camp in the lead-up to the final game of the 2016 State Of Origin Series.

The Parramatta Eels will have the chance to record an upset win over the Sydney Roosters, who will be without their State Of Origin stars, while the North Queensland Cowboys always struggle without the likes of Johnathan Thurston and Matthew Scott in their side.

The Parramatta Eels missed out on a golden opportunity to record a fourth win on the trot when they threw away a lead against the Cronulla Sharks last weekend, but they will still start this clash as clear favourites.

The Eels have struggled to turn Pirtek Stadium into a fortress in the past 12 months and their record at the venue as favourites is a very poor 1-3 in both head to head and line betting markets.

Uncertainty continues to circle the club as there is plenty of speculation about when the NRL will make their final decision on how many points will actually be stripped from the Eels as well as the future of Kieran Foran.

The Roosters have played some decent rugby league in the past two weeks, but a lack of execution at key moments saw them suffer narrow defeats at the hands of the New Zealand Warriors and the Canterbury Bulldogs.

They have been a tough side to trust from a betting perspective, but they have actually won two of their past six games as away underdogs and they are 4-2 against the line in this metric.

The Roosters are building towards a victory and I am keen to back them with the added insurance of a 2.5 point start.

Recommended Bet: Back The Roosters To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)

This is a very tough game to analyse as both teams will be missing key players due to State Of Origin commitments.

Canterbury have the advantage of still having the majority of their spine together and they go into this clash on the back of three straight wins over the St George Illawarra Dragons, Brisbane Broncos and Sydney Roosters.

While the Bulldogs are deserving favourites, they have been a far from reliable betting proposition in this situation and they are 6-4 in head to head betting and 3-7 against the line.

Wests returned to winning form with an upset win over the Penrith Panthers, but they will go into this clash without Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah and James Tedesco.

This will put a great deal of pressure on young halves Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses and how they react could go a long way to deciding the outcome of this game.

The Tigers have won three of their ten games as away favourites in the past 12 months for healthy profit, but they are only 5-5 against the line in this situation.

There are too many unknowns heading into this clash – especially with Tedesco not in the Tigers side – and this is a game that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The Cronulla Sharks made it 12 wins on the trot with their come from behind win over the Parramatta Eels last weekend, but they will be without a host of regular starters due to State Of Origin commitments and they will start this game as clear underdogs.

There is no doubt that the Sharks have been the best betting team in the NRL for the past 12 months and they have been a profitable betting play in just about every metric.

They may be without their State Of Origin stars, but they have still won three of their past six games as away underdogs and they are 4-2 against the line in that scenario.

Penrith threw away a golden opportunity to record their third straight win when they lost to the the Wests Tigers last weekend and they continue to be a tough team to trust from a betting perspective.

The Panthers have won four of their past six games as home favourites for a very narrow profit, but they are 2-4 against the line in this scenario and it is always tough to work out what Panthers side will turn up week to week.

While the Sharks are well and truly under-strength, they are a team that has built up an excellent culture and it would not surprise if they went very close to continuing their incredible winning streak.

Recommended Bet: Back The Cronulla Sharks To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)

The North Queensland Cowboys a narrow victory and they have an excellent record against the Raiders in recent years, but they will go into this clash without a host of their regular starters.

Coach Paul Green has been forced to name a host of young talent in his side to replace the likes of Johnathan Thurston, Gavin Cooper, James Tamou, Matt Scott and Justin O’Neill, while they are still without Michael Morgan due to injury.

The Cowboys have proven to be a losing betting team as away underdogs in the past 12 months and it is tough to see that changing without this string of stars in the side.

The Canberra Raiders managed to take the two points from their clash with the Newcastle Knights, but they did not make it look easy after giving up a 22 point start.

The slow start overshadowed the fact that the Raiders have now won five out of their past six games and only a late season fade will cost them a return to finals football.

They have now improved their record as home favourites to 7-3 for a narrow profit, but they are still only 5-5 against the line in this scenario and they are 6-8 when being given a start at the line.

Canberra really should win this game, but the market appears to have got this clash just about right and it is another game that I am happy to stay out of this weekend.

Recommended Bet: No Bet