Five weeks to go, 15 teams still a mathematical chances of featuring in the 2024 NRL finals series.  

Accordingly, Round 23 features a string of crunch matches as the contenders, bolters, hopefuls and desperados jostle for position.  

With their Top 8 hopes all but up in smoke, South Sydney Rabbitohs host a ladder-leading Melbourne Storm team that is searching for redemption from last week’s upset loss.  

The Rabbitohs’ five-match mid-season winning streak has given way to three losses in their last four games.

Even though they were in the fight for a long time last Saturday night before going down 20-6 to Cronulla, they were not helped by the late withdrawal of their chief playmaker. 

Cody Walker (calf) is back for Souths in the No.7 after pulling out last week, while Michael Chee-Kam gets a run in the second-row for Jacob Host.

Jye Gray is a talent but the Rabbitohs are missing Latrell Mitchell’s influence at fullback.  

Melbourne’s seven-match winning streak ended with a shock 18-16 defeat at home to St George Illawarra – just its fourth loss of the season.

Harry Grant and Cam Munster were excellent, but the Storm struggled to unlock a fired-up Dragons defence.  

The minor premiership race is well and truly back ahead of next week’s showdown at Penrith and the Storm welcome Tui Kamikamica back, with Nelson Asofa-Solomona switching to second-row to replace Eli Katoa (knee).  

The Rabbitohs managed rare wins over the Storm in 2022 and 2023, but were pummelled 54-20 in Melbourne in Round 8 this year.  

Souths are 4-3 at Accor Stadium this season, but they feel like a team running out of steam amid an arduous, injury-hit, coach-sacking campaign.

Plenty riding on this for the Storm and they should get the job done with relative comfort.  

Tip: Back the Storm to Score Over 32.5 Points @ $1.87 

SGM: STORM BY 11-20 / OVER 50.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAHROME HUGHES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $59.59 

The red-hot Gold Coast Titans’ finals quest will really pick up steam if they can collect a home win over the water-treading Cronulla Sharks on Friday night.  

The Des Hasler regime is clicking, with the Titans surging to 11th courtesy of five wins from their last six games.  

In the past fortnight they’ve come from 14-0 down against the Dolphins and 12-0 down against the Broncos, holding both derby opponents scoreless in the second half.

But their 46-18 destruction of the Broncos – running in seven unanswered tries in the second stanza – was an incredible statement.  

Jayden Campbell and Kieran Foran are building an excellent combination and fullback Keano Kini rounds out a dynamic, pace-stacked back five, while a mobile pack is running their opponents of their feet. 

Klese Haas replaces the injured Beau Fermor in the back-row this week, with Keenan Palasia joining the bench.  

Cronulla held onto fourth spot with a pressure-relieving 20-6 win over depleted Souths last week – only the Sharks’ third win in nine games.

Centre Kayal Iro was a standout for a side that won’t have Nicho Hynes back for another three weeks.  

The Sharks have lost Braydon Trindall, which sees Blayke Brailey move to halfback and Cameron McInnes to hooker. Jack Williams is the new No.13.

Tom Hazelton (foot) is back on the bench at Braden Hamlin-Uele’s expense.  

The Titans snapped a nine-match losing streak against the Sharks in Round 18 with one of their grittier performances of the season, holding on for a 20-16 result in Coffs Harbour.  

It’s a win that will give Gold Coast plenty of confidence to achieve a fourth straight win at Cbus Super Stadium against a Cronulla side that has won just one of its last five away from the Shire.  

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (-5.5) @ $1.85 

SGM: TITANS WIN / UNDER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / KEANO KINI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DAVID FIFITA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRITON NIKORA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $153.84 

Parramatta’s position on the ladder takes the sting out of this derby, but the blue-and-golds’ performance last weekend suggests Penrith will have to do more than merely turn up to CommBank Stadium to collect another two points.  

The Eels inflicted a potentially season-ruining 30-20 loss on the Warriors in Auckland, powering to a 26-point lead with Clint Gutherson, Blaize Talagi and Daejarn Asi shining on attack as they scored more than 28 points for just the second time in 2024.  

Defensively, the Eels conceded their least amount of points since Round 6 and leaked only one try in the first 65 minutes as they snapped a six-match losing streak.  

The Panthers have won four straight and are now just one win behind the front-running Storm, but after a 46-10 canter on the road against the Dragons they had to work hard for it at home in a 22-14 win over the Knights.  

Nathan Cleary again stood tall, producing a superb solo try to break a 14-all deadlock inside the last 15 minutes. 

Daine Laurie returns at fullback for the premiers in their only change.  

The Eels have won four of their last seven against the Panthers – whose wins include two victories during the 2022 finals – while they were far from disgraced in a 26-18 loss at Penrith in Round 2.  

Parramatta have won the clubs’ last three encounters at CommBank Stadium, where the Eels have a 4-5 record in 2024.

Penrith is unlikely to sink to a fourth straight loss there, but with a couple of top-liners still missing and the hosts coming in with renewed confidence, the line looks way too big.  

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (+16.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: PANTHERS BY 6-10 / UNDER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / IZACK TAGO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CLINT GUTHERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $110.90 

Canberra is nearing must-win territory but playing good footy, while Manly come off the bye in a good position – but a loss would put the acid on Anthony Seibold’s side.  

The Raiders are two points outside the Top 8 with a poor for-and-against.

After back-to-back wins over the Warriors and Souths at home, the Green Machine were gallant in the face of the electric Belmore atmosphere last Sunday, ultimately going down 22-18 to the Bulldogs.  

It was the sort of gritty effort Ricky Stuart needs to unlock for the rest of the season rather than an intermittent basis.  

Ethan Strange is back for the Raiders at five-eighth, with Adam Cook reverting to the bench and Danny Levi dropping out, Ata Mariota comes onto the bench for the injured Zac Hosking.  

The seventh-placed Sea Eagles went into the bye on the back of three strong wins and a spirited 34-30 loss to the Roosters after trailing 22-0.  

Brilliant rookie Lehi Hopoate returns on the wing for Manly, which sees Tommy Talau go to centre and Ben Trbojevic to the bench, while Lachlan Croker and Haumole Olakau’atu also return.

The teams have split their last six games, last season the Sea Eagles powered to a 42-14 win at GIO Stadium, but in Round 9 this year the injury-hit Raiders staged an unbelievable comeback to win 26-24 at Brookvale.

A Sea Eagles side that has won just one of its last five away from 4 Pines Park needs to extract every ounce of leadership from dual trumps Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic if they are to cement their premiership dark horse status.  

The Raiders’ home form has been a lottery in 2024 but they are trending in the right direction and provide decent underdog value in this dogfight. 

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / XAVIER SAVAGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LEHI HOPOATE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $30.04 

Brisbane Broncos are all but done for 2024, but a victory here at least keeps the mathematical possibility of the playoffs alive.

North Queensland Cowboys, meanwhile, can take a massive step towards a finals return by regaining the ascendancy in this fierce derby rivaly.  

The Cowboys are sixth and only a win shy of the top four, they may not have the feel of a team that has won eight of its last 10, but they are nevertheless getting the results.  

Last Thursday’s 48-30 defeat of a 12-man Tigers outfit left plenty of defensive question marks hovering over Todd Payten’s side, however.

On the plus side, Murray Taulagi blazed in for a hat-trick, and Scott Drinkwater scored two tries and set up another.  

North Queensland’s Test prop Reuben Cotter is back from concussion protocols, replacing Jake Granville (pec).  

The shellshocked Broncos have lost eight of their last nine, following up a jarring 41-16 loss to the Bulldogs with an astonishing 46-18 defeat to the Titans after leading 18-10 at halftime.

The second-half drop-off in both was nothing short of alarming an attitude appears to have gone out the window. 

Meanwhile, Payne Haas is gone for the season and Ezra Mam also suffered an injury setback on the Gold Coast.  

Josh Rogers comes in at five-eighth and Xavier Willison at prop, Josiah Karapani has usurped Corey Oates on the wing and Tristan Sailor joins the interchange.  

The Broncos have won the last three derbies by 12 points or more, including a 38-12 Suncorp Stadium beatdown in Round 4.

But they are a shadow of the side that made the grand final 10 months ago and started this season promisingly enough.  

The jury is out on the Cowboys but they should be able to put away the flagging visitors for a third straight win in Townsville.  

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Score Over 28.5 Points @ $1.90 

SGM: COWBOYS/COWBOYS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / KYLE FELDT FIRST TRYSCORER / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $42.11 

The big improvers of 2024 have both put themselves in the box seat for a long-awaited finals return – setting up a massive showdown at Kogarah on Saturday.  

Canterbury and St George Illawarra met in Round 12, with the Bulldogs powering to a 44-12 win at Accor Stadium despite trailing at halftime.  

It was a result typical of the Dragons’ inconsistency this season that also makes them a dangerous prospect on any given week.

The Saints bounced back from a 46-10 loss to Penrith with a stunning 18-16 upset of the Storm at AAMI Park, with Ben Hunt, Jaydn Su’A and Tyrell Sloan at the forefront.  

Now in eighth spot, the flipside is the Dragons have only won back-to-back games twice this season – and both of those mini-streaks included matches against Wests Tigers.  

The Bulldogs are the talk of the NRL, surged to the edge of the top four with seven wins from their last nine games.

They followed up a blistering 41-16 win over the Broncos in Brisbane with a tense 22-18 victory over the Raiders at a packed Belmore Sports Ground.  

Stephen Crichton’s class and leadership came to the fore against Canberra, while Josh Addo-Carr also bagged a double in his return from a lengthy absence in what is a stacked three-quarter-line contingent.  

This is the perfect opportunity for both teams to announce themselves as the real deal, the Dragons have won two of three at Kogarah this year, but the $1.65 favourite Bulldogs have belatedly proved they can win away from Accor Stadium on a regular basis and have the edge consistency-wise.  

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Win by 1-12 @ $3.00 

SGM: BULLDOGS WIN / UNDER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / TYRELL SLOAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $25.51 

The Dolphins and Warriors both head into this Sunday afternoon clash at Suncorp Stadium in a tight spot.  

Wayne Bennett’s under-strength Dolphins finally fell out of the Top 8 with their seventh loss in nine games – albeit a spirited 40-34 defeat to the hotshot Roosters in Perth.

Centres Jake Averillo and Herbie Farnworth were standouts, though the pack struggled to make inroads. 

The Dolphins are boosted by Tevita Pangai Jr and Kodi Nikorima returning. But with matches against Canterbury and Melbourne in the next fortnight, this is an absolute must win.  

The Warriors butchered their own gift-wrapped, must-win opportunity at home last Friday, crashing to a 30-20 loss to second-last Parramatta in a horrific performance.

They trailed 30-4 courtesy of some abysmal defence and listless attack, only clicking into gear when it was far too late.  

Last year’s darlings must now win all four games and rely on a host of other results going their way.

But Shaun Johnson’s retirement bombshell could be the trigger to a turnaround for a team that has won two of its last seven.  

The Warriors’ only change sees Roger Tuivasa-Sheck return to centre for the axed Moala Graham-Taufa and Ed Kosi getting another shot on the wing.  

The Warriors lead the head-to-head 2-1, chalking up 30-8 and 24-20 wins at Mt Smart either side of the Dolphins’ 34-10 victory at Suncorp against a second-string visiting team. The Warriors’ win in Round 12 this year saw them come back from 10 points down a stack of unavailable players.  

Always well-supported in Brisbane, the SJ factor will further negate the Dolphins’ home-ground advantage.

Tevita Pangai Jr needs a big game to help combat a Warriors pack that routinely wins the run metres count.  

It’s difficult to justify the Dolphins giving away an eight-point start when they’ve conceded 21-plus points in nine straight games.  

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+8) @ $1.90 

SGM: ALTERNATE HANDICAP WARRIORS +5.5 / WARRIORS OVER 20.5 POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ALI LEIATAUA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAKE AVERILLO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $23.82 

Another team on a losing streak and fighting to stay in the finals race, Newcastle Knights won’t get a better opportunity to do just that than hosting triple wooden spooners-in-waiting Wests Tigers.  

The Knights have lost six of their last eight, including their last three straight. But after heavy defeats to Manly and Brisbane before the Round 21 bye, they were brave in a 22-14 loss at Penrith.  

The Knights’ only change sees Brodie Jones coming onto the bench for Thomas Cant; Jacob Saifiti was ruled out in the warm-up last week and remains out. Bradman Best remains sidelined.  

The Tigers are on a six-match losing streak – conceding 40-plus points in all but one of those defeats – but showed some resolve in last week’s 48-30 loss to the Cowboys after Justin Olam’s send-off early in the second half, Jahream Bula and Samuela Fainu both finished with two tries.  

Adam Doueihi returns in the centres for the suspended and injured Olam, while Aidan Sezer is back in the halves and Fonua Pole returns on the bench. Latu Fainu is out with concussion.  

The Knights are on a five-match winning streak against the Tigers, including a hard-earned 20-14 result in Tamworth in Round 10.  

The Tigers’ leaky defence showed allow the likes of Kalyn Ponga a long-awaited opportunity to unleash their attack wares.

It’s unlikely to be pretty, but expect the Knights – who are four points adrift of the Top 8 – to get it done convincingly enough to stay alive.  

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (-10.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / KNIGHTS BY 11-20 / GREG MARZHEW TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / DYLAN LUCAS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SOLOMON FAATAAPE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $103.91 

2023

We’re getting down to the nitty gritty of the 2023 NRL regular season – and Round 23 is brimming with delectable encounters.

There’s three fixtures between Top 8 rivals, while each of the other five matches contains at least one team that needs a win to keep their tenuous NRL finals hopes alive.

Sydney Roosters are already consigned to mathematical chances to make the finals, while Manly Sea Eagles are striving for a third straight win to stay in touch – or potentially finish the weekend in the Top 8.

The 8-11 Roosters briefly revived their hopes with a 36-18 win over the equally desperate Titans in Round 21, but they were thoroughly outplayed on both sides of the ball in a 32-10 defeat to the Broncos last Thursday – their eighth loss in 11 games and fifth by 13+.

The Sea Eagles have stayed alive by upsetting Cronulla 30-26 on the road – albeit after coming within a whisker of bottling a 30-0 lead – and holding off struggling St George Illawarra 24-18.

They enter this weekend in 10th, just one point outside the Top 8.

Siua Wong replaces Egan Butcher (head knock) and Drew Hutchison usurps Jake Turpin on the Roosters’ bench.

Raymond Tuaimalo Vaega replaces the injured Christian Tuipolotu on the wing, while Ben Trbojevic comes back into the Manly side at Sean Keppie’s expense.

The class of Daly Cherry-Evans is holding Manly together, while the side boasts an abundance of sheer speed out wide.

While they have largely struggled against in-form teams this season, the Roosters certainly don’t fit into that category.

The Sea Eagles edged the Roosters 18-16 at Brookvale just five weeks ago with Jake Trbojevic and Cherry-Evans leading the way while Joey Manu proved hard to handle in a beaten side.

It was just Manly’s third win in nine clashes with the Roosters.

The Roosters, plagued by attacking clunkiness, have lost their last three at home and look overvalued as a favourite in this clash between two below-average outfits.

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (+3.5) @ $1.98

SGM: MANLY WIN / UNDER 43.5 POINTS / JASON SAAB ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOSEPH MANU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $35.76

Coming off their second heavyweight upset in just over a month, Gold Coast Titans’ finals ship has likely already sailed.

But at the very least they are capable of proving a fly in the run home ointment for more big guns – including this Friday’s visitors, the on-fire Warriors.

The Titans stunned the Broncos back in Round 17 but lost their next four – three absoluter heartbreakers and an inexplicable first-half no-show in a 36-18 defeat to the Roosters – before rolling the streaking Cowboys 22-13 at home on Sunday.

Combining breath-taking offensive adventure with rare defensive steel, Gold Coast held its vaunted opponents scoreless in the second half, but their 8-11 record dictates they’ll likely need to win all five games to have a chance of squeaking into the playoffs.

The third-placed Warriors are coming off the bye, having won six of their last seven games.

Following landslide victories over Parramatta and Cronulla, they escaped with a 21-20 golden point win over Canberra in Round 21.

Aside from conceding two tries in the last three minutes to almost blow it, the Warriors produced a gritty performance that harked back to their early-season efforts, with Addin Fonua-Blake and field goal hero Shaun Johnson leading the way.

Gold Coast fullback AJ Brimson (ribs) has been cleared to play but Jojo Fifita is out, Aaron Schoupp joins the backline in the Titans’ only change.

The Warriors have named an unchanged 17, though Jazz Tevaga is a chance to play his first game since Round 8 after being named 18th man.

Despite a historically poor record in the rivalry, the Titans have won their last three against the Warriors – including wins at home (20-18) and in Auckland last season (27-26). The Warriors have won only one of their last five against the Titans on the Gold Coast.

But which incarnation of the Titans will turn up on this five-day turnaround? They’ve beaten three of the current top seven teams, yet have lost five games to teams current below them.

The Warriors have been a touch slow out of the blocks returning from their previous two byes and could be exposed by the Titans’ pace out wide, but they should be able to lean on their third-ranked defence to grind out a win as they set about locking in a top-four finish.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Win by 1-12 @ $2.95

SGM: TITANS +9.5 / UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LUKE METCALF ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $18.81

An out-and-out blockbuster for the second leg of Friday night footy – and still the most likely grand final match-up in many eyes.

Penrith are odds-on favourites to snare another minor premiership, holding onto top spot with 10 wins from their last 11 games.

After navigating an arduous Origin period, Nathan Cleary’s return from injury has inspired a 44-18 defeat of the Bulldogs and a 28-0 shutout of the Sharks.

The Panthers’ are firing in every department after a patchy start to their pursuit of third straight title, but their defence has rarely been anything shy of elite – they are conceding a miserly 12.42 points per game.

This week Zac Hosking has been named in the centres for the suspended Tyrone Peachey, but Izack Tago is in the reserves and could be a late inclusion. Jaeman Salmon joins the Penrith bench.

Tago was the star of the show as the Panthers overcome an early double-digit deficit to overwhelm the Storm 34-16 in Melbourne five weeks ago – their fourth win in six encounters between the clubs since the Storm’s ambush in the 2020 grand final.

It’s been an up-and-down run since for the fourth-placed Storm, throwing away another 12-0 lead in Newcastle in Round 21 in between convincing victories over the Roosters (30-16) and Eels (46-16).

Last week’s win was Melbourne at its best., after withstanding an early Parramatta assault, the Storm piled on eight tries with Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant in untouchable form.

Nelson Asofa-Solomona is a huge in for Melbourne, which bumps Tyran Wishart out of the 17.

With 34 wins from their last 37 matches at Penrith, it’s hard to back against the Panthers.

The 9.5-point line is a little hefty, but frankly the Storm have rarely looked on the Panthers’ level in 2023 when faced with top-shelf opposition.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Win and Over 39.5 Points @ $2.50

SGM: PANTHERS 1-12 / PANTHERS OVER 23.5 POINTS / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $10.40

A barnburner of a Queensland derby awaits in Townsville on Saturday, with the Cowboys aiming to bounce back from a streak-ending defeat and the Broncos looking to continue their roll towards a top-two finish.

The Cowboys looked unstoppable on their six-match winning streak and last Sunday’s loss on the Gold Coast was widely unexpectedly, held scoreless in the second half of a 22-13 defeat as the Titans did a superb job of shutting down dangermen Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden.

The shock result leaves North Queensland in eighth amid a very tight logjam, where another loss is likely to see them finish the weekend in 11th.

Griffin Neame and Heilum Luki are back for the Cowboys, giving the bench a dynamic look.

But Valentine Holmes’ four-match ban is severe blow to their late-season ambitions; impressive rookie Kyle Laybutt is set to fill the breach in the centres.

Hellbent on avoiding their late-season fadeout of 2022, the second-placed Broncos have won four straight in convincing style.

They came from behind to overwhelm Souths 36-20 in Round 21 and never looked in trouble during a 32-10 defeat of the Roosters last Thursday.

Reece Walsh and Ezra Mam provided the flash, but keeping their tryline intact for the first 65 minutes against the Roosters hinted at a developing defensive resolve – the last ingredient in the Broncos’ increasingly compelling premiership bid.

Jesse Arthars (suspension) and Brendan Piakura (illness) return for the Broncos, with Deine Mariner and Xavier Willison dropping out.

The Broncos made an early-season statement with a 28-16 defeat of the Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium. But the Cowboys have won 10 of the teams’ last 14 clashes in Townsville, including a 40-26 result in 2022.

The Cowboys are 8-2 at home this season, while the Broncos are 7-1 outside Brisbane in 2023.

Holmes’ absence is big but this still shapes as a flip of the coin in Townsville. Expect a stirring response from the chastened hosts with their season very much in the balance.

Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less Than 10.5 Points @ $1.90

SGM: COWBOYS +4 / OVER 43.5 POINTS / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $18.24

An opportunity to stay right in the finals hunt slipped through the Dolphins’ fingers last Sunday – and now to remain a mathematical chance of a debut-season Top 8 berth, they must upset a surging Newcastle outfit hunting its fifth straight win in the first match of a Perth double-header.

The 8-11 Dolphins have won only one of their last seven – a golden point eclipse over an Origin-depleted Titans side – and suffered a gut-wrenching 23-22 loss to the Bulldogs in Bundaberg last weekend, fighting back late but going down after a missed last-minute conversion.

Kodi Nikorima shifts around the team sheet yet again, replacing the injured Euan Aitken at centre with Anthony Milford starting in the No.6 following his strong two-try showing off the bench against the Bulldogs. Isaiya Katoa comes onto the Dolphins’ bench.

Written off a month ago, the ninth-placed Knights now shape as a likely finalist courtesy of their semi-soft run home.

Their revival has gathered genuine credibility over the past fortnight, fighting back to stun Melbourne 26-18 at home and dominating Canberra on the road from the outset in a 28-6 beatdown.

Kalyn Ponga is in blistering form in a red-hot back five and the Knights appear a tight, cohesive unit suddenly, conceding just 42 points in their last four outings.

The Dolphins ran down the Knights to win 36-20 in Newcastle in Round 3, but on recent form the Knights – with a win virtually guaranteeing they’ll finish the round in the Top 8 – should have little trouble extinguishing the newcomers’ flame.

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (-9.5) @ $1.90

SGM: KNIGHTS OVER 28.5 POINTS / KALYN PONGA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LACHLAN FITZGIBBON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $12.05

Arguably the most pivotal showdown of the round. Souths are searching for back-to-back wins for the first time since Round 11.

Cronulla are desperate to halt a three-match skid, both teams are on 26 points in a share of sixth spot.

After losing six of their previous eight, the Rabbitohs welcomed Latrell Mitchell back from a 10-week layoff with an unexpectedly hard-fought 32-18 win over Wests Tigers in Tamworth. The heavyweights led by only two points with 15 minutes to go.

Thomas Burgess and Michael Chee Kam come into the starting pack for Hame Sele and Jacob Host, with impressive rookie Tallis Duncan getting another run from the bench.

The Sharks’ horror slide – losing to the Warriors (44-12), Manly (30-26) and Penrith (28-0) – has now been compounded by injuries to key men.

Dale Finucane and Teig Wilton are out for the year, while Will Kennedy won’t play until the finals…if the Sharks in fact make it that far.

Connor Tracey will start at fullback with Kennedy hamstrung, while Ronaldo Mulitalo returns from a jaw injury on the wing. Jesse Colqhoun is back from suspension at Oregon Kaufusi’s expense.

Souths have won four of their last five against Cronulla, including a 38-12 semi-final thrashing last season and a 27-18 result against a Hynes-less Sharks outfit in Round 1 this year.

As it did last year, Mitchell’s return from injury should ignite Souths’ return to title-contending form sooner rather than later.

The Sharks showed plenty of guts against dominant Penrith but errors and listless attack painted the picture of a team down on confidence and going nowhere fast.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Win by 11-20 @ $3.35

SGM: RABBITOHS WIN / TAANE MILNE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MICHAEL CHEE KAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SIONE KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $32.21

Parramatta face a must-win clash with also-ran St George Illawarra on Sunday afternoon following a dismal July.

The Eels have lost three of their last four, convincingly beaten by the Warriors, Cowboys and Storm, and only recording a nervy one-point win over the Titans.

A solid start belied an eventual 46-16 loss in Melbourne last Friday in which the absence of suspended duo Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Maika Sivo was palpable – but they do get a couple of key troops back this week.

Dylan Brown returns from an NRL-imposed ban for an off-field indiscretion with Daejarn Asi’s eight-game run in the halves coming to an end.

Waqa Blake has been axed with Isaac Lumelume named on the wing. Wiremu Greig returns from injury on the interchange.

With little to play for and chastened by a dreadful campaign on and off the field, the Dragons have shown a bit of spirit in recent weeks, pushing Canberra and Manly either side of a win over Wests Tigers to stave off wooden spoon danger.

All three matches were at WIN Stadium, however, and the Saints are still chasing their first win on the road for 2023.

Parramatta has won 10 of its last 13 against St George Illawarra, including a 48-14 mauling at CommBank Stadium in the teams’ sole 2022 clash.

Brown’s return provides a much-needed extra spark – Mitch Moses and Clint Gutherson have been carrying the can for the Eels’ attack – and the urgency of the 11th-placed outfit’s situation should be enough to ensure a significantly better team gets the job done at home.

But the Dragons nevertheless look well over the odds as by far the biggest underdogs of the round.

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+15.5) @ $1.90

SGM: EELS BY 7-12 / CLINT GUTHERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TYRELL SLOAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $30.52

Canberra won’t get a better opportunity to rectify their suddenly wayward late-season campaign, welcoming last-placed Wests Tigers to the capital.

The fifth-placed Raiders are coming off consecutive losses for the first time since Round 5, edged in golden point by the Warriors in Auckland after a gutsy late fight-back before crashing to an abominable 28-6 home loss to Newcastle last Saturday.

It was the Green Machine’s third loss by 22-plus points from their last four matches at GIO Stadium. With some tough games to come, this looms as a must-win proposition.

Jarrod Croker is out injured, so Sebastian Kris goes to centre, Jordan Rapana to fullback and Nick Cotric returns on the wing. Adrian Trevilyan bumps Tom Starling off the bench.

Wests Tigers are marking time until the end of the season and a second straight wooden spoon, losing their last eight.

But they stood up to be counted in a 32-18 loss to Souths last week, fighting back to 20-18 inside the final quarter.

Stefano Utoikamanu and Shawn Blore will miss the game due to head knocks, while Justin Matamua, Jake Simpkin and Asu Kepoa come into a new-look bench.

The Raiders got out of jail against the Tigers at Campbelltown in Round 14, blowing an 18-0 lead before squeaking in 20-19 via a late penalty goal. It was the Raiders’ 10th win from 11 games against the Tigers.

A depleted pack spells bad news for the Tigers up against a big, dynamic Raiders engine-room, making it even harder for the NRL’s weakest offence to produce points.

The Raiders have not won a game by more than 10 points in 2023 but if it’s going to happen, this is the week for it.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-11.5) @ $1.90

SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 46.5 POINTS / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SEBASTIAN KRIS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DAVID NOFOALUMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $34.72

2022

NRL Round 23 gets underway with a grand final rematch minus some of the 2021 decider’s most influential performers, while Brisbane and Melbourne square off on Friday in the only other Top 8 showdown this weekend.

But there’s plenty of interest throughout the round as North Queensland and Parramatta strive to get back in the winner’s circle against also-ran opposition, while Sydney Roosters and Canberra can’t afford to blink as the club’s battle for eighth spot continues with assignments against unfancied sides.

South Sydney will look to continue its roll with a victory over a depleted Penrith line-up in the season’s second edition of the grand final rematch.

The Rabbitohs have won six of seven since Latrell Mitchell’s campaign-defining return, backing up a 48-10 beatdown of the Warriors with 26-0 shutout of premiership hopefuls Parramatta last Friday. The fullback was at his destructive best against the Eels, making three line-breaks, nine tackle-breaks and recording his ninth try-assist in six games.

Souths welcome back reliable centre Campbell Graham from a seven-week layoff, which sees Jaxson Paulo move to the wing and Izaac Thompson drop out. A late omission last week, Lachlan Ilias returns at halfback, while Daniel Suluka-Fifita comes straight back into the front-row.

The Panthers – sans Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai for the second week – were unable to continue the form that saw them down the Raiders in Round 21, crashing 16-0 to the Storm. But influential fullback Dylan Edwards was a big loss ahead of the latter assignment, as was suspended James Fisher-Harris prolific rookie winger Taylan May.

Edwards has been named to return in the No.1 but May is in the reserves and JFH has another week to serve.

The Panthers have won seven of their last eight against the Rabbitohs and were convincing in the Round 4 grand final rematch, carving out a 26-12 victory at home. Three of the teams’ last four clashes at Homebush were decided by four points or less.

Six points clear of the field still, the defending champs would have to get pumped in their last three games to lose the minor premiership – so the pressure is off. But Ivan Cleary will be wary of losing momentum at this time of the year and the Panthers’ simplified play with a back-up halves pairing will struggle to trouble the NRL’s better sides.

Souths have averaged 32 points in their last seven games and will keyed up here as they continue a push for the Top 4.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: RABBITOHS OVER 21.5 POINTS / RABBITOHS/RABBITOHS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / ALEX JOHNSTON FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD TRY SCORER @ $6.31

North Queensland resumes its quest for a top-two finish and a home final in week one while continuing to grapple with tragedy. The Cowboys went down 32-18 to the Roosters just two days after the shattering news of former coach Paul Green’s death, with their pack struggling to match up to a dominant Tricolours unit.

Winger Kyle Feldt – who boasts 13 tries in 10 career games against the Warriors – is back for the Cowboys, with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow slipping back to the bench as they look to bounce back from just their third defeat in 16 games.

The Warriors, meanwhile, are coming off their best win of 2022 – which came just six days after a shockingly limp display in a 48-10 loss to Souths.

The fast-finishing Warriors powered to a 42-18 victory over the in-form Bulldogs, the club’s biggest win since 2020 and its most points in a game since 2016. Shaun Johnson was in vintage touch on the back of the team’s best performance yardage-wise (a glaring area of weakness) this season.

The Warriors have won five of the teams’ last seven encounters, including a golden point victory sealed by a Johnson field goal after they clawed back from 12 points down at Redcliffe in Round 5. The teams’ last eight straight clashes were decided by 1-12 margins. The Cowboys have won four of the last five in Townsville.

The unchanged Warriors will take plenty of confidence from last week’s display in front of a packed house at Mt Smart, but they are just 1-11 away from Redcliffe and Auckland in 2022 and have overwhelmingly struggled to compete with the NRL’s pacesetters for the past two seasons.

The Cowboys look well under the odds as $1.11 favourites, though, and the visitors are capable of keeping this one relatively close.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+19.5 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: COWBOYS BY 11-20 / UNDER 52.5 POINTS / ED KOSI ANYTIME TRY SCORER / KYLE FELDT ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $32.28

A huge Friday night battle in the context of the scramble for finals seedings, with the fourth-placed Melbourne Storm just two points in front of the sixth-placed Brisbane Broncos. But the home side has a big hoodoo to overcome here.

The Storm are on an 11-match winning streak against the Broncos and have lost just four of the last 32 clashes between the fierce rivals. The smallest margin in the teams’ last 10 encounters is 10 points, though the Broncos were spirited in a Reynolds-less 32-20 loss at AAMI Park in Round 15.

Meanwhile, the Broncos haven’t beaten the Storm at home since 2009.

The Broncos halted a worrying two-game slide – losing to the Tigers and Roosters by 13-plus – by accounting for the battling Knights 28-10. Selwyn Cobbo bagged a hat-trick as his combination with Adam Reynolds reignited, while Ezra Mam stood out once again.

The Storm have won three on the trot since their four-game losing streak, making an impressive statement with a 16-0 shutout of the under-strength Panthers. Cameron Munster’s switch to fullback was the catalyst for Melbourne’s win for the second week in a row.

With Jahrome Hughes returning, Cooper Johns drops out of the 22 altogether. Nick Meaney is named at fullback with Munster in the No.6. Marion Seve (hamstring) is out, bringing Young Tonumaipea into the team at centre. The Broncos are unchanged.

This should be a belter with both sides desperate for the two points but coming off fairly scratchy recent form overall. But the Storm’s psychological edge in this rivalry should get them over the line at Suncorp Stadium.

Tip: Back the Storm to Win by 1-12 @ $2.85

SGM: STORM WIN / OVER 44 POINTS / XAVIER COATES ANYTIME TRY SCORER / COREY OATES ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $8.39

It’s crunch time for the inscrutable Parramatta Eels, who slipped to seventh after following up big wins over Penrith and Manly with a passive 26-0 defeat to South Sydney.

The Eels will also still be smarting from a 34-4 demolition in Round 14 at the hands of a Bulldogs side who at that stage had won just two games. Josh Addo-Carr scored a hat-trick, Jake Averillo picked up a double from fullback and the blue-and-whites’ enthusiasm blew an insipid Parramatta off the park.

The Bulldogs, though, are regrouping from their heaviest loss since Mick Potter took the coaching reins and turning their season around. Fighting back to level the scores at 18-all against the Warriors in Auckland, the Bulldogs were overrun 42-18 by a team that hadn’t scored more than 40 points in six years.

Mitchell Moses makes a much-needed return for the Eels at the expense of Jakob Arthur. The Bulldogs are unchanged, though Luke Thompson and Tevita Pangai Jr are lurking in the reserves contingent this week.

Moses was awful in the June loss to the Dogs and should be primed for a big game, while their engine-room has a point to prove after being embarrassed by an unheralded Canterbury engine-room.

Despite their maddening inconsistency, the Eels are yet to lose back-to-back in 2022. Whether that’s enough to load up on them as a $1.38 favourite is another story. Give me the over in the total market here with stacks of strikepower on display in both line-ups combined with their variable approach to defence.

Tip: Back Over 47.5 Points Total @ $1.90

SGM: PARRAMATTA BY 1-12 / BULLDOGS OVER 18.5 POINTS / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRY SCORER / SHAUN LANE ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $41.09

Manly’s season has disintegrated in recent weeks, losing four straight to fade out of the finals picture barring a mathematical miracle. Last Sunday’s 44-24 lost to last-placed Gold Coast was inexcusable for a team fighting to stay alive and a worrying sign only a couple of weeks after the rainbow jersey furore.

Compounding the Sea Eagles’ woes, Jake Trbojevic and Jason Saab have been ruled out for the rest of the year. Tolutau Koula shifts to the wing with Morgan Harper returning at centre. Dylan Walker will start at lock and Ethan Bullemor comes onto the Manly bench.

Third-placed Cronulla is flying, winning eight of its last nine matches. Somewhat unconvincing in disposing of St George Illawarra 24-18 in Round 21, the Sharks eased to a 36-12 win over Wests Tigers on the back of a four-tries-to-one first half.

Front-row giants Royce Hunt and Braden Hamlin-Uele had two line-breaks apiece and Nicho Hynes ran for 223 metres from halfback – despite not having a line-break.

Cronulla has won two of its last three against Manly after winning just two of the previous 19 clashes between beachside rivals. Siosifa Talakai’s first-half masterclass – giving Harper an absolute bath – spearheaded a 34-22 cruise in the Shire in Round 7.

Fortunately for Manly (and Harper), Talakai is currently sidelined. Toby Rudolf is also out for a month, but Andrew Fifita and Aiden Tolman are back on the bench, while Connor Tracey and Matt Moylan are key backline ins.

The Sea Eagles look to be a (potentially disharmonious) team going through the motions. The Sharks have plenty to play for with the Top 4 race tightening up and they should run out comfortable winners.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Win by 13+ @ $1.98

SGM: SHARKS/SHARKS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / SHARKS OVER 30.5 POINTS / JESSE RAMIEN TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $15.17

Sydney Roosters haven’t been higher than eighth on the ladder since early-June, but with five wins in a row they are one of the form teams of the NRL and have some other heavyweights looking over their shoulders. They remain a Top 4 chance but must keep winning with ninth-placed Canberra only two points behind them.

The Roosters put away the Broncos (34-16) and Cowboys (32-18) at the SCG in the past fortnight, with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Matt Lodge dominating their opposites in the latter last Saturday. A powerhouse forward display was achieved without Lindsay Collins and Siosiua Taukeiaho, who both remain sidelined.

Wests Tigers have won only one of their last 10 and have slipped to last on the ladder with losses to Newcastle (14-10) and Cronulla (36-12) since their surprise Round 20 win in Brisbane.

The Tigers get Ken Maumalo back on the wing, with Starford To’a reverting to centre and James Roberts dropping out. Alex Seyfarth grabs a bench spot at Tyrone Peachey’s expense.

The Tigers have won just one of their last 16 against the Roosters, who have chalked up 10 victories by 22-plus margins in this rivalry during that period. They have not met since Round 2 last season, when the Tricolours romped to a 40-6 win on the back of a Brett Morris hat-trick and a James Tedesco double.

A maiden wooden spoon looms for the joint venture if they can’t jag a win from somewhere in the last three rounds – and it won’t come here. Expect the Roosters to put on a score.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Score Over 35.5 Points @ $1.87

SGM: ROOSTERS BY 31-40 / JOSEPH SUAALII TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / NAT BUTCHER ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $35.34

St George Illawarra is essentially out of the running for the finals after winning only one of their last six matches. But they showed a fair bit of fight – albeit largely on the back of Ben Hunt’s class – in tight road losses to Cronulla (24-18) and Canberra (24-22) in the past fortnight.

Gold Coast snapped a harrowing 10-match losing streak and inched off the bottom of the table with a stirring 44-24 defeat of Manly at home last Sunday. Beau Fermor bagged a double, while AJ Brimson and David Fifita proved hard to handle.

The Dragons are unchanged this week, while the Titans welcome skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui back.

The Titans are on a three-match winning streak against the Dragons, culminating in a 20-16 golden point upset in Magic Round inspired by Jayden Campbell’s blistering return from injury. The Titans are 0-4 at WIN Stadium but have not faced the Saints there since 2012.

The Dragons are $1.55 favourites at home, winning their last four in Wollongong. The Titans have not won outside Queensland since Round 16 last year, but they can parlay last week’s momentum into giving it a real shake here.

Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less than 10.5 Points @ $1.98

SGM: TITANS +4.5 / OVER 48.5 POINTS / BEN HUNT ANYTIME TRY SCORER / DAVID FIFITA ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $23.52

The end of season 2022 cannot come soon enough for Newcastle. Brief respite came in Round 21 as the Knights edged the Tigers 14-10, but a 28-10 loss in Brisbane last Saturday was rapidly followed by the bathroom stall incident involved injured duo Kalyn Ponga and Kurt Mann.

Meanwhile, Bradman Best and Enari Tuala have been stood down for disciplinary reasons. Edrick Lee makes a timely return on the flank and Krystian Mapapalangi will debut at centre. David Klemmer is also back for the Knights.

Canberra remains in ninth, two points and a considerable for-and-against disadvantage adrift of the top half. But working in the Raiders’ favour is a soft: they should be able to account for the Knights, Sea Eagles and Tigers over the next three weeks.

Their 24-22 eclipse of the Dragons was nervier than it needed to be but an important result nonetheless given Ricky Stuart’s one-week suspension following the Round 21 loss to the Panthers.

Elite prop Joseph Tapine (rib) is also back on deck for the Raiders, while Nick Cotric returns from suspension on the wing. Ryan Sutton and Albert Hopoate are the players to miss out.

The Raiders escaped with a 20-18 victory over the Knights at home in Round 15, Hudson Young’s ballsy kick-and-chase try snatching it late after they had blown a 14-point lead. This is the teams’ first encounter in Newcastle since 2017, with the Raiders winning just three of their last 11 in the city.

Ricky’s Raiders have not been the most reliable proposition this season, but they have won nine of their last 13 and it’s hard to see them not winning comfortably with everything on the line against a dud team battling crises on multiple fronts.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: RAIDERS BY 13+ / OVER 44.5 POINTS / XAVIER SAVAGE ANYTIME TRY SCORER / SEBASTIAN KRIS ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $9.65

2021

The finals are once again in focus this weekend with several sides fighting to keep their season alive.

Things heat up nice and quickly on Thursday night with a 1^st v 7^th battle between the Storm and the Titans on the Gold Coast, followed by the marquee game of the round, the Panthers and the Rabbitohs, kicking off on Friday from Suncorp.

The Sharks and the Tigers shapes as an intriguing battle on Saturday between two sides looking to book a spot in the eight, while the Roosters are looking to lock up their top four spot on Sunday in Toowoomba against the Dragons.

With plenty left to play for, check out who we’re backing in our Round 23 NRL Preview here!

The Storm have their fingertips on the minor premiership as they look to make it 19 wins in a row on Thursday against the Titans.

Melbourne has also carved out a healthy six-game winning streak over the Gold Coast dating back to 2018, and it is no surprise to find the premiership favourites laying a healthy -20.5 points at the line this week.

Craig Bellamy’s side had its hands full against the Raiders last week in a rollercoaster second half, but like all great sides, the Storm managed to capitalize on some costly Canberra penalties to put the game to bed in the late stages.

The Titans, on the other hand, come into this game looking to bounce-back from a humbling loss to the Rabbitohs.

Three consecutive wins prior sees the Titans still inside the eight, but there’s no doubt this is another tough challenge against a Storm outfit that leads the league in all major scoring categories.

Gold Coast coach Justin Holbrook should feel good about the fact Phillip Sami is a chance to return this week, but the fact his side ranks fifth in points conceded is an obvious concern.

Given their recent history and the Titans’ questionable defence, backing the Storm to cover seems the only logical play.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-20.5 Points) @ $1.90

There’s still enough time left for the Raiders to make a late finals push, but nothing is a guarantee with one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league.

Canberra faces an enormous challenge this week against a Manly side eying off a top-four spot, followed by a trip to Mackay to face the Warriors and the Roosters in the final two rounds.

Head coach Ricky Stuart has to be encouraged by some aspects of last week’s 10-point loss to the Storm, but there’s no doubt he’ll be taking this week to address his sides ill discipline after allowing Melbourne to kick two late penalty goals.

For Manly, this game is just as important.

The Sea Eagles are only two games adrift from the fourth-placed Rabbitohs after handing the Eels a 56-10 hiding last week following their own loss to Melbourne a week earlier.

Manly already appears to be a serious player come finals time, and they won’t be short on motivation this week after losing to the Raiders back in Round 17.

The line has been set at -6 in favour of Manly, but it wouldn’t be surprising if it gets out even further once we know more about Tom Trbojevic’s status following last week’s knock to the jaw.

If Turbo plays, the Sea Eagles should continue their scoring blitz against a Raiders team that is still struggling to string together two consistent halves of football.

Tip: Back Manly to Cover the Line (-6 Points) @ $1.90

The battle for second is one of the most interesting races to watch as both the Panthers and Rabbitohs look to secure the double-chance come finals time.

Penrith currently occupies second on for and against, while the bookies also fancy the Panthers despite South Sydney’s growing 10-game winning streak.

The Rabbitohs have looked almost unstoppable over the last month, outscoring their last four opponents 186-54.

South Sydney has played like a well-oiled machine in recent weeks, and they are about to get even stronger with the likes of Dane Gagai and Alex Johnston potentially returning to the side.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are set to welcome Kurt Capewell back from suspension.

Penrith has held five of its last six opponents to under 20 points, so Capewell’s inclusion only serves to strengthen one of the best second rows in the league.

As far as betting goes, there is plenty on offer head-to-head, but the defensive form both teams have shown recently suggests the Under is the safest play.

These two sides did combine for a whopping 68 points when they met in May, but there’s a chance both coaches take a more conservative approach here with so much on the line.

Tip: Under 47.5 Total Points @ $1.90

The Tigers and Sharks both hold top-eight aspirations heading into Saturday’s game between 10^th and 13^th.

Tied on points, the Sharks surprisingly come into this game as the short-priced favourite despite the fact they’ve lost their last three games in disappointing fashion.

The Tigers, on the other hand, have kept their season alive with two straight wins over the Bulldogs and Cowboys, adding further intrigue to the battle going on at the fringe of the eight.

Wests have won only one game over Cronulla in their last five meetings, but this does feel like a more evenly matched contest than the current market suggests.

The Sharks were dealt a blow last week with Andrew Fifita suffering a serious throat injury, while they’ve also found points hard to come by recently.

Wests forced the Cowboys into 37 missed tackles last week as they got off to a fast start inside the opening 20 minutes.

If the Tigers can pick up where they left off, they’re a good bet to add to their strong 12-9 record at the line this season.

Tip: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Knights can further cement their spot inside the eight this week with a fourth consecutive win over wooden spoon favourites Canterbury.

Newcastle has surged into seventh with the likes of Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best back in the fold, and they should have no trouble disposing of the Dogs in similar fashion to their 32-16 win when they met back in March.

The Bulldogs played like they were up for a fight last week against the Warriors before failing to score a single point in the second half – a worrying sign after the Knights held Cronulla to a single penalty goal inside the final 40 minutes.

On the plus side, Canterbury is set to welcome Christian Crichton and Ofahiki Ogden back into the side, while the Knights are set to carry on without Daniel Saifiti for the near future.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the Dogs kept this game interesting in the early stages, but the Knights are tough to fade given how important this game is to their finals campaign.

For some added value, it’s worth noting 10 of the last 13 games between these two sides have gone Under the Total, so the double is probably the best bet.

Tip: Back the Knights to Win & Under 52.5 Total Points @ $2.50

A game against the struggling Cowboys couldn’t have come at a better time for Brad Arthur and the Eels.

Parramatta has slid all the way down to sixth on the ladder behind four consecutive losses as they continue to find points hard to come by.

The Eels have mustered no more than 12 points during that four-game span, but they should have no trouble beating up on a Cowboys team that ranks second in points against.

To their credit, the Cowboys did finish strongly in the loss to Wests last week, but it’s tough to get excited about their chances on Saturday with so many stars on the sideline.

The Eels handed North Queensland a 42-4 loss when they met last year, while they’ve also played to a 3-1 record as the home favourite against the Cowboys.

Combined with a 14-7 record at the line this year, this looks the perfect game for the Eels to get some of their mojo back.

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (-10.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Roosters will be hoping for a repeat of their Round 7 blowout over St George on Sunday following last week’s controversial win over the Broncos.

A late penalty goal helped Sydney back inside the top four, but head coach Trent Robinson will be calling for a much more thorough effort this week after his side gave up the lead inside the final 10 minutes.

The Dragons have had their finals hopes dashed thanks to a slew of a recent injuries, but they still stand a chance at making the eight if results go their way.

Unfortunately, the Saints not only have injuries to overcome, but also a three-year hoodoo against the Roosters that includes six consecutive losses.

There could be some reprieve ahead this week with Tariq Sims a chance at returning to the side, while the Roosters are set to regain Jared Waerea-Hargreaves.

As far as betting goes, the tri-colours can’t afford the same mistakes and penalties that have nearly cost them in recent weeks, but the fact they’ve covered the line in five of their last six games against St George as the away favourite is tough to ignore.

Following a serious wake-up call last week, the Roosters should respond against another inferior opponent.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-12.5) & the Roosters Over 29.5 Total Points @ $2.24

Three straight wins has the Warriors very much in finals contention, but they’ll need to bring their A-game this week against a Broncos team that has been playing some inspired footy.

Brisbane was unlucky to lose a thriller last Friday night against the Roosters on a controversial penalty decision, but Kevin Walters has to be pleased with the way his side has played against two genuine top-eight sides over the last fortnight.

The recent games between these two sides have been relatively close, so it’s no surprise to find almost even money on offer at time of publish.

Defensively, the Warriors have been very impressive holding their last three opponents to under 20 points, but it’s tough to read too much into wins over the Tigers, Sharks and Bulldogs.

The Broncos, however, seem to have found a spark on attack, and this game is certainly within their grasp if they can manage to find a share of the footy, unlike last week.

Better yet, Brisbane has played to a steady 5-4 record as the home underdog at the line this year, so there’s a bit to like about them with home-field advantage.

With very little separating the head-to-head price from the points spread, it’s worth taking the Broncos with a little insurance.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (+1.5 Points) @ $1.90

2019

The ladder remains a complete question mark with three rounds remaining in the home and away season, setting up what could be a decisive round of action as a handful of teams continue to vie for a spot inside the eight.

It’s another huge Friday night for the Broncos as they host the Rabbitohs from Suncorp. The Sharks also face a big test at home to the Warriors, followed by a crucial top-four battle on Sunday between the Raiders and Sea Eagles from Canberra.

After a successful set of Round 22 tips that saw us tip five winners, we’re confident we’ve found value in this week’s NRL Preview, so be sure to read on below.

Now tied on points with Manly and the Rabbitohs, a win this weekend for the Eels could see them move as high as fourth if results go their way.

Canterbury has nothing left to play for, but the Dogs will be looking to extend their winning streak to four this weekend.

Dean Pay’s side pulled off the biggest upset of Round 22 defeating the Rabbitohs by eight points. It’s been a promising end to the season for the Dogs, although they won’t hold particularly fond memories of their 36-16 loss to the Eels back in Round 2.

It’s no surprise to find the Eels heavily favoured this week at Bankwest Stadium. Parramatta has lost only two of its 10 games at home this year, while the Dogs are currently 4-6 on the road.

The most impressive part of the Eels’ recent four game winning streak has been their relentless attack. Parramatta’s forwards have been dominant during the second half of the season, while wingers Michael Jennings and Maika Sivo continue to torment opposing defences out wide.

With that in mind, the Dogs, who currently rank second in missed tackles, could be in for a long night. The Eels are 5-2 as the line favourite at home this season, and with their last six games against Canterbury also falling Under the Total at home, it’s worth backing a Same Game Multi.

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) and Under 39.5 Total Match Points @ $4.73

This is officially a do-or-die clash for the Panthers as they head north to face the down and out Cowboys.

Penrith’s 12-point loss to the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium last week leaves the Panthers sitting ninth on the ladder, but with the Knights, Tigers and Warriors also fighting for a place inside the top eight, Ivan Cleary’s side must ensure they win out from here.

The Cowboys are playing for nothing more than bragging rights as they lick their wounds following last week’s 42-6 blowout loss to the Knights in Newcastle.

North Queensland should survive the wooden spoon from here. But having won only three of their 10 games at home this season, it’s no surprise to find the Cowboys as the outsiders with three games remaining.

The Panthers were able to match the Broncos in the early goings last week, up until Brisbane ran away with the game in the second half. The Cowboys aren’t as dangerous on attack, but it’s worth noting Paul Green’s side does rank fifth in possession.

Fortunately, the Cowboys continue to struggle on attack – now ranking second-last in points scored. North Queensland has averaged just over 19-points per-game at home this season, compared to the Panthers, who are averaging 15 on the road.

Seven of the Panthers’ last seven away games have gone Under the Total, so back this one to be another low-scoring game.

Tip: Under 38.5 Total Match Points @ $1.88

The Rabbitohs were a punter’s worst nightmare last week falling by eight points to the Dogs – a loss that leaves South Sydney sitting just outside the top four.

Things aren’t about to get any easier this week as Wayne Bennett heads back to his old stomping ground. The former club legend made short work of Brisbane back in Round 8, but with their season still on the line, nothing will come easy against the Broncos away from home.

Brisbane held on for a much-needed victory over the Panthers last week, one inspired by Jamayne Isaako and Payne Haas. The Broncos made short work of Penrith’s sloppy defence, and also kept their own penalties and errors to a minimum.

Anthony Seibold will be hoping his side can extend their winning streak to three this week by dominating possession – much like the Bulldogs did last week against Souths.

As for the Rabbitohs, they’ll be hoping to put their horror 2-5 record on the back of a loss behind them. Souths failed to score a try against Canterbury, but if they can hit the front early against Brisbane, the Bunnies should be able to control momentum and improve on their strong 6-4 record away from home.

The Broncos find themselves as the underdog this week at home, a scenario they are 1-3 in against the Rabbitohs. Souths, meanwhile, are 14-7 as the favourite over the last calendar year.

It’s difficult to see the Bunnies winning by much, but after a dominant win back in Round 8 was headlined by Cody Walker’s pair of tries, it’s worth backing Souths to turn things around.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Win @ $1.80

There should be no shortage of entertainment on Saturday afternoon as both the Sharks and Warriors still look to secure their spot in the finals.

Cronulla is back in the eight for now, although it took the Sharks the full 80-minutes to dispose of the helpless Dragons last week.

As for the Warriors, the Kiwis find themselves slipping down the ladder following last week’s 36-point drubbing at the hands of the Roosters. That said, New Zealand is still within striking distance of the eight sitting just three points behind the ninth-place Panthers.

These two sides met only recently back in Wellington, and if Round 18’s game is anything to go by, we should be in for a real thriller on Saturday.
The Warriors held on for a 19-18 victory over the Sharks at home, snapping their previous four-game losing streak to Cronulla. Kodi Nikormima played the hero for the Kiwis, but unfortunately, New Zealand has some real work to do if they hope to earn their first win at Shark Park since 2015.

Cronulla has been installed as the heavy favourite this week at home, where they currently hold a convincing 7-3 record. Backing the Under at Shark Park has been profitable this year, while the Sharks’ 7-2 record as the home favourite also looks good value.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Win and Under 38.5 Total Match Points @ $2.75

Neither side is making a very compelling case as to why they belong in the finals, but if results go their way, the Knights or the Tigers could wind up back inside the eight.

Wests failed to show up for a fight at Brookvale losing by 20-points to Manly last week. The Tigers have now lost three of their last five games, but they’ll take plenty of confidence heading into Round 23 knowing they’ve won two straight over Newcastle.

The Knights pulled off a big win over the struggling Cowboys at home last week to keep their finals hopes alive. Newcastle dominated the scoring early as Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga both crossed the line twice, securing a much-needed victory that has also earned the Knights a spot as the favourite.

Neither coach will read too much into their Round 19 meeting, but the Knights will have revenge on their mind after falling 28-26 at home. The good news is Newcastle won the possession battle against the Tigers, while the loss of Robbie Farah also leaves the defence with one less star player to worry about.

The Knights have never opened as the away favourite against the Tigers, which makes this week’s price strong value. Wests are 1-2 as the home underdog over the last 12 months, and with their season fading quick due to injuries, it’s difficult to see the Tigers holding off Kalyn Ponga and company.

Tip: Back the Knights to Win @ $1.80

There might only be three games remaining, but that’s still enough time for the Roosters to catch up with the Storm on top of the ladder.

Sydney’s blowout 42-6 win over the Warriors last week leaves the Chooks looking dangerous with finals around the corner. Trent Robinson’s side now prepares for what should be a very comfortable victory over the Dragons on Saturday night, one that could also extend the gap between themselves and the third-place Raiders.

The Dragons failed to fire last week at Shark Park, going down to Cronulla 18-12. The end of the season can’t come quick enough for St. George, while the Dragons won’t hold particularly fond memories of their recent meetings with the Roosters.

Sydney has won four of its last five games against Paul McGregor’s Dragons, including a 20-10 win back in Round 7. Not surprisingly, the Roosters are firm favourites this week in the market as they now look to earn their sixth win on the trot.

St. George’s biggest problem this season has been a complete lack of the ball. The Dragons rank second-last in possession this year, which lends itself to ranking first in tackles made.

None of that bodes well against the Roosters, especially considering the Chooks are 3-1 as the away favourite against the Dragons.

You’ll have to get creative if you want to find some real value, but at their current price, the Roosters to win by 13+ looks an absolute steal.

Tip: Back the Roosters 13+ @ $1.90

Anything is possible, but it’s very difficult to see the Storm losing two straight games at home.

Last week’s shock loss to the Raiders leaves the ladder leaders looking a little vulnerable heading into the finals, as Melbourne somehow blew a 12-4 lead at halftime to go on and lose by four points.

With the Titans up next though, the Storm should have no trouble bouncing back. For those keeping count at home, the Storm are a perfect 3-0 on the back of a previous loss this season, while the Gold Coast has now lost eight straight games.

Melbourne made short work of the Titans back in Round 18 winning 38-18. The Storm have now won three straight over the Gold Coast, and since Melbourne never loses back-to-back games, this one really isn’t worth overcomplicating.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-20.5 Points) @ $1.90

The NRL has done a great job of saving the best for last this season, and Sunday’s matinee game between third and fourth place should be no exception.

Canberra’s stunning win over the Storm last week leaves them in firm control of their own destiny with three rounds remaining.

Although it’s a longshot, a win this week and a Roosters loss could see Canberra up to second on the ladder. For the time being though, the Green Machine will be focused on distancing themselves from Manly with a home final up for grabs.

The Sea Eagles dusted off the Tigers at Brookvale last week winning 32-12. Jack Gosiewski played the hero for Manly, and the Sea Eagles will be hoping for more of the same as they look to earn their first win in Canberra since 2017.

The Raiders are locked in for a finals spot, but they’ll have revenge on their mind this week. Canberra lost 24-20 against Manly back in Round 7, a game Jack Wighton dominated with a pair of tries.

Our bookmakers have sided with the Green Machine this week as they search for their 15th win of the season. The Raiders are 6-4 at home on the year, while the Sea Eagles are just 5-5 on the road.

There’s no doubt Manly can keep this game close, as they have done all season. The Sea Eagles have been the best side to back at the line, covering in 15 of their 21 games.

With an equally impressive 5-3 record as the line underdog on the road this year, it’s worth backing Manly to Cover.

Tip: Back Manly to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90

2018

There are now only three weeks left in the NRL regular season and the battle for position inside the top eight is as competitive as ever.

There are only four competition points between the Sydney Roosters in 1st and the New Zealand Warriors in 7th, which makes the shootout for a place in the top four extremely competitive.

A host of teams face close to must-win situations this weekend and our complete 2018 NRL Round 23 tips can be found below.

We know the Rabbitohs are playing finals, but what do we make of the Broncos now?

Last week’s loss against the Cowboys was stunning for Wayne Bennett’s side not only because they lost, but because they failed to make the most of so many golden opportunities.

Brisbane were on the back foot from the get-go as Gideon Gela-Mosby punished the visitors in the eighth minute.

Brisbane’s defence was particularly weak in the first half, evident in their 31 missed tackles come the final whistle, but they did well to fight back and trail by only two-points at half time.

The loss sees the Broncos still in the eight, but plenty of doubt now surrounds the rugby league powerhouse with just three weeks to go.

Souths, on the other hand, well they were just unlucky.

The Bunnies met their match against the Roosters on Saturday night, but they hardly played poorly.

Anthony Seibold’s team threw the kitchen sink at the ladder leaders on the weekend, and still looked just as dangerous on attack as they had against the Storm the week prior.

What we’re now left with is a potential do-or-die scenario for Brisbane, and a must-win game for the Rabbitohs if they wish to secure a home final berth.

With just two points separating the eighth placed Broncos and the ninth placed Tigers, Brisbane could very well find themselves out of the eight this week.

A loss for the Rabbitohs, meanwhile, could see Souths drop down to fourth on the ladder.

It’s rare to see the Broncos enter a home game as the underdog, but after last week’s disappointment, it appears the bookies aren’t convinced in a Brisbane comeback.

The Broncos are 2-1 as the home underdog this year, while the Bunnies are 4-3 as the away favourite.

Much of this game will come down to the Andrew McCullough and Damien Cook battle, but overall, Brisbane’s leaders really need to step up, especially here at Suncorp, a ground the Rabbitohs have struggled to find success at.

With the Tigers hot on their heels, this is it for the Broncos. They won’t want to face the Roosters next week on the back of a third straight loss.

Tip: Back the Broncos 1-12 @ $3.60

Same Game Multi: Broncos To Win, Dane Gagai To Score, James Roberts To Score

The Tom Trbojevic tank engine steamed ahead last week for the Sea Eagles, scoring two tries during Manly’s 12-point win over the Bulldogs.

Things were a little closer for the Titans, falling by just one-point to the Panthers in excruciating golden point fashion.

With all eyes on the top of the ladder, you’d be forgiven for overlooking the importance of this game, but the wooden spoon battle has become intriguing as of late.

Both of these teams hold 7-14 records, and with Manly and Gold Coast tied on 16 points apiece, this game could see either side move as high as 10th on the ladder.

Manly have won three of their last five encounters against the Titans, and enter as the heavy favourites at home this week.

The Titans are a woeful 3-9 as the away underdog over the last 12 months, and after last weeks dismal defensive display in the final minutes, it’s pretty hard to trust Garth Brennan’s side on the road.

The Sea Eagles have now won two straight, and with Trbojevic still showing strong post Origin form, you have to side with Manly.

Tip: Back Manly To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)  @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Manly To Win 1-12, Jorge Taufua To Score, First Try Converted

This shapes up as a game for the Storm to get their season back on track, but after the Eels pummeled the Dragons by 36-points last week, who knows what’s in store.

Melbourne didn’t do a whole lot wrong last week against the Sharks.

Their star-studded line up produced plenty of attack, including some brilliant Josh Addo-Carr runs, but the Storm’s inability to keep Cronulla inside their own half meant the difference between winning and losing.

The Eels, well there’s no telling what this Parramatta side is capable of in the not too distant future.

If Jarryd Hayne keeps this up, the Eels might just pinch a couple more wins before seasons end, a particularly scary thought for the rest of the bottom half of the ladder.

But of course, can the Eels really pull this off on the road against the Storm?

It’s doable, but Parra will have to replicate what they did so well last week – control possession.

The Sharks showed that when they complete sets and force the Storm into plenty of dropouts, Melbourne’s usually fluid tempo suffers.

Before we get too carried away however, it’s worth remembering just how poor the Eels have been in away games this year.

Parramatta are yet to win a game on the road, suffering 10 losses on the season.

To make matters worse, the Eels are also 0-4 as the away underdog vs. the Storm.

This one shapes up as a chance for Melbourne to regain their confidence, and with a chance to reclaim top spot on the ladder, they should do just that.

Tip: Back Melbourne Storm 13+ @ $1.90

Same Game Multi: Storm 13+, Josh Addo-Carr to Score 2 Or More Tries, Under 42.5 Total Match Points

The Cameron Ciraldo era got off to a rocky start for the Panthers last week, but Penrith still managed to walk away with a narrow one-point win over the Titans.

Lady luck certainly didn’t favour Newcastle though, as the Knights fell by 16-points to the Warriors in New Zealand.

There’s nothing but bragging rights on the line for the Knights in this one, but the Panthers have plenty to play for.

Penrith not only needs to prove to their supporters that they just might be the real deal come finals, they also need to beat Newcastle comfortably with two remaining games against the Warriors and Storm ahead.

Fortunately for the newly appointed Ciraldo, the Panthers have won five straight over the Knights dating back to 2015.

None of those games have been close, and with Newcastle missing 45 tackles against the Warriors last week, it’s doubtful this one will be either.

Penrith are 5-3 as the home favourite this season, while the Knights are 4-7 as the away underdog.

James Maloney’s knee injury is a killer blow to the Panthers, but Nathan Cleary’s game-winning extra point dropkick showed he is the man to fill the void.

If Cleary can show the same leadership qualities this week, the Panthers should have no trouble trouncing the Knights.

Tip: Back Penrith To Win 1-12 @ $3.00

Same Game Multi: Panthers To Win 1-12, Josh Mansour First Try Scorer, Waqa Blake Anytime Try Scorer

Yep you guessed it, this game holds plenty of ladder implications as well.

The Tigers know they have to win out from here, and last week’s two-point win over the Raiders down in Canberra certainly helped.

Esan Marsters was electric in that game helping out on both sides of the ball, but unfortunately the same can’t be said for Dragons captain Ben Hunt.

St. George slumped to another loss against the Eels last week, making it four from their last five.

Hunt has been particularly disappointing post Origin, failing to put the team on his back by generating scoring chances.

Hunt’s lack of leadership has cost the Dragons. St. George were the premiership favourites at one stage, but one more loss this week could see them slip all the way down to eight.

Coach Paul McGregor is trying desperately to roll with the punches, but a potential knockout blow could come this week at Leichardt Oval.

Tigers fans will likely show up in full force, and if they can control the momentum at home, Wests are every chance to not only upset the Dragons, but possibly inch their way closer to the eight.

Tip: Back Wests Tigers To Beat The Line (-1.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Tigers To Beat The Line, Kevin Naiqama To Score, Dragons To Win First Half

A trip to Melbourne to face the Storm was always a daunting task for the Sharks, especially on the back of a loss to Manly the week prior.

But full credit to Cronulla, they took it to the Storm for 80-minutes, and weathered an onslaught of attack during the second half.

The same can also be said for the Cowboys, who recorded a gutsy win over the Broncos in the derby.

Both sides are high on confidence right now, which sets us up for a potential Saturday evening blockbuster in Sydney.

Much of Cronulla’s success last week can be accredited to Paul Gallen. The veteran workhorse laid some huge tackles on several of Melbourne’s playmakers, and also helped out on attack with some big runs.

The Cowboys will enter this game without Jason Taumalolo, which of course favours the same kind of scintillating play Gallen and the rest of the Sharks’ stars are capable of.

Cronulla’s last home game resulted in bitter defeat, but with Top 4 still a possibility, you have to back the hosts this week.

The Sharks have won three of their last five against the Cowboys, and if they can rely on that same steely defensive nerve they showed last week, Cronulla should be no match for the wooden spoon favourites.

Tip: Back Cronulla Sharks 1-12 @ $2.88

Same Game Multi: Sharks 1-12, Paul Gallen To Score, Sharks To Win Both Halves

Don’t look now, but the Warriors actually won a game at home.

Also, New Zealand are now staring at three wins on the trot should they defeat the Bulldogs on Sunday, a milestone that should come easy for the visitors given their success on the road this season.

The Warriors were dominant last week against the Knights, controlling possession and also feeding Roger Tuivasa-Sheck plenty of the ball.

That in turn led to plenty of try-scoring opportunities for David Fusitu’a, which should worry the Dogs this week.

Canterbury were particularly flat last week against Manly as they committed 13 errors in the 18-6 defeat.

The Dogs are already looking ahead to next season, but if they wish to avoid the wooden spoon, they’ll need to show up ready to play at home this week.

As we have seen in the past though, the Bulldogs are capable of upsetting Top 8 teams on their day.

Points have come at a premium at times this season, but let’s not forget the Dogs did beat the Tigers and the Broncos in successive games just three weeks ago.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs To Win @ $2.50

Same Game Multi: Bulldogs To Win, Solomone Kata To Win, Highest Scoring Half: 1st Half

Is the minor premiership a sure-thing for Sydney?

There’s still a ways to go, but the Roosters looked the goods last week against South Sydney.

James Tedesco and Cooper Cronk were monumental for the Chooks last week, but was so was Latrell Mitchell slotting all five of his set shots.

The Roosters defence also held strong against the Rabbitohs, silencing anyone that doubted Sydney’s ability to shutdown the leagues top attacking sides.

The Raiders are no easy-beats, but the Roosters’ defence will now receive another test this week.

Canberra’s attack can be lethal at times, and although the Green Machine are out of the finals race, they’ll fancy themselves to wind down their season on a high note.

Canberra has won their last two encounters against Sydney, but the Raiders are yet to face the Roosters this season.

As we know, the tri-colours are a different team this season, and with a 6-2 record as the away favourite, you can’t back against Trent Robinson’s side.

There’s still plenty to prove for the Roosters over the next few weeks. If they can show the same kind of ferocity on attack and continue to burst through tackles like they did last week, Sydney will put the entire league on notice.

Better yet, a dominant win in Canberra, a ground the Roosters have won on since 2010, will mean a great deal to the Roosters’ confidence.

Tip: Back the Roosters 1-12 @ $3.10

Same Game Multi: Roosters 1-12, Jordan Rapana First Try Scorer, Roosters To Win Second Halve

2017

There is now only a month left of the NRL regular season and there is nothing between a number of the leading contenders.

Melbourne Storm are the clear standout and remain premiership favourites, but this past weekend showed that any of the seven other sides in the top eight are all capable of playing in the Grand Final.

Just about every game in the NRL this weekend will have some form of finals relevance and there are a host of excellent betting opportunities, so don’t miss out on our complete 2017 NRL Round 23 tips below.

This is the only game in the NRL this weekend that does not have any bearing on the outcome on the top eight and neither team have a great deal to play for.

South Sydney ended their losing streak with a thrilling win over the St George Illawarra Dragons and they will start this clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs as favourites.

The Rabbitohs have proven a very difficult side to trust as favourites this season – they have won only four of their past nine games as the punter’s elect – and winning back-to-back games has proven to be an issue.

Canterbury produced another flat performance against the Parramatta Eels and the future of coach Des Hasler is hanging in the balance.

The Bulldogs have won only five of their past 19 games as underdogs and they really haven’t looked like winning a game in recent weeks.

These are two teams that really are impossible to trust from a betting perspective and this is a clash that I am more than happy to stay out of.

No Bet

The Parramatta Eels have won six games on the trot and they now have a genuine case of finishing the season in the top four.

Parramatta are the shortest-priced favourites in the NRL this weekend and they really should prove too strong for the Newcastle Knights.

The Eels have won five of their past six games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are 3-1-2 against the line in this scenario.

Newcastle recorded back-to-back wins for the first time since 2015 when they beat the New Zealand Warriors last weekend, but this is obviously a much tougher assignment.

The Knights have not won away from home since 2015, but they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario.

The one betting market that really does standout in this clash is the Under in Total Points betting markets.

Backing the Under has been a profitable playing in games involving either of these teams all season long and really does look likely here as the Eels rarely put their rivals to the sword.

Back Under 40.5 Points

This is one of the games of the weekend and the winner will really solidify their position in the top four.

The Brisbane Broncos returned to winning form with an emphatic 54-0 win over the Gold Coast Titans and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

Brisbane have won 11 of their past 12 games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are now 7-5 against the line in this scenario.

The Cronulla Sharks produced a flat effort against the Canberra Raiders last weekend and they have suffered back-to-back losses on only two occasions in the past 12 months.

Cronulla’s record away from home has been nothing short of outstanding this season – they have won seven of their past eight games in this scenario for a massive profit.

There really is not as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and Cronulla are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 6.5 points.

Back Cronulla To Beat The Line (+6.5 Points)

The St George Illawarra Dragons will start this game as favourites and this really is a must-win game for the struggling outfit.

St George Illawarra slipped outside the top eight following their shocking loss to the South Sydney Rabbitohs and they really can’t afford to drop any more games.

The Dragons have won six of their past seven games as home favourites for a clear profit, but they are only 2-5 against the line in this scenario.

The Gold Coast Titans produced one of the worst performances in their history when they were flogged by the Brisbane Broncos last weekend and they surely can’t play that poorly again.

Gold Coast have won only two of their past nine games as away underdogs for a loss and they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

The only betting play that stands out in this clash is the Over in Total Points betting markets.

The Over has saluted in nine of the past 12 home games played by the Dragons and has also been a profitable betting play in matches involving the Titans.

Back Over 43.5 Points

The Melbourne Storm are four points clear of the Sydney Roosters and a win would all but secure the Storm the minor premiership.

Melbourne produced another professional performance to account for the North Queensland Cowboys last Friday night and it is no surprise that they will start this clash as clear favourites.

The Storm have won nine of their past 13 games as home favourites for a narrow profit, but they are a poor 5-8 against the line in this scenario.

Sydney started their clash with the Manly Sea Eagles in excellent fashion and looked set to cruise to victory, but they completely fell apart in the second half to suffer a very poor loss.

The Roosters have not won a single game as away underdogs this season and they are 2-3 against the line in this scenario.

This is a clash that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.

No Bet

The Penrith Panthers now find themselves in the top eight and will start this clash with the North Queensland Cowboys as clear favourites.

Penrith have won five games on the trot and their record at Pepper Stadium this season has been nothing short of outstanding.

The Panthers have won ten of their past 12 games as home favourites for a profit and their record against the line in this scenario is just as good.

North Queensland were no match for Melbourne last weekend and they go into this clash with a number of injury concerns.

The Cowboys have won three of their past eight games as away underdogs for a small loss, but they are 6-2 against the line in this scenario and they have won seven of their past eight games against the Panthers including a narrow win over their rivals less than two months ago.

There really is not as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and another close game looks likely, which means that the Cowboys are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 6.5 points.

Back North Queensland Cowboys To Beat The Line (+6.5 Points)

The New Zealand Warriors have the home-ground advantage, but it is the Canberra Raiders that will start this clash as clear favourites.

Canberra kept themselves in finals contention with a big win over the Cronulla Sharks and this is another game that they really should win.

The Raiders have won four of their past seven games as away favourites and they have the same record against the line in this scenario.

New Zealand were unable to beat the Newcastle Knights last weekend and they really do look unlikely to win another game this season.

The Warriors have been very flat without Shaun Johnson in the side and they really do look like a side that already has one eye on 2018.

This is a game that Canberra should win comfortably and the line of 6.5 points really does not look like anywhere near enough.

Back Canberra To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)

The Manly Sea Eagles ended their losing streak with an upset win over the Sydney Roosters and they will start this clash with the Wests Tigers as clear favourites.

Manly were nothing short of sensational in the second-half against the Roosters and a repeat of that performance would make them far too good for the Tigers,

The Sea Eagles have been excellent away from home this season and they beat the Tigers comfortably just over a month ago.

Wests were no match for the Penrith Panthers on Sunday afternoon and this represents another tough challenge.

The Tigers have won only one of their past ten games as home underdogs and they are a very poor 2-8 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that Manly really should win comfortably and the line of 7.5 points will not be enough.

Back Manly To Beat The Line (-7.5 Points)

2016

There are plenty of big games in round 23 of the 2016 NRL season as we continue the build towards the finals.

The Sydney Roosters and the North Queensland Cowboys are both expected to be premiership contenders this season and they will do battle in one of the games of the round, while the Cronulla Sharks and St George Illawarra Dragons will face off in The Battle Of The Shire.

The Brisbane Broncos return to Brisbane for an interesting clash with the Parramatta Eels and the Canterbury Bulldogs take on the Manly Sea Eagles in an all-Sydney clash.

The Canterbury Bulldogs have bounced back from their disastrous loss to the North Queensland Cowboys and will go into this clash clash as favourites following two straight victories.

The Cowboys loss is the only defeat that Canterbury have suffered in the past two months and they have won eight of their ten games as home favourites, but are only 3-7 against the line in this scenario.

Manly have their winning streak ended at the hands of Parramatta last weekend and they really need to win this game to keep alive their finals chances.

The Sea Eagles have actually performed fairly well away from home this season and they have won two of their six games as away underdogs, while they are 4-2 against the line in this situation.

I expect this to be a very even, low-scoring clash and I am keen to back Manly against the line with a start of 6.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back Manly To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)

The Brisbane Broncos and Parramatta Eels both returned to winning form last weekend and this will be an intriguing clash.

It was far from pretty, but the Broncos came away with the four points from their clash with the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

This is a position that the Broncos have struggled in in recent weeks and they have won just eight of their past 13 games as home favourites, while they are 6-7 against the line.

Parramatta ended their lengthy losing streak with a hard-fought victory over Manly last Friday night and they are sure to take plenty of confidence from that performance.

The Eels have proven to be a profitable betting play as away underdogs this season – they are 2-5 in head to head betting and 4-3 against the line.

Brisbane should be able to win this game, but the line of 12.5 does seem excessive and I am very keen on the Parramatta Eels at the line.

Recommended Bet: Back Parramatta To Beat The Line (+12.5 Points)

Both the Wests Tigers and Gold Coast Titans have found impressive form in the past month and this is a genuine Saturday afternoon blockbuster.

The NRL return of Jarryd Hayne may have drawn a big crowd and big TV ratings, but he was unable to help the Titans to a victory and they need to win this clash to climb back into the top eight.

The Titans have proven to be a profitable betting play away from home this season and they have won six of their past 16 games on the road, while they are 11-5 against the line.

The Wests Tigers produced arguably their best performance for a number of seasons to shock the North Queensland Cowboys and they have now win on the trot.

They are a young side that is playing with a level of confidence that has not been seen for a number of seasons and are now genuine top eight contenders.

The Tigers have won two of their past three games at Campbelltown Stadium, but in  recent seasons they have generally under performed expectations at the historic home of the Magpies.

There is no doubt that Hayne would have taken plenty of benefit from his NRL return and he can help the Titans to a crucial victory.

Recommended Bet: Back The Gold Coast Titans To Win @ $1.92

The New Zealand Warriors have moved into the top eight and they are clear favourites to beat South Sydney this weekend.

The Warriors produced a classy overall performance to beat the Gold Coast last weekend and they will enhance their chances of playing finals football with another win this weekend.

New Zealand have been a tough team to trust as favourites this season – they have won four of their six games in this scenario and are a very poor 1-5 against the line.

South Sydney produced their best performance in sometime against the Melbourne Storm last weekend, but they were still unable to come away with the two points.

The Rabbitohs can’t wait for this season to end and their betting record this season is incredibly poor.

They have won just one of their past seven games as away underdogs and they are 3-4 against the line.

The market looks to have got this game just about right and I am happy to stay out of this fixture from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Their is no love lost between the St George Illawarra Dragons and the Cronulla Sharks and this is always a tense affair.

The Cronulla Sharks had their unbeaten run ended by the Canberra Raiders last weekend, but they will still start this game as clear favourites and it is easy to see why.

Cronulla beat the Dragons 30-2 when they met earlier this season and they have won six of their past seven games as away favourites, while they are 5-2 against the line.

St George were far from disgraced against the Brisbane Broncos last weekend and they will be buoyed by the return of Josh Dugan and Tyson Frizell.

The Dragons have not been far away in recent weeks and their record in front of their home fans is not bad – they are 4-4 in both head-to-head betting and against the line.

The Dragons will be in this for a long way, but class will prevail in the end and the Sharks will bounce back from their defeat in emphatic fashion.

Recommended Bet: Back Cronulla Sharks To Beat The Line (-11.5 Points)

The Penrith Panthers were nothing short of outstanding against the Sydney Roosters last weekend and they have an excellent opportunity to make it two wins on the trot.

The Panthers dominated from the outset against the Roosters – led by young halfback Nathan Cleary – and a similar performance would be enough to see out the Newcastle Knights this weekend.

The problem for punters is that the Panthers have been very tough to trust as favourites this season – they are just 2-2 as away favourites and are 3-8 on the back of a victory.

Newcastle are quickly running out of time to record their second win of the NRL season and it is tough to see that changing this weekend.

The Knights have won just one of their past ten games as home underdogs although they are a credible 5-5 against the line.

This is another game that the betting market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to ignore it from a betting standpoint.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The North Queensland Cowboys suffered a shock loss to the Wests Tigers last weekend and they face a potentially trick assignment against the Roosters this weekend.

The Cowboys produced their worst performance of the season and were extremely flat, but they will still start this clash as clear favourites.

North Queensland have not been a particularly strong betting play as away favourites this season and are 5-4 both in head-to-head betting and against the line.

The Roosters were unable to build on their upset win over the Brisbane Broncos and they were comprehensively outplayed by the Penrith Panthers last weekend.

Sydney have really struggled in front of their home fans this season and they have won just one of their past seven games as home favourites, while they are 2-1-4 against the line.

The Cowboys haven’t lost three games in a row since the start of last season and I expect the defending premiers to return to winning form.

Recommended Bet: Back The North Queensland Cowboys To Beat The Line (-6 Points)

This is the game of the weekend and it could prove to be a finals preview.

Both the Canberra Raiders and the Melbourne Storm have won six games on the trot, but it is Melbourne that will go into this clash as clear favourites.

The Storm were not at their best against South Sydney last weekend, but they still got the job done and they have won their past seven games as away favourites, while they are 5-2 against the line.

Canberra stamped themselves as genuine premiership contenders with a convincing victory over the Cronulla Sharks.

The Raiders have won nine of their past 12 games at GIO Stadium, but they have lost both their games as away underdogs in this situation and have lost three of their past four against the Storm.

Melbourne are always one of the safest betting teams in the NRL and they will get the job done on Monday night.

Recommended Bet: Back Melbourne Storm To Win @ $1.75