All eight games of NRL Round 22 will have a massive bearing on the Top 8 picture, including a do-or-die Queensland derby, crunch home games for the sliding Dolphins and Sharks, and a Belmore blockbuster on Sunday afternoon.  

North Queensland Cowboys are eyeing off what shapes as a vital free hit as they set a course for the finals, but the memories of their last visit to Leichhardt Oval should douse any sense of complacency before they take on the hapless Wests Tigers.  

The Cowboys have climbed to sixth with consecutive wins over fellow Top 8 sides Canterbury (20-18) and Cronulla (30-22) at home, while Kyle Feldt bagged a hat-trick against the Sharks. 

The Cowboys have lost Jason Taumalolo and Reuben Cotter, with Sam McIntyre and Harrison Edwards coming in.

Heilum Luki returns in a handy boost, while Thomas Mikaele and Jake Granville join the bench.  

The last-placed Tigers are on a five-match losing streak, conceding 40-plus points in four straight games before showing some fight in a 28-16 loss to the Warriors.

They trailed 14-0 at halftime in Auckland but there was just a converted try in it with 12 minutes left, while Api Koroisau was inspirational.  

The Tigers welcome back Justin Olam for Starford To’a (hamstring), Solomon Alaimalo comes onto the wing for Luke Laulilii (concussion) and David Klemmer replaces Fonua Pole (rib). 

The Tigers rocked the Cowboys 66-18 at Leichhardt midway through 2023 – their ninth win from 10 games between the clubs at the venue.

Of course, the Cowboys returned the favour with a 74-0 rout in Townsville six weeks later, while they chalked up a 42-28 home win in Round 12 this season.  

A three-match winning streak at Leichhardt was broken by the Storm in a 40-28 loss in Round 18, but there’s no question the Tigers perform better at their spiritual homes.

But the Cowboys have won their last three interstate matches and have too much at stake to take their eye of the ball here.  

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-9.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: COWBOYS BY 13+ / OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / KYLE FELDT FIRST OR LAST TRYSCORER / CHARLIE STAINES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $33.30 

The Warriors welcome back some big guns as they continue their tightrope walk towards the post-season with a home showdown against the second-last Parramatta Eels.  

Shaun Johnson and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad return to bolster a line-up that struggled to put away Wests Tigers 28-16 last Friday.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck moves to the wing and Te Maire Martin has been axed altogether, Tom Ale replaces the injured Jackson Ford on the bench in the Warriors’ only other change. 

The Warriors should have put the Tigers to the sword after getting to a 14-0 halftime lead but the match was still in the balance until the latter stages.

On the plus side, Addin Fonua-Blake was an absolute behemoth in the middle, and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and RTS had season-best games.  

Parramatta is on a six-match losing streak but lost few admirers in a 32-14 loss to Melbourne last Friday.  

Despite the absence of Mitch Moses, the Eels were arguably the better team in the first half before fading late.

Dylan Brown’s running game was outstanding, while a dynamic back-row of Bryce Cartwright, Shaun Lane and Ryan Matterson will again look to cause a few headaches this week.  

The Warriors’ 46-10 demolition of the Eels at CommBank last season snapped a four-match losing streak in the rivalry.

This is Parramatta’s first trip to Mt Smart since 2017, losing six of their last seven at the ground.  

The Warriors are 4-1-3 at Mt Smart Stadium in 2024 and have struggled to produce their best footy at the sold-out fortress.

But the poise of Johnson – assuming he is close to fully fit – and CNK’s rock-solid presence at the back renders this side arguably the strongest the Warriors have run out this season. 

The out-of-contention Eels are 0-9 away from CommBank, making them impossible to back against a Warriors team that simply has to win this one to stay alive.

The Eels may provide decent value against a hefty line, however.  

Tip: Back the Warriors to Win by 1-12 Points @ $3.20 

SGM: WARRIORS WIN / EELS +13.5 / UNDER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / MOALA GRAHAM-TAUFA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MARATA NIUKORE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $122.38 

After a couple of agonising losses, the freefalling Dolphins will aim to put their quest for the Top 8 back on the rails against the heavyweight Sydney Roosters in Perth.  

The Dolphins have tumbled to eighth spot with a host of teams breathing down their neck after winning just two of their last eight.

They were outscored in the second half in all eight of those games, including last Sunday’s 21-14 loss to the Titans – after leading 14-0. 

The Dolphins looked locked in early with Isaiya Katoa in sizzling touch, but discipline with and without the ball went out the window in a massive blow to their finals bid.  

The third-placed Roosters were on track to bounce back emphatically from a disappointing 24-8 loss in Melbourne, racing out to a 22-0 lead against in-form Manly last Saturday.

But a sketchy second half – in which they gave away three intercept tries – made for a nervous 34-30 win.  

Nevertheless, it was the premiership contenders’ fifth win in six game as they look certain to finish in the top four.

The Roosters also get Joey Manu back from a hand injury this week in time to replace the suspended Michael Jennings.  

The Dolphins famously upset the Roosters 28-18 on premiership debut at Suncorp Stadium last year, but the Tricolours squared the ledger with a 30-14 win in Sydney in Round 24.  

The Dolphins are 2-3 interstate in 2024, while the Roosters are 3-2.

Most concerning, though, is the Dolphins have conceded 21-plus points in eight straight games 10 of 11.

Expect the Roosters to make a statement after almost letting it slip last week.  

Tip: Back the Roosters to Score Over 29.5 Total Points @ $1.85 

SGM: ROOSTERS -11.5 / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / ANGUS CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOSEPH MANU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $33.07 

In one of the most crucial south-east Queensland derbies of all time, Gold Coast Titans and Brisbane Broncos are essentially fighting for Top 8 survival at Cbus Super Stadium on Saturday afternoon.  

The rivals are locked on 20 points – four shy of eighth spot – and face the prospect of having to win every game from here on out.

They are also coming off contrasting Round 21 outcomes.  

The Titans have won three of their last four, bouncing back from a 38-8 loss at Manly with a stirring 21-14 victory over the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium, rallying from 14-0 down.  

Jayden Campbell was excellent back at five-eighth, the likes of Moeaki Fotuaika led the engine-room effort and grabbed a double to take his tally to 18 tries from his last 12 games.  

The Broncos have lost seven of their last eight, with an impressive 30-14 win in Newcastle with Adam Reynolds returning swept away by a shattering 41-16 home loss to Canterbury.

After clawing back to 16-10 down at halftime, their second-half capitulation defied belief.  

The Broncos’ plight has been compounded with Selwyn Cobbo stood down; Corey Oates replaces him in the backline.

Brendan Piakura (quad) is back to bolster the pack, pushing Kobe Hetherington to the bench.  

The Titans carved out a stunning 36-34 comeback win over the Broncos in Round 12, their second straight win over ‘big brother’ at Suncorp Stadium, but the Broncos have won the teams’ last two clashes on the Gold Coast.  

Four of the last six derbies have produced 59-plus points.  

The overwhelming class in the Broncos’ line-up – Walsh, Reynolds, Carrigan, Haas – should jolt the 2023 grand finalists into a season-saving performance.

But the Titans, $2.45 outsiders, are playing more reliable footy and have won three of their last four at home.  

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+5.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM TO WIN BY 1-10 POINTS / OVER 53.5 TOTAL POINTS / KEANO KINI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DEINE MARINER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRENDAN PIAKURA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $62.27 

Melbourne Storm’s march towards the minor premiership continues with a home assignment against a desperate St George Illawarra Dragons outfit.  

The Storm remain four points clear of the NRL field, extending their winning streak to seven matches with a hard-earned 32-14 defeat of Parramatta on Friday.

Jahrome Hughes and Will Warbrick were standouts among Melbourne’s cast of weekly overachievers.  

Cameron Munster is back in the No.6 this week after a successful return from injury off the bench. Five-eighth fill-in Tyran Wishart takes up a familiar interchange role and Sua Faalogo goes to 18th man. 

St George Illawarra came off the bye with a 46-10 loss to Penrith in Wollongong, continuing a trend of heavy defeats to the NRL’s heavyweights when Origin absences are not a factor.

Ben Hunt was well off his game and the Saints’ defence conceded more than 40 points for the fifth time in 2024.  

Tyrell Sloan’s demotion to NSW Cup lasted only a week – he returns at fullback with his replacement, Mat Feagai, rubbed out after a head knock.

Ryan Couchman replaces suspended twin Tob on the bench, while Blake Lawrie joins the interchange for Ben Murdoch-Masila (foot). 

The Storm have won five of their last six against the Dragons, including a 38-28 result in their sole 2023 clash in Round 25 with Warbrick bagging a hat-trick.  

Melbourne is a whopping 19.5-point favourite – a margin the ladder leaders have only breached twice this season.

Don’t expect an upset, but St George Illawarra should at least turn up and cover at AAMI Park.  

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+19.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: STORM BY 11-20 POINTS / OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAHROME HUGHES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / RYAN PAPENHUYZEN & ZAC LOMAX TO HAVE 2+ TRIES COMBINED @ $37.01 

Wilting South Sydney Rabbitohs need to win every remaining game to have any chance of featuring in the finals, while Cronulla Sharks will move from top-four hopefuls to fighting for their Top 8 spot with another loss.  

The Sharks have won just two of their last seven, following up a 58-6 rout of the Tigers and the Round 20 bye with a 30-22 loss to the Cowboys in Townsville.

Nicho Hynes’ and Will Kennedy’s absences were keenly felt in a patchy team performance.  

Fullback Kennedy returns from suspension, while Sam Stonestreet replaces injured Sharks winger Ronaldo Mulitalo.

Royce Hunt and Jack Williams are back, but Tom Hazleton has been ruled out.  

The 15th-placed Rabbitohs’ revival has got the wobbles with Latrell Mitchell sidelined, bookending a scrappy 42-28 win over the Tigers with away losses to the Dolphins (38-26) and Raiders (32-12).  

Souths get Cameron Murray back from his Origin suspension, while Fletcher Myers will debut on the wing following Alex Johnston’s season-ending Achilles blow.

Richie Kennar returns in the centres with Michael Chee Kam going to the bench.  

After losing four of the teams’ previous five encounters, the Sharks beat the Rabbitohs 26-16 in Perth late last season and 34-22 at Accor Stadium in Round 6 this year.

The Sharks have also won four of their last five against Souths at home.  

This game has a flip-of-the-coin feel about it and the Sharks have no business being an 11.5-point favourite given their recent lack of consistency.

The Rabbitohs haven’t given up the ghost yet and will be much better for skipper Murray’s presence.  

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (+11.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY 1-10 POINTS / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / WILLIAM KENNEDY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $26.69 

Newcastle Knights are still in the finals mix, but they need a form reversal coming off the bye – and they face the toughest assignment in the NRL this Sunday, a road trip to take on the rampant, Nathan Cleary-led Penrith Panthers.  

The second-placed Panthers have emerged from the arduous Origin period and welcomed Cleary back into the driver’s seat.

He started with an incredible golden point field goal as a severely depleted side edged the Dolphins in Round 20, then scored a hat-trick in a 46-10 beatdown of the Dragons.  

The Panthers will be without James Fisher-Harris (groin), which sees Lindsay Smith start and Matt Eisenhuth join the bench.

Isaiah Iongi will make his NRL debut at fullback with Daine Laurie joining Dylan Edwards on the sidelines.  

The Knights have the look of a team about to fade miserably out of the Top 8 race, winning just two of their last seven.

They went into the bye on the back of heavy losses to Manly away (44-6) and Brisbane at home (30-14).  

Adam O’Brien has dropped Jackson Hastings, with Phoenix Crossland thrown into the No.7 and Jayden Brailey restored to the starting hooker role.

Dylan Lucas goes to centre for the injured Bradman Best and Adam Elliott returns from injury. Jack Cogger comes onto the bench.  

The Knights boast just one win from their last 15 matches against the Panthers and have lost the last six straight – though the margin in the past three was eight or less, including a 26-18 result in Newcastle in Round 15.  

Conceding 24-plus points in seven of their last eight games is a less than ideal trend heading into a visit to Penrith.

The Panthers are in the zone and looking to consolidate a top-two finish – a landslide looms.  

Tip: Back the Knights to Score Under 14.5 Total Points @ $1.85 

SGM: PANTHERS -17.5 / BRIAN TO’O TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / NATHAN CLEARY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LIAM MARTIN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $28.57 

A huge swing match with the fifth-placed Canterbury Bulldogs and ninth-placed Canberra Raiders only separated by two points ahead of this Belmore Sports Ground showdown. 

After dropping two of their previous four games – in which they were unable to score more than 18 points – the Bulldogs produced one of the club’s finest attacking exhibitions in a decade to eviscerate the Broncos 41-16 at Suncorp Stadium.  

Hat-trick hero Connor Tracey and Toby Sexton continue to prove their value since breaking into the Canterbury spine, while centres Bronson Xerri and Jacob Kiraz were magnificent, as were edge forwards Jacob Preston and Viliame Kikau. 

The news keeps getting better for the Bulldogs as Stephen Crichton and Josh Addo-Carr return, bumping Jeral Skelton and an unlucky Blake Wilson out of the side.  

The Raiders have regrouped just in time, ending a four-game slide with back-to-back home wins over the Warriors (20-18) and Rabbitohs (32-12) on the back of fast starts.  

The mini-revival has coincided with the return of linchpin Jamal Fogarty from a long-term injury, while the likes of Hudson Young continue to deliver the goods every week.  

The Bulldogs confront a nine-match losing streak against the Raiders, including a 24-20 result in Magic Round after blowing a big lead.  

Canterbury has won just three of its last 12 at the spiritual home of Belmore, but a 32-0 win over Gold Coast in Round 3 – the Bulldogs’ only match there so far in 2024 – kick-started their campaign.

There’s plenty to inspire the Raiders, too, with Josh Papalii celebrating 300 games.  

The Bulldogs are too short at $1.38 but should take the result as they keep pushing towards a top-four finish.  

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Win by 1-12 Points @ $3.00 

SGM: RAIDERS +8.5 / UNDER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / XAVIER SAVAGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CONNOR TRACEY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $25.77 

2023

The NRL regular season is heading into home straight and Round 22 boasts a stack of critical showdowns.

The Roosters, Knights, Sea Eagles and Dolphins all hit the road in a bid to keep their finals hopes alive, while Round 21 losers the Storm and Eels square off in a pivotal blockbuster at Marvel Stadium.

The Rabbitohs get a chance to bounce back against the Tigers in Tamworth and the beleaguered Sharks will attempt to arrest their slide in the dominant premiers’ backyard.

Competition co-leaders Brisbane Broncos are aiming to consolidate their top-two position against a Sydney Roosters side that enjoyed a long-awaited turnaround in Round 21 but need to keep winning to stay in the finals frame.

The Broncos have won six of their last seven, with the return of Reece Walsh and Payne Haas – along with a blistering performance from centre Kotoni Staggs – spearheading a 36-20 win over Souths on the Sunshine Coast after they trailed at halftime.

The Broncos welcome Origin forward Thomas Flegler (foot) back, with Keenan Palasia slipping back to the bench.

Winger Deine Mariner and back-rower Brendan Piakura come into the starting side for suspended duo Jesse Arthars and Martin Taupau.

After winning just two of their previous nine games and sliding to 14th, the Roosters – with the second-worst attacking stats in the NRL – blew Gold Coast away on the road last Saturday, leading 36-0 early in the second half.

The Tricolours took their foot off the gas in a 36-18 win, but the signs were highly encouraging. Embattled NSW skipper James Tedesco was in vintage touch.

The Roosters’ only change sees Victor Radley (hamstring) return at lock, with Siua Wong the player to drop out of the 17.

The Roosters have won five of the clubs’ last six encounters, including victories at Suncorp (24-20) and the SCG (34-16) last season.

But Trent Robinson’s side has struggled to handle the attacking firepower of the competition’s top sides over the past couple of months – and no team’s offence is more dangerous than the Broncos’.

11 of Brisbane’s 14 wins this season were by 8+ margins and they look a solid bet to cover.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (-8) @ $1.90

SGM: BRONCOS WIN / OVER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOSEPH MANU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $15.52

Wests Tigers are making a beeline for a second straight wooden spoon, with an 18-14 cellar-dweller battle loss to St George Illawarra their seventh in a row.

But this week in Tamworth the 3-15 Tigers – $8.50 underdogs against heavyweights South Sydney – are bolstered by the return of Luke Brooks, Charlie Staines and Shawn Blore. Brandon Wakeham, Tommy Talau and Alex Seyfarth drop out.

The Rabbitohs will be relishing the opportunity to play a struggling team and slipping out of the Top 8 courtesy of six losses from their last eight games. After leading at halftime, they were overrun 36-20 by the Broncos last Friday – the seventh time in eight games they have conceded 28-plus points.

A late withdrawal from the Broncos clash, Latrell Mitchell is set to return for his first match since Round 12, Jed Cartwright replaces Tallis Duncan on the Rabbitohs’ interchange bench.

The Tigers lost few admirers after a 20-0 loss to the in-form Rabbitohs in Round 11, with the heavyweights only sealing the result with a couple of late tries as Taane Milne bagged a double.

It was the Tigers’ sixth loss in seven encounters with Souths.

This is simply too important for Souths to envisage them losing to a side that has averaged 13.5 points for and 30 points against in their last seven matches.

Don’t expect miracles from Latrell as he eases his way back, but the champion fullback’s return will provide the Bunnies with a major boost.

Tip: Back Rabbitohs Over 34.5 Total Points @ $1.96

SGM: RABBITOHS BY 21-30 POINTS / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / CAMPBELL GRAHAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CAMERON MURRAY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $36.63

Arguably the marquee clash of a round packed with big showdowns, Melbourne and Parramatta are both coming off two losses from their last three games ahead of their encounter at Marvel Stadium.

The Storm blew an early 12-0 lead in Newcastle, ultimately going down 26-18 via a string of defensive lapses in the 10 minutes either side of halftime, which saw Craig Bellamy gave his team a rocket for an apparent lack of desire.

Meanwhile, they have slipped to fourth and risk regressing into a midtable logjam with another defeat.

The Storm have made four changes with centre duo Reimis Smith and Justin Olam, injured enforcer Nelson Asofa-Solomona and suspended Tariq Sims all out.

Young Tonumaipea and Marion Seve come into the backline, wile Tyran Wishart comes back onto the bench and Eliesa Katoa returns from injury.

Parramatta stormed back into contention with a five-match winning streak, but the 2022 grand finalists are teetering again in eighth with losses to the Warriors (46-10) and Cowboys (24-16) either side of a one-point win over the Titans in Round 20.

Only the late enterprise of Clint Gutherson and Mitch Moses gave the scoreline in Townsville some respectability…the reality is they were well-beaten.

The Eels – already hit by the suspensions of Maika Sivo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard a week earlier – have lost Shaun Lane (elbow), giving Joey Lussick an interchange opportunity with Andrew Davey moving into the starting side.

The Storm snatched a 16-12 golden point win at CommBank Stadium in Round 1, snapping an uncharacteristic four-match losing streak against Parramatta.

The Eels won a golden point epic in Melbourne last season 28-24 and the teams’ last six clashes were decided by 1-12 margins.

Expect another super-tight one between the high-profile outfits here, with the Eels’ handy recent record in the rivalry enhancing their value as a distinct outsider.

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / UNDER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / MITCHELL MOSES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / WILL WARBRICK ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $60.79

Following some golden point heartbreak last week, Canberra aims to cement its Top 8 standing at home to a Newcastle side that has re-entered the playoffs race with a sensational Round 21 upset.

The Raiders stayed in the fight against the Warriors sufficiently to almost pull off a miracle win, conjuring two tries in the last 90 seconds to send the match into extra-time…where they were foiled by a field goal.

It was only the Green Machine’s third loss in 13 games and they’re still in a share of third – but a poor for-and-against sees them fifth on the ladder.

The Knights regrouped from midseason slump by thrashing the Bulldogs and Tigers, before overcoming an early 12-point deficit to stun the Storm 26-18 last weekend.

Newcastle’s dynamic back-five – with Kalyn Ponga the fulcrum – spearheaded a win that hoisted the Knights to within a point of the Top 8.

The Raiders’ 17 is unchanged, while the Knights have lost Daniel Saifiti (thigh) with Brodie Jones joining the bench.

Newcastle carved out a 24-14 upset over Canberra at home in Round 4, with Greg Marzhew storming over for a double on club debut.

It came on the back of a pair of nerve-shredding Raiders victories against the Knights in 2022 characterised by big comebacks and hectic finishes.

The Knights have won four of the teams’ last six encounters, but they have won only one of their last six at GIO Stadium.

Canberra is giving away only 3.5 points at the line despite a home advantage. All 11 of the Raiders’ wins this season were by 10 points or less, including six by four points or fewer.

This has the makings of another cliff-hanger between two sides who rarely put a cohesive 80 minutes together.

But the Raiders should find a way to scrape in, as they’ve done repeatedly in tight contests (last week notwithstanding) over the past three months.

Tip: Back the Raiders by 1-12 @ $3.25

SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 45.5 POINTS / MATT TIMOKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $11.62

Manly knocked over a heavyweight last week to stay in the finals picture and a fixture with the 16th-placed team should, in theory, provide a gilt-edged opportunity this Saturday – but there’s a couple of bogeys at play ahead of this WIN Stadium clash.

The Sea Eagles have a dreadful recent record against the Dragons, winning only two of the clubs’ last nine encounters.

The Saints won the sole 2022 meeting 20-6 at Kogarah on the back of a Ben Hunt double, meanwhile, Manly has not won at Wollongong since 2003.

Anthony Seibold’s charges powered to a 30-0 lead after 45 minutes at Cronulla last Sunday, before narrowly avoiding the biggest collapse in premiership history in a 30-26 win. The upshot was the Sea Eagles have closed to within a point of the Top 8.

St George Illawarra all but staved off the wooden spoon, kicking four points clear of last with an 18-14 win over fellow strugglers Wests Tigers inspired by some flashes of brilliance from maligned centre Zac Lomax.

It was just the Dragons’ fifth win of the season.

Connor Muhleisen will debut off the bench for the Saints in the place of Super League-bound Moses Mbye.

Manly’s forward stocks have been hit by injuries to Taniela Paseka and Josh Aloiai, but Toafofoa Sipley and Ethan Bullemor provide solid cover.

The Dragons are 2-3 at WIN Stadium this season, while last week’s win was just the Sea Eagles’ third in 10 games away from 4 Pines Park.

The desperation of Manly’s situation has to be a valuable motivator against the out-of-contention hosts, but it’s hard to see a blowout unfolding.

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles by 1-12 @ $2.85

SGM: DRAGONS +6.5 / OVER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / MIKAELE RAVALAWA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TOLUTAU KOULA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $14.62

Penrith appears to be in cruise control towards its third minor premiership in four seasons, while Cronulla has drifted from likely top-four team to potential Top 8 dropouts in a disastrous fortnight.

The ladder-leading Panthers have won nine of their last 10, easily disposing of the Bulldogs 44-18 in Nathan Cleary’s return match, with Brian To’o and Tyrone Peachey bagging doubles.

Taking their foot off the pedal in the second half, it was only the third time this season the champs have leaked more than 17 points.

Matt Eisenhuth replaces the injured Spencer Leniu, while gun Panthers centre Izack Tago remains sidelined.

The Sharks are sixth and could be ninth by the end of the weekend, reeling from a 44-12 loss to the Warriors in Auckland and a 30-26 defeat to Manly at home.

They rallied impressively from 30-0 down last Sunday, but the comeback could not disguise the threadbare defence of the first 45 minutes.

Wade Graham (toe) returns in the place of suspended rookie Jesse Colqhoun, while Cameron McInnes starts at lock with Dale Finucane out.

Siosifa Talakai – axed from the starting team along with Matt Moylan after the Auckland debacle – is on the bench after pulling out late last week.

Penrith has won five of its last six against Cronulla, including a 20-10 result at home in the teams’ lone 2022 encounter. The Sharks last won at Penrith in 2018.

The Sharks have an appalling record against the competition’s better teams this season and have suffered some terrible beatings on the road.

The $6.20 underdogs need a miracle against the NRL’s benchmark, who have won 32 of their last 35 at home.

Tip: Back the Panthers Over 28.5 Total Points @ $1.87

SGM: PANTHERS BY 11-20 / OVER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / SCOTT SORENSEN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $23.38

The Dolphins head to Bundaberg for a must-win clash with surrogate home Canterbury Bulldogs, who are haemorrhaging points but get a host of key stars back this week.

The 6-13 Bulldogs dropped to second-last with their sixth loss from seven games last Sunday, overrun 44-18 by a Panthers side that barely had to get out of second gear.

Their NRL-worst defence includes 32-plus points conceded in their last six games.

The Bulldogs are boosted by the return of Viliame Kikau from an 18-week layoff, as well as Josh Addo-Carr, Jacob Preston, Braidon Burns and No.7 Toby Sexton.

Jake Averillo reverts to fullback for Hayze Perham after playing halfback last week, while new recruit Liam Knight is in the reserves contingent.

The Dolphins’ last bye lifted them back to within two points of the Top 8, but they have won just one of their last five.

After a golden point eclipse of a depleted Titans outfit, the premiership newcomers were run down late by a Penrith side missing its Origin contingent 24-14.

Origin star Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow returns to the fullback role, with Valynce Te Whare moving back to centre, Tesi Nui returning on the wing, Kodi Nikorima shifting to five-eighth and Anthony Milford to the bench. Jeremy Marshall-King (shoulder) is a huge inclusion at hooker.

Those changes – along with the neutral venue – may just be enough for the Dolphins to stay alive. With one of the softer runs home of any team, they remain a genuine finals chance and their enterprising attack and engine-room experience should see them over the line in a high-scorer.

Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (-3.5) @ $1.90

SGM: DOLPHINS WIN / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAKE AVERILLO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $19.22

Another crunch game to finish the round with Gold Coast essentially in a do-or-die situation and North Queensland eager to keep its roll going after climbing into the Top 8 for the first time in 2023.

The Titans had been gallant in tight losses to the Raiders (26-22), Dolphins (23-21 in golden point) and Eels (25-24), but with so much on the line they dropped their bundle in a 36-18 home loss to the previously struggling Roosters.

The Titans trailed 36-0 early in the second half as their trademark defensive frailties returned to roost for the first time since Jim Lenihan took the reins.

The Cowboys are on a blistering six-match winning streak that has catapulted them from second-last to seventh.

A renewed defensive vigour is complementing an effervescent attack led by in-form fullback Scott Drinkwater; both aspects influenced a 24-16 defeat of Parramatta last week in equal measure.

The Titans’ group of 17 is unchanged, though there is some engine-room shuffling between the starting pack and the bench.

The Cowboys endured a couple of injury setbacks with Jeremiah Nanai (AC joint) and Griffin Neame (HIA) both ruled out; Sam McIntyre and Jamayne Taunoa-Brown come onto the bench.

The Cowboys have won 13 of their last 16 against the Titans, including a 24-12 result in Townsville in Round 4.

The Titans are capable of matching it with most teams if given any leeway, but the Cowboys are in the zone right now and should leave Gold Coast with another valuable two points.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win by 1-12 @ $3.00

SGM: HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME – COWBOYS/COWBOYS / OVER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LUCIANO LEILUA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $25.41

2022

There’s just four weeks of the NRL regular season remaining and Round 22 features a host of blockbusters.

Depleted big dogs Penrith and Melbourne kick things off on Thursday, while there’s massive Top 8 showdowns on the Friday (Parramatta v South Sydney) and Saturday (Sydney Roosters v North Queensland).

Meanwhile, it’s do or die for both teams when St George Illawarra and Canberra lock horns, while Brisbane is desperate to get back on track against Newcastle and Manly faces a must-win assignment on the Gold Coast.

The much-anticipated Magic Round clash between the NRL’s preeminent heavyweights was a fizzer – and injuries again have taken the wind out of the sails of what for a long time seemed a preview of an inevitable grand final showdown.

Penrith bounced back from just its second loss of the season in Round 20, which was compounded by the suspended Nathan Cleary joining Jarome Luai on the sidelines, by overpowering a desperate Canberra team 26-6.

Five-eighth Jaeman Salmon became the unwitting centre of a post-match frenzy, but he did a solid job alongside fellow halves deputy Sean O’Sullivan. Gutsy fullback Dylan Edwards was typically superb against the Raiders, but front-row powerhouse James Fisher-Harris has copped a two-match ban.

Melbourne has moved on from its jarring four-match losing streak, carving out a couple of scratchy but important wins over battlers the Warriors and Gold Coast. Cameron Munster scored a hat-trick in a fullback masterclass against the Titans, while Cooper Johns returned to first grade with three try-assists.

But an injury to Jahrome Hughes will see Munster and Johns combine in the halves this week, with Nick Meaney set to come back in at fullback. Centre steamroller Justin Olam is a big in for the Storm, but Felise Kaufusi will miss the clash for family reasons.

Penrith’s 32-6 Magic Round thrashing of a weakened Melbourne was its fifth from the teams’ past eight encounters. This is just the rivals’ second match at the Panthers’ home ground since 2015.

The Panthers are understandably less dangerous sans Cleary and Luai, but they remain defensively ruthless and their replacements boast enough poise and punch to ensure the tries are still piling up. The Storm still look a shadow of themselves and must cut down their error rate to be any chance here.

But the mercurial Munster’s presence and JFH’s absence is reason enough to get behind the Storm with the start here.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 10.5 POINTS / UNDER 40.5 POINTS / XAVIER COATES ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $7.67

The third edition of the Warriors’ homecoming series sees them striving to pull away from wooden spoon danger against the wildcard team of the bottom half.

The Warriors hit their lowest point of Stacey Jones’ interim tenure, thrashed 48-10 by Souths in a putrid defensive display. They leaked eight tries in the opening 56 minutes with embarrassing ease before the Rabbitohs took their foot off the gas.

The nomadic side – seemingly bereft of confidence and attacking ideas – has now lost 11 of their last 12 games. Beset by injuries, the Warriors have recalled Daejarn Asi at five-eighth and Wayde Egan reverts to hooker, while Vilami Vailea is back at centre and Eliesa Katoa comes onto the bench

Canterbury pushed high-flying North Queensland all the way in Bundaberg on Sunday. The Bulldogs rocketed to a 10-0 lead on the back of in-form superstars Josh Addo-Carr and Matt Burton, while they still led with 20 minutes left. If the season was a few rounds longer, Mick Potter’s misfits would be genuine finals contenders.

In the Bulldogs’ only change, rookie Harrison Edwards comes into the 17 for the unavailable Tevita Pangai Jr.

The Warriors have won their last three against the Bulldogs, including a comfortably 24-10 victory at Redcliffe late last season. The Bulldogs’ last victory at Mt Smart Stadium was back in 2012.

The Mt Smart factor is about the only element working in the Warriors’ favour in the lead-up to this one. They dominated the Tigers and were more than competitive against the Storm at their spiritual home.

But it’s hard to see where their points are going to come from (they haven’t scored more than three tries in their past seven games) and effervescent Bulldogs offence will be licking its lips at the prospect of lining up against the NRL’s most porous defence.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: BULLDOGS WIN / UNDER 46.5 POINTS / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRY SCORER / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $17.98

Parramatta and South Sydney are just about over the line in terms of sealing their places in the finals, but it’s crunch time for their respective Top 4 bids as fifth hosts sixth on Friday night.

The 13-7 Eels haven’t yet shaken their inconsistent tag, but they have won four of their last five. After beating the 12-man Panthers 34-10 – and losing Mitch Moses to injury in the process – the blue-and-golds surged away late to beat the Sea Eagles 36-20, with Dylan Brown and Clint Gutherson very prominent.

The Rabbitohs have won five of their last six, responding to their dramatic golden point loss at Cronulla with a 48-10 beatdown of a limp Warriors outfit.

Latrell Mitchell and Cameron Murray toyed with the Warriors and will set the tempo for Souths again here. Mitchell returned from a long injury layoff in the Rabbitohs’ emphatic 30-12 win over the Eels in Round 16 and has transformed their campaign.

Only minor changes for both sides with Ofahiki Ogden coming onto the Eels’ bench for Makahese Makatoa and Souths’ front-row bolstered by Hame Sele’s return and Daniel Suluka-Fifita dropping out.

Souths have now won five straight against Parramatta – scoring 30-plus points and achieving a 14-plus winning margin in each – including the last two at the Eels’ CommBank Stadium fortress.

The Rabbitohs are $1.53 favourites on the road but this feels like a flip of the coin with plenty at stake as both teams strive for the Top 4. Both teams have scored 24-plus points in five of their last seven outings and the over shapes as a sound play.

Tip: Back Over 46.5 Total Points @ $1.90

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY 12.5 POINTS OR LESS / EELS OVER 19.5 POINTS / WILL PENISINI ANYTIME TRY SCORER / DAMIEN COOK ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $29.45

Another match of the round contender as the second-placed North Queensland Cowboys head south to take on the streaking Sydney Roosters.

The Roosters have won four in a row – scoring 150 points in the process – and were far too good for the Broncos in a 34-16 victory last Thursday. Luke Keary and Victor Radley are finding their groove after injury-interrupted periods, while James Tedesco’s influence behind a steamrolling forward pack has been palpable post-Origin.

This is a key clash for the Tricolours, however; they remain eighth with a two-point lead on the chasing bunch and face a tough run home. Hooker Sam Verrills (HIA protocols) is in doubt but Egan Butcher returns from a one-game ban on the Roosters’ bench.

The Cowboys have won 13 of their last 15 games and have put the controversial defeat of the Tigers behind them with an authoritative 34-8 win over the Dragons and a 28-14 comeback victory against the dangerous Bulldogs after being slow out of the blocks.

Reuben Cotter made a superb comeback from injury against Canterbury, while spine trio Chad Townsend, Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater continue to shine. Jordan McLean returns this week from the hamstring injury that ruled him out of the Origin decider.

The Cowboys are looking to snap a four-match losing streak against the Roosters, while they haven’t beaten the Tricolours in a regular-season game in Sydney since 2010. The Chooks cruised to a 28-4 victory over a sin-bin-stricken Cowboys side in Townsville in Round 4.

But the Cowboys a far tougher proposition these days and provide strong underdog value here if they can slow the Roosters’ roll through the middle. Strap in for potentially one of the best games of the season so far.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win @ $2.30

SGM: COWBOYS +3.5 / UNDER 46.5 POINTS / ANGUS CRICHTON ANYTIME TRY SCORER / VALENTINE HOLMES ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $63.10

Tamworth gets another taste of the NRL courtesy of a fixture that has key ramifications for both ends of the ladder.

The goodwill second-last Wests Tigers painstakingly regained in a controversial after-the-siren loss to the Cowboys and a stirring 32-18 upset of the Broncos dissipated on Sunday via a 14-10 defeat to fellow strugglers the Knights.

Jackson Hastings’ absence made a glaring difference to a Tigers attack that could muster only two tries and the then-worst defence in the comp. A maiden wooden spoon remains very much on the cards for the joint venture.

Cronulla, meanwhile, sits outright third and is threatening to climb higher after losing just one (to Penrith) of its last eight games. The Sharks followed up their nerve-shredding golden point win over in-form Souths with a patchy 24-18 defeat of the desperate Dragons – with Nicho Hynes calling the tune in both.

Ken Maumalo is out for the Tigers, which sees James Roberts come in at centre and Starford Toa shift to the wing. The Sharks get Dale Finucane back but Connor Tracey is out, replaced on the wing by Lachie Miller. Matt Moylan remains sidelined.

The Sharks have won eight of their last nine against the Tigers, including a 50-20 mauling in Rockhampton late last season and a 30-4 rout in the Shire in Round 5 this year. A similar result looms this Saturday.

Tip: Back the Tigers to Win by 13+ @ $1.87

SGM: OVER 43.5 POINTS / SHARKS BY 21-30 / JESSE RAMIEN TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $42.40

Brisbane is in a tight spot coming into Round 22 after convincing back-to-back losses to the Tigers and Roosters, tumbling to seventh on the ladder.

This week Te Maire Martin returns at fullback for Tesi Niu, while Brenko Lee has been brought into the centre for rookie Deine Mariner.

The Broncos get a gift-wrapped opportunity to get back on track courtesy of a visit from the 13th-placed Newcastle Knights.

Adam O’Brien’s embattled Knights showed a decent amount of resolve to outlast the Tigers 14-10 last Sunday for their sixth win of 2022.

David Klemmer gets a reprieve after being stood down for disciplinary reason, but Mitch Barnett (thumb) is out and Adam Clune comes in for Jake Clifford (arm).

After losing four straight to the Knights, the Broncos have chalked up two high-scoring wins in the rivalry in the past 11 months. They won 35-22 at home in the final round of 2021 and carved out a fast-finishing 36-12 result in Newcastle in Round 11 this year.

Last week snapped a run of dismal defensive displays from the Knights, but they are averaging just 12 points scored per game over the past month. The Broncos boast ample attacking firepower and will be acutely aware of the importance of getting the W here.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Score Over 30.5 Points @ $1.88

SGM: OVER 44.5 POINTS / BRONCOS BY 11-20 POINTS / SELWYN COBBO TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $25.15

Canberra and St George Illawarra come together for a crunch game just six weeks after a highly controversial finish in the Wollongong wet. The Dragons took the spoils 12-10 that day but can book a non-refundable September holiday if they can’t get a repeat result in the capital.

The Dragons have slipped four points adrift of eighth thanks to four losses in their last five games, including defeats to Top 4 heavyweights the Cowboys (34-8) and Sharks (24-18) in the past fortnight. Tariq Sims has been rubbed out of the last month of the regular season via suspension.

Billy Burns and Tyrell Fuimaono are new faces on the Saints’ bench with Francis Molo also dropping out.

The Raiders have been in the news for the wrong reasons this week after a 26-6 drubbing at the hands of an under-strength Panthers side. Ricky Stuart’s instantly-infamous “weak-gutted dog” spray leaves the ninth-placed Green Machine even more vulnerable.

‘Sticky’ has been suspended from this match and banned from having contact with the team. The disappointing result at the foot of the mountains snapped an encouraging three-match winning streak that had kept the Raiders in a share of eighth.

Meanwhile, the outstanding Joseph Tapine has been ruled out, replaced in the 17 by Corey Horsburgh. Xavier Savage returns at fullback with Albert Hopoate shifting to the wing for the suspended Nick Cotric.

The Dragons’ last win in Canberra was back in 2015, with the Raiders lowering the Red V in 13 of the last 15 encounters at GIO Stadium.

Despite their disruptions and the Saints’ desperation, the Raiders are still warm favourites – and they should get the result at home.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.85

Another club that can forget about playing finals footy with a Round 22 loss, Manly Sea Eagles are 10th and four points adrift of the Top 8 after three straight losses to the Dragons, Roosters and Eels.

On the surface, the team emerged relatively unscathed from the rainbow jersey furore and competed well for the majority of their 36-20 defeat to the Eels. Josh Aloiai returns from injury, while Toafofoa will start at prop for Taniela Paseka (knee).

The last-placed Gold Coast Titans are on a 10-match losing streak. Six of those defeats were by 1-12 margins but the embattled and inexperienced side went down 32-14 to an under-strength Storm last week.

Erin Clark reverts to hooker with Aaron Booth suffering a terrible season-ending injury, while Tanah Boyd has been retained at halfback with Toby Sexton named in the reserves.

Manly has scored 118 points in winning its last three against Gold Coast, though the Titans put up a decent fight in a 26-18 away loss in Round 6. The Sea Eagles have won five of their last six against the Titans at Cbus Super Stadium.

There’s been patches of resilience and occasional brilliance from the Titans, but not enough to get over a Manly outfit led by Daly Cherry-Evans and mooted 2023 Gold Coast saviour Kieran Foran.

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (-6 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: SEA EAGLES WIN / UNDER 49.5 POINTS / TOLUTAU KOULA ANYTIME TRY SCORER / BRIAN KELLY ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $32.78

2021

The late season excitement continues to build as we prepare for another crucial round of footy.

Implications are high for the Raiders on Thursday night when they take on the Storm on the Sunshine Coast, while the Roosters are also hoping to slide into the top four when they face the Broncos on Friday.

Saturday sees the Rabbitohs and the Titans squaring off in a big game between 3^rd and 7^th, followed by a twilight tussle between Manly and Parramatta under lights.

As if that wasn’t enough, we’ve also got a ‘line in the sand’ type game on Sunday between the Sharks and the Knights as both sides look to keep their season alive.

With only a month remaining before the finals, check out who we’re backing in Round 22 below!

The freight train that is the Melbourne Storm just keeps on chugging as Craig Bellamy’s side now looks to extend their winning streak to 18 in a row against the Raiders on Thursday night.

The premiership favourites had their hands full in the first half against Manly last week before kicking clear to win by 10 points in the late stages to maintain their lead atop the table.

The Raiders, on the other hand, find themselves back in the eight following a gutsy win over the Dragons.

Ricky Stuart’s men were electric in the first half and showed some promising signs in the second to keep St George off the scoreboard.

Unfortunately, the Raiders face a much tougher test this week against a Storm team that has beaten them on the last three occasions.

Melbourne rattled off a comfortable 34-10 win when these two sides met back in Round 11 as the Raiders struggled to get their hands on the ball.

Given the Storm’s outstanding record on the Sunshine Coast it is no surprise to find them laying a healthy -22.5 points at the line.

Ryan Papenhuyzen looks likely to play after suffering a slight knee injury last week, while Nelson Asofa-Solomona is set to return – a worrying sign for the Raiders after scoring twice in their previous meeting.

The way Canberra has played defensively recently should see them remain competitive in this contest, but this still shapes as a serious reality check for the Green Machine against the benchmark in the competition.

With an 11-3 record as the home favourite at the line to their name, you’d be mad not to back the Storm to cover.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-22.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Panthers got back to winning ways last week with a six-point win over the Roosters as they now try and close out the season inside the top two.

Penrith’s completion rate was outstanding last week, while Ivan Cleary’s men also did a fantastic job forcing errors at key points in the game.

If the Panthers can replicate that performance it’s a recipe for success this week against a Dragons side that continues to slide down the ladder behind four consecutive losses.

While the Saints hung tough with the Raiders last week, they again failed to score more than 20 points for the fifth game in a row.

Teams that struggle to find points tend to do very poorly against the Panthers, which largely explains the -18.5 point line on offer.

The Panthers have won two of their last three games over St George by double digits, so this one has all the makings of a blowout.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-18.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Broncos will be hoping their recent run of form can translate into another surprise upset on Friday night against the Roosters.

After demolishing the Cowboys a fortnight ago, Brisbane went on to put a decent scare into the Knights last week in their eight-point loss, leaving Bronco fans hopeful of another boil-over similar to their Round 11 victory over the tri-colours.

The Broncos have shown signs of improvement in the absence of Katoni Staggs, but this is obviously a much tougher test against a Roosters side looking to bounce-back from a defeat to the Panthers.

While last week’s result has left the Roosters with work to do as far as the top four is concerned, head coach Trent Robinson has to be pleased with the effort his side produced against one of the top premiership contenders.

On the injury front, the Broncos have been dealt another blow with promising youngster Keenan Palasia suffering a fractured shoulder blade last week, while the Roosters remain hopeful Josh Morris can return for the finals.

Another upset isn’t entirely out of the question, but it’s doubtful we see the Roosters cough up the same number of errors that cost them last week against Penrith.

More importantly, the Roosters have played to a strong 6-4 record at the line following a previous loss over the last 12 months, so look for them to make a statement in what is also a bit of a revenge game.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Rabbitohs and Titans both walked away big winners in Round 21 as they look to maintain their mojo heading towards the finals.

South Sydney manhandled Parramatta from start to finish in a key top-four battle last week, while the Titans also took a big step to securing a top-eight finish with a thorough beatdown over the Cowboys.

The Bunnies have now put a cushion between themselves and the fourth-placed Eels, but they’ll likely have their sights set on the top of the ladder with only two points separating them from the Storm.

Likewise, this is also a key game for the Gold Coast with the Raiders joining the party inside the top eight.

If results go their way the Titans could lock up the seventh spot for another week, but a loss and a Raiders and Knights win could be enough to send them spiralling down the ladder.

From a betting standpoint, it’s safe to expect a number of points in this contest.

The last three games between the Rabbits and Titans have all gone Over the Total, with the most recent instalment resulting in a 40-30 South Sydney win earlier in April.

Those kinds of trends are very tough to ignore, especially when you consider the Bunnies have scored 30 points or more in each of their last three games.

With the jury still out on the Titans’ defence, a Rabbitohs win and the Over might be one of the safest bets of the week.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Win & Over 54.5 Total Points @ $2.15

It would take something very special from here, but the Tigers remain a mathematical chance at playing finals after picking up a crucial win over the Bulldogs last week.

Ken Maumalo was the star in Wests’ 12-point victory, and it’s fair to say Michael Maguire will be calling on him again on Saturday against the struggling Cowboys.

North Queensland has nothing left to play for at this point, but they’d probably like to put an end to their growing losing streak that was extended to eight last week with a blowout loss to the Titans.

Unfortunately, the news keeps getting worse for head coach Todd Payten though with Jason Taumalolo now headed for a stint on the sideline with a fractured hand.

The Tigers, meanwhile, are one of the healthier teams in the competition and that should help them make one last ditch finals bid.

Wests can also take some motivation into this contest knowing they lost a 34-30 thriller against the Cowboys back in April, and if they can manage to dominate possession like they did last week against the Dogs, they look a good bet for some revenge.

Tip: Back the Tigers 1-12 @ $3.10

The Sea Eagles will be looking to return to the winner’s circle and the top-four this week when they take on the reeling Eels on the Sunshine Coast.

Manly got a taste of finals football last week in their 10-point loss to the Storm, but there was a lot to like about the way Des Hasler’s men handled their business in the first half.

As for the Eels, the same can’t be said.

Parramatta has slumped to three losses on the trot following a lacklustre effort against the Bunnies last week, and it’s not like they can point to injuries being the problem.

The fact the Eels conceded 40 points to South Sydney is a big red flag heading into another contest against one of the top scoring sides.

Manly put up 28 points on Parramatta in a blowout defeat earlier in May, and the loss of hooker Reed Mahoney only makes life tougher for the blue and gold.

To make matters worse, 12 of Manly’s last 14 games following a loss have all gone Over the Total, so there’s a bit to like about the double ahead of this top-eight blockbuster.

Tip: Back Manly to Win & Over 50.5 Total Points @ $2.15

The Warriors can sniff the top eight following back-to-back wins over the Tigers and Sharks as they look to improve their chances even further against the wooden spoon favourites on Sunday.

The Warriors looked no chance a month ago, but a few key recruits like Addin Fonua-Blake and Chad Townsend returning to the fold has certainly helped them improve.

Canterbury, meanwhile, is back in a funk after showing some promising signs against the Rabbitohs a month ago.

The Dogs have lost seven straight games dating back to June and their track record against New Zealand doesn’t exactly make for pleasant reading.

The Warriors have won three of their last four games against the Bulldogs, while they’ve also covered the line in their last two games as the home favourite against Canterbury.

Factoring in how easy it is to score points on the Dogs right now, the Warriors should be moving one step closer to the eight.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90

The NRL may have saved the best for last with this Sunday matinee between 9^th and 10^th.

Both teams head into this game at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to form, the Knights winners of two straight and the Sharks looking to snap a two-game losing skid.

With that in mind, it’s no shock to find Newcastle as the short-priced favourite as they also look to pick up their second win of the season over Cronulla.

The Knights won a 26-22 thriller back in April thanks to a brilliant two-try performance from Kalyn Ponga, and it’s fair to say they look a much different team now that Mitchell Pearce has returned to the side.

In other good news, Bradman Best looks set to play following a shoulder scare last week, leaving the Knights at full strength as they continue their top eight push.

In terms of trends, the Knights have won three straight over Cronulla dating back to 2019 and they should no problem adding to that record if they can force the Sharks into their usual mistakes.

Cronulla has easily been one of the most unpredictable teams to bet on this season, and with the Knights in a bit of a purple patch, you’d be crazy to bet against them.

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90

2020

The NRL has your Friday and Saturday night covered with a pair of top-eight battles to look forward to this week.

After a narrow win over the Cowboys last Thursday, the Broncos face a season-defining match at Suncorp as they battle a dangerous-looking Panthers side. Next up, it’s the Storm and the Raiders from Melbourne as Canberra desperately clings to a spot inside the top four.

NRL Finals hopes are starting to fade for several clubs, which makes tipping a punters nightmare with four rounds remaining.

Fortunately, we’ve done the hard work for you, and our complete 2019 NRL Round 22 Preview can be found below.

https://youtu.be/9D6cxJ-DQ3M

https://youtu.be/DlHZPOUTUiI

Neither club managed to capitalize away from home last week with plenty on the line.

Manly lost by eight points as they travelled across the ditch to face the Warriors, leaving the Sea Eagles sitting fifth on the ladder with three rounds remaining.

Despite a strong second half, the damage was already done in the first as Manly surrendered three unanswered tries in the opening 30 minutes.

The Tigers, meanwhile, also came out flat against the Bulldogs, adding further frustration for punters and fans as Michael Maguire’s side is running out of time to find a spot back inside the eight.

These two clubs met back in Round 1, a game the Tigers won comfortably 20-6. Robbie Farrah was the star with a pair of tries, but things have certainly changed since then in the course of Manly’s season.

The Sea Eagles have lost only three of their 10 games at home this year, while they’ve also bounced back from a previous loss to the tune of a handy 5-2 record.

With Manly at a very short price, you’ll have to get creative to find some value in the market, though.

Fortunately, in their seven home wins the Sea Eagles have won by an average margin of 14-points. Throw in Manly’s 4-2 record as the line favourite at Brookvale this year, and you have a safe bet to Cover.

Tip: Back Manly to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/lPKuTEBdPS8

The Eels are well and truly on their way to playing finals now thanks to a convincing 20-14 win over the Knights.

Clinton Gutherson starred for Parramatta in the early going as he crossed the line twice in the first half. The Eels also put forward a dominant performance defensively to help control possession and earn their 12^th win of the season.

While the Eels now look towards the finals, the end of the season can’t come quick enough for the Titans. Gold Coast slumped to its seventh straight loss last week, this time to the Dragons in a 40-28 blowout.

With all eyes on September, a trip to the Gold Coast is just what the doctor ordered as the Eels prepare for the pointy end of the season.

Unfortunately, Parramatta’s recent record on the Gold Coast speaks for itself. The Eels have lost three straight games to the Titans at home, which explains the slim line set by the bookies this week.

The Titans have won only twice at home all year, which makes an upset extremely unlikely. At the same time though, the Eels have won only four of their 10 games on the road, leaving the possibility of a close, low-scoring game, relatively high.

These two sides have combined for 40-points or less in their last three encounters, so play on Friday’s game going Under the Total.

Tip: Under 44.5 Total Match Points @ $1.88

https://youtu.be/FqRJSf6vV3s

It’s only fitting that Brisbane’s season might be decided in a primetime blockbuster at Suncorp, and if it’s anything like last week’s nail-biting win over the Cowboys, Bronco fans could be in for a nervous night.

One of these sides should play finals, but is either a serious contender?

The Panthers deserve their place in the top eight following last week’s home win over the Sharks. Penrith sits seventh on the ladder, and if Nathan Cleary and Dylan Edwards can continue to dominate as they did against Cronulla, Brisbane could be in for a long night.

The Broncos are 4-4 at home this year as they look to build on last week’s less than convincing win. Errors and penalties nearly got the better of Brisbane, and despite their three-game winning streak over the Panthers, it appears even the bookies are struggling to find confidence in the Broncos.

With that in mind, Penrith hasn’t won at Suncorp since 2016, and as their 4-5 record as the away underdog suggests, it’s difficult to find faith in a Panthers upset.

For as bad as the Broncos have been defensively, it’s not like the Panthers have been any better. Penrith leads the league in missed tackles, while they also rank first in penalties conceded.

Backing the Broncos at home has been risky this season, particularly against top eight sides. Even so, with a chance to leapfrog the Panthers on the ladder, back Brisbane to delight a big Suncorp crowd.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Win @ $1.75

https://youtu.be/h4ycMrIE3oY

Newcastle’s finals hopes continue to fade following their sixth straight loss to the Eels last week.

It a do-or-die kind of game this weekend for the Knights, but fortunately, they’ll take on a Cowboys side down on confidence with a chance to find some form.

The Cowboys put in a good fight at home to the Broncos last week, right before some sloppy last-minute defence allowed Brisbane to pull off a miracle in the 79^th minute. Whether or not that motivates Michael Morgan’s side remains to be seen, but the Cowboys should take stock in the fact they’ve won three straight over the Knights dating back to 2016.

Our bookies have sided with the Knights at home, although Newcastle’s 4-6 record at McDonald Jones Stadium is hardly convincing.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, hold a 4-6 record themselves on the road, while their 1-3 record as the away underdog against Newcastle could do with some work.

Instead, you’re best off avoiding the head-to-head market altogether. The last two games played in Newcastle between these two sides have gone Over the Total, and with the Knights ranking fourth in missed tackles, we could find ourselves with a high-scoring affair on our hands.

Tip: Over 39.5 Total Match Points @ $1.88

https://youtu.be/9eS9qL-S6g4

Melbourne returns home from its successful two-game road trip hoping to add another win over a top-four opponent.

The Storm proved too strong for the Rabbitohs in Gosford last week, pulling away in the second half thanks to Cameron Munster and Brodie Croft. They’ll now head back to AAMI Park on Saturday – a ground the Raiders haven’t won at since 2013.

Canberra’s season is still on track, but coach Ricky Stuart will be looking for a full 80-minute performance from his side following last week’s loss against the Roosters.

The Raiders kept up with the reigning premiers early, but the defence struggled to contain Sydney’s forwards despite Canberra dominating possession.

A win this week will mean more to the Raiders than it will to the Storm. Canberra still finds themselves tied on points with the fourth-place Rabbitohs, while they’ll also need to win out from here if they wish to catch the second-place Roosters.

As Stuart knows well, winning in Melbourne doesn’t come easy. The Storm have lost only twice at home all year, and with a not-so-flattering 3-6 record as the away underdog against Melbourne, it’s difficult to see the Raiders pulling off an upset.

That said, there’s nothing stopping Canberra from keeping this close. The Raiders are a perfect 5-0 as the away underdog at the line this season, and they also have enough offensive weapons to match that of the Storm’s.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/Gz0m4b-vX5Y

The Rabbitohs return home this week licking their wounds following last week’s 10-point defeat at the hands of the Storm.

Outside of Campbell Graham, South Sydney struggled to find any chemistry on attack, leaving the Rabbitohs with plenty of work to do if they hold any hope of finishing top four.

The Bulldogs have nothing to play for on the ladder, but they do head to ANZ Stadium with a handy two-game winning streak.

Canterbury received a bit of a confidence boost last week defeating the Tigers 18-16 at ANZ, and although Saturday night’s game is technically an “away” fixture, you can expect the Dogs to fancy their chances against the Bunnies.

For what it’s worth, Souths are 2-4 following a previous loss this season. The good news is they’ve won four games over the Dogs dating back to 2017, but this is still a huge test of the Rabbitohs’ maturity.

The bookies aren’t giving the Bulldogs any chance this week – and why should they? The Dogs haven’t won three-straight games since 2017. Then again, Canterbury’s form at ANZ in recent weeks suggests this could be close.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.80

https://youtu.be/J1LdBkVNRRE

Four wins on the trot has the Roosters poised to strike in the finals.

It wasn’t easy, but Sydney left Canberra with a four-point win over the Raiders last week thanks to some Daniel Tupou magic. Now, Trent Robinson’s side heads back to the SCG to tackle the resurgent Warriors.

New Zealand kept their finals hopes alive last week by downing Manly 24-16 in Auckland. Winning two straight games has been a challenge for the Warriors this year, but they can at least find some confidence in the fact they beat the Roosters comfortably in Sydney last year.

A lot has changed since then though, and it’s doubtful Stephen Kearney will read too much into previous encounters. Instead, the Warriors simply need to focus on making the most of their opportunities – something the Kiwis did well last week.

As far as betting goes, it’s difficult to fade the Roosters at home. The Chooks are 9-3 as the home favourite this season, but at the same time, New Zealand’s impressive 4-1 record as the away underdog against Sydney is hard to ignore.

Unfortunately, the Warriors did do a lot wrong last week despite the result. New Zealand missed a total of 44 tackles against the Sea Eagles to go along with 13 penalties – all of which spells bad news this week in Sydney.

If you’re looking for some value, there’s nothing to say the Warriors can’t hit the scoreboard, though. New Zealand has averaged 19-points on the road this year, so back them to score a few tries.

Tip: Warriors Over 2.5 Total Tries @ $2.10

https://youtu.be/FR0D9Iux67w

There’s no love lost between these two rivals as the Sharks hope to rejoin the eight against the down and out Dragons.

In a game they had to have, Cronulla came up short last week to the Panthers to spiral down to ninth on the ladder. The Sharks now face a difficult run home, making this week’s game all the more important if Cronulla is to play finals.

The Dragons lost 22-9 against the Sharks back in Round 11, although they’ll still hold fond memories of Shark Park having won their last two trips to Cronulla.

Unfortunately, the Sharks own a tidy 6-3 record at home this year, and they typically tend to play well defensively in front of their hometown fans.

Speaking of defence, the Dragons also lead the league in tackles made this season. Cronulla’s last five home games against St. George have all gone Under the Total, so back this one to be low scoring.

Tip: Under 37.5 Total Match Points @ $1.88

2018

Just two points separate first and second, and just four points separate third and eighth.

Is that close enough for you?

As if four blockbuster upsets weren’t enough, Round 22 has plenty more in-store for footy fans.

For the third week in a row there’s not one, but two, potential Grand Final previews to look forward to, while Thursday nights Queensland Derby should provide plenty of thrills.

Picking winners has never been tougher, but we’re here to help.

Scroll below for our full 2018 NRL Round 22 Preview!

Who would’ve thought the Cowboys would emerge from last weekend as the true winners?

Okay, North Queensland failed to walk away with the points, but the wooden spoon favourites fought tooth and nail against the Roosters for a full 80-minutes, coming up just short to lose by only six-points.

In his last game at ANZ Stadium, Jonathan Thurston farewelled the ground in typical superstar fashion.

The future Hall of Famer dove over the line for a crucial try in the 57th minute, and his efforts in front of the sticks weren’t half bad either – the Cowboys’ captain slotted four of his five attempts.

As for the Broncos, things weren’t quite so peachy last week.

It was a game Brisbane should have won, but not for the first time, the Broncos showed up half an hour after the whistle.

By that point, the Bulldogs were already ahead 10-0, and although Brisbane fought back right before the half, the Broncos lack of second half resolve has to be worrying for coach Wayne Bennett.

As the Dogs went on to score three unanswered tries after the main break, the game was over.

Brisbane lost 36-22, and although they still find themselves in the eight, another tough road trip to face the Cowboys is no guarantee.

North Queensland came close to knocking off the Broncos back in Round 2 at Suncorp, but the stats don’t lie, the Cowboys are a chance this week.

Paul Green’s side jumped all over the Broncos early, scoring just two minutes into the game, and if North Queensland can replicate that form again this week, look out.

A big problem for Brisbane last week was penalties.

The Broncos will likely travel north without Josh McGuire following last weeks hair-pulling incident, but that’s still far from Brisbane’s biggest concern.

We’ve seen the Broncos lose the plot a little on the road this season, evident in last weeks 11 errors against the Dogs.

Brisbane’s so-so 5-5 record in away games is telling, as is their form up in North Queensland – the Broncos have won just once during their last five visits.

It’s tough to back the Cowboys against anybody this season, but it feels like North Queensland will still pull off one more win this season.

After last weeks close call, this might be it.

Tip: Back North Queensland To Win @ $2.25

Same Game Multi: Cowboys To Win, Enari Tuala Anytime Try Scorer ($3.20)

You can stick a fork in the Knights now.

Stuck 11th on the ladder, last weeks loss against the Tigers makes the Top 8 impossible from here.

While the Knights failed to make the most of last weeks huge opportunity though, the Warriors certainly did not.

New Zealand knew they had to win against the Dragons to put themselves back into the box-seat to play finals, and wouldn’t you know it, the Kiwis pulled off the unthinkable on Saturday down in Wollongong.

Although the Warriors win was a shock, it came as no surprise.

New Zealand have earned a name for themselves on the road this year, which ironically might spell trouble for the Warriors traveling back home this week.

On the road, the Warriors hold an impressive 8-3 record, while back on home soil, New Zealand’s record is a miserable 4-5.

So should you stay well clear of the Warriors this week?

Certainly not.

The Knights may have lost by only nine points against the Tigers, but the stat sheet tells the full story.

Newcastle were horrible in defence, committing 13 errors and missing 31 tackles.

Not only does that spell bad news for the rest of the season, it also favours the Warriors’ biggest play-makers on Friday night.

Not for the first time, Solomone Kata was the standout during New Zealand’s win over the Dragons.

He scored twice in a 10-minute span, with his last second dive over the line before half time proving the difference maker.

A loss here may not be the end of the Warriors, but it would sure make life tough from here on out.

New Zealand head back to Sydney to face the Bulldogs, followed by two straight home games against the Panthers and Raiders.

All of those are winnable, but with a chance to make the Top 4 still, the Warriors should rise to the occasion.

Tip: Back New Zealand Warriors 1-12 @ $2.80

Same Game Multi: Warriors 1-12, Solomone Kata To Score Two Or More Tries ($6.00)

The stars were on full display for both of these sides last week, and wouldn’t you know it, the Roosters and Rabbitohs have toppled the Storm as the outright Premiership favourites.

Souths were brilliant last week in every area.

Melbourne have become the masters of clinical, draining footy on both sides of the ball, but the Rabbitohs somehow cracked the Storm’s defence and piled on try after try throughout the game.

Things weren’t quite so easy for the Roosters last week, but the important thing is Sydney got the job done.

Make no mistake about it, the Cowboys can challenge just about anybody, but when Latrell Mitchell is in this kind of form, nobody is beating the Roosters easily.

Looking ahead to Friday night, this Grand Final preview should live up to expectations.

Both the Rabbitohs and Roosters are two of the more disciplined sides in the competition, but they can also wear down their opponents with rhythmical sets and lively play.

So… who wins?

It’s a punters worst nightmare, but you have to side with the Rabbitohs given last weeks triumph.

When these two last met during Round 6, the Bunnies pounced all over the Roosters right before and after the half time break, and if Damien Cook and Tom Burgess can link up for another impressive performance, Souths should be able to control the possession battle and contain the Roosters’ attack.

Tip: Back South Sydney Rabbitohs 13+ @ $4.50

Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs To Win ($1.92), Rabbitohs First Team To Score ($1.88), Damien Cook Anytime Try Scorer ($3.75)

So it looks as though James Maloney’s thumb is okay.

The Panthers’ five-eighth was electric during Penrith’s win over the Raiders last week, scoring the final try in the 77th minute to help earn a 40-31 win.

It was a resounding performance for Maloney following plenty of criticism, but more importantly, it helped keep the Panthers in touch with the Top 4.

As for the Titans, what can you say?

It’s been one extreme to the next for Gold Coast this year.

One week the Titans are capable of toppling the Warriors, and the next they fall by 16-points to the Eels on the road.

However, heading back to the Gold Coast, the Titans will fancy themselves this week.

Penrith have been ordinary away from home, winning only five of their nine games, but having racked up back-to-back wins for the first time since May, the Panthers come in as the early favourite.

In terms of who you should put money on, it’s a coin flip.

After being forced to play heavy defence and record plenty of tackles, the Panthers were lucky to escape with a win last week against the Raiders.

A more poised team on attack would have dominated Penrith in the second half, especially on the back of 10 errors, and although the Titans hardly shape up as a fierce attacking unit, on their day Gold Coast can really take care of business.

Tip: Back Gold Coast Titans To Win @ $2.75

Same Game Multi: Titans To Win, Michael Gordon Anytime Try Scorer ($3.40)

Two teams on the back of two upsets, this should be fun.

Manly went tit-for-tat with the Sharks last Sunday, in what was a scintillating shootout for all those involved.

Tom Trbojevic was the star for the Sea Eagles, but Daly Cherry-Evans’ last minute field goal sealed the one-point win for the visitors in golden point.

The Bulldogs also won a thriller over the Broncos last Friday night, a win that nobody saw coming.

The Dogs started fast against Brisbane and jumped out to a comfy lead, but Canterbury’s ability to keep the scoreboard moving in the second half was the most impressive part of their 36-22 win.

Since this is the first time these teams have met this year, you have to rewind all the way back to Round 24 last season to get a feel for how things might play out.

The Bulldogs won that game easily by 14-points, but as we now know, this is a totally new-look Canterbury outfit than the one we saw a year ago.

Most impressively, Manly’s win last week showed some poise from what has otherwise been a very unconvincing side all year.

The Sea Eagles have blown some mighty leads this season, but it was nice to see them win a thriller and potentially set themselves up for a run in these remaining three weeks.

The Sea Eagles managed to force the Sharks into plenty of errors and penalties last week as well, and if they can force the Bulldogs into the same kind of sloppy play, Manly might be staring at two straight for only the second time this season.

Tip: Back Manly Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.90

Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles 1-12, Brett Morris First Try Scorer ($11)

These two played out a thriller just six weeks ago, and given the Dragons fall from grace, anything could happen on Saturday night.

St. George were at their worst against the Warriors last week.

The Dragons failed to crack the scoreboard until the early stages of the second half, but overall, St. George’s lack of effectiveness with the ball in hand has to be a concern for coach Paul McGregor.

As for the Eels, well they have plenty to feel good about.

Jarryd Hayne hit the scoreboard for the second week in a row, and if Mitchell Moses can keep up his deadly kicking accuracy in front of the posts, Parramatta might just earn another win before the season is over.

But will that come against the Dragons?

There’s no reason it can’t.

Again, St. George were slow starters when these two met back in Round 16, coming back from a 12-0 deficit to win on a 76th minute Matt Dufty try.

The key to that game for Parra was the aerial attack and deadly accuracy in the passing game.

Those are characteristics we usually associate with the Dragons, but since St. George have become rather untrustworthy in the last month, it’s probably worth taking a look at the Over/Under markets in this one.

Tip: Over 35.5 Points @ $1.90

Same Game Multi: Dragons To Win ($1.44), Michael Jennings Anytime Try Scorer ($2.70)

It looks as though one of these teams still has life, while the other is finally toast.

The Tigers had to win against the Knights last week if they were any chance of playing finals, and they did just that.

It wasn’t always pretty, but Wests recorded a 25-16 victory in Newcastle thanks to Robbie Farah/Esan Marsters brilliance.

On the same token, the Raiders also had everything to play for.

Canberra met the Raiders in Penrith with plenty of hope, but the green machine failed to keep the scoreboard ticking in the second half following Joseph Leilua’s try, falling by nine-points to end their finals hopes.

It will take a lot from here, but the Tigers are still a mathematical chance to make the eight if they win out.

Other results will also have to go their way, but if Wests can control possession and lock down defensively like they did last week, they’ll go a long way to winning this game.

Of course, we’ve been in this position with the Tigers before, though.

They’ve had every chance to make the eight, and have so far squandered every one of them.

The Raiders are playing for nothing but pride now, and although Canberra have lost three straight, scoring hasn’t been much of a problem.

Since the Raiders hold the home field advantage this week, stick with the favourites at the line.

Tip: Back Canberra Raiders To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points) @ $1.91

Same Game Multi: Raiders 1-12 ($3.00), Blake Austin Anytime Try Scorer ($2.45)

Looks like the NRL has saved the best ’till last.

The Storm were rattled last week by the Bunnies, but that wasn’t the only loss Melbourne suffered.

Cameron Smith fears he’s suffered an achilles tendon injury, and while we await the scans, it looks as though Melbourne will go without their star hooker this week.

On the back of their own loss, the Sharks also look to regroup following last weeks heartache against Manly in extra time.

Cronulla have been unlucky to lose in nail-biting fashion in back-to-back weeks, but overall, the Sharks haven’t played a terrible brand of footy.

Uncharacteristically, the Storm were beaten at their own game last week.

South Sydney played with a great deal of tempo and poise on attack, but defensively the Rabbitohs managed to force Melbourne into plenty of errors and penalties.

The star for the Rabbitohs was Damien Cook, and if the Sharks can find the same kind of production out of say, Valentine Holmes, Cronulla should win this at home.

This is the first real setback Melbourne has faced all season, and without one of their biggest leaders on the field, suddenly the Storm look vulnerable.

If you rewind back to Round 4 when these teams last met, you should expect Sunday’s game to be relatively low scoring. The Sharks won 14-4 that day, in large part thanks to Chad Townsend’s boot.

This game will come down to who can make the most of their opportunities, and since the Sharks are in danger of falling out of the eight, Cronulla should lap up this opportunity.

Tip: Back Cronulla Sharks To Win @ $2.70

Same Game Multi: Sharks To Win, Valentine Holmes To Score 2 Or More Tries ($10.00)

2017

The 2017 NRL Finals are now just over a month away and there are a number of key games in the battle for top four positions.

The North Queensland Cowboys will lose touch with the top four if they fail to beat the Melbourne Storm on Friday night, while the Sydney Roosters can keep the pressure on the Melbourne Storm with a win over the Manly Sea Eagles.

There is betting interest in every game this weekend and our complete 2017 NRL Round 22 tips can be found below.

The Parramatta Eels stamped themselves as genuine contenders with their big win over the Brisbane Broncos and they will go into this clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs as clear favourites.

The Eels have now won seven of their past eight games and they really have been the team that has flown under the radar in the second half of the season.

Parramatta have won nine of their past 11 games as favourites for a clear profit, while they are 6-1-4 against the line in this scenario.

Canterbury produced another flat performance against the Penrith Panthers and speculations continues to build that Des Hasler will be sacked at the end of the season.

The Bulldogs gave the Eels a scare when they met for the first time this season a month ago, but there is no doubt that the Bulldogs have gone backwards in recent weeks.

They have won only five of their past 18 games as underdogs and they are a middling 9-9 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that Parramatta really should be able to win comfortably and the line of 7.5 points will not be enough.

Back Parramatta to cover the line (-7.5 Points)

The St George Illawarra Dragons’ final hopes took a big hit when they went down to the Newcastle Knights last weekend, but they will still start this clash with the South Sydney Rabbitohs as clear favourites.

There really was nothing positive to say about the Dragons’ performance and they have really struggled for consistency in the second half of the season.

St George Illawarra have won seven of their past ten games as favourites, but they are only 3-7 against the line in this scenario.

South Sydney produced another uninspiring performance against the Canberra Raiders last weekend and there is no doubt that they are looking forward to the end of the season.

The Rabbitohs have won six of their past 15 games as underdogs for a small profit and they are 10-5 against the line in this situation.

There is not as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests and the Rabbitohs can cover the line with a 6.5 points start.

Back South Sydney To Cover The Line (+6.5 Points)

This is a genuine Friday Night Blockbuster between two of the best sides in the competition.

The Melbourne Storm could hardly have been more impressive when they beat the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend and they are the resounding premiership favourites for a reason.

Melbourne have won nine of their past ten games as away favourites for a big profit and they are an impressive 6-4 against the line in this scenario.

The right-side defence of the North Queensland Cowboys let them down badly against the Sydney Roosters last weekend and there is no doubt that will the focal point of the Storm’s attack.

North Queensland have lost their past four games against Melbourne and their overall record against the Storm is fairly poor.

The Cowboys have won their only games as home underdogs over the past 12 months, but this is a whole other challenge and it is tough to see them matching it with Melbourne without Johnathan Thurston in the side.

Melbourne should win this game comfortably and continue their path to the minor premiership.

Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)

The Newcastle Knights recorded a good win over the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and they have a chance to record back-to-back wins for the first time since the end of 2015.

Newcastle will still not go into this game as favourites, but they are sure to take a fair amount of confidence from what was their toughest performance of the season to date.

The Knights have now won three of their past 12 games as home underdogs for a very small profit, but they are still a poor 4-8 against the line in this scenario.

New Zealand have not been disgraced against the North Queensland Cowboys or the Cronulla Sharks in recent weeks, but there is no doubt that they lack an attacking spark without Shaun Johnson in the side.

The Warriors have lost five of their past 11 games as favourites and their record against the line as the punter’s elect is even worse.

Both these teams are tough to trust from a betting perspective and this is a game that I am more than happy to stay out of.

No Bet

The Brisbane Broncos suffered a surprise loss at the hands of the Parramatta Eels last weekend, but they are clear favourites to return to winning form on Saturday afternoon.

Brisbane have won the past six games played between these two sides and they have suffered back-to-back losses just twice over the past 12 months.

The Broncos have now won four of their past six games as away favourites, but they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

Gold Coast produced their worst performance of the season when they got flogged by the Wests Tigers and injuries really have taken their toll this season.

The Titans have won three of their past six games as home underdogs, but they are only 3-3 against the line in this situation and it is tough to have any faith in them off their most recent effort.

Brisbane should return to winning form in this clash and are deserving favourites, but there is no value at their current price.

No Bet

The Cronulla Sharks will go into this clash with the Canberra Raiders as clear favourites.

Cronulla made it two wins on the trot with a professional win over the New Zealand Warriors and they look to be a team that is finding their best form at the right end of the season.

The Sharks have been somewhat tough to trust as favourites this season – they have won six of their past 11 games as home favourites for a loss and they are a very poor 2-9 against the line in this scenario.

Canberra kept their faint finals hopes alive with a win over the South Sydney Rabbitohs and they need to keep winning to keep their finals dream alive.

The Raiders have won only two of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear loss, but they are an impressive 5-1 against the line in this scenario.

There isn’t as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Raiders can cover the line with a start of 5.5 points.

Back Canberra Raiders To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points)

This is one of the biggest games of the weekend and will be crucial to the top four hopes of both teams.

The Sydney Roosters have now won seven of their past eight games following their win over the North Queensland Cowboys and they will start this clash as narrow favourites.

Sydney have won six of their past seven games as away favourites for a profit and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

The Manly Sea Eagles beat the Sydney Roosters earlier this season, but the wheels have fallen off in a big way in recent weeks and they suffered heavy back-to-back losses at the hands of St George Illawarra and Melbourne.

Manly have won only one of their past six games as home underdogs and they are 2-4 against the line in this situation.

Sydney really do look to have the edge over Manly in this clash and the line of 2.5 points will not be enough.

Back Sydney Roosters To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)

The Penrith Panthers have got themselves back in finals contention and they are dominant favourites to continue their winning run.

Penrith made it four wins on the trot with a professional performance over the Bulldogs and they will take confidence from the fact that they flogged the Wests Tigers earlier this season.

The Panthers have won ten of their past 12 games as home favourites for a big profit and they are a particularly impressive 10-2 against the line in this scenario.

Wests returned to winning form with a quality win over the Gold Coast Titans, but the Panthers are sure to represent a much tougher test this weekend.

The Tigers have won five of their past 12 games as away underdogs for a big profit and they are 8-1-3 against the line in this situation.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

Round 22

We are now in the final month of the 2016 NRL season and their are a number of key games in the lead-up to the finals.

The round is highlighted by the pivotal fixture between the Cronulla Sharks and the Canberra Raiders, while there are also key games set to take place between the Parramatta Eels and Manly Sea Eagles as well as the St George Illawarra Dragons and the Brisbane Broncos.

The Brisbane Broncos have fallen in a hole since the start of the State Of Origin period and they have won just two of their past eight games, but they will still start this clash as clear favourites.

Brisbane leaked plenty of points again against the Sydney Roosters last weekend and their defense on both their fringes has proven to be a big concern for the struggling outfit.

The once reliable Broncos are now one of the most lacklustre betting outfits in the NRL and they have won just five of their past nine games as away favourites, while they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

The St George Illawarra Dragons have struggled without Josh Dugan and have now lost four games on the trot, but they did show signs of improvement against the Canterbury Bulldogs last weekend.

The Dragons have generally produced their best football for WIN Stadium this season and they have won all three of their games at the venue, while they are also 3-0 against the line.

There is clearly issues at the Broncos and I believe that the Dragons are capable of grinding out a tough victory over their rivals at some very juicy odds.

Recommended Bet: Back St George Illawarra Dragons To Win @ $3.50

The Manly Sea Eagles have found form in recent weeks and they are now back in the hunt for a finals berth after recording four straight victories.

Manly haven’t faced the toughest of competition during this period, but they have still been able to get the job done and they will start this clash with the Parramatta Eels as clear favourites.

The Sea Eagles have actually proven to be a better team away from home than at Brookvale Oval this season and they have won four out of their past five games as away favourites, but they are only 2-3 against the line in this scenario.

Off-field problems have caught up with the Parramatta Eels and they produced one of their most uninspiring performances of the season to date against the Wests Tigers.

The Eels have a strong record at Pirtek Stadium as underdogs and they have won five out of their past nine games in this scenario , but they have been a very tough team to trust from a betting perspective in recent weeks.

The market looks to have gotten this clash just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Canterbury returned to winning form last weekend and they are the shortest-priced favourites of the week.

The Bulldogs did not play at anywhere near their best against the St George Illawarra Dragons, but they were still able to get the job done and they have now won five out of their past six games.

Canterbury have proven to be a very safe betting play as away favourites this season and they have won six of their past seven games in this scenario, while they are 4-3 against the line.

It feels like an eternity since the Newcastle Knights won a game of football – it must feel like even longer for Nathan Brown – and it is tough to see them ending their losing streak this weekend.

The Knights have won just one of their past ten games as home underdogs, but they remain a credible 5-5 against the line and they are receiving a big start of 16 points.

The Bulldogs are not noted a team that put up a big score on their weaker rivals and this season they are 0-2 against the line when giving away a start of ten points or more, but the Knights are 2-5 when being given a start of 16 points or more.

This is another clash that I am keen to stay out of betting wise.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

This is arguably the highlight of the weekend and is sure to be an extremely intriguing affair.

The Cronulla Sharks had their winning streak ended when they played out a draw with the Gold Coast Titans on Monday night, but they will still go into this clash with the Canberra Raiders as clear favourites.

The Sharks continue to be one of the best betting teams in the entire competition and they have won ten out of their past 12 games as home favourites, while they are 6-6 against the line in this scenario.

Canberra moved into third position on the ladder with their dominant victory against the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Ricky Stuart-coached outfit have won seven out of their past eight games.

The Raiders have proven to be a profitable betting play as away underdogs and they have won three of their past six games in this scenario and are a most impressive 5-1 against the line.

I expect this to be a hotly-contested clash and I am very keen to back the Raiders with a start of 5.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Canberra Raiders To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points)

The Melbourne Storm have won 21 of their past 25 games against the South Sydney Rabbitohs and they are clear favourites to maintain that outstanding record this weekend.

The Storm moved to within one point of the Cronulla Sharks on top of the NRL ladder with their win over the North Queensland Cowboys last weekend and they continue to be a model of consistency this season.

Melbourne have won nine out of their past 11 games as home favourites for a tidy profit and they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario.

South Sydney’s season hit a new low with their truly disgraceful performance against Canberra last weekend and there is obviously something very wrong going on at the club.

The Rabbitohs are now right up there with the worst betting teams in the NRL and they have won just two of their past seven games as away underdogs, while they are 3-4 against the line in this situation.

Melbourne should be able to get the job done very comfortably, but the line of 18.5 points seem a touch excessive and the Storm have failed to cover in their two games this season where they have given away a start of more than 12 points.

I certainly wouldn’t be recommending a bet on South Sydney, but the data also suggests that the Storm will struggle to cover the 18.5 points.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

This is another very interesting clash between two teams that remain in finals contention.

The Gold Coast Titans were arguably unlucky not to take the two points from their clash with the Sharks, but they will still go into this clash with the New Zealand Warriors as favourites.

The Titans have proven to be very tough to beat in front of their home fans at Cbus Super Stadium and they are 3-1 as home favourites this season both in head to head and line betting.

The New Zealand Warriors played their third straight golden point clash in a row against the Penrith Panthers and thanks to some magic from Shaun Johnson they were able to get the job done.

That victory came on home soil in New Zealand and the Warriors have really struggled to fire away from home in 2016 – they have lost their past eight games as away underdogs and they are 3-5 against the line in this scenario.

I expect the Titans to build on their momentum with a victory over the Warriors and they are good value at their current price.

Recommended Bet: Back The Gold Coast Titans To Win @ $1.68

The North Queensland Cowboys lost to the Melbourne Storm last weekend, but they will likely be buoyed by the return of Johnathan Thurston this weekend.

The Cowboys have been able to put their full-strength outfit on the park just once in the past two months – when they beat the Canterbury Bulldogs 36-0 – but they have still got through the State Of Origin period in a reasonable position and are well-placed to finish in the top four.

In saying that, North Queensland have struggled somewhat as away favourites this season and they have won just five of their nine games in this scenario – although they do have the same record against the line.

Wests made it two wins on the trot with a professional performance against Parramatta last weekend, but they face a much tougher assignment against North Queensland this weekend.

It is no secret that the Tigers enjoy playing in front of their home fans at Leichhardt Oval and they have covered the line in both of their games at the venue this season, while they are 5-3 across the board as home underdogs this season.

The Tigers have impressed me in recent weeks and it really would not surprise me if they were able to give the Cowboys a scare this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back The Tigers To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)

The Sydney Roosters finally ended their losing streak with an impressive performance against the Brisbane Broncos last Thursday night, but they will still go into this clear as clear underdogs.

The Roosters have been one of the worst teams in the NRL from a betting perspective this season and they have won just two of their past seven games as away underdogs, but they have been a profitable 4-3 against the line as away underdogs.

The Penrith Panthers suffered a heart-breaking golden point defeat at the hands of the Warriors last weekend and they need to win this weekend to have any chance whatsoever of jumping back into the top eight.

The good news for the Panthers is that they are 8-4 on the back of a loss this season and they have won five of their past seven games as home favourites, but they are only 2-5 against the line in this scenario.

Penrith still have plenty to play for at this stage of the season and I expect them to bounce back with a win this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back The Penrith Panthers To Win @ $1.62