2024 NRL Round 26 Preview

It’s the penultimate round of the 2024 NRL regular season – and all eight matches will have an impact on the Top 8 or Top 4 picture.

Injuries, suspensions, the potential return of star players and selection choices add another layer of intrigue to Round 26.

The minor premiership already sewn, Melbourne Storm’s controversial resting strategy has changed the context of this clash with North Queensland Cowboys.

The Storm demolished the Dolphins 48-6 last week to make it 10 wins from 11 games, but this week’s line-up means formguides count for little.

Craig Bellamy has spelled Jahrome Hughes, Harry Grant, Will Warbrick, Jack Howarth, Nick Meaney, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Josh King, Shawn Blore, Eli Katoa, Trent Loiero and Tui Kamikamica.

New halfback Grant Anderson and capable hooker Tyran Wishart join Cam Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen in the spine, while Dean Ieremia, Marion Seve, Young Tonumaipea and Sua Faalogo make up an all-new three-quarter line.

Prop Lazarus Vaalepu gets his first run-on appearance, and Keagan Russell-Smith, Tristan Powell and Ativalu Lisati will debut from the bench.

This opens up an opportunity for the sixth-placed Cowboys, who are looking to clinch a home elimination final. They are coming off the bye, having trounced Canberra 42-4 in Round 24 in an excellent response to a heavy defeat to Brisbane.

Jeremiah Nanai and Jason Taumalolo return from the North Queensland casualty ward in a double-boost.

After losing the teams’ previous 12 encounters, the Cowboys took out their sole clashes with the Storm in 2022 (36-6) and 2023 (45-20) in emphatic style in Townsville.

The Cowboys have been installed as $1.24 favourites, but they can’t afford to take the visits lightly despite their mass changes. Nevertheless, a settled Cowboys side should have too much forward firepower to be in any danger of getting rolled here.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-12.5) @ $1.90

SGM: COWBOYS BY 21-30 / OVER 52.5 TOTAL POINTS / VALENTINE HOLMES 16+ POINTS / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / RYAN PAPENHUYZEN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $43.67

Canterbury’s and Manly’s NRL finals returns are confirmed, but the Bulldogs are still pushing for a top-four finish, while the Sea Eagles are striving to stay in the frame for a home elimination final.

The Bulldogs have won five in a row – including the last three by 16-plus margins – and are chasing six straight for the first time since 2015.

They overcame a sloppy start and an emotional occasion at Mt Smart Stadium to run out comfortable 34-18 winners over the Warriors last Friday (albeit aided by a couple of sin-bin non-calls). The Bulldogs played the conditions superbly with Toby Sexton’s and Matt Burton’s kicking game crucial.

Stephen Crichton’s suspension sees Jacob Kiraz move to centre and Jeral Skelton come in on the wing – a combination that flourished in the big win over Brisbane a few weeks back. Jaeman Salmon starts at lock for injured Kurt Mann and Josh Curran returns from a one-week layoff on the bench.

Manly’s outside chance of a top-four berth evaporated with a 34-26 upset loss to Wests Tigers, hampered by having three players sin-binned. Tom Trbojevic grabbed a hat-trick but it was the Sea Eagles’ equal-worst defensive effort of the season and a sizeable wake-up call.

Tommy Talau is back at centre, with Tolu Koula reverting to a bench that also includes Ethan Bullemor. Corey Waddell is out suspended.

The Sea Eagles have won nine of their last 10 against the Bulldogs, including both 2023 encounters by 18-plus margins.

Adding to the Bulldogs’ edge in overall form and their NRL-best defensive record, the Bulldogs have also won their last seven straight at Accor Stadium. The Sea Eagles have won just two of their last eight away from 4 Pines Park.

A team with DCE and Turbo can never be counted out, but the Bulldogs’ relentlessness without the ball should again prove the difference.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Win by 1-12 @ $2.90

SGM: BULLDOGS WIN / UNDER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / LEHI HOPOATE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRONSON XERRI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $26.61

A fortnight ago Penrith was gearing up for a virtual minor premiership playoff. Now the three-time champs’ top-four berth is under genuine threat with their best player sidelined. Depleted also-ran South Sydney should provide the Panthers with the opportunity to right the ship at home.

Nathan Cleary broke down with a shoulder injury late in the Panthers’ 24-22 loss to Melbourne in Round 24, before they were edged out 22-18 by a desperate Canberra side in the capital last Saturday. They uncharacteristically gave up late leads in both games.

Sunia Turuva and Paul Alamoti come in for Daine Laurie and Casey McLean, while Panthers hooker Mitch Kenny is back from suspension.

Souths are limping towards the finish line and staring down the barrel a sixth consecutive loss. The 15th-placed side were overrun 36-16 at home to Newcastle on Saturday. They have failed to score more than 16 points and average 27 points conceded on this current slide.

Cameron Murray’s season-ending suspension is a blow for Souths, but Cody Walker returns from concussion protocols and Siliva has been added to the bench with Shaq Mitchell ruled out.

The Panthers have won 11 of their last 13 against the Rabbitohs, who are searching for their first win at Penrith since 2019. But the 17.5-point line looks a little big with the Panthers winning just one of their 11 games without Cleary this year by more than 16.

Tip: Back Under 48.5 Total Points @ $1.90

SGM: PANTHERS/PANTHERS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / RABBITOHS +17.5 / LIAM MARTIN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACOB GAGAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $32.77

St George Illawarra sits in outright eighth – but its first finals berth since 2018 is far from assured. With a final-round clash against Canberra and a poor for-and-against, the Dragons will view this away assignment against second-last Parramatta as must-win.

The Dragons’ win-loss-win-loss pattern since Round 14 continued, following up an impressive 32-16 win over the Titans at WIN Stadium with a disappointing 38-10 loss to the Sharks at the same venue last Sunday.

The Saints were in it at halftime just 14-6 down but familiar defensive lapses crept in during the second stanza.

The Eels have won just one of their last 10, giving up an early lead in a somewhat heartening 30-24 loss to the desperate Broncos in Brisbane on Friday. It was the sixth time in eight games they’ve leaked 30-plus and they have not conceded less than 20 points since Round 4.

There should be no shortage of motivation in their last home game of the year, however, ahead of next week’s ‘spoon bowl’ against Wests Tigers.

Both teams have just one change: Luca Moretti replaces Jake Tago on the Eels’ bench, while Raymond Faitala-Mariner takes the place of Lyhkan King-Tongia on the Dragons’ interchange.

The Dragons have won just three of their last 14 against the Eels. But while inconsistency has been the story of their improved campaign, the Saints haven’t lost consecutive games since Round 9 and haven’t lost to a team currently outside the Top 8 since Round 5.

St George Illawarra is a value option as only a narrow favourite, with the Eels riding a club-record four-match losing streak at CommBank Stadium.

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (-2.5) @ $1.90

SGM: DRAGONS WIN / OVER 52.5 TOTAL POINTS / EELS UNDER 24.5 TOTAL POINTS / ZAC LOMAX & CHRISTIAN TUIPOLOTU TO HAVE 2+ TRIES COMBINED / CLINT GUTHERSON & MAIKA SIVO TO HAVE 2+ TRIES COMBINED @ $24.28

It’s the biggest Battle of Brisbane yet with the Dolphins and Broncos squaring off in a virtual shootout to remain in the Top 8 race. Both teams are in a share of ninth spot, two points shy of the Dragons.

The Dolphins have lost five of their last six, with Souths-bound Wayne Bennett copping the lion’s share of the blame after last week’s dismal 48-6 loss in Melbourne – but that’s just the way the supercoach would prefer it ahead of this high-profile grudge match.

Their defence has fallen away alarmingly in a repeat of last season, though, leaking at least 30 points in their last four games and 26-plus in 10 of their last 11.

Sean O’Sullivan and Mark Nicholls will start in the place of concussed Dolphins duo Kodi Nikorima and Jesse Bromwich. Mason Teague and Kurt Donoghoe join the bench, with Jeremy Marshall-King and Tevita Pangai Jr a chance of being late inclusions.

The Broncos have stayed alive with back-to-back wins over the Cowboys (42-18) and Eels (30-24) either side of the Round 24 bye, despite injuries to Payne Haas, Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh.

Kevin Walters’ defiant guarantee that the Broncos will make the finals – despite needing other results to go their way – puts unnecessary pressure on his team, but the Broncos have rediscovered their attacking mojo.

Haas has been named in the reserves; his return would be timely with Kobe Hetherington (concussion) ruled out. At this stage Ben Te Kura will join the bench in the Broncos’ only change.

The Broncos have won all three derbies with the Dolphins to date: 18-12 and 24-16 last year, and 28-14 in Round 6 this season. Selwyn Cobbo scored six tries across the three matches.

Late inclusion of Haas, TPJ and/or JMK could swing the balance, but both sides’ recent momentum points to a Broncos victory – albeit one achieved on a knife’s edge.

Tip: Back Selwyn Cobbo to Score 2 or More Tries @ $2.85

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Cronulla is hitting form at the right time and will continue its consolidation of a top-four spot – as well as pushing for a home qualifying final – at home against an also-ran Warriors outfit wrapping up their season on Saturday night.

The Sharks have gone up a gear via a four-match winning streak, bookending their nervy golden point home win over the Knights with blistering road victories over the Titans (44-0) and Dragons (38-0).

Grinding out a halftime lead in Wollongong before powering away for arguably their best win of the season, the Sharks’ makeshift halves pairing and depleted back-five were dominant.

Nicho Hynes is a chance of returning from an eight-week layoff after being named in the reserves. Sione Katoa and Siosifa Talakai are definitely back, with the latter replacing suspended centre Jesse Ramien.

The emotion of Shaun Johnson and co.’s farewell was enough to get the Warriors out to a familiar 12-0 lead at home last Friday, but they fell away to a 34-18 loss to Canterbury – their eighth in 10 games.

Unimaginative attack in the face of a suffocating defence and frequent lapses without the ball wee the story of the night, as it has been for much of a deflating campaign.

Warriors centres Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Adam Pompey have been ruled out, replaced by Ali Leiataua and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, with Taine Tuaupiki coming in at fullback. Tom Ale is named on the bench and Chanel Harris-Tavita 18th man, but the pair swapped last week in a late change.

The Sharks have won 16 of their last 22 against the Warriors, responding to twin defeats in 2023 with a 16-12 comeback in Round 1 in Auckland this season. The Warriors have won just two of their last eight at Shark Park.

Backline tweaks and the departure of Johnson and Sharks-bound Addin Fonua-Blake offer some hope for the Warriors here, but anything like either side’s recent form should see Cronulla coast to another important win.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Cover the Line (+14.5) @ $1.90

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Results earlier in the round may prove deflating for Newcastle, but a home win on Sunday against out-of-contention Gold Coast nevertheless keeps the Knights in with a sniff of nabbing eighth spot.

The Knights bounced back from an agonising golden point loss at Cronulla with a solid 36-16 away win over South Sydney, with Dane Gagai and recalled five-eighth Jack Cogger both scoring two tries.

Newcastle gets a huge boost with Origin centre Bradman Best returning, allowing Dylan Lucas to go to the back-row for an injured Kai Pearce-Paul. Brodie Jones starts for Tyson Frizell (concussion) with Thomas Cant joining the interchange.

The Titans’ compelling bid to make a late finals charge has unravelled, conceding 124 points in losing their last three games against the Sharks, Dragons and Roosters. There was at least some attacking enterprise in a 48-22 loss to the Roosters last Sunday, with Alofiana Khan-Pereira scoring three tries.

Phil Sami takes the place of AJ Brimson in the centres in the Titans’ sole change.

The Knights have won four of their last five against the Titans, including a 28-24 thriller in Magic Round this season. Meanwhile, the Titans have not won in Newcastle since 2016.

Newcastle remains an unconvincing proposition. But the Knights have done a fair job of putting a score on struggling teams and should be favoured to get the job done against a Titans team that has regressed to old defensive habits.

Tip: Back Over 50.5 Total Points @ $1.90

SGM: KNIGHTS -9.5 / TITANS OVER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / FLETCHER SHARPE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KALYN PONGA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOJO FIFITA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $39.47

Potentially the match of the round, Sydney Roosters will be hellbent on retaining their recently acquired grip on second spot, while Canberra Raiders must win to have any chance of staying in the hectic scramble for eighth.

The Roosters have won eight of their last nine games, scoring 34-plus points in winning four straight against Manly, the Dolphins, Parramatta and Gold Coast.

The 48-22 cruise against the Titans featured an Angus Crichton hat-trick but came at a cost injury- and suspension-wise.

Joseph Sua’ali’i (neck) and the suspended Jared Waerea-Hargreaves are out, but Connor Watson and Brandon Smith return. Michael Jennings will line up in the centres, Spencer Leniu starts at prop and Naufahu Whyte joins the bench.

Bouncing back from a three-match losing run that culminated in a horrible 42-4 loss to the Cowboys, the Raiders earned a thrilling 22-18 season-saver over the Panthers at home.

Xavier Savage scored two tries, including the late match-winner from a Matt Timoko intercept.

The Roosters have won seven of their last 11 against the Roosters, including a 44-16 beatdown in Canberra in Round 12 with James Tedesco and Joey Manu both grabbing doubles. Conversely, the Raiders have won all three of the teams’ encounters in Sydney since the 2019 NRL grand final.

It’s not too hard to envisage the Raiders getting blown out here and they are 15.5-point underdogs. But if the visitors can carry the resolve they displayed last week – and in recent performances like their narrow away loss to the Bulldogs – the Roosters could be in for a torrid afternoon.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+15.5) @ $1.90

SGM: ROOSTERS BY 1-12 / UNDER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / XAVIER SAVAGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $30.27