2023 Rugby World Cup Tips

Rugby fans are in the midst for seven weeks of late nights with the Rugby World Cup kicking off in France and it is shaping up as a wide open tournament.

After a dramatic pool stage where two time champions Australia were the biggest names sent home, we are ready for the knockout stage in the coming weeks.

Two very different sides of the draw have unfolded, with the hosts France on the heavyweight half with Ireland, New Zealand and South Africa, while Wales, Argentina, England and Fiji make up the other side.

We’ve got you covered right to the end of Rugby World Cup with our match tips below so read on and see who we are backing.

KNOCKOUT STAGE

Rugby World Cup Final

The Rugby World Cup’s two most successful nations will face off in the final for the second time with New Zealand and South Africa both chasing a fourth William Webb Ellis Cup.

Between them they have won six of the nine previous tournaments and have split the last four editions, so the pedigree is there and based on the pre-tournament odds, it is not a surprise to see these two featured in the last game.

There are plenty of similarities in terms of how both made the final, having each lost one of their group games to a fancied Northern Hemisphere rival, before battling through the knockout phase.

South Africa have the versatility and the nous to trouble New Zealand, having defeated them 35-7 in a warm up match in August and their results in this tournament showed they can play a low scoring, defensive brand of rugby or utilise a wide-open expansive game plan.

But it is just so hard to back against New Zealand in this situation, after losing the tournament opener to hosts France, they have been borderline unstoppable.

Their only win that was decided by less than five tries was the epic Quarter Final against Ireland and I’m expecting a similar sort of encounter to unfold here so I’ll have a play on the overs.

Both teams just have too much in attack to see this finish 15-12 after extra time like the 1995 final, and there is the old adage, when in doubt, back the Kiwis, so I’ll take New Zealand in a close one.

As this is the final let’s also have a couple of try scorer plays to try and finish off the tournament on a winning note.

Will Jordan is inevitable, coming off a hat-trick in the Semi Final and he did cross in the Rugby Championship game between the two sides in July.

Cheslin Kolbe has been quiet by his standards this World Cup with just the two tries to date, however he did score in the Springboks’ 2019 triumph over England and remains their main gamebreaker.

To round it out I’ll also have a play on Shannon Frizell who has a bit of form in his favour, scoring twice against Argentina and once in the Rugby Championship game as well.

New Zealand to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.75

Over 41.5 Points @ $1.83

Will Jordan Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.25

Cheslin Kolbe Anytime Try Scorer @ $3.00

Shannon Frizell Anytime Try Scorer @ $6.00

Bronze Final

Look, we can all agree this is probably the most superfluous game of the entire World Cup, but it’s got to be played so let’s see if we can find some value.

Argentina looked like they had run their race in the Quarters as they had no answer for a rampant All Blacks side last weekend.

England might not have much left in the tank either following their draining, physical clash with South Africa however they should have Argentina covered.

It was England coming away with a 27-10 win in the opening match of the tournament, despite playing most of that game with 14 players.

Both teams will probably be happy to get these 80 minutes over and done with but England should have a bit more to prove and the Pumas just look like they are spent.

England to Win by 13+ @ $2.38

Semi Finals

After the best weekend of Rugby World Cup action in a long time, it appears as though the William Webb Ellis Cup is heading back to the Southern Hemisphere.

Three of the four Semi Finalists are from below the equator and we’ve got this Rugby Championship battle between Argentina and New Zealand to decide the first spot in the final.

Argentina has made it to the final four for the third time in their history, losing the 2007 Semi Final to eventual winners South Africa and the 2015 Semi Final to runners up Australia.

As for New Zealand, making it this far is the norm for them, having missed the Semi Finals once in ten editions of the tournament.

Despite losing their first game to France, what the neutrals feared would be the case has become the reality with the sleeping giant waking up and dismantling all comers since that game.

But they were never more impressive than last week, pushed all the way by Ireland before displaying a clinical edge to get them over the line.

That clinical edge is why they will advance past the Pumas, who have impressed to make it this far themselves, but I’m not expecting a big blowout here.

Argentina will throw everything at the All Blacks and despite a 29-point loss to the Kiwis in the Rugby Championship earlier this year, I like their chances of staying in this one.

Argentina to Cover +17.5 @ $1.83

Four years ago, England and South Africa were facing off in the World Cup Final and now they will play for the second spot in the 2023 Final.

Despite being written off by many in the lead up to the tournament, the English have found a way to put it all together and surprisingly, are the lone unbeaten team left in the final four.

They did it the hard way against Fiji despite starting as clear favourites, but coming into this one as underdogs might suit them here.

With the weight of expectation off their shoulders, they can just play the game and not the occasion, whereas South Africa will be expected to win.

The Springboks needed just about every last trick in the book to get by tournament hosts France and I would not be surprised to find them a little sluggish out of the gates here.

That might act as the equaliser early and give England the confidence to go for broke and force South Africa to play catch up rugby.

This line looks a few points too high and I’ll take the English to cover as we get treated to another frenetic finish.

England to Cover +12.5 @ $1.91

Quarter Finals

There’s a real case to be made that Wales overachieved during the Pool Stage, ending up on top of their group by a remarkable eight point margin.

Now comes their toughest test of the tournament against an Argentine team that needed a final day win over Japan to ensure their progression to the Quarter Finals.

In a sign of Argentina’s growth as a rugby nation, they have won one and drawn one of their last three matches against the Welsh.

However Warren Gatland has his side performing well above expectations and they should have the firepower to get by the Pumas.

Wales to Win by 1-12 @ $2.38

A match worthy of being a World Cup Final in its own right sees Ireland taking on New Zealand for a spot in the Semi Finals.

There is every chance the winner of this one will be the team raising the William Webb Ellis Cup in a couple of weeks.

Despite losing their first game against France, New Zealand played their way into form with three massive wins that allowed them to finish with the best points differential in the entire World Cup.

Ireland will be more than happy to have this game played at a much slower tempo with points at a premium.

Working in the Irish team’s favour is the memory of them going to New Zealand in July 2022 and winning that three test series 2-1.

Both of those victories were by a ten point margin and I’ll back the Irish to win another close one with a vocal travelling crowd behind them.

Ireland to Win by 1-12 @ $2.38

It’s weird to suggest that Fiji will be much more relaxed playing England than they were in their last two games against Georgia and Portugal but for them, the pressure is off.

They made the Quarter Finals at the expense of Australia even if they did it the hard way and have nothing left to lose in this game that should allow them to play a slightly more open brand of rugby.

Add in the fact they beat England 30-22 just before the World Cup kicked off in a warm up match and we should be on upset alert.

England were very lucky to escape from their group stage with a 4-0 record after they only just got by Samoa 18-17 in their final game.

Defensively they only gave up 39 points in four games however Fiji is one of the more dynamic teams they will come up against and they have the potential to keep themselves in striking distance for the entire 80 minutes.

If England do win it will be a very closely fought game but I give Fiji a real chance of not only keeping it close but engineering an upset.

Fiji to Cover +7.5 @ $1.91

With all of the noise surrounding France, Ireland and New Zealand, you do forget that South Africa are the reigning world champions and they aren’t planning on giving up that title yet.

However France have the benefit of playing at home and the Stade de France is going to be jam packed with blue apparel for this Quarter Final.

The Springboks’ only loss during the Pool stage came at the hands of Ireland in an epic encounter while the French overcame their tough test first up against New Zealand.

Their only meeting since the 2019 World Cup came in November 2022 where the French won a tight clash 30-26.

Like the other three Quarter Finals I’m expecting a tight clash but I have to side with the French at home.

France to Cover -1.5 @ $1.91

Pool Stage

Over the last nine World Cups, few teams would have faced off as many times as France and New Zealand.

This will be the eighth World Cup match between the two teams with New Zealand holding a 5-2 head to head advantage, although the two French wins have been monumental.

The first one came in the 1999 Semi Final in a 43-31 epic, before eliminating the All Blacks 20-18 in the 2007 Quarter Final, although the Kiwi’s won the biggest match between the two, claiming the 2011 Final in New Zealand 8-7.

In 2019 they avoided each other and their last World Cup game was the 2015 Quarter Final where New Zealand belted the French 62-13.

However, that history will not count for a whole lot when they face off in Paris on Saturday morning.

France will start as slight favourites and they are bringing strong form into this match, while the All Blacks put out a very strong team in their last warm up game that went down 35-7 to South Africa.

But what swings this game in favour of France is that New Zealand can afford to drop this game and still play their way into the tournament to be competitive come the knockout stage.

France has a lot more pressure on starting things on a positive note on home soil and this game means a lot more to them.

France to Win @ $1.80

Across six prior World Cups, Namibia has the unenviable record of 22 matches played, 22 losses and one draw which came from a cancelled fixture in 2019 due to Typhoon Hagibis.

Their best result in a completed game is a one point loss to Georgia in 2015, but that is very much an anomaly compared to the rest of their World Cup history.

Their net for and against points total is 1323 conceded and 248 scored, with an average losing margin of 48.86.

They have lost by at least 50 points in every tournament and 10 times in total and have been held scoreless on three occasions, including a 142-0 loss against Australia in 2023.

All of this is a rather long way of saying that I’m not expecting them to be very competitive in 2023 and it will start with this first up game against Italy.

Best case scenario they hold on for a half, but Italy should run away with this one at some stage.

Italy to Cover -30.5 @ $1.90

If you make it through Italy-Namibia and are hoping for a competitive game to keep you engaged through to 2:00am, this one won’t be doing you any favours.

Romania might have won the bronze medal in the 1924 Olympics but that’s about as good as it gets for that team, although unlike Namibia, they have won a couple of games at the tournament.

However the draw has done them no favours with the world number one Irish team up first and the line has been set at nine converted tries.

Scoring has not been an issue for Ireland in the last 14 months as they bring a 14 game winning streak into this match which includes some big wins over more fancied opponents.

This is a good time to jump on the Irish bandwagon and I’m expecting them to make a deep run in this tournament, starting with a big win over a side they are a lot better than.

Ireland to Cover -61.5 @ $1.85

On the plus side, Australia is almost certainly going to win their first game of 2023 when they take on Georgia early Sunday morning.

That’s about all we can expect from a team that still has a lot of unanswered questions about how competitive they truly are.

Eddie Jones is a good coach, he’s got some good players at his disposal and they should take care of business against Georgia here.

The line is rather short compared to some of the other early round mismatches and this should see a much bigger result than the 27-8 win Australia recorded when they met in Japan in 2019.

Australia to Cover -22.5 @ $1.85

Saturday night’s quadruple header concludes with a great matchup between England and Argentina that could go either way.

Argentina comes into the game in great form on the back of some encouraging performances in The Rugby Championship, even if the wins were not always there.

They also have the confidence of a win over England in their last meeting, pipping them 30-29 last November at Twickenham.

That is just one of a number of concerning results for England in their World Cup lead in and it’s tough to have a whole lot of confidence in them here.

Argentina looks like the better side and at their current price, I’m happy to back them in.

Argentina to Win @ $1.95

How can you get excited about this game, other than it is in a favourable time zone for Aussie viewers.

Japan has lost nine of it’s last ten dating back to July 2022, most recently going down 42-21 to Italy, while Chile has lost its last six games.

On the plus side both teams have conceded plenty of points while not being kept quiet with the ball in hand so this should be a high scoring affair.

Japan is way too short in this market, I can’t back them at a 24.5 point line and there’s no good case to be made for Chile either, I’ll just back the over.

Over 54.5 Points @ $1.91

Don’t count out the reigning world champions just yet, South Africa enters the tournament in imposing form winning its last four and they are co-favourites for a reason.

They have a tough first up assignment though, Scotland have won four of their last five which includes a two game split with France a month ago.

Only a 27-point win over Georgia was a blowout and I like the Scots’ ability to keep this one tight.

They might not win but this should go right down to the wire.

South Africa to Win by 1-12 @ $2.40

In the three-horse race to make it out of Pool C, this is a massive game that neither can afford to drop if the Aussies win big the day before.

Wales might have won the last five games between these sides, but this looks like a side in turmoil as the first game approaches.

They only just avoided a sweep in the Six Nations by beating Italy in their penultimate game and are coming off a hammering at the hands of South Africa.

Fiji on the other hand just enjoyed a historic win in England and the benefits of playing Super Rugby are showing in this squad and I like their chances to start the tournament with an upset victory.  

Fiji to Win @ $2.60

The second weekend of Rugby World Cup action kicks off with the host nation taking on a feisty Uruguay side that will be dreaming of its biggest ever scalp.

In their dreams is about the only place they are going to have a chance at beating this French team though with a massive gulf in class and history not on the Uruguayans side.

They have won three games at the Rugby World Cup across four tournaments, defeating Spain in 1999, Georgia in 2003 and their biggest scalp Fiji first up in 2019.

France is coming off a 27-13 win over New Zealand first up and have their sights set on a clean sweep of Pool A, which should be very achievable with a largely full-strength side given the extra rest in this edition of the tournament.

Uruguay will hold on for a while and keep France in check, but I’m expecting Les Bleus to run away with it in the second half.

Uruguay First Half Line +25 @ $1.91

Let’s set the stage for this one, New Zealand lost a pool match for the first time ever and need to right the ship with a statement win.

Namibia just gave up 52 points to Italy, Europe’s fifth or sixth best side at best.

When these sides met in the 2019 World Cup, New Zealand put up 71 on them and that seems like a low bar for this game.

Not going to overthink this one or try to make a case for Namibia, New Zealand by a lot.

New Zealand to Cover -69.5 @ $1.91

Samoa will make their 2023 World Cup debut with a clash against a Chilean side that was thoroughly outclassed by Japan.

The Samoans have had a decent lead in to this tournament over the last 12 months, winning five of their last seven and pushing Ireland all the way in a 17-13 defeat in their last up outing.

This will be their first ever clash with Chile who did not look that great in their first up loss at the hands of a bang average Japan team.

Samoa might not be the best team at the World Cup, but they are good enough to get by Chile comfortably here.

Samoa to Cover -33.5 @ $1.91

Wales got by Fiji in their first game but there were plenty of warning signs that this is a team that is quite vulnerable to a plucky upstart.

Portugal is a nation far more accomplished in a different code, with this being just their second ever appearance at the tournament and they will be hoping things go a bit better than 2007 where they lost all four games and gave up an average of 52 points per contest.

On the plus side they did get a bonus point by only losing to Romania 14-10, so it wasn’t a complete waste of time.

This game is simply a case of working out how much you expect Wales to win by.

Wales has not exactly been the most free scoring of sides of late, their win over Fiji was only the second time in the last two years they have scored more than 30 points in a game.

However most of those games have come against tier one nations and Portugal isn’t exactly an elite rugby nation.

The confidence of getting by Fiji should be enough to propel Wales to a second World Cup win and a bonus point is a must for them.

Wales to Cover -29.5 @ $1.92

Despite heading into this game as 36.5 point favourites, Ireland are going to be in for a much tougher test when they take on Tonga on Sunday morning.

Tonga will be fresh having sat out the opening weekend but that might lead to some rust early on, which is not what you want against the top ranked team in the world.

I’m quite bullish on Ireland in general this tournament so I’ll happily back them for another big victory.

Ireland to Cover -36.5 @ $1.91

If you did not feel sorry for Romania when they lost to Ireland by 80, you might in this game when the Springboks win by a similar margin.

This is going to be a much more straightforward game for the reigning champions after a hard-fought 18-3 win first up.

Romania has been dealt a cruel hand starting off the group stage with a pair of tough assignments and I’m expecting no mercy from South Africa here.

At least this line is high enough to keep you watching into the second half to see when they cover (or if).

South Africa to Cover -69.5 Points @ $1.91

Australia got the job done against Georgia first up, and the 20-point win was probably a decent reflection of how the game went, comfortable if not ruthless.

However there were a couple of things to come out of it that might make things a bit more tense this weekend against a Fijian side that can cause plenty of problems.

First and foremost, Tate McDermott suffering a concussion that will rule him out of the game robs the Aussies of their best scrum-half and secondly, Fiji is a side that can punish mistakes a lot more efficiently than Georgia.

Add in the fact Fiji is full of players that had a bumper year in the Super Rugby Pacific competition that included a few big wins over Aussie sides and the two-time champions have to be on guard.

Fiji lost their first game against Wales and will need to win here to keep their tournament alive.

I still like Australia to win the game, but they’re going to be made to work by a desperate and highly skilled opponent.

Australia to Win by 1-12 @ $3.10

England impressed in a tough first up assignment over Argentina, especially after an early red card but they weathered that storm thanks to the boot of George Ford before running away with it in the second half.

But you do wonder how much that performance took out of them spending 76 minutes with just 14 men.

Chances are they will spend most if not all of this game with a full compliment of players which should allow them to get by Japan comfortably.

Japan looked very good against an overmatched Chilean side first up but that England performance won over a lot of viewers, myself included.

England to Cover -21.5 @ $1.91

Uruguay might have lost their first match against France but they would have gained plenty of confidence, comfortably covering the line and losing by only 15 points.

They might not play the prettiest brand of rugby but they are able to stay in games and have not been blown out all that much in the last few months.

Italy is still the better team and they looked good in their opening weekend victory over Namibia but I’m expecting this to be a much closer game than the market is forecasting, so I’ll happily take Uruguay at the line.

Uruguay to Cover +21.5 @ $1.91

After a couple of hard fought games, the French should be able to flex their muscle in Marseille this weekend when they take on a Namibian team that has already been outscored by 112 points.

Even with the expected rotations to keep the tournament hosts fresh, they should be able to handle their opponents here.

Namibia didn’t offer much of anything but did technically cover the +69.5 line against New Zealand, however I’m expecting this margin to top 70 points.

France to Cover -67.5 @ $1.80

Argentina’s World Cup campaign got off to a rough start, falling 27-10 to an England team that spent all bar the first four minutes of the game playing a man down.

Defensively they were able to hold out the English but poor discipline allowed George Ford to slot six penalties and three drop goals in an homage to Jonny Wilkinson in 2003.

Samoa looks like a team that will match up well with the Pumas, coming off a convincing 43-10 win over Chile first up and they have enough big game experience to guide them through situations like this.

It’s a small line compared to some of the other games but I was really impressed with how Samoa came out of the blocks and I like their chances of at least causing Argentina to stress late in this game.

Samoa to Cover +12.5 @ $1.91

The winner of this will finish fourth in Pool C with the other three teams fighting for the two Quarter Final spots.

Both lost their first game by 20 points against one of the “big boys” and Georgia will have the fresh legs after having last weekend off.

There is a bit of recent history to go off with these teams as well with a number of European Championship matches since plus a tour match in the last decade and that history is firmly in favour of the Georgians.

Portugal has never defeated Georgia and the only time they did not lose was a 25-25 draw in 2022.

Plenty of those Georgian wins have been by double digits including a 38-11 drubbing earlier this year so I’ll back another big win here.

Georgia to Cover -14.5 @ $1.83

It took 104 minutes of rugby, but England did manage to score a try at the World Cup and it helped propel them to a 2-0 start with a bonus point win over Japan.

Chile has lost its first two by a combined margin of 62 points and really looked like a team making their World Cup debut.

In theory England is a step above Japan and Samoa and they should be able to handle this opponent with relative ease.

England to Cover -47.5 @ $1.83

Two teams in red hot form face off in what is one of, if not the marquee matchup of the pool stage between two teams with their sights set on the William Webb Ellis Cup.

Ireland has recorded a pair of big wins over Romania and Tonga to date while the South Africans ground out a win over Scotland before belting Romania.

There’s a lot to like about the Irish team though and it’s a little surprising to see them as outsiders.

It’s nearly impossible to split these teams and it looks like a real toss up that could go either way so I’ll happily jump on Ireland as a price.

Ireland to Win @ $2.20

Despite having played just once in this tournament, it’s crunch time for Scotland if they want to pull off a miracle and escape Pool B.

After a first up loss to South Africa they have to not only win their next three but win well over the sides they’re expected to beat.

Admittedly they’ve played some very strong opposition across the Six Nations and their warm up games, but they just don’t look capable of scoring enough points to blow out Tonga.

They have had minimal problems reaching 20 points but their highest score this year is 35 and Samoa is a team that can score enough to keep them in games.

Scotland should win this one but I like Tonga to keep it close.

Tonga to Cover +23.5 @ $1.91

Australia’s loss to Fiji was a massive blow to their World Cup campaign, but if you’ve been following international rugby for the last few years, it really shouldn’t a massive shock given the progression of the Fijian team.

It also turned Pool C on its head and made this game between Wales and Australia a must win for both of these teams.

With only Georgia and Portugal left to play, a Welsh win would all but secure their spot in the Quarter Finals and put them in great position to top the group.

As for Australia a win is a must, but it won’t be enough to secure anything other than some hope heading into their clash with Portugal.

This will be the third straight World Cup these two have been drawn in the same pool and they split the games in 2015 and 2019, with Australia winning the most recent meeting 39-34 last November.

The Aussies’ chances are significantly hindered by the injuries to key forwards Will Skelton and Taniela Tupou but they are still a decent chance considering the up and down form of Wales over the last year or so.

Just like the market is suggesting, this is a toss up between two teams with plenty to play for and in the interests of consistency, I have to take the price on Wales.

Wales to Win @ $2.00

Little more than pride goes on the line in this Pool A game with both sides yet to win at the World Cup.

Namibia will play their final game having lost their three outings by a combined margin of 208 points so far, pretty much keeping in line with their history at the tournament.

Uruguay on the other hand have been one of the pleasant surprises over the last few weeks, giving Italy and France all they could handle and this looks like their best chance to claim a win.

The line for this one looks way too short given the respective performances to date and I’ll happily take Uruguay to win comfortably.

Uruguay to Cover -17.5 @ $1.83

If either team wants to keep their hopes of an unlikely progression to the knockout stage of the World Cup alive, they simply have to win this one and it sets up for a very tight contest.

Samoa fell into an early hole against Argentina and just couldn’t manufacture the comeback but they did look good in their comfortable win over Chile.

Japan opened up their campaign with a 30-point win of their own over Chile before being summarily dismissed by England a fortnight ago.

When these sides met in the Pacific Nations Cup earlier this year, Samoa snuck home 24-22 but the last two World Cup meetings have gone the way of Japan.

However this Japanese team isn’t quite as strong as it was in previous years and I like Samoa to just get home.

Samoa by 1-12 Points @ $2.60

It’s very rare that Italy would go into a Rugby World Cup match with a better record than New Zealand but after a couple of tune ups, that’s where we are at.

They could essentially send the All Blacks home with a shock win, but one look at the market serves as a nice reminder of how this one is going to go.

New Zealand has had a fortnight to get ready for this one and they had a tune up of their own, belting Namibia by 68 points in their second group game.

Stick with the winning formula and take the three-time champions to pick up a big win.

New Zealand to Cover -26.5 Points @ $1.91

Argentina should win this game, but there are real concerns over whether or not they have the firepower to score 50 points, let alone cover -51.5 at the line.

Chile will farewell the World Cup with an 0-4 record and they have nothing to lose so don’t be surprised if they have a few wrinkles to throw at the Pumas throughout the game.

They were able to hold the margins against Samoa and Japan to around 30 points and this line just looks to be way too high.

Chile to Cover +51.5 @ $1.91

Australia’s loss to Wales has Fiji in position to all but secure progression to the knockout phase via a bonus point win over Georgia.

Perhaps the biggest concern for the Georgians is that after showing signs of competitiveness against Australia, they suffered a massive let down against Portugal and were very fortunate to escape with a draw in that game.

Stylistically they have the power to match up with Fiji in that department but the flair is a comprehensive points win for the 2007 Quarter Finalists.

After three straight pool stage exits they are well placed to advance here in France and after Georgia’s letdown last weekend, I’m happy to take the Europeans on.

Fiji to Cover -17.5 @ $1.91

This tip is more geared towards recognising how bad Romania have been at this tournament (and in the lead up) than anything to do with the Scots.

They have lost both games to the powerhouse Irish and South Africans which is no surprise all things considered.

But when they managed to lose those games by a combined score of 158-8, it kind of says all you need to hear about the talent disparity.

Scotland have been a bit up and down through their two games but they are good enough to win this one comfortable and give their points difference a bit of a boost.

Scotland to Cover -56.5 @ $1.83

While their chances of progression are now mathematical at best, Australia has to find a way to end their pool play on a high note against a Portuguese side that will be eying off an upset here.

Even with the Aussies well and truly off the pace in their three games to date, that isn’t going to happen here simply because of the talent disparity.

It might not be pretty, it might not be convincing but the Aussies should have this line covered.

Australia to Cover -22.5 @ $1.83

Tonga will have the unfortunate honour of giving South Africa a get-right game as the Springboks look to rebound from their loss to Ireland last weekend.

There’s no need to prophesise the doom of South African rugby after that defeat, they just lost to a really good team and the game was arguably one of the most gripping in the tournament.

On the other side Tonga have been on the end of two fairly hefty defeats and this looks like it will be their third.

South Africa to Cover -39.5 @ $1.83

The final weekend of pool play kicks off in Lyon and for 12 teams it’s their final weekend of action at the Rugby World Cup.

Uruguay is 80 minutes away from a flight back to Montevideo because any hope they had of New Zealand taking this game lightly evaporated with the All Blacks loss to France.

To advance out of the pool, Uruguay needs to win by at least 80 with a four-try bonus point and hope that France beats Italy on Saturday morning, but that’s about as likely as Scottie Pippen lining up at openside flanker for them.

Uruguay have been very competitive for minimal return, but I can’t see them finding a way to pull off a miracle.

New Zealand needs to win with a bonus point to advance out of the pool and their big wins over Namibia and Italy suggest that they are fit and firing ahead of the business end of the tournament.

Even so, the line for this game is way too high, especially when New Zealand could be up by 30 at halftime and take their foot off the accelerator.

Uruguay to Cover +66.5 @ $1.91

Even after they gave up 96 points to New Zealand, Italy can still qualify for the knockout phase of the World Cup with a win over France.

It would be a monumental disaster for the French to go out a month early having entered the World Cup as one of the betting favourites, and frankly I just can’t see it happening.

Italy’s last win over Les Bleus came in February 2013 and since then, they have been on the wrong end of some big scorelines, although their last meeting only finished 29-24 to France back in February.

One advantage working in France’s favour is that by the time this game kicks off, they will know exactly what is required to not only advance but finish on top of the pool.

I’m expecting them to need to win this game outright to ensure top spot and they will look to build some momentum heading into the business end of the tournament.

France to Cover -27.5 @ $1.91

One of the main reasons people were tempering their expectations of Wales heading into the World Cup was because not so long ago they were losing to teams like Georgia.

However even if they were to replicate the effort that 13-12 it would not matter too much because they have qualified for the knockout stage and just need a single bonus point to finish on top of Pool C.

Georgia came so close to turning the pool on its head last week with a near upset of Fiji and they have had their moments in all three games.

With Wales potentially having one eye on the quarters, this might be a bit closer than expected especially with Georgia having nothing to lose as they prepare to depart France.

Georgia to Cover +15.5 @ $1.91

England could really mess with the final makeup of Pool D having already locked up top spot and their priority for this game is to get through it in one piece.

Samoa needs a to win by at least 29 points, score four tries and have the Japan-Argentina game to end in a draw with neither side getting a bonus point, or in short a real world version of the Lloyd Christmas “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” meme.

With England prioritising health and preservation I would not be at all surprised to see this one end up a bit closer than expected as Samoa does everything they can to give themselves some hope, even if it won’t be enough.

Samoa to Cover +20.5 @ $1.83

One of the more fascinating scenarios is set to unfold in Paris on Sunday morning with Ireland and Scotland in a position to ensure both would advance out of Pool B and send the reigning champions home a lot earlier than expected.

With South Africa watching on this weekend from top spot in the pool, Ireland will overtake them with a single bonus point and secure their progression.

The Irish will top the pool with two points from either a win, a draw or scoring four tries plus losing by seven or fewer points.

Scotland simply has to win and even then, it might not be enough as they either need a bonus point from that win or to prevent an Irish bonus point.

Or we could have the final scenario where Scotland wins by at least 21 and both teams get a four-try bonus point from the game, and both teams will advance to the knockouts.

In short both teams had better have a person with a computer on the sideline doing the maths to find out if the current score is enough.

In situations like this where there are several permutations to the match, it’s best just to keep it simple since both sides have plenty to play for.

Ireland has had the wood on Scotland lately with eight straight wins in the head to head rivalry and I’ll back them to get the job done in a tight one.

Ireland to Win by 1-12 @ $2.63

From one of the more complex situations to one of the simple ones, regardless of what happens to Samoa in their game, the winner of this one will advance as the Pool D runner up.

Despite struggling first up, Argentina has responded well in their last two games to get by Samoa and Chile.

Meanwhile Japan did enough in their wins over those two nations either side of a loss to England.

If this was four years ago the market would look very different but with the progression of the Argentine side compared to Japan, I have to take the South Americans to advance here.

Argentina to Cover -14.5 @ $1.91

With very little to play for other than pride, I’ll do us all a favour by keeping this preview simple and short.

Tonga might not be that great, but Romania have been flat out awful at this tournament, conceding points at an alarming rate of over 80 per game.

With that in mind, Tonga should be able to comfortably run away with this one and I’ll happily take them at the line.

Tonga to Cover -38.5 @ $1.91

Now for the one that the truly optimistic segment of Australian rugby fans are holding out hope for a miracle from.

Fiji just neds a solitary bonus point to advance out of Pool C and send Australia home thanks to their hard-earned win three weeks ago.

However you only have to look back to last week for the reason why it won’t be a foregone conclusion, as the Fijians only just got by Georgia in a very nervous showing.

On paper they will have the Portuguese covered several times over, however you have to be impressed with the fight they have shown in these games, stealing a draw against a heavily fancied Georgian side and making life tough in parts against Wales and Australia.

Nerves are going to be a factor for Fiji and while I’m expecting them to win, it won’t be as easy as they would be hoping.

Portugal to Cover +20.5 @ $1.83