NRL Round 4 gets underway on Thursday with South Sydney and Penrith both striving to get back in the winner’s circle, while Friday’s docket sees Gold Coast attempting to make it two in a row at Sydney Roosters’ expense and the Dolphins looking to get off the mark in a huge derby.  

Elsewhere, winless St George Illawarra and North Queensland have daunting home assignments, Cronulla and Canterbury square off in a Saturday night blockbuster, Manly are hot favourites to compound Parramatta’s 0-3 start, and Wests Tigers and the Warriors are shooting for three straight. 

South Sydney received a reality check last week and will be looking to regroup against a Penrith side that has suffered another big injury blow.  

The Rabbitohs followed up consecutive nail-biting wins over the Dolphins and St George Illawarra with a convincing 27-12 loss at Cronulla, conceding five unanswered tries in the first 45 minutes before stemming the flow of points.  

Veteran winger Alex Johnston makes his return from a long layoff in time to replace Campbell Graham, with Isaiah Tass moving to centre.  

The Panthers lost Nathan Cleary early in last week’s grand final rematch in Melbourne and trailed 14-0, but they showed tremendous heart to stay in the contest and only go down 30-24. The four-time premiers are now looking to avoid three straight losses for the first time since 2019.  

Trent Toelau comes in at halfback for Cleary, while late Round 3 withdrawal Daine Laurie returns at fullback with Dylan Edwards still sidelined. Tom Jenkins will line up at centre and Paul Alamoti starts on the wing.  

Penrith have won 12 of their last 14 against Souths, including the 2021 grand final. It was one-way traffic last season with the Panthers winning 42-12 at Accor Stadium and 34-12 at Penrith; Luke Garner scored three tries across the two games.  

The Rabbitohs need to take advantage of the gulf in halves experience, with Toelau and Jack Cole starting just eight NRL games between them – which means Cody Walker has to stand up. The presence of Isaah Yeo and co. sees the champs installed as $1.30 favourites, but shapes as a tight one.  

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / UNDER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / JYE GRAY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / IZACK TAGO ANYTIME TRYSCORERE @ $44.12 

Sydney Roosters were brought back to earth in Round 3 via a bruising trip to Auckland, while Gold Coast turned things around last week after a ragged season-opening display. The teams will both be fired up to chalk up a second win for 2025 this Friday.  

A week after a stunning 38-32 upset of Penrith, the Roosters were worn down 14-6 by the Warriors. They created enough chances to win comfortably but ball control let them down at crucial times and they were ultimately outmuscled through the middle.  

Zach Dockar-Clay will start at hooker for Connor Watson (concussion), while Nat Butcher and Lindsay Collins are back from injury with Makahesi Makatoa dropping out.  

Handed a bye in Round 1, the Titans were caught on the back foot in a 40-24 defeat to Canterbury at Belmore but produced a polar-opposite defensive display to shut down Kalyn Ponga and put Newcastle to the sword 26-6 at home.  

Keano Kini (neck) has been ruled out, which sees Jaylan de Groot make his second NRL appearance at fullback in the Titans’ only change.  

The Roosters have won their last 11 against the Titans, including a 48-22 blowout on the Gold Coast in their only clash last season. This is their first encounter in Sydney since 2020, with the Titans searching for their first win at Allianz Stadium since 2013.  

The Titans are still lacking a bit of polish and direction without a genuine No.7, but the Roosters are having their own problems as the Chad Townsend-Sandon Smith combination gels.  

The forward battle should be a beauty with world-class rep stars abounding in both line-ups, but the Roosters have won seven of their last nine at Allianz while the Titans are just 2-8 interstate since the start of 2024.  

Tip: Back the Roosters to Win by 1-12 Points @ $3.00 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 12.5 POINTS / ANGUS CHRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DOM YOUNG & JOJO FIFITA TO HAVE 2+ TRIES COMBINED @ $14.90 

The fifth instalment of what has already become a massive local derby sees the Dolphins at a difficult early-season juncture, while Brisbane Broncos are slowly building a strong platform despite an up-and-down start.  

The Dolphins are 0-3, following up losses away to Souths and Newcastle with a gut-wrenching collapse against Wests Tigers at Redcliffe, losing 30-18 after racing to an 18-6 lead.  

Aside from losing the yardage battle as the impact of Jesse Bromwich’s retirement sinks in, the Dolphins aren’t getting enough from one of the more talented spine quartets in the NRL.  

The Broncos bounced back from a tough road trip to Canberra by holding off a plucky Cowboys outfit 26-16 at Suncorp, with Payne Haas and Adam Reynolds outstanding.  

Kotoni Staggs’ return is a big boost for the Broncos, forcing Deine Mariner out of the side in the Broncos’ sole change.  

After hard-fought losses in the first three Brisbane derbies, the Dolphins got off the mark by humiliating the Broncos 40-6 at Suncorp Stadium in the penultimate round last season.  

But plenty has changed in the six months since that clash, including coaching overhauls at both clubs.  

Reece Walsh produced a mixed bag last week after his shocker in the capital, but the mercurial No.1 should have a field day against this Dolphins side – and Payne Haas will be licking his lips at the prospect of taking on a pack that has failed to measure up.  

Tip: Back the Broncos to Score Over 31.5 Points @ $1.87 

SGM: BRONCOS BY 21-30 / OVER 50.5 TOTAL POINTS / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $18.52 

St George Illawarra come off the bye searching for a maiden win in 2025, while unbeaten Melbourne is still counting the cost of a thrilling grand final rematch victory.  

The Saints went down 28-20 to Canterbury in Round 1 after a spirited late fight-back, while they blew a 12-point lead to go down 25-24 to Souths a week later – and coach Shane Flanagan could barely contain his disappointment in his halves.  

On the bright side, Clint Gutherson has proved an outstanding acquisition, and big winger Christian Tuipolotu already has four tries.  

A new-look Dragons bench sees David Klemmer make his club debut and Dylan Egan play his first NRL game. Toby Couchman moves into the starting team, with Blake Lawrie and Raymond Faitala-Mariner dropped.  

Melbourne bookended the Round 2 bye with a demolition of Parramatta and a rollercoaster 30-24 Thursday night win over depleted Penrith, which has cost them Jahrome Hughes (broken hand) and Nick Meaney (broken jaw) for significant stints.  

Tyran Wishart is a more than handy replacement for Hughes, while Grant Anderson moves to Meaney’s centre spot with Will Warbrick back from concussion on the wing. Lazarus Vaalepu replaces Nelson Asofa-Solomona (concussion) and Bronson Garlick takes the bench utility spot.  

The Dragons have had more than their share of recent success against the Storm, winning four of the teams’ last 10 encounters. They pulled off a shock 18-16 victory at AAMI Park in Round 22 last year. The Saints have also won the clubs’ last two clashes at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium.  

The Storm still have a clear advantage in the engine-room department, as well as three-quarters of their blue-chip spine, but this is nevertheless an opportunity for the Dragons to spring a boilover – or at least see some improvement a confidence-boosting loss – if they can stay on task for 80 minutes.  

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+9.5) @ $1.94 

SGM: STORM BY 1-12 / UNDER 50.5 TOTAL POINTS / WILL WARBRICK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CHRISTIAN TUIPOLOTU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $19.62 

North Queensland heads into Round 4 winless but showed some signs of life last week, while Canberra is smarting from its first loss of 2025 as they confront a rivalry hoodoo.  

The Cowboys are on a six-match winning streak against the Raiders, including dominant wins in Canberra (34-16) and Townsville (42-4) last season. Perhaps tellingly, the departed Valentine Holmes and Kyle Feldt scored eight of the Cowboys’ 13 tries across those two games, however.  

After insipid losses to Manly and Cronulla, the Cowboys showed some backbone in a 26-16 defeat to Brisbane – fighting back from 12-0 down to level the scores before being trumped by the Broncos’ big guns.  

The Raiders were the toast of the NRL after sizzling wins over the Warriors and Broncos, but there trip to Manly last Sunday swung on a no-try ruling and the sin-binning of Corey Horsburgh. When the fiery prop returned, the score had gone from nil-all to 24-0 with the Raiders eventually going down 40-12. 

The Raiders welcome Joe Tapine back from suspension, which sees Horsburgh shift to lock and Trey Mooney go to the bench. Morgan Smithies is out with concussion.  

Canberra have now lost five of their last seven away games and will be eager to respond to the Round 3 blowout at Brookvale. North Queensland will take plenty of confidence from the derby defeat but the value lies with the visitors in a pick ’em.  

Tip: Back the Raiders to Win @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $25.13 

What almost certainly be the match of the round has some of the sting taken out of it by Canterbury’s marquee absentees, which sees in-form Cronulla head into this home clash as $1.26 favourites.  

The Sharks have used a spirited Vegas loss to Penrith as a springboard to put North Queensland (36-12) and South Sydney (27-12) to the sword.  

They put the cue in the rack early against the Rabbitohs after leading 26-0 early in the second half, but Craig Fitzgibbon’s side looks every bit the top-four team so far with Addin Fonua-Blake adding a new dimension and the likes of Kayal Iro continuing to grow in stature.  

Tom Hazelton (back) returns in time to replace Braden Hamlin-Uele (knee) in the Sharks’ only change.  

The Bulldogs put away St George Illawarra (28-20) and Gold Coast (40-24) comfortably, but with Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau out they struggled to subdue battling Parramatta before getting away with a 16-8 result in a physical encounter.  

The Sharks have won 12 of their last 15 against the Bulldogs, but the blue-and-whites snapped a six-match losing run in the rivalry with a stirring 15-14 golden point win…via a Burton field goal.  

They’ll need to do a similar defensive job on the Sharks here with points likely to be at a premium for the Bulldogs without two of their strike players. The Sharks are 8-3 at their home ground since the start of last season and look the goods to get up here.  

Tip: Back Sharks Win / Under 47.5 Total Points Double @ $2.40 

SGM: SHARKS BY 11-20 / BULLDOGS UNDER 17.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRITON NIKORA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KAYAL IRO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $54.16 

One of the NRL’s traditional grudge matches sees Manly flying high but navigating the Daly Cherry-Evans bombshell, while Parramatta are languishing at the foot of the ladder without a win.  

The Sea Eagles bookended a disappointing 36-16 loss in Auckland in Round 2 with blistering home wins over North Queensland (42-12) and Canberra (40-12) – though the latter was aided by a couple of sliding door moments.  

Reuben Garrick scored four tries against the Raiders and Haumole Olakau’atu was untouchable again. The Sea Eagles will be preoccupied with ensuring the DCE news does not become a distraction, however.  

Tom Trbojevic (hamstring) is back on deck for Manly after being left out as a precaution last week, with Clayton Faulalo making way as Lehi Hopoate goes back to the wing. A devastating Achilles blow for Taniela Paseka allows Nathan Brown to grab a place in the 17.  

Parramatta at least showed some heart in a 16-8 loss to Canterbury after getting shellacked by Melbourne and Wests Tigers, conceding 88 points in the first two rounds.  

Isaiah Iongi is coming along at fullback, Zac Lomax has been inspirational and Josh Addo-Carr adds immediate class and strike, but the polish and direction in the halves is just not there with Mitch Moses out – which is piling pressure on Newcastle-bound Dylan Brown.  

Winger Sean Russell and interchange forward Daniel Keir come in for Jordan Samrani and Sam Tuivaiti, respectively.  

The teams have split their last 10 meetings five wins apiece and honours were shared in 2024. Parramatta grabbed a 28-24 win at home in Round 3, while Manly turned the tables 32-18 at 4 Pines Park five weeks later.  

The Sea Eagles will benefit from another heaving home crowd in this one, making it very difficult for the Eels to reverse their horror start to 2025. If the hosts are on song, this scoreline could be anything.  

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Score Over 35.5 Total Points @ $1.80 

SGM: SEA EAGLES -18.5 / UNDER 54.5 TOTAL POINTS / LEHI HOPOATE TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $42.97 

Wests Tigers and the Warriors are both coming off back-to-back wins after suffering Round 1 defeats – and both clubs are aiming to go 3-1 for just the fifth time in their respective chequered histories.  

The Tigers moved on from a first-up loss to Newcastle at Campbelltown with a 32-6 rout of Parramatta and a 30-18 comeback win over the Dolphins after trailing by 12 in Redcliffe.  

Terrell May is in the NRL’s buy of the season conversation already and the Tigers’ all-star spine will only get better together, but it’s the defensive improvement in Benji Marshall’s side that has been the most striking difference to the triple-wooden spooners make-up.  

The Warriors have put their Vegas disaster in the rearview mirror with a pair of rousing home wins over Manly (36-16) and Sydney Roosters (14-6).  

Their attack needs work – and Luke Metcalf was very quiet against the Roosters – but they have been outstanding without the ball in the past fortnight, while the likes of Ali Leiataua and Leka Halasima provide X-factor in spades, and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Wayde Egan have been immense.  

The Warriors have been forced into their first line-up change of the season with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck succumbing to a hamstring injury. Centre Rocco Berry (shoulder) is back for his first NRL game since June and Adam Pompey starts on the wing at NRL level for the first time since 2022.  

The Warriors have won the teams’ last seven encounters dating back to 2020, including a 28-16 result at Mount Smart last season.  

The Tigers have won four of their last five at Campbelltown against the Warriors. The Warriors have been the victims in three of only nine Tigers wins at the venue in 30 games since 2015.  

But if the Warriors can strangle the Tigers’ pack and cut down their playmakers’ time – as they’ve done to their opponents so effectively in the past two rounds – they are a compelling outsider in what should be a gripping, low-scoring Sunday night showdown.  

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: WARRIORS WIN / UNDER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALI LEIATAUA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / API KOROISAU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $49.29 

2024

The high attrition rate among NRL No.7s again clouds a bumper schedule of Easter weekend match-ups in Round 4. 

Nathan Cleary is out of Thursday’s potential grand final preview against the Roosters, while Mitch Moses’ absence opens the door for the Tigers to go back-to-back in Monday’s traditional clash. 

All eyes are on the battling Bunnies as they line up for their standing Good Friday date with the Bulldogs, while there’s three Queensland derbies, crucial clashes at Wollongong and Cronulla, and a daunting trip across the Tasman for the Knights. 

Nathan Cleary’s hamstring injury takes a bit of the sting out of Penrith’s showdown with in-form heavyweights Sydney Roosters, who are eyeing off a turnaround in what has become a lopsided rivalry. 

The Roosters are on an eight-match losing streak against the Panthers, conceding more than 30 points on average.

Last season’s clashes – just four weeks apart – resulted in a 48-4 rout at Penrith and a 30-6 beatdown at Allianz Stadium. 

Both teams are 2-1, the Roosters bouncing back from a 21-14 loss at Manly with a 48-6 obliteration of struggling archrivals Souths last Friday. 

Sam Walker and Joey Manu bagged doubles, James Tedesco had two line-break assists to go with his two tries and Dom Young sizzled in his second match in the Tricolours, racking up 12 tackle-breaks, two try assists and the opening try. 

Luke Keary returns for the Roosters, squeezing Sandon Smith out of the side with Connor Watson retained on the bench.

Lindsay Collins (hamstring) misses this game with Terrell May to start and Egan Butcher coming onto the bench. 

Following a hard-fought win over Parramatta, the Panthers toyed with an injury-ravaged Brisbane in a 34-12 result last Thursday.

Cleary put on a playmaking masterclass, Izack Tago and Brian To’o scored two tries each, and Dylan Edwards ran for over 300 metres. 

Cleary will be replaced by ex-Raider Brad Schneider, while Scott Sorensen (knee) also joins James Fisher-Harris on the sidelines for the premiers, Luke Garner will start with Mavrik Geyer to debut off the bench. 

The Panthers are no strangers to forging on without Cleary and have won 16 of their last 20 matches with the linchpin missing, including four of five in 2023.

But it’s a big ask for Schneider on club debut in his 13th NRL game with Jarome Luai, fairly quiet so far, the player who needs to pick up the slack. 

It’s still Penrith – and both sides are missing blue-chip middle forwards – but the Roosters are in the box-seat to snare a drought-breaking W and build on a 8-3 record at Allianz Stadium since its late-2022 reopening. 

Tip: Back the Roosters to Win by 1-12 @ $2.70 

SGM: ROOSTERS WIN / OVER 39.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRANDON SMITH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TAYLAN MAY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $32.85 

South Sydney is in crisis mode, desperate for its first win of the season against a Canterbury side coming into the traditional Good Friday clash at Homebush off a confidence-boosting victory. 

The defensive danger signs were evident in the opening two rounds in losses to Manly and Brisbane, but the Rabbitohs’ 48-6 capitulation to the Roosters last Friday was one of the club’s weakest performances since their 2002 readmission, given the calibre of their roster. 

Axing misfiring halfback Lachlan Ilias made little difference, with the remainder of Souths’ big-name spine continuing to underperform.

Another underwhelming display from a highly-regarded pack was another big contributor to their 12th loss in 16 games, a run in which they’ve leaked 30 points a game. 

Souths’ only changes see Siliva Havili and Sean Keppie drop out of the 17 in favour of Michael Chee Kam and Shaquai Mitchell. 

Canterbury showed genuine grit – if a lack of attacking prowess – in losses to Parramatta and Cronulla, before finally getting the chance to show what they can do with the ball against an atrocious opponent in a 32-0 rout of Gold Coast. 

The Bulldogs’ back-five ran roughshod, while the destructive Viliame Kikau and Reed Mahoney arguably had their best games since arriving at the club last year. 

Canterbury capitalised on an Origin-depleted Souths to win 36-32 in Round 19 last year – ending a five-match losing streak in the rivalry – with Blake Wilson scoring a hat-trick. 

The Rabbitohs romped to their fifth straight Good Friday victory over the Bulldogs 50-16 last year, Latrell Mitchell racking up 26 points from three tries and seven goals. 

There’s been little for Souths to hang their hat on in the 12 months since, however, and the $1.48 favourites – or more specifically coach Jason Demetriou – are in a very tight spot.

They’re also on a seven-match losing streak in Sydney. 

Without getting too carried away with their steamrolling of the dreadful Titans, the Bulldogs look the clear value pick here – as does the over with the Rabbitohs’ matches averaging totals of 53.3 points so far in 2024. 

Tip: Back Over 41.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: BULLDOGS +6.5 / BULLDOGS OVER 16.5 TOTAL POINTS / BLAKE WILSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $12.99 

Brisbane’s high-profile casualty ward overshadows this massive Good Friday derby against the NRL’s only unbeaten team, though there’s a Team List Tuesday reprieve for the hosts. 

Adam Reynolds returns in a huge boost for the Broncos, while Tristan Sailor is as good a fullback replacement as you could hope for with Reece Walsh sidelined.

Brendan Piakura is out, which sees Jaiyden Hunt come into the back-row and Corey Oates get a bench call-up. Martin Taupau drops out. 

The 1-2 Broncos understandably struggled after Walsh’s early exit at Penrith – compounding the absence of Reynolds and Payne Haas – but there was a silver lining in the 34-12 loss as they kept their line intact for the last half hour and scored the last two tries. 

This match will be the biggest test so far for the Cowboys, who have powered to a 3-0 record amid a pretty soft draw.

After thrashing the Dolphins 43-18, they got out of jail at home to Newcastle in golden point then recovered from a 14-point deficit to overwhelm St George Illawarra 46-24 in Sydney. 

Two wins on the road is a handy result for Todd Payten’s side, but conceding 21 points a game to three mid- to lower-level teams is an area that needs shoring up.

A late withdrawal in Round 3, the impressive Zac Laybutt returns in the centres for the Cowboys. 

After losing four of the previous five derbies, the Broncos won both in 2023 – 28-16 in Brisbane and 30-14 in Townsville.

Walsh was crucial to both, dotting down in both games and featuring heavily in Dally M voting, while Ezra Mam scored three tries across the two games. 

Seven of the teams’ last eight clashes produced 44-plus points, the Cowboys’ freewheeling attack combined with their patchy defence suggest the over is a sound play again. 

The slightest of underdogs, the Broncos’ front-row contingent – with Fletcher Baker and Corey Jensen starting, and Xavier Willison and Kobe Hetherington coming off the bench – has a huge assignment in front them. 

If they can’t earn an even share of the territory battle for their side, the likes of in-form Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden will light up Suncorp Stadium. 

Tip: Back Over 41.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: COWBOYS WIN / BRONCOS OVER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $28.78 

Manly coach Anthony Seibold goes head-to-head with his 2023 assistant, new St George Illawarra mentor Shane Flanagan, in a pivotal Saturday afternoon showdown. 

Following wins over high-profile rivals Souths and Sydney Roosters in the opening fortnight, the Sea Eagles suffered their first loss of the season in a 28-24 thriller at Parramatta last Sunday. 

Despite giving up a 14-0 lead, there was plenty to take out of a high-quality match for Manly. Tom Trbojevic, Haumole Olakau’atu and a reborn Luke Brooks have hit the ground running, and seemingly thin outside-back and front-row contingents are holding their own. 

Crunch time is rolling around for the Dragons, meanwhile, after leaking 84 points in two games since beginning the Flanagan era with a 28-4 win over a Gold Coast side of very questionable mettle. 

The Saints suffered a jarring 38-0 away loss to the Dolphins, then blew an 18-4 lead in a 46-24 home defeat to the Cowboys. 

Francis Molo, Jacob Liddle, Jaydn Su’A and Hame Sele all return for the Dragons; Connor Muhleisen, Michael Molo, Viliami Fifita and Ben Murdoch-Masila are out of the 17 and the Sea Eagles are unchanged. 

The clubs’ last six games were split three apiece, with Manly taking out the sole 2023 encounter 24-18 in Round 22 at Wollongong – which has been anything but a fortress for the Dragons, losing five of their last six games there against all comers. 

Manly’s form to date has been streets ahead of the Saints’. If they are to be top-four contenders, these are the games the Sea Eagles have to ice – and they should comfortably. 

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (-9.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: SEA EAGLES BY 11-20 / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LUKE BROOKS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $50.45 

While all the scrutiny is on South Sydney, no team has been worse so far in 2024 than Gold Coast – and a home clash with the Dolphins on Saturday already feels like make or break for a teetering campaign. 

The Titans produced a limp 28-4 home loss to the Dragons and a diabolical 32-0 defeat to the Bulldogs, bottom-four battlers last year who lost their other two games by 18-plus, either side of the Round 2 bye. 

Compounding matters, skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui has been ruled out for the year with an ACL injury – the worst-case scenario for a strong pack on paper that has woefully underperformed.

Des Hasler’s Titans are now the outright wooden spoon favourites. 

Jayden Campbell makes a welcome return at fullback for Keano Kini, while Keenan Palasia will start at prop for Fa’asuamaleaui with Joe Stimson joining the bench. 

The Dolphins come off the bye at 1-1, recovering from a ragged 43-18 season-opening loss to the Cowboys by thrashing the Dragons 38-0. 

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow bounced back from a Round 1 meltdown with three tries, but it would have been the defensive turnaround – conceding less than 10 points for the first time in their brief history – that would have most pleased Dolphins coach Wayne Bennett. 

Ray Stone is back from concussion at Jarrod Wallace’s expense in the Dolphins’ only change from Round 2. 

The Dolphins won both thrilling derbies in 2023 to kick off their rivalry with the Titans.

They equalled the premiership record for the biggest comeback in Round 8 at Suncorp – recovering from 26-0 down to win 28-26 – and prevailed 23-21 in golden point on the Gold Coast in Round 19. 

Campbell could provide the spark to ignite a Titans offence that has shown nothing so far under Hasler, but they are impossible to get behind at present and the Dolphins are irresistible value as $1.70 favourites. 

Tip: Back the Dolphins to Win @ $1.70 

SGM: DOLPHINS BY OVER 6.5 POINTS / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAMAYNE ISAAKO TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $22.28 

Newcastle return to Auckland for the first time since their season-ending 40-10 finals loss to the red-hot Warriors in September. 

Both teams got off the mark for 2024 last weekend with tight, scrappy home wins: the Warriors 18-10 over Canberra in Christchurch and Newcastle 14-12 against an injury-ravaged Melbourne. 

The Warriors’ performance was arguably their poorest to date after narrow losses to Cronulla and Melbourne, but importantly nonetheless and led by strong performances from Tohu Harris, Mitch Barnett, Addin Fonua-Blake and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak with several key players sidelined. 

Big changes for the Warriors with Wayde Egan named to return (though he was listed before being a late withdrawal the past two weeks) along with Dylan Walker, and Marata Niukore named for the first time in 2024. 

After scoring the match-sealing solo try last week, Tuivasa-Sheck will start at fullback with Taine Tuaupiki (head knock) ruled out, which sees Adam Pompey get a recall at centre. 

The Knights’ start to the year has been less auspicious, awful in a Round 1 home loss to Canberra before blowing a lead in a golden point defeat in Townsville.

They held on against a Storm side missing both first-choice halves and their best prop, with Kalyn Ponga adding the necessary touches of class. 

Leo Thompson (suspension) is a big out for the Knights; Daniel Saifiti will start and Brodie Jones joins the interchange. Jack Cogger remains in the No.7 at Jackson Hastings’ expense. 

The Knights won the teams’ Easter Sunday clash in Newcastle last year 34-24, but they have won just two of their last 16 in New Zealand. 

The Warriors have been a metre-eating machine over the first three rounds, which will only amplify with RTS at the back and Niukore returning against a Knights side without the bruising Thompson and the blue-chip wingers that were so prominent in their late-2023 charge. 

Egan’s potential reinjection would lubricate a Shaun Johnson-led Warriors offence that hasn’t quite fired consistently. 

If the Knights can’t get into the grind early, they’ll get blown off Mt Smart in the same manner as that one-sided semi.

The Warriors have won eight of 11 at their home base since returning to New Zealand, with six victories by seven points or more. 

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Games Handicap (-6.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: WARRIORS WIN / OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / ADAM POMPEY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACKSON FORD ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $30.24 

A pair of 2023 finalists who initially exceeded expectations by going 2-0 are looking to regroup after their respective first losses of the season in Round 3. 

Cronulla got its campaign underway with hard-nosed wins over the Warriors in Auckland and the Bulldogs at home – conceding just three tries total – but had no answer for a fired-up Wests Tigers at Leichhardt, capitulating 32-6 to the dual wooden spooners. 

The Sharks’ pack has been decimated with Dale Finucane, Toby Rudolf and Royce Hunt all injured.

Siosifa Talakai shifts to the second-row with Kayal Iro getting a run at centre, and Jack Williams shifting to a bench that includes new faces Daniel Atkinson and Tuku Hau Tapuha. 

Widely tipped for a slide towards bottom-four territory in 2024, Canberra has been a surprise packet with convincing wins in Newcastle and at home to Wests Tigers (their two biggest winning margins since 2022) and a gutsy 18-10 loss to the Warriors in Christchurch. 

The Raiders showed tremendous resolve to only trail 6-4 at halftime and were unlucky not to build a bigger lead, before conceding two tries in three minutes consigned them to an honourable defeat. Blockbusting centre Matt Timoko was close to the best player on the field. 

Ata Mariota comes back on the Canberra bench for Emre Guler, while James Schiller replaces an unavailable Albert Hopoate on the wing with Nick Cotric dropped and Seb Kris returning at centre. 

A 24-6 home win in the final round last year saw the Sharks snap a nine-match losing run against the Raiders and five of their last 10 clashes were decided by five points or less.

The Sharks have won seven of their last 10 overall at their home ground. 

But it’s a monumental task this weekend for a Cronulla middle-forward contingent up against a stacked Canberra pack. The same defensive attitude that has marked their performances over the first three rounds will be enough to go very close to a road upset on Sunday night. 

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: RAIDERS WIN / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / RONALDO MULITALO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAMES SCHILLER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $28.89 

The traditional Easter Monday clash entails plenty of intrigue with Parramatta reeling from a medium-term injury to Mitchell Moses and Wests Tigers coming off a stirring maiden win in the Benji Marshall era. 

The 2-1 Eels have bookended a spirited loss at Penrith with a Round 1 cruise against Canterbury and a thrilling 28-24 victory over Manly after trailing 14-0. Moses was the star of the win, however, and leaves a sizeable hole. 

Blaize Talagi is the surprise choice to partner Dylan Brown in the halves after debuting at centre last week, while Maika Sivo is back from suspension for his first game of 2024 with Morgan Harper reverting to centre. 

After an opening-round bye, the Tigers responded to a disappointing 32-12 loss in Canberra with a shock 32-6 rout of Cronulla in front of a baying Leichhardt Oval throng. 

Api Koroisau put on a masterclass, Justin Olam was sensational on club debut, and young guns Jahream Bula, Lachie Galvin and Stefano Utoikamanu followed the veterans’ lead.

The Tigers’ only change sees a concussed Alex Twal replaced on the interchange by Asu Kepaoa. 

Parramatta has won nine of its last 10 against Wests Tigers, the exception being an amazing 21-20 victory on Easter Monday in 2022 with Jackson Hastings landed a last-gasp field goal for the Tigers. 

Last year’s corresponding match was their only 2023 meeting, the Eels holding on 28-22 against a winless Tigers outfit.

None of their last 11 meetings have produced a total lower than 41 points. 

The Tigers have a gruelling assignment containing the Eels’ robust, skilful forwards like J’Maine Hopgood and Bryce Cartwright, as well as Junior Paulo and RCG up front, but the Moses factor and last week’s confidence-boosting display suggests another tight one between the Sydney rivals. 

Tip: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / OVER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / JUNIOR TUPOU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SHAUN LANE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $51.21 

2022

A grand final replay headlines the NRL Round 4 docket, while chastened Queensland outfits the Titans and Broncos get a gilt-edged opportunity to bounce back against battling opposition.

In-form Cronulla and North Queensland shoot for three straight wins in fascinating home fixtures, while Canterbury and St George Illawarra are aiming to avoid three consecutive losses on their Sunday road trips.

Despite the close nature of the premiership so far, there’s eight clear favourites – but plenty of value on offer.

Gold Coast is Round 4’s second-shortest favourites as it prepares to host beleaguered Wests Tigers, but the Titans are at an intriguing early crossroads.

Impressive in a narrow loss to the Eels first up, the Titans struggled to put away a depleted Warriors outfit in Round 2 then blew a 22-0 point lead in Canberra last Saturday – the equal-worst collapse in the club’s history.

Defence always shaped as Justin Holbrook’s chief work-on for 2022 and the Titans have conceded the most points in the NRL across the first three rounds.

Gold Coast has also lost fullback Jayden Campbell (rib), though recent pick-up Jamayne Isaako is a handy replacement. Meanwhile, Corey Thompson returns from injury in the place of COVID-hit Phillip Sami.

The Tigers are the only 0-3 team in the competition and went from bad to appalling last Friday, crashing 16-12 to a Warriors outfit that wasn’t much better and unable to capitalise on a late sin-binning. Daine Laurie had an absolute howler at fullback but should bounce back.

On a positive note, centre Oliver Gildart had a blinder and plucky No.6 fill-in Jock Madden was the best half on the field. The injuries keep piling up with impressive prop Stefano Utoikamanu likely to out for some time.

Ken Maumalo and James Roberts have been named to return – though it’s dubious whether they are better value than the players they’re bumping out of the backline.

The Titans have won seven of their last nine against the Tigers, with Sami scoring a double in a 36-28 victory at Campbelltown last season.

If the hosts can put anything near 80 minutes of half-decent footy together, they should get up relatively comfortably. But the Tigers are getting plenty of points at the line and the backs-to-the-wall factor can keep them in the contest.

Tip: Back Brian Kelly Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.20

SGM: TIGERS +11.5 / TITANS/TITANS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / OVER 42.5 POINTS / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $22.31

Cronulla has laid its Top 8 credentials on the table over the past fortnight, backing up an after-the-bell upset of Parramatta with an authoritative 36-12 derby defeat of St George Illawarra in the wet.

Any suggestion Nicho Hynes would struggle outside the Storm system has been wiped away – the halfback was sensational against the Dragons and appears comfortable in his role as the Sharks’ linchpin.

Siosifa Talakai was shaded for man-of-the-match honours by Hynes but will shift to the centres for the injured Connor Tracey with Round 2 hero Teig Wilton returning from suspension. Ronaldo Mulitalo is also back on deck with winger Matt Ikavalu out.

Newcastle’s unbeaten start came unstuck in Bathurst, going down 38-20 to Penrith after being forced to play the last hour with 12 men. But the Knights were well in the fight until then and showed real grit to keep it respectable, scoring three tries while a man down and trailing by just eight until the last five minutes.

Mitch Barnett’s brain snap has cost the Knights pack one of its most effective contributors, but his absence allows Brodie Jones to return to the 17. Kalyn Ponga has been named and will likely play, despite being a late withdrawal for the past two games.

Playing so well without their marquee fullback is a key indicator that the 2022 Knights may be the real deal.

The Knights are on a four-match winning streak against the Sharks, getting up narrowly in Newcastle (26-22) and Redcliffe (16-14) last season. This promises to be another tight encounter with several mouth-watering match-ups across the park.

Cronulla has improved significantly each week and take the slightest of edges into this home fixture.

Tip: Back the Sharks to win by 1-10 @ $3.00

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 10.5 POINTS / UNDER 38.5 POINTS / SHARKS FIRST TEAM TO SCORE A TRY / SIONE KATOA ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $11.54

South Sydney Rabbitohs found their early-season bearings just in time for a blockbuster grand final replay against Penrith Panthers, who have named injured linchpin Nathan Cleary for the first time in 2022.

Souths recovered from narrow but disappointing losses to Brisbane and Melbourne with a convincing 28-16 victory over the Roosters. Skipper Cameron Murray was phenomenal, while Cody Walker and Damien Cook came to life, and Latrell Mitchell’s influence was key.

The Panthers are the only 3-0 team and barely needed to get out of second gear in a 38-20 defeat of a 12-man Newcastle side. Taylan May replaced gun winger Brian To’o and scored three tries in his second NRL game as the Penrith production line continues to produce the goods.

Breakout centre Izack Tago grabbed another couple of tries, while Isaah Yeo has scooped three Dally M votes in all three games. It’s scary to imagine the level the Panthers are capable of getting to with Cleary returning to steer this juggernaut.

While the grand final result provides the premiers with an undoubted psychological edge, the Rabbitohs won’t be buying into any sort of hoodoo talk – they upset the Panthers in week one of the 2021 finals.

Souths have won five of their last eight at Panthers Stadium, but Penrith has won its last 18 matches straight at home – including seven by margins of 18-plus in nine games since the start of 2021.

Both teams are conceding at a rate of 14 points per match so far but the Panthers’ razor-sharp attack is a cut above. The Rabbitohs are still finding their feet with a rookie halfback and under a new coach and are not yet up to this challenge.

Tip: Back Panthers to Win and Under 38.5 Points @ $2.50

SGM: PANTHERS 1-12 / PANTHERS OVER 22.5 POINTS / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $11.62

The Warriors got off the mark for 2022 in overwhelmingly unimpressive style, bumbling their way to a 16-12 victory over Wests Tigers characterised by errors, poor decision-making and even worse execution on both sides of the ball. The ‘a win’s a win’ cliché even seems too generous.

Jack Murchie comes onto the Warriors’ bench for Bayley Sironen in the only change to their 17, though Shaun Johnson is listed in the reserves to provide a glimmer of hope for a side badly lacking attacking impetus and direction in the halves.

Meanwhile, Brisbane’s rousing start to the season came undone in a 38-12 derby defeat to North Queensland. It seemed only a matter of time before the Broncos gained some ascendancy but it just never eventuated.

Adam Reynolds had a rare shocker, Kotoni Staggs’ lack of involvement is becoming frustrating and their absence of defensive resolve near their line was alarming. Kurt Capewell (calf) has been named in the reserves while Jordan Riki (ribs) is under a cloud. Thomas Flegler and TC Robati are back in the 17.

The Broncos edged the Warriors 24-22 in a helter-skelter late-season clash in Brisbane last year. Neither side has managed more than 28 points in their last 13 meetings.

The key will be some sort of thrust and game-management from the halves – and if Johnson doesn’t return, the Warriors could be in real trouble in that department based on last week’s offering from Kodi Nikorima and Chanel Harris-Tavita. Expect a big game from Reynolds.

The Warriors’ pack has started the year strongly and can match Payne Haas and co., but their three-quarter line is in all sorts and are severely outmatched on paper.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: BRONCOS WIN / OVER 42.5 POINTS / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRY SCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $10.71

Manly capitalised on playing an NRL lightweight for the first time in 2022 – but only just, squeaking past Canterbury 13-12 on the back of a late Daly Cherry-Evans field goal. But DCE’s overall display and Tom Trbojevic’s return to form were major positives for the out-of-sorts Sea Eagles.

At 22-0 down at home to the Gold Coast following a 20-point loss in Townsville a week earlier, pundits were preparing to draw a thick red line through Canberra’s Top 8 ambitions.

But the embattled, injury-hit Raiders rallied to beat the Titans 24-22 in a club-record-equalling comeback inspired by spine game-breakers Jack Wighton and Tom Starling. Brad Schneider is 2-0 starting in the lime green No.7 and looks a cool-headed customer. Centre Matthew Timoko is a rising star.

The Sea Eagles are unchanged, though Josh Aloiai is in the reserves after serving a lengthy suspension. Nick Cotric returns from injury on the wing for Sebastian Kris.

Manly have won seven of their last nine against Canberra, but honours were shared in 2021. The Raiders powered to a 30-16 upset at Brookvale in Round 17, while a Kieran Foran field goal proved the difference in the Sea Eagles’ 19-18 win at Suncorp Stadium six weeks later.

The Sea Eagles are warm favourites here but it’s far too early to say they’re back on track. There’s fight in Ricky’s Raiders yet even if the premiership window has been boarded up – they shape as solid value with a converted try start.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 10.5 POINTS / OVER 40.5 POINTS / REUBEN GARRICK ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $7.32

Wooden spoon contenders to Top 8 smokies in a fortnight – that’s how impressive North Queensland has been in consecutive thrashings of Canberra (26-6) and Brisbane (38-12).

The Cowboys lit up Suncorp Stadium on Sunday with Valentine Holmes in vintage touch, Tom Dearden having a field day as his combination with Chad Townsend flourishes, and young forwards Jeremiah Nanai and Griffin Neame putting their names up in lights.

But it’s the Cowboys’ defence – conceding the least points in the league in the first three rounds – that has underpinned their success as coach Todd Payten’s stocks belatedly rise.

The 1-2 Sydney Roosters arrive in Townsville under a bit of pressure, bookending a comfortable win over Manly with convincing losses to Newcastle and Souths. The experience vacuum created by the retirement of Cordner, Friend and the Morris brothers was overlooked during an injury-ravaged 2021 but appears to be taking a toll.

It’s far from panic stations, but the Tedesco-Keary-Walker-Watson spine needs time to find its rhythm. The Cowboys are unchanged, while Daniel Suluka-Fifita replaces Fletcher Baker on the Roosters’ bench.

The Roosters beat the Cowboys 30-16 in Magic Round last season and 34-18 in Townsville two months later; Sam Walker and Angus Crichton both scored in both matches.

Form versus reputation and ability is the key factor to weigh up ahead of this clash, with the Roosters clear favourites against a home team with a head of steam. The Roosters have won eight of their last nine coming off a loss as a favourite but the Cowboys are hard to resist with a healthy start.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: COWBOYS WINS / UNDER 40.5 / MURRAY TUILAGI ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $12.73

Hindered by big-name injury and suspension absentees for each of their three matches to date, Melbourne is coming off consecutive golden point matches – getting up via a Ryan Papenhuyzen field goal against Souths before being foiled by a freak Parramatta try last week.

Brilliant performances from Cameron Munster, Brandon Smith and Papenhuyzen were positive takeaways from the Eels heart-breaker, while this week Harry Grant returns from COVID protocols and Xavier Coates is back from a one-week injury layoff at Nick Meaney’s expense.

Canterbury has been gritty so far in 2022, with its 6-4 win in Townsville looking more impressive in light of the Cowboys’ subsequent form before going down narrowly to the Broncos and Sea Eagles. The Bulldogs have conceded the second-least points in the NRL but have scored an NRL-low 28 points.

Nevertheless, the Bulldogs looked more dangerous with Brandon Wakeham at halfback and Matt Dufty shone at a sodden Brookvale Oval. Enforcer Jack Hetherington has been ruled out for the year in a blow to the Bulldogs’ forward stocks; Ava Seumanafagai comes onto the bench.

The Storm have won their last six matches against the Bulldogs by an average margin of 19 points. They ran in nine tries in a 52-18 mismatch at Homebush in Round 5 last season.

Melbourne has lost back-to-back games just once since the start of 2019. Canterbury is a tougher proposition than the wooden spoon strugglers of 2021 but does not possess the attacking potency to compete with the premiership heavyweights.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-14.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: STORM/STORM HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / UNDER 40.5 POINTS / XAVIER COATES ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $5.09

Somewhat underwhelming during the first two rounds, Parramatta crafted a solid launching pad for its campaign with a golden point win in a top-quality showdown in Melbourne.

Two-try golden point hero Ray Stone has been ruled out for the season, but Dylan Brown and Clint Gutherson give the Eels a distinct top-four look when in top form. Ryan Matterson returns from a hamstring injury on the bench with Bryce Cartwright, the ball-playing back-rowers replacing Stone and Wiremu Greig.

St George Illawarra is at a crucial early juncture, following up a respectable loss to Penrith with a heavy defeat to archrivals Cronulla. The Dragons were brought undone by a Jaydn Su’A sin-binning for the second week in a row, but the 36-12 loss highlighted some worrying defensive deficiencies.

The suspended Su’A is replaced in the second-row by Jack Gosiewski, with Aaron Woods returning form injury on the bench. Max Feagai comes onto the wing for Cody Ramsey (hamstring).

After winning just one of the teams’ previous 10 encounters, the Dragons have had the wood on the Eels over the past two seasons. The Saints grabbed a 26-12 upset in Western Sydney in Round 5 last year.

Dragons linchpin Ben Hunt has started 2022 in great touch, but the inexperienced spine around him needs to lift and this shapes as a big test for the depleted Saints pack against an imposing Eels unit. Too many blue-and-gold weapons to back against the hosts at CommBank Stadium, where Parramatta boasts a 23-8 record.

Tip: Back Eels to Win and Over 39.5 Points @ $2.20

SGM: EELS 1-12 / EELS OVER 23.5 POINTS / CLINT GUTHERSON ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $12.04

2021

The first month of the 2021 NRL season is almost in the books as we look ahead to a bumper Round 4 starting on Thursday night.

The first three games feature three short-priced favourites in the Panthers, Rabbitohs and Storm taking on three of the wooden spoon favourites in Manly, Canterbury and Brisbane respectively.

The action heats up on Saturday with a huge top-eight clash on the Gold Coast between the Titans and Raiders, followed by an important showdown at the SCG on Sunday as the Roosters look to bounce-back against the Warriors.

If you’re looking for analysis on all eight games, we’ve got you covered in our NRL Round 4 Preview right here!

The odds paint a pretty grim picture for the 0-3 Sea Eagles as they prepare for the toughest test in rugby league on Thursday night: the Penrith Panthers.

After battling his way through injuries to start the year, Manly head coach Des Hasler now needs to come up with a game plan to combat a defence that has allowed only 10 points in three games so far.

To be fair, the Panthers did it tough last week in the Grand Final rematch against the Storm, but the way they came from behind to snatch a win on a last-minute Kurt Capewell try tells you all you need to know about the belief in Penrith right now.

The Sea Eagles do have the added luxury of home-field advantage this week, but that really doesn’t count for much when you consider the Panthers won 42-12 during their visits to Brookvale last year.

On a more positive note, Tom Trbojevic could potentially return to the lineup next week, while the Manly defence does have a little less to worry about with Dylan Edwards out for a month with a hand injury, and Brent Naden serving the last game of his suspension.

Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact this is nothing more than a battle between first and last on the ladder.

With Nathan Cleary returning, the Panthers still have enough class and depth to keep on rolling.

Tip: Back the Panthers 13+ & Over 40.5 Total Points @ $2.25

After failing to score a single point last week in Brisbane for the second game in a row, the Dogs now prepare for a red-hot Rabbitohs side riding the highs of another blowout win over the rival Roosters.

The Bunnies stumbled at this hurdle last year losing 26-12 to Canterbury two weeks out from the finals, but based on everything we’ve seen from Wayne Bennett’s new-look roster, another upset seems very unlikely.

Souths head into this game as heavy -21.5 point favourites in betting after carving up the Roosters from the opening whistle last week.

Latrell Mitchell turned in a five-star performance against his former side, and it wouldn’t be surprising if one of the Dally M favourites earns himself top votes again on Friday night.

The Dogs do have something to feel good about with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak returning from suspension this week, but they’re going to need more than a big game from their star winger to come close to scoring an upset.

Souths have played to a 6-2 record in their last eight games as the away favourite, and with the entire team firing at all cylinders, this should be nothing short of another blowout.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-21.5 Total Points) @ $2.00

Kevin Walters picked up his first win as an NRL head coach last week as he now prepares to face his former mentor for the first time on Friday night.

Brisbane really clicked into gear following a scoreless first half, but it’s hard to get too excited about a shutout win over a Bulldogs side that is heavily favoured for the spoon.

The Storm, on the other hand, have some work to do if they hold any hope of rejoining the top four.

After fading away in the second half against the Eels two weeks ago, the Storm suffered the same fate last week in a narrow, and somewhat controversial loss to the Panthers in Penrith.

Fortunately, Ryan Papenhuyzen’s return to the squad couldn’t have come at a better time.

The Storm were missing their star fullback dearly in the dying stages last week, and his inclusion alone is sure to provide plenty of problems for a young and inexperienced Broncos back line. 

Brisbane also grows stronger with Payne Haas and Matt Lodge set to return, but the chances of the Broncos pulling off their first win over the Storm in Melbourne since 2016 still appear slim.

It’s wild to think Brisbane currently sits one spot above the Storm on the ladder.

Considering Melbourne hasn’t lost three-straight since 2018 though, this still shapes as nothing more than a harsh lesson for the baby Broncs.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-20.5 Points) @ $2.00

Things have gone from bad to worse in a hurry for new Cowboys coach Todd Payten.

Last week’s embarrassing loss at the hands of the rival Titans left Josh Maguire with plenty to say in his post-game interview, and it appears things aren’t about to get any easier with a trip to the Sunshine Coast to play the Sharks up next.

After suffering their own blowout loss last week against the Eels, Cronulla will be equally as hungry to get back to business.

Unfortunately, the Sharks will have to go about things without Wade Graham, Will Kennedy and Briton Nikora, while there’s still some doubt surrounding star winger Sione Katoa’s status.

Kyle Feldt is a week away from returning from suspension, but if the Cowboys can exploit some of Cronulla’s weak areas on Saturday, there’s a chance they might just pick up their first win of the season.

While last week’s game was forgettable, there was a lot to like about North Queensland’s efforts the week before against St George – a game that saw them complete over 75% of their sets and run for over 1600m.

With plenty of supporters likely to show up on the Coast, the Cowboys to at least keep it close is worth a play.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (+8.5 Points) @ $1.90

Another top-eight battle headlines Saturday’s slate when the Titans play host to the Raiders on the Gold Coast.

Now winners of two straight, the Titans will be looking to carry over some of the momentum they gained from last week’s 44-8 annihilation over the Cowboys, while the Green Machine has likely spent the week reflecting on what went wrong during last week’s meltdown against the Warriors.

The Raiders have enjoyed the spoils from this fixture in recent times winning each of the last four meetings by 12 points or more, but a blowout looks unlikely this time around with Canberra nursing a long list of injuries.

Like the Sharks, Sebastian Kris and Ryan James are both hoping to pass concussion protocols.

Meanwhile, there are much bigger concerns for Joe Tapine (ankle) and Curtis Scott (ribs).

The Titans are one of the few sides to have avoided the injury bug so far, although that doesn’t seem to have swayed the bookies in their favour.

A slow start like the one that cost them against the Warriors in Round 1 won’t fly against a classy Canberra team that typically bounces back from a previous loss.

So long as the Titans keep their composure though, they should give their home fans something to cheer about.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+4 Points) @ $1.90

A potential top four spot is up for grabs on Sunday when the Knights host the Dragons from Newcastle.

Adam O’Brien’s side suffered one of the biggest upsets of the season last week in their loss to the Tigers, but that may have been the wake-up call the Knights needed as they look to secure a finals spot for the second year in a row.

That isn’t to say this week’s game will come easy against the Dragons, though.

After opening the year with a double-digit loss to the rival Sharks, the Dragons have steadied the ship to rattle off back-to-back wins over the Cowboys and Sea Eagles.

Now sitting fifth, the Dragons will be full of confidence heading into Newcastle, but they won’t hold particularly fond memories of this ground after losing 42-18 to the Knights last September.

To make matters worse, Kalyn Ponga is a chance at playing this week, while the Dragons have also suffered a serious blow of their own after Ben Hunt fractured his fibula last week.

St George fans have reason to feel optimistic this year, but it is difficult to read too much into a pair of victories over two winless sides.

Factoring in Newcastle’s 8-1 record at the line following a previous loss, the Knights really should be bouncing back here.

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Roosters play host to the Warriors at the SCG on Sunday in what is easily one of the most intriguing games of the weekend.

Although the scoreline didn’t reflect it, the tri-colours were no match last week for the Rabbitohs from start to finish – a performance Trent Robinson will be hoping his side can bounce-back from against an injury-riddled Warriors lineup.

Speaking of injuries, the Roosters have also been dealt a blow of their own with reports confirming Luke Keary has suffered a torn ACL.

Fortunately, there is some good news on the Victor Radley front with the star hooker set to return from a shoulder injury, but things aren’t as positive for the Warriors with Peta Hiku now ruled out with a knee injury.

The wear and tear following a short preseason has impacted just about every club in the league, but it’s of particular concern for the Warriors with troops already wearing thin.

Winning back-to-back games has proven a problem for New Zealand over the last three years, and their recent three-game losing streak to the Roosters really doesn’t favour an upset.

Sydney will no doubt be tested with several key playmakers on the sidelines for the coming weeks, but they can still rest easy knowing leading try scorers James Tedesco and Brett Morris remain fit.

The Roosters have to have this one with the Sharks and Storm coming up over the next fortnight, and it’s likely going to take much more than some Roger Tuivasa-Sheck heroics to keep Tedesco and Morris from scoring.

Tip: Back the Roosters 1-12 @ $2.80

The Tigers played the role of spoilers last week in their gutsy 24-20 win over the Knights in Newcastle – a performance that has likely left Michael Maguire’s side beaming with confidence leading into Sunday’s first derby of the year against Parramatta.

While Wests did well to win plenty of the ball and simultaneously force the Knights into 18 errors, there’s no question this a much tougher task against an Eels side looking to extend their unbeaten start to 4-0.

After a couple of half-hearted wins over the Broncos and Storm, the Eels left nothing to chance last week piling on five unanswered tries against the Sharks.

That performance alone explains why the Eels have opened as -10 point favourites this week, not to mention the fact the Tigers have lost five straight to Parramatta dating back to 2018.

On the injury front, there is some concern for Mitchell Moses as he goes through the HIA protocol, but there is good news with Ryan Matterson set to return from a concussion.

Beating a half-strength Newcastle side is one thing, but downing a runaway Eels team that is only getting better each week is an entirely different story.

Parramatta does need to be careful not to underestimate the Tigers, but if they can find plenty of open space like they did last week against Cronulla, they should be winning this comfortably.

Tip: Back the Eels 13+ @ $2.15

2020

On the heels of a jam-packed weekend of upsets, storylines, and even draws, we quickly turn our attention to Round 4 on Thursday night as the Broncos and the Roosters meet in a heavyweight duel at Suncorp Stadium.

Friday’s double-header is of equal importance with the Storm and the Rabbitohs looking to bounce-back from a pair of losses, while Saturday afternoons showdown between the Eels and Manly already holds a finals-like feel.

Sunday the undefeated Green Machine are back in action against the Knights, followed by a race to avoid the wooden spoon on Monday night between the winless Bulldogs and Dragons.

Following a successful weekend of tipping last week, we’re back with everything you need to know in our complete 2020 NRL Round 4 Preview below!

Where to now for the Broncos?

Last week’s no-show against Parramatta was a firm reminder that this team is still as fickle as they come.

With a chance to improve to 3-0 on the season, Brisbane failed to show up at home against the Eels as they were belted 34-6 in similar fashion to last year’s elimination final.

The Roosters were on the opposite end, reversing their hideous 0-2 start with a comfortable 28-12 victory over the Rabbitohs.

Sydney looked in fine form following the two month break as Daniel Tupou scored two minutes in.

The Chooks have received a nice little trim in our NRL Grand Final futures market, and are also the odds-on favourites to hand Brisbane a second-straight loss on Thursday night.

On the injury front, things look pretty bleak for Brisbane.

Alex Glenn and Katoni Staggs have already been ruled out for the clash, while the Roosters remain unchanged at time of publish with Victor Radley escaping suspension on Tuesday.

Of course, the trends do paint a slightly different picture.

These two sides met twice last year and won one game apiece, while the Broncos also hold a very cheeky 5-0 record as the home underdog at the line against Sydney.

This potentially has trap game written all over it, and the bookies are clearly trying to suck you in with the 8.5-point line following Brisbane’s lacklustre performance last week.

Instead, maybe the inclusion of talented 18-year-old Tesi Niu and Staggs’ replacement, Herbie Farnsworth, is the change Anthony Seibold’s team needs.

Throw in the fact the Broncos have won six straight against the Chooks at Suncorp, and you have the makings of a typical Broncos upset.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (+8.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Panthers will feel hard done by at 2-1-0 following last week’s thrilling 18-18 draw against Newcastle.

Not only that, the Panthers also find themselves behind the Knights on the ladder, adding further salt to the wound, but perhaps also, some added motivation ahead of Friday night’s clash.

The Warriors have plenty to build upon themselves following their turnaround performance against the Dragons last week.

New Zealand’s attacking play was nothing short of superb in their shutout victory, but it does beg the question: are the Warriors back to their best, or were the Dragons just that bad?

This is obviously a much tougher test for Stephen Kearney’s side, and the visitors will have to go about their business with Peta Hiku and Agnatius Paasi on the sidelines.

Penrith, meanwhile, remains relatively unchanged, but on the heels of last week’s draw, don’t forget the last time the Panthers and Warriors got together the game went to extra time.

It’s also worth noting that Penrith’s last five home games against New Zealand have all gone Over the Total.

It’s certainly tough to fault the Warriors right now on the back of last week’s effort, but with a few key injuries and a much tougher opponent, the Panthers look the team to beat here.

Tip: Same Game Multi – Panthers to Win/Over 37.5 Total Points @ $2.57

We wouldn’t usually call a Round 4 clash a must-win, but a victory on Friday night could go a long way to shaping the rest of the season for both these clubs.

To say the Storm were run off their feet last week against the Raiders would be putting it lightly.

Melbourne were caught off-guard by Canberra’s new-look, fast-pace attack, and while they seemingly had endless chances to put up points, the Storm, in the end, turned out to be their own worst enemy with mistakes getting in the way.

A lot less could be said of the understrength Rabbitohs, who went down without so much as a whimper against the reigning premiers.

The off-field Cody Walker saga and the absence of James Roberts saw the Bunnies muster only 12-points in the end, leaving them in a precarious position sitting 11th on the ladder at 1-2.

As far as ins and outs go, the Storm carry on without Nelson Asofa-Solomona (suspension), while the James Roberts still looks doubtful to return for Souths.

Trends wise, the Storm have won four of their last five against the Bunnies, but all you really need to know is this: Craig Bellamy’s side almost never loses back-to-back games.

With Cameron Smith, Josh Addo-Carr and Suliasi Vunivalu all performing below their best last week, we should see the Storm bounce-back in convincing fashion.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) @ $1.90

Is it too early to call this a Grand Final preview?

The Eels were standout performers last week following yet another demolition over the Broncos.

Manly, too, were big winners on Sunday where they picked apart a wounded Bulldogs outfit in the early goings to win by 26-points.

Sitting atop the ladder, Parramatta will sense the importance of a win here with a red-hot Canberra breathing down their neck.

The Eels haven’t started a season 4-0 since 1989, so there’s also plenty of history on the line.

Likewise, Des Hasler’s team has plenty to play for with a chance to move inside the top four should results go their way.

These two sides know each other well having played in many famous Grand Final games during the ‘80s, but the one constant (over the last decade at least) has been the Eels getting the upper-hand against their rivals.

Parramatta has won eight of their last 10 against Manly, including a 32-16 victory at home last September.

The other constant has been high-scoring games.

Each of the last four meetings between these two clubs have gone Over the Total, so again, it’s worth combining the two for a little value.

Tip: Same Game Multi – Back the Eels to Win & Over 40.5 Total Points @ $2.92

The Cowboys are now looking to accomplish something they haven’t done since last August – win two consecutive games.

North Queensland were enormous last week at home against the Titans were they piled on 36-points, in large part, thanks to Reece Robson’s double.

A much tougher test comes on Saturday however, as the Cowboys face a winless Sharks side hungry to make up for last week’s missed opportunity against the Tigers.

In what was a tough week for the club off the field, the Sharks made things even more difficult for themselves by surrendering a 16-10 halftime lead thanks to a handful of embarrassing mental errors that allowed the Tigers to win comfortably.

If you’re a Cronulla fan though, the good news is your club has defeated the Cowboys in each of their last three games, with the added motivation of Valentine Holmes lining up on the opposite side this week.

The other piece of good news is Jason Taumalolo has already been ruled out with bruising on his knee, while the Sharks are welcoming Matt Moylan back into the side to replace the injured Chad Townsend.

North Queensland does represent some value at the $1.60 quote, but this is the one game that could result in an upset.

The Sharks have won four of their last five up North, and considering they haven’t started a season 0-4 since 2015, it’s worth backing them at the line for added insurance.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90

Second and third kick off Sunday afternoon footy in what is shaping up to be a cracker thanks to the inclusion of Kalyn Ponga.

The Raiders really look to be the team to beat right now if their performance last week against Melbourne continues into Round 4.

Canberra completely ran the Storm off their feet in the early stages, while the Raiders’ defensive efforts in the final half hour was nothing short of extraordinary.

The Knights weren’t quite as impressive, but there were plenty of positives to take away from their draw against the Panthers.

Newcastle took the field minus Kalyn Ponga and Andrew McCullough, but still managed to battle their way into a stalemate to remain in the top four.

As far as this week’s game goes, Ponga’s inclusion really makes Newcastle an interesting team to consider head-to-head, but it’s difficult to see them matching the Raiders for a full 80-minutes on either side of the ball.

The Green Machine are welcoming Bailey Simonsson back to the wing, which means last week’s danger man Jordan Rapana can be used in short bursts off the bench.

That, and the fact the Raiders are searching for their first 4-0 start to the season since 2005, makes them a good bet to win big.

Tip: Back the Raiders 13+ @ $2.50

This could easily turn out to be the worst game of the round, if not the season. But if the Tigers play anything like they did last week, we could be in for a surprisingly entertaining game.

Wests mixed things up last week against the Sharks in Moses Mbye’s return.

Adam Doueihi’s move to fullback turned out to be a revelation, and it quickly paid dividends as new hooker Harry Grant scored five-minutes in.

Benji Marshall was also at his absolute best pinning the Sharks deep inside their own territory on numerous occasions, which kept Cronulla scoreless in the second half as the Tigers won big.

For the Titans, there wasn’t a whole lot to take away from their blowout loss to the Cowboys.

On the other hand, Gold Coast has won three of their last five against the Tigers.

The fact Tyrone Roberts returns to the side is also a slight plus.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $1.90

This probably isn’t the Monday night blockbuster the NRL envisioned when they re-invented the schedule, but hey, look at the positive: at least one of these teams will finally get a win on the board.

The Dragons are the talk of the town right now following their shutout defeat at the hands of the Warriors.

Coach Paul McGregor is on a serious hot seat, and if the Red V fail to get the job done again this week, it’s safe to say he might be sent packing.

Things aren’t quite as dire at Canterbury, especially with the Bulldogs fielding a less than full strength squad.

The Dogs lost convincingly on the Central Coast to Manly last week, but keep in mind, they did put up a pair of competitive performances before the season was paused, and there is reason to believe they can do that again.

The Bulldogs have played to a 5-2 record as the home underdog at the line over the last 12 months, so just keep an eye on which way the betting swings.

If you include the fact Canterbury hasn’t started a season 0-4 since 1971, don’t be surprised if the Dogs get the job done.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line

2019

A month into the season and already the race towards the premiership is starting to take shape.

This week, the undefeated Storm return home to face the Bulldogs, while the equally impressive Rabbitohs look to keep in touch as they square off against the Sea Eagles in Manly.

As we prepare for what should be another huge round full of upsets, we’ve previewed every game in our complete 2019 NRL Round 4 Preview below.

If Thursday night’s game is anything like last year’s Round 11 affair, NRL fans should be in for a treat.

The Broncos won twice over the Roosters last year, but their clash in mid-May saw a whopping 50-points up on the board. You’d be forgiven for doubting Brisbane’s scoring abilities after a complete meltdown against St. George last Thursday night, but keep in mind, the Broncos tend to save some of their best performances for the road.

Having now strung together two-straight wins, the Roosters are flying high on confidence. Sydney’s attack proved too much for the Eels during last week’s 32-18 victory, a performance that has seen the Roosters jump out as five-point favourites ahead of this week’s game.

As the home favourite Sydney are 5-3 against the Broncos, although at this price, it’s worth noting the Roosters are only 1-4 when it comes to covering the line.

Brisbane’s biggest problem last week was not only lack of possession but also sloppy play on both sides of the ball. The Broncos missed 40 tackles against the Dragons, while their 14 handling errors and seven penalties cost them dearly.

With all that in mind, it’s hard to back the Broncos straight-up, but considering they lost back-to-back games only twice last year, stick with Brisbane to at least keep it close.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90

Never has a Round 4 game felt so important.

As far as finals are concerned, this is a huge match up for both the Titans and Warriors, both of which look headed towards a wooden spoon before a premiership this season.

The Titans weren’t embarrassed by the Rabbitohs last week, but Garth Brennan’s side are still facing an 0-3 hole with no end in sight. Gold Coast’s Brian Kelly was the standout bagging two tries, but the defence ultimately struggled as the Bunnies controlled possession.

After a promising start to the season, the Warriors were also a complete no-show against Manly, falling 46-12 in front of their hometown fans. The worrying sign for New Zealand comes on defence, as missed tackles have become a common theme each week.

Despite all their worries, the Warriors do start as the favourite this week at home. New Zealand are 7-3 in this scenario against the Titans, although Gold Coast could pose a few problems if Anthony Don receives the ball in plenty of space.

If that is the case, the Titans and their 4-2 record as the line underdog could turn into a great bet.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/w1Spdf-W8xI

Two sides eager to bounce-back from complete no-shows could provide the perfect backdrop to a lively affair.

The Panthers were always against the odds facing the Storm, but nobody expected Ivan Cleary’s side to lay a complete goose egg in the try column. Penrith’s only points of the night came on a James Maloney penalty goal, while the defence endured a long night against Dale Finucane and Josh Addo-Carr.

The Tigers also came undone in a surprise blowout against the Bulldogs. A slow start in the fist half saw the Bulldogs run away with a 22-8 victory, but if it wasn’t for sloppy errors, Wests certainly could have kept the game close.

These two sides met once last year in a 16-2 Panthers victory. With home-field advantage again this week, Penrith have opened as the favourites – a role they are 5-3 in against the Tigers.

Wests didn’t do a whole lot wrong last week, but the fact they’ve lost four straight to the Panthers raises a few concerns. After horrible conditions in Bathurst last week, the Panthers should be able to clean up their play and get back to winning ways.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-4.5 Points)

https://youtu.be/a-AXA1i09-Y

Manly’s old stalwarts did the talking last week against the Warriors as both Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans scored two tries each in a 46-12 rout against the Warriors.

The Rabbitohs kept things a little closer against the Titans but remain undefeated alongside the Storm on the top of the table. Campbell Graham was at his best last Sunday, but the Bunnies will need to play a full 80-minutes if they wish to dispose of this dangerous Manly side.

The Sea Eagles won’t hold fond memories of recent games against Souths. Manly were blown out 34-6 on the road last year, while they’ve managed to win only two of their last five meetings against the Bunnies.

South Sydney rightfully enter Saturday’s game as the favourite at Brookvale. The Bunnies are 7-3 as the away favourite over the last 12 months, compared to the Sea Eagles who are just 2-5 as the home underdog.

Manly will fancy themselves this weekend, but the defence is in for a huge test against one of the league’s most explosive offences. Even without Greg Inglis, South Sydney should prove a point on Saturday by stringing together two halves of flawless football.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.63

https://youtu.be/Shn7czEAyec

Nothing went right for the Cowboys at home last week, falling by 26-points to an overpowering Sharks side.

Cronulla got right down to business early with a 15^th minute try by Chad Townsend, before the floodgates opened in the second half behind Josh Morris and Josh Dugan’s brilliant runs.

The Raiders were back in the winners circle last week, albeit narrowly over the Knights. Canberra dominated possession at home to walk away with a 17-10 victory, but perhaps the most encouraging sign was Jordan Rapana’s huge day on attack.

Against an injury ravaged Cowboys outfit, the Raiders will certainly fancy themselves on the road this week. Canberra have won two-straight over North Queensland, including last year’s blowout 38-12 win at home.

The biggest key to this game will be defence. Canberra can rest a little easier knowing the Cowboys are without some of their top scoring threats, while North Queensland need to find a way to silence not only Rapana, but also John Bateman and John Sutton.

It’s a small sample size, but the Raiders are 2-0 as the away favourite over the last 12 months. With these kind of odds on offer, take Canberra to potentially edge themselves into the Top 4.

Tip: Back the Raiders To Win @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/24laG_ZPnro

Third plays sixth on Saturday night in what is shaping up to be the biggest blockbuster of Round 4.

Both the Sharks and the Eels have earned two wins apiece, but its Cronulla who enter this game as the narrow favourite on the road.

Last week’s dominant win over the Cowboys showed the Sharks mean business, particularly on defence. After trailing at halftime, the Sharks went into lockdown mode in the second half allowing a lone try to Gavin Cooper in the 66^th minute.

For the Eels, last week was a learning curve for Brad Arthur’s young side. Parramatta looked to give the Roosters a run for their money by opening the scoring inside the first 10-minutes, but the Eels’ hot/cold spurts on attack cost them while the Roosters dominated possession.

Given Parra’s fall from grace in recent years, it’s not surprising to learn the Sharks have won five-straight over the Eels dating back to 2014. Even so, this game has upset written all over it if the Eels can tighten up around their own line – something they failed to do against the Roosters.

The Sharks defence will keep this game close, but it’s worth noting Cronulla lead the league in errors and penalties conceded. If the Eels learned their lesson last week, these are great odds for a bounce-back win.

Tip: Back the Eels To Win @ $1.97

https://youtu.be/Yhv_4vOuE0A

Canterbury already know there’s no shame in losing to the Storm, but after last week’s huge win over the Tigers, do the Bulldogs stand a chance?

The Storm were at their best last week in Bathurst picking apart the Panthers for a 32-2 win. Melbourne’s moved through their phases with ease, but their defence also looked on point as they forced a handful of errors against Penrith in horrid conditions.

The Dogs also forced some mistakes of their own against Wests last week, but Canterbury will need to tidy up on defence enormously if they wish to upset the Storm in Melbourne. The Bulldogs committed eight penalties against the Tigers, also missing 36 tackles in the 22-8 win.

Since the Storm at such a short price this week, you’ll have to look elsewhere for some value. Despite Melbourne’s razor-sharp attack, it’s worth noting four of the last five games between these two have seen well under 40-points. The Storm are conceding eight points to opponents this year, so back the Under.

Tip: Back Under 41.5 Total Points @ $1.88

https://youtu.be/4LGUc2FjMaw

The NRL has saved the best ‘till last this week as the Knights host the Dragons on Sunday afternoon. These two sides put on a thriller last September, but surprisingly, it’s Newcastle who hold the edge this week despite having lost two-straight against St. George.

The Dragons survived by the skin of their teeth last week, nailing a last-minute drop goal to defeat the Broncos by a point at Suncorp. The Knights also found themselves in a close one against Canberra, but ultimately slipped to their second loss on the season as the offence stalled in the second half.

St. George are an impressive 3-1 as the away underdog against the Knights, while Newcastle are only 2-2 as the overall favourite at home over the last 12 months. Much of this game will come down to who can make the most of their opportunities – particularly the Dragons, who now look to continue without Gareth Widdop.

Kalyn Ponga is back at fullback for the Knights, but will that be enough to stop a Dragons defence that was brilliant in the final 10-minutes against the Broncos? With a few unknowns, this might be a market you’re best off avoiding.

Tip: No Bet

https://youtu.be/NsqpC9Adm-M

2018

There is plenty of Rugby League set to take place over the Easter Weekend and there are games every day from Thursday right through to Monday.

The St George Illawarra Dragons and New Zealand Warriors currently sit on top of the NRL Ladder with three wins apiece, while the Canberra Raiders and Parramatta Eels are still looking for their first wins of the season.

We have analysed every game set to take place in the NRL this weekend and our complete 2018 NRL Round 4 tips can be found below.

The North Queensland Cowboys have lost two games on the trot, but they will still go into this clash as dominant favourites.

A lack of composure inside their own attacking 20 metres let the Cowboys down badly against the Melbourne Storm last Thursday night and the likes of Michael Morgan can’t possibly play as badly as did in that clash.

North Queensland have won five of their past seven games as home favourites for a clear profit and they have covered the line in each of these wins.

The Penrith Panthers had their winning start to the season ended by the Canterbury Bulldogs last Friday night and even worse was the fact that they will now be without Nathan Cleary for ten weeks after he suffered a grade three medial ligament tear to his knee.

Penrith have been significantly better at home than on the road in the past 12 months and they have covered the line in only four of their past 13 games away from home.

The Cowboys really should be able to return to winning form and cover the line in the process.

Back North Queensland To Cover The Line (-10.5 Points)

The market can’t split the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Canterbury Bulldogs ahead of their traditional Good Friday showdown.

South Sydney have improved each time that they have played this season and they were able to record their first win of the season with a comprehensive victory over the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend.

There was plenty to like about that performance and a replica of that effort would make the Rabbitohs very tough to beat in this clash.

Canterbury were also able to score their first win of the season with a fighting victory over the Penrith Panthers and their defence was very tough – especially when it needed to be in the final stages of the game.

I am still yet to be convinced that the Bulldogs have actually made any real improvement in 2018 and the Rabbitohs are unlikely to be as slow out of the blocks as the Panthers were last weekend.

This should be an excellent game and it is the Rabbitohs that really do offer value at their current price.

Back South Sydney To Win @ $1.92

The Melbourne Storm returned to winning form against the North Queensland Cowboys last Thursday night and they will go into this clash with the Cronulla Sharks as clear favourites.

Melbourne were ill-disciplined against the Cowboys and definitely did not play at their best, but they were still able to record a comfortable win and they really ran away from North Queensland late.

The Storm have been incredibly impressive away from home over the past 12 months and they have won their past eight matches as home favourites, while they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.

Cronulla recorded their first win of the season with a grinding 14-4 win over the Parramatta Eels, but their attack is still yet to really click this season.

The Sharks were extremely poor at home last season and they have won just five of their past 12 games at Southern Cross Group Stadium, while they are an awful 2-10 against the line at home over the past 12 months.

Melbourne can make it two wins on the trot and the line of 3.5 points does not look like enough.

Back Melbourne To Cover The Line (-3.5 Points)

The New Zealand Warriors have started the season 3-0 for the first time in their history, but they will still go into this clash with the Sydney Roosters as clear underdogs.

The Roosters produced their best performance of the season to date to dismantle the Newcastle Knights in Round 3 and they really have clicked into gear following their opening round aberration against the Warriors.

Sydney have won 11 of their past 13 games as home favourites for a clear profit, but they are only 5-8 against the line in this scenario.

What a start to the season it has been for the Warriors!

They looked down and out against the Canberra Raiders last Saturday, but they were able to find a way to win and there is a sense of self-belief around the club that has clearly been lacking for a number of seasons.

The Warriors have now won two games away from home this season, but their overall poor record on the road can’t be ignored and they have still won only three of their past 12 games as away underdogs.

This is a game that the market does look to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

The pressure is on Ricky Stuart and the Canberra Raiders in a big way.

Canberra could very well be taking a 3-0 record into this clash, but they have lost games from what looked like unloseable positions against the Gold Coast Titans and the New Zealand Warriors, while they were unable to close out their clash with the Newcastle Knights.

These two teams played out two golden point games last season – both of which were won by the Sea Eagles – and the Raiders ability to win close games will likely be tested once again.

The Raiders have won two of their past four games as away underdogs and it should not be forgotten that they have been in a position to win all three of their games so far this season.

Manly went in their clash with the South Sydney Rabbitohs full of confidence following their dominant 54-0 win over the Parramatta Eels, but they were played off the park by the South Sydney Rabbitohs.

A repeat of that performance will not be enough to beat the Raiders and they will need to become more consistent if they are going to be genuine premiership contenders in 2018.

Manly have won six of their past eight games as home favourites, but they are only 3-5 against the line in this scenario.

Canberra will be able to sort out their mental demons at some point and they are great value to record an upset win over Manly.

Back Canberra To Win @ $2.60

The St George Illawarra Dragons are 3-0 and they have been the big market-movers in our NRL Premiership betting market.

St George backed-up their wins over the Brisbane Broncos and Cronulla Sharks with a domination of the Gold Coast Titans and their is plenty to like about the type of football they have produced to start the season.

The Dragons have now won six of their eight games as home favourites, but they are only 3-5 against the line in this scenario.

The Newcastle Knights suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the Sydney Roosters last weekend, but there is no doubt that this is a team that has taken massive strides in 2018 to date.

Newcastle were able to beat the Dragons last season, but the Dragons have won nine of the past 11 games between the two sides.

The betting play that does standout in this clash is the Over in the Total Points betting market.

The Over has saluted in the past six games played by the Dragons at home as well as the past three games played by the Knights on the road.

This should be an expansive clash and it would surprise if they didn’t cover the Total Points line of 41.5 points.

Back Over (41.5 Points)

The Brisbane Broncos are the shortest-priced favourites in the NRL this weekend.

Brisbane may have taken the two points against the Wests Tigers last Friday night, but they were incredibly lucky and their overall performance was nothing short of putrid.

The Broncos have generally saved their best performances for Suncorp Stadium in recent seasons – Anthony Milford in particular plays much better at home – and it would not surprise to see the Broncos bounce back in a big way.

Brisbane have won nine of their past ten games as home favourites and they are 6-1-3 against the line in this scenario.

The Gold Coast Titans were comprehensively beaten by the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and there is a massive amount of problems with their defence.

They have conceded an average of over 30 points in their three games to date this season and it is impossible to win many games of football when you concede that many points on a regular basis.

Winning away from home has been an issue for the Titans – they have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs and they have not beaten the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium since their first ever meeting in 2007.

Brisbane should prove too strong for the Titans and they can cover the big line of 12.5 points.

Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (-12.5 Points)

This is another game where there is nothing between the two sides in betting.

It has been a horror start for the season for the Parramatta Eels and they backed-up their humiliation at the hands of the Manly Sea Eagles with another very poor performance against the Cronulla Sharks.

The Eels have scored only 18 points so far this season and there are plenty of rumours that the return of Jarryd Hayne has led to a big amount of internal issues at the club.

Parramatta did beat the Tigers 12 last season, but it is incredibly tough to trust the side on the back of their recent form.

The Wests Tigers had their winning start to the season ended by the Brisbane Broncos, but it is fair to say that they were very unlucky and a draw would have been a fitting result.

The defence of the Tigers continues to be outstanding and it should come as no surprise that I am very keen on the Under in this clash.

The Under has saluted in the past six games played by the Tigers and has been a winning betting play in 16 of the past 24 games played by the Eels.

Back Under 37.5 Points

2017

We head into another weekend of NRL action off the back of a round that was packed full of upsets.

The round begins on Thursday night with a clash between old rivals South Sydney and the Sydney Roosters before there are two intriguing games on Friday night.

Manly and Canterbury both recorded their first wins of the season last weekend and they face-off on Saturday, while both Parramatta and Cronulla will be keen to bounce back from what were poor performances.

There is betting interest in every single game this weekend and below you can find our thoughts for all eight NRL fixtures.

The Sydney Roosters scored a controversial win over the Penrith Panthers last weekend and they will go into this clash with the South Sydney Rabbitohs as clear favourites.

The Rooosters have made an almost flawless start to the NRL season and there is now very little doubt that they will be the big improvers in 2017.

They have won six of their past nine games as favourites for a narrow profit, but they are only 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

South Sydney did it the hard way, but they were still able to come away with win against the Newcastle Knights last weekend.

The Roosters are a much tougher challenge and South Sydney will really need to improve to have any chance of accounting for their rivals this weekend.

South Sydney have lost six of their past seven games as home underdogs for a clear loss and their record against the line in this scenario is just as poor.

It would not surprise to see the Roosters blow the Rabbitohs off the park this weekend and the line of eight points is unlikely to be enough.

Back Sydney To Beat The Line (-8 Points)

The Penrith Panthers are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the NRL.

Penrith went down to the Sydney Roosters last Saturday, but they lost no admirers and it is fair to say that they were a touch unlucky.

The Panthers have proven very tough to beat at Pepper Stadium over the past 12 months and they have won eight of their past 10 games as home favourites, but they are only 5-5 against the line in this scenario.

There is no doubt that Newcastle have improved significantly in 2017 and they were only narrowly denied by South Sydney.

The Knights have not won a game away from home in over 12 months and they are 4-7 against the line as away underdogs.

The line is big, but the Knights are due for a regression and the Panthers past four wins over the Knights have come by margins of more than 20 points.

Back Penrith To Beat The Line (-14.5 Points)

This is set to be one of the most intriguing games of the weekend.

The Brisbane Broncos go into this clash as favourites on the back of two heart-breaking losses against the North Queensland Cowboys and the Melbourne Storm.

Brisbane were excellent in both those games and the only concern is just how much those two brutal games of rugby league have taken out of them.

The Broncos have won nine of their past 13 games as home favourites for a narrow loss and they are 6-7 against the line in this scenario.

Canberra returned to their best with a dominant performance against the Wests Tigers last Sunday, but this is obviously a much stiffer challenge.

The Raiders have only won three of their past eight games as away underdogs, but they are 7-1 against the line in this scenario for a huge profit.

It has been a while since the Raiders beat the Broncos, but there really has not been a great deal between the two teams and I am keen to back the Raiders to cover the line with a start of 3.5 points.

Back Canberra To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)

Manly scored a big upset win over North Queensland last weekend, but it is the Canterbury Bulldogs that will go into this clash as narrow favourites.

Canterbury produced their best performance of the season to date to beat the New Zealand Warriors and a similar performance would likely be enough to see off Manly.

The Bulldogs are a reliable betting outfit as favourites and they have won four of their past five games as home favourites, while they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario.

Manly showed a great deal of defensive toughness to take the two points from their clash with North Queensland and it will be interesting to see whether they can reproduce that sort of effort this weekend.

Brookvale Oval has really not been a happy hunting ground for Manly in recent years and they have won just one of their past nine games as home underdogs for a clear loss.

Their record against the line is just as bad and I am more than happy to take them on this record.

Des Hasler will be keen to get a win over his old club and Canterbury should be able to make it two wins on the trot.

Back Canterbury To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)

There is no doubt that this will be one of the games of the weekend and the market can’t split these two sides.

Parramatta could hardly have been more disappointing last weekend.

They absolutely dominated in the first half and still managed to go into half-time even before they fell away in the second half.

Parramatta continue to be a tough team to trust from a betting standpoint, but they have won their past four games at ANZ Stadium.

Cronulla produced their worst performance of the season to date against the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and they were very flat with the ball in hand.

The Sharks have won nine of their past 13 games away from home for a clear profit, but they could not have been more inconsistent over the past three weeks.

The betting market that does really stand out in this clash is the Total Points betting market.

The Over has saluted in five of the past six games played between these sides and recent history suggests that the total points of 38.5 will not be anywhere near enough in this clash.

Back Over 38.5 Points

The North Queensland Cowboys head into this clash off the back of a shock loss against the Manly Sea Eagles, but they will still start this clash as clear favourites.

There is a genuine injury crisis at the Cowboys, but they can’t blame that for their defeat at the hands of the Sea Eagles – they were ill-disciplined, made too many errors and missed too many tackles.

North Queensland struggled away from home last season and they have won only four of their past nine games as away favourites for a clear loss.

The Gold Coast always seem to produce their best football when they have been written off and that is exactly what happened last weekend.

They were under pressure and had a number of players injured in the first half of their clash with the Parramatta Eels, but they toughed it out and ran away with the game in the second half.

The Titans have now won two of their past seven games as home underdogs for a narrow profit, while they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

North Queensland will go into this clash with another under-strength outfit and the Titans are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 5.5 points.

Back The Gold Coast To Cover The Line (+5.5 Points)

Melbourne are yet to taste defeat in 2017 and they head into this clash with the Wests Tigers as clear favourites.

The Storm took the two points from their clash with the Brisbane Broncos last Friday night, but they lost Cameron Munster to injury in the process and that puts the pressure on Billy Slater, who started on the bench in his return to rugby league.

Melbourne are one of the most reliable betting teams in the NRL and their record away from home is particularly strong – they have won nine of their past 10 games as home favourites and they are 7-3 against the line in this scenario.

The Tigers were awful against the Canberra Raiders and that performance has cost Jason Taylor his job less than a month into the season.

Sides can often fire following the sacking of a coach, but this is still a very tough assignment for the Tigers.

There is a thought out there that the Tigers save their best form for Leichhardt Oval, but they have won only three of their past eight games at the venue and they are 4-4 against the line.

Melbourne should really prove far too strong for the Tigers and the line of six points will not be enough.

Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (-6 Points)

This is another game in which the market can’t separate the two teams.

St George Illawarra have made a very positive start to the season and there was a lot to like about the way that they toughed out a win over the Cronulla Sharks last Sunday.

The Dragons have won eight of their past 13 games at home for a clear profit and last year was the first time they have suffered defeat at the hands of the New Zealand Warriors for several seasons.

We may only be three rounds into the NRL season, but the Stephen Kearney era at the Warriors has not gotten off to a very positive start.

The Warriors are at their best when they are creating second-phase play and they went into last weekend’s clash with the instructions to not off-load the ball.

It cost them the game.

An improved game plan is desperately needed for the Warriors this weekend and even that may not be enough.

The Warriors have won just four of their past 11 games in Australia and their overall record against the Dragons is extremely poor.

Back St George Illawarra To Win @ $1.90

2016

Easter weekend is always a big one in the NRL and 2016 is no exception. The weekend gets underway with the traditional Good Friday afternoon fixture between the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Canterbury Bulldogs before the Brisbane Broncos host the North Queensland Cowboys in the highly anticipated Grand Final rematch.

The rivalry between the Sydney Roosters and Manly Sea Eagles has been one of the fiercest in the NRL in recent years and they renew acquaintances in the pick of the games on Easter Saturday.

The St George Illawarra Dragons Penrith Panthers clash is the only game of Sunday, but that leaves three games for what is set to be a massive afternoon of rugby league on Monday afternoon.

The South Sydney Rabbitohs came crashing back to earth with a very sloppy performance against the St George Illawarra Dragons last Sunday, while the Canterbury Bulldogs were outplayed by the Parramatta Eels.

The Rabbitohs were very unorganized against the Dragons and it is clear that they are sorely missing Adam Reynolds, so it is easy to see why the Bulldogs are such clear favourites here.

Canterbury rarely produced back-to-back poor performances and they are 4-1 as favourites in head to head betting in the past 12 months, while the Rabbitohs have won just one of their past six games as underdogs.

The Bulldogs should be able to grind out a tough win tomorrow afternoon and I am happy to support the Des Hasler-coached side at their current quote of $1.55.

Recommended Bet: Back The Canterbury Bulldogs To Win @ $1.55

This is one of the most anticipated games of the 2016 NRL season.

The Brisbane Broncos and North Queensland Cowboys did battle in one of the greatest Grand Finals in the history of Rugby League last year and if this game is half the game that was then it is set to be an absolute ripper.

The Broncos suffered a shock defeat at the hands of the Penrith Panthers last weekend after giving up a big second-half lead, but are still set to start this game as clear favourites.

Brisbane are 9-3 as home favourites in the past 12 months and even more impressively they are 8-4 against the line in this scenario.

North Queensland were far too good for a hapless Sydney Roosters side last weekend and they will take plenty of confidence from the improved performance.

The Cowboys have an excellent record as away underdogs both in head to head betting and against the line, with the Premiers winning six of their eight games as away underdogs in the past 12 months.

The NRL Grand Final showed that there is very little between these two sides and there is no way that the Broncos should be such clear favourites.

Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys To Win @ $2.30

I didn’t think that I would be saying this at the start of the season, but this is one of the most intriguing games of the round.

The Canberra Raiders were excellent in their first two games and they had a strong start against the Knights, but they well away in the second half and they missed out on a golden opportunity to make it three wins on the trot.

The Raiders are clear favourites here and this is a position in which they have struggled in the past 12 months – they are 5-5 and they are only 4-6 against the line.

Gold Coast have been one of the biggest surprise packages of the NRL season to date and they were good against the Wests Tigers last weekend, but they are still set to start this game as clear outsiders.

The Titans are 8-10 against the line as underdogs in the past 12 months and that record does not get any better away from home.

The one betting market that does stand out in this match is the Over/Under.

Ricky Stuart-coached sides are typically Over teams and the Over has saluted in 14 of the Raiders last 25 games, while the Over is 8-3 in Gold Coast Titans away games in the past 12 months.

Recommended Bet: Back The Over (46.5 Points)

The Manly Sea Eagles finally scored their first win of the Trent Barrett era against the Cronulla Sharks last weekend, while the Sydney Roosters suffered another humiliating defeat at the hands of the North Queensland Cowboys.

Manly have really struggled as favourites in the last 12 months and they are just 1-3 as away favourites in this time period.

The Roosters are 3-1 against the line as underdogs, but it is fair to say that this is a completely different Roosters side and I am not willing to back them until we see some drastic improvement.

I expect these teams to improve as the seasons continues and this will an interesting clash, but it is not one I a keen to get involved in from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The St George Illawarra Dragons and Penrith Panthers both come into this game on the back of narrow upset victories.

The Dragons showed their defensive resilience to stifle a South Sydney Rabbitohs side and on the back of that performance they are set to start this game as narrow favourites.

St George Illawarra have been a very safe bet as favourites in the past 12 months and they are 6-1 as home favourites in head to head betting as well as 4-3 against the line.

The Panthers won as underdogs last weekend, but they have won just two of their past nine games as underdogs and are 5-6 against the line in this scenario.

I expect this to be a low-scoring affair and the Dragons should be able to grind out another narrow win.

Recommended Bet: Back The St George Illawarra Dragons To Win @ $1.80

Both these sides are still chasing their first win of the NRL season, although the Newcastle Knights were able to claim one point against the Canberra Raiders last weekend.

The New Zealand Warriors have been the biggest disappointment of the NRL season to date and a fourth straight victory could spell the end of Andrew McFadden’s coaching career.

The market is giving the Warriors another chance here and they are very clear favourites, but you couldn’t possibly back them at that price and they are 3-6 against the line as home favourites,

It is tough to get excited about the Newcastle Knights either. They were better against the Raiders, but there are still plenty of issues with this side and their record as underdogs in the past 12 months is very poor.

While you can’t count of either of these teams to win football games, they are generally capable of scoring plenty of points and I expect this to be a very high-scoring affair.

Backing the over in games involving these sides has been a very profitable play in the past 12 months and I expect over 44.5 points to be scored on Monday afternoon.

Recommended Bet: Back The Over (44.5 Points)

Both the Wests Tigers and Parramatta Eels were tipped to be big improvers this season and they both head into this fixture with two wins apiece.

There was plenty of hype surrounding the Tigers after two impressive wins in the first two games of the season, but they were poor against the Titans last weekend and are clear underdogs this weekend.

The Tigers are 4-2 as home underdogs in the past 12 months, but these wins were generally recorded at Campbelltown Stadium or Leichhardt Oval.

The Eels could not have been more impressive against the Bulldogs last weekend and this will be just the third time in the past 12 months that they have started a game away from home as favourites.

Parramatta have a strong record against the line away from home and, although it is a very small sample size, they are 2-0 as away underdogs.

I really like what I have seen from the Eels this season and I am confident they can back up their win over the Bulldogs with another impressive performance against the Tigers.

Recommended Bet: Back The Eels To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)

The Melbourne Storm sit on top of the NRL ladder after three games, but they face a tricky Monday night assignment against the Cronulla Sharks.

The Storm have been a bit scratchy in each of their three wins, but they have still been able to get the job done and I’m not really sure how the market has them as underdogs.

Melbourne are 3-4 against the line in head to head betting in the past 12 months although that record is better against the line and they are 6-5 in this scenario.

The Sharks were only middling against Manly last weekend, but they have been a much better team in front of their home fans in recent seasons and they have eight of their last 11 fixtures at Shark Park.

Cronulla are 6-4 against line as favourites and that record is just as good at Shark Park.

I fancy both these teams from a betting perspective going forward, but the market appears to have gotten this game just about right.

Recommended Bet: No Bet