Three rounds to go and time running out for teams to stake their top-four claims and make a late charge for the Top 8.
It’s an intriguing NRL weekend short on out-and-out blockbusters but culminates in a highly anticipated and hugely important derby.
Wests Tigers vs Manly Sea Eagles
Thursday August 22, Leichardt Oval, 7:50pm
Sixth-placed Manly will look to consolidate their NRL finals spot and stay in the mix for a top-four finish with a comprehensive win over bottom-ranked Wests Tigers at Leichhardt Oval.
The Tigers are coming off a plucky 18-16 win over Souths, benefitting from a last-gasp forward pass call to snap a seven-match losing streak.
The result revived the Tigers’ hopes of offloading the spoon and featured standout performances from a batch of up-and-comers.
Junior Tupou and Solomon Alaimalo come in for injured backline duo Adam Doueihi and Luke Laulilii, while Latu Fainu replaces Tallyn de Silva on the bench.
The Sea Eagles are humming along with five wins from their last six, breaking down the Warriors’ initial resistance last Friday to win 24-10 in a Brookvale downpour.
Aggressive defence on the Warriors’ physical back five and crisp attack that opened up frequent holes underpinned the win.
Tolu Koula is a luxury replacement to bring into the centres for the injured Tommy Talau, while Karl Lawton returns in the second-row with Ben Trbojevic moving to the bench.
Manly has won its last six against Wests Tigers, most recently racking up a 54-12 scoreline in a Round 27 dead-rubber last year, but the Sea Eagles are searching for their first win at Leichhardt – where the Tigers are 2-2 this season – since 2007.
Prior to last week, the Tigers had leaked 24-plus points in eight straight games – and the Sea Eagles’ offence is among the most potent in the NRL and the hosts’ backline injuries won’t help combat a Manly contingent that has sizzled out wide.
Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Score Over 33.5 Total Points @ $1.87
SGM: SEA EAGLES BY 11-20 / LEHI HOPOATE TO SCORE OR MORE TRIES / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $53.88
New Zealand Warriors vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Friday August 23, Go Media Stadium, 6:00pm
A fascinating Friday night showdown in Auckland features a pair of combatants motivated by very different factors.
The Warriors are farewelling club legend Shaun Johnson – as well as departing duo Jazz Tevaga and Addin Fonua-Blake – with their finals hopes officially torched, while red-hot Canterbury continues to knock on the door of a top-four spot with the end of their eight-year playoffs drought confirmed.
Producing arguably their best half of football in a couple of months, the Warriors held Manly to 10-all at halftime on Friday and were unlucky not to lead.
But a torrent of dropped ball near the Sea Eagles’ line cruelled their upset bid in the second half in a 24-10 loss, with Johnson the worst culprit.
The Warriors’ only change sees Wayde Egan return from a one-week layoff, pushing Freddy Lussick to the bench and Chanel Harris-Tavita out of the side.
The Bulldogs warded off a spirited Dolphins challenge in Bundaberg, running away with the match 30-10 via a couple of long-range tries which have suddenly become par for the course – complementing an NRL-leading defence.
The Bulldogs’ somewhat fortunate golden point win over the Warriors in Round 18 snapped a six-match losing streak in the rivalry, but they are hunting their first win at Mt Smart since 2012 and Johnson got the Warriors home 16-14 with a controversial late try in Round 4 there last season.
Sentiment aside, it will take a fair turnaround for the Warriors to spring an emotional upset here.
They’ve generally been underwhelming at Mt Smart in 2024 – even when winning – and were horrific with their season on the line against Parramatta in their last home match.
The unchanged Bulldogs are chasing five straight wins for the first time since 2015 and look very good value as only $1.53 favourites.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-5.5) @ $1.90
SGM: ONLY BULLDOGS TO SCORE 20+ POINTS / JOSH ADDO-CARR TO SCORE 2+ TRIES / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SHAUN JOHNSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $118.32
Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels
Friday August 23, Suncorp Stadium, 8:00pm
They need other results to fall their way, but as it will stand when they run out at home on Friday night, the Brisbane Broncos are still alive in the finals race…just.
Winning all three of their remaining games is a non-negotiable – and it starts with second-last Parramatta Eels.
The Broncos went into the bye on the back of a rousing 42-18 win over the Cowboys in Townsville after trailing by 12 – just their second win in 10 games.
Kotoni Staggs was in devastating form and the likes of Corey Jensen stood up with Payne Haas out.
Reece Walsh is a huge out for this do-or-die game, but Tristan Sailor is a handy replacement and Selwyn Cobbo returns on the wing as Haas and Ezra Mam remain sidelined.
A brief Eels revival that sparked a win over the Warriors in Auckland and very nearly pulled off an upset against the Panthers faded away in a listless 38-14 loss the Roosters last week.
The blue-and-golds now find themselves in a genuine battle to avoid the wooden spoon.
Maika Sivo and Kelma Tuilagi move from the bench to the starting line-up, while Shaun Lane moves to prop for the suspended Wiremu Greig.
The Broncos have won the teams’ last three encounters by double-digit margins, including a 30-14 victory at CommBank Stadium in Round 10 with Deine Mariner bagging a double.
The Eels went down 54-10 at The Gabba in 2023 but have taken out the last three encounters at Suncorp Stadium.
A casualty ward stacked with big names – the story of the Broncos’ season – makes this anything but straightforward for the Broncos.
But the Eels have not conceded less than 20 points since Round 4 and have won just two of their last 15, while roster upheavals won’t be doing anything for their morale.
Tip: Back Over 51.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: BRONCOS BY 11-20 POINTS / DEINE MARINER FIRST OR SECOND TRYSCORER / MAIKA SIVO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $47.62
Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers
Saturday August 24, GIO Stadium, 3:00pm
Canberra’s last hour of football has been diabolical, yet the Raiders remain a slim chance of reaching the finals as they prepare to take on a Cleary-less Penrith Panthers outfit.
The Raiders are on a three-match losing streak, with a 12-all scoreline at home to Manly in Round 23 turning into a 46-24 loss, which only got worse in Townsville as they folded 42-4 against the Cowboys.
Jordan Rapana (concussion) returns at fullback, with Kaeo Weekes going to five-eighth at Adam Cook’s expense.
Ethan Strange (calf) is ruled out, which sees Albert Hopoate come in on a wing and Seb Kris move to centre.
The Panthers’ five-match winning streak – and likely their minor premiership aspirations – were halted by a 24-22 loss at home in their heavyweight duel with Melbourne.
Nathan Cleary’s late exit with a shoulder injury with the scores tied was the flashpoint moment, while a loss here would suddenly cloud throw a bit of uncertain on their top-four spot.
Brad Schneider comes into the halves for Cleary, while Luke Sommerton replaces suspended hooker Mitch Kenny.
Liam Martin is back from suspension, pushing Lindsay Smith to the bench and Matt Eisenhuth out.
The Panthers are on a five-match winning streak against the Raiders, winning each match by 16-plus margins. Last season’s sole clash finished 53-12 at GIO Stadium.
Penrith has impressively navigated Cleary’s absence this season and in previous campaigns, but Canberra will sniff an opportunity and can at least make a game of this as $3.20 underdogs.
In 10 games without Cleary in 2024, the Panthers have lost four and won by more than 10 only twice.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+9.5) @ $1.90
SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JORDAN RAPANA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / IZACK TAGO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $68.36
Melbourne Storm vs Dolphins
Saturday August 24, AAMI Park, 5:30pm
The minor premiership all but secure, Melbourne Storm will be looking to maintain their intensity when they host a desperate Dolphins side on Saturday evening.
The Storm underlined their title credentials with a 24-22 win at Penrith last Thursday, silencing the doubters.
Cameron Munster continues to grow in influence in his injury comeback journey, while Eliesa Katoa bagged a first-half double.
Mr. Fix-it Tyran Wishart – who scored a brilliant solo try last week through the teeth of the Panthers’ defence – goes to the wing this week for Grant Anderson (concussion) and Sua Faalogo takes the bench utility spot.
The Dolphins dropped out of the Top 8 again with their fourth loss in five games, a 30-10 defeat to red-hot Canterbury in Bundaberg. They competed gamely for an hour before falling away late. Defence across 80 minutes remains a bugbear, conceded 26-plus in nine of their last 10 games.
Mark Nicholls returns from concussion for Lachlan Hubner in the Dolphins’ only change.
The Storm are 2-0 against the Dolphins after two hard-fought Suncorp Stadium encounters, winning 24-16 last season and 30-24 in Round 16 this year.
With a shock loss to St George Illawarra in their last game at AAMI Park to make up for, expect the Storm to put the too-often-brittle Dolphins to the sword.
Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-15.5) @ $1.90
SGM: STORM OVER 33.5 TOTAL POINTS / WILL WARBRICK TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / JACK HOWARTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAMAYNE ISAAKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $34.32
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
Saturday August 24, Accor Stadium, 7:35pm
Hanging by a thread in the finals race, Newcastle Knights need to take advantage of an ailing South Sydney Rabbitohs on Saturday night at Accor Stadium.
The injury-ravaged Rabbitohs have lost their last four, including an 18-16 defeat to last-placed Wests Tigers last Saturday.
It’s been a long, hard season for the club with the likes of Cameron Murray striving to carry Souths to a respectable finish to the campaign.
The Knights snapped a three-game slide with a 34-18 win over the Tigers in Round 23, before going down in an agonising, controversial 19-18 golden point defeat at Cronulla last Sunday.
The precarious ladder position it’s left them in aside, the Knights could take plenty out of the tough road trip.
Playmaking changes for both sides with Dean Hawkins replacing Cody Walker (concussion) at halfback in the Rabbitohs’ only alteration, while Jack Cogger comes in at five-eighth for Tyson Gamble (hand) for the Knights and Dylan Lucas is back in the centres for Newcastle.
The Rabbitohs have won 12 of their last 15 against the Knights, but the Novocastrians won 2023’s sole encounter 29-10 at home.
Souths have won three of their last four at Accor Stadium, while the Knights have won just one of their last five away from Newcastle.
But if Kalyn Ponga can lead the way, expect those trends to reverse to keep the Knights in the Top 8 mix.
Tip: Back the Knights to Win by 1-12 @ $3.00
SGM: KNIGHTS WIN / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / KALYN PONGA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DYLAN LUCAS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $27.56
Gold Coast Titans vs Sydney Roosters
Sunday August 25, CBUS Super Stadium, 2:00pm
All but out of the running after consecutive disappointing defeats, Gold Coast Titans line up against a Sydney Roosters side aiming to consolidate a top-four finish.
The Titans’ compelling late-season charge fell to bits in a 44-0 home loss to Cronulla in Round 23. After a solid start in Wollongong, they were overrun by the Dragons – unable to capitalise on a glut of good ball with a big wind at their backs in the second half of a 32-16 defeat.
Beau Fermor and Moe Fotuaika bolster the Titans’ pack this week, with Erin Clark and Klese Haas slipping back to the bench and Keenan Palasia and Josiah Pahulu dropping out.
The Roosters are cruising with seven wins from their last eight games, with a loss in Melbourne the only blip.
After patchy wins over Manly (34-30) and the Dolphins (40-34), the Tricolours came off the bye to overwhelm Parramatta 38-14 with Dom Young running in a hat-trick.
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves returns from a four-game ban, while Nat Butcher comes in at lock for the injured Connor Watson and Sandon Smith joins the bench.
The Roosters have won 10 straight against the Titans, including sole clashes in 2022 and 2023 by 18-plus margins. James Tedesco has scored eight tries in his six games against the Titans as a Rooster.
A return to their defensively unstable ways over the past fortnight does not bode well for the Titans versus the firepower-laden Roosters.
But Trent Robinson’s side has struggled to put dominant 80-minute performances in regardless of the opposition and we should see some resolve from the Titans.
Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+15.5) @ $1.90
SGM: OVER 53.5 TOTAL POINTS / ROOSTERS BY 11-20 / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOSEPH MANU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOJO FIFITA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $51.76
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks
Sunday August 25, WIN Stadium, 4:05pm
Bitter rivals St George Illawarra and Cronulla both have plenty to play for in this round-closer in Wollongong.
The Dragons can take a massive step towards a finals return with an upset, while the Sharks need to keep winning to stay in the top four.
The Saints bounced back from their disappointing 28-10 loss to Canterbury – which was compounded by Kyle Flanagan’s biting charge – in impressive fashion, grinding down Gold Coast 32-16 at a blustery WIN Stadium.
Ben Hunt steered the ship brilliantly, while a gutsy second-half defensive display snuffed out the Titans’ comeback bid.
The Dragons’ only change sees Raymond Faitala-Mariner return to the bench for Round 24 debutant Lyhkan King-Tongia. Jack Bird remains at five-eighth.
The Sharks have recovered from a 2-5 run to win their last three games, thrashing the Titans 44-0 in Round 23 before holding on 19-18 in golden point at home to Newcastle.
Contentious calls aside, it was another character-filled display from a Cronulla side missing its first-choice halves, among other top-liners.
Braydon Trindall returns from injury, allowing Blayke Brailey to move back to hooker and Cameron McInnes to lock.
Kayal Iro is also back after an illness, along with Teig Wilton and Tom Hazelton. Sione Katoa (concussion) is replaced on the wing by Sam Stonestreet, while Siosifa Talakai (calf) is also out.
The Sharks have dominated the derby, winning their last eight against the Dragons – including a gritty 20-10 result at home in Round 9. Three of the previous four victories came by margins of 24-plus.
The Dragons have proven an unreliable week-to-week proposition, not losing back-to-back since Round 9 but winning consecutive games only twice all season.
The $2.30 outsiders are 4-1 at WIN Stadium, but this shapes as a flip-of-the-coin dogfight.
Tip: Back Either Team to Win by less than 10.5 Points @ $1.94
SGM: DRAGONS +3.5 / UNDER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / CHRISTIAN TUIPOLOTU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KAYAL IRO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $37.78