2018 Super Rugby Round 11 Preview

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusmail

All four Australian Super Rugby sides were beaten in Round 10 and it doesn’t get much easier for them this weekend.

The Waratahs are on the bye, but the three remaining Australian franchises face very tough assignments.

We have analysed all six games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 Super Rugby round 11 tips can be found below.

Hurricanes Vs Sunwolves

Friday 27 April, 5:35pm, Westpac Stadium

Hurricanes 43 – Sunwolves 15

In a worrying sign for their visitors, the Hurricanes enter this game on a six match winning streak and are showing no signs of slowing down.

They have claimed plenty of big scalps in that time including a monumental win over the Crusaders and that form has them as almost unbackable favourites here.

As for the still winless Sunwolves, they are allowing a concerning 40+ points per game and the Hurricanes will be looking to fine tune their attack.

When playing outside the New Zealand Conference the Hurricanes average points scored goes up significantly but even so, a margin that big is too much for me to back with any confidence.

NO BET

Stormers Vs Rebels

Friday 27 April, 11:05pm, DHL Newlands

Stormers 34 – Rebels 18

Week two of the Rebels’ South African tour and they are in desperate need of a win here to avoid losing touch with the suddenly resurgent Waratahs.

Unfortunately for them they face a Stormers side that has won nine of their last 11 matches at home, losing only to the Lions and Chiefs last season.

After starting off the season so well, the Rebels attack has dried up significantly topping 20 points just once in the last three matches.

Perhaps the only reason for the Rebels to feel confident is the fact the Stormers have lost three straight but even so, I am still backing the better side at home.

Back the Stormers to Cover -14.5 @ $2

Reds Vs Lions

Saturday 28 April, 3:05pm, Suncorp Stadium

Reds 27 – Lions 22

Queensland gets its annual Saturday afternoon game and the one time easy-beat Lions are heavy favourites to come away with a win at Suncorp Stadium.

After starting the season off with a relentless defensive approach, the Reds travel schedule has begun to catch up with them, as they are not playing with the same vigour from the early rounds.

The Lions showed no ill effects of their travel to Australia, blanking the Waratahs last weekend and they will be ready to put on a show with a big win.

Back the Lions to Cover -12.5 @ $1.91

Blues Vs Jaguares

Saturday 28 April, 5:35pm, Eden Park

Blues 13 – Jaguares 20

While the Blues may be struggling to beat the other New Zealand sides, they are still playing well against their non-conference opponents.

Their schedule has seen them take on the mantle of road warriors so far with just two of their first eight games coming at Eden Park.

Travel is not something that bothers the Jaguares as they are used to playing away from home and are in the middle of a four game trip which has already yielded two wins.

The Blues will represent a step up in class over their last two opponents but their style should allow them to keep the game close.

Back the Jaguares to Cover +9.5 @ $1.91

Brumbies Vs Crusaders

Saturday 28 April, 7:45pm, GIO Stadium

Brumbies 8 – Crusaders 21

Facing the defending champions who are on a four match winning streak is not necessarily the remedy for a two match losing streak.

With the Australian Super Rugby losing streak to New Zealand teams now sitting at 35 matches, the Brumbies are considered long shots to end that streak.

The Crusaders are well and truly over their mid-March blip winning their last four matches by a combined total of 120-47.

While we know they are a phenomenal attacking side, their defence in recent weeks has been what is most impressive and with the Brumbies only topping 25 points twice this season, it is hard to see them keeping up with the Crusaders.

Back the Crusaders to Cover -14.5 @ $1.91

Bulls Vs Highlanders

Sunday 29 April, 1:15am, Loftus Versfeld

Bulls 28 – Highlanders 29

The round closes out with the most intriguing contest and the closest matchup from a market perspective.

The Highlanders have built up some good momentum to start the season but will receive a solid test from a Bulls side looking for at least a wild card spot.

However this will be their first trip outside New Zealand all season which does put them at a disadvantage.

At home the Bulls are a solid side going 3-1 so far this year with each win being by a bigger margin than the last.

It should be a tight match that goes down to the wire, do not be surprised if it is very high scoring as both sides love to pile on the points but I am backing the home side to spring an upset here.

Back the Bulls to Win @ $2.60


2017

It looks set to be another tough weekend for Australian teams in Super Rugby.

The Rebels host the Lions, the Reds face a tough challenge against the Chiefs in New Zealand and the Waratahs play the Blues before the Force take on the Sharks in South Africa.

We have analysed all games set to take place in Super Rugby this weekend and below you can find our complete 2017 Super Rugby Round 11 tips.

Hurricanes Vs Stormers

Friday 5 May, 5:35pm, Westpac Stadium

Hurricanes 41 - Stormers 22

The Hurricanes have lost only one game in Super Rugby so far this season and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

They went into the bye with a comprehensive win over the Brumbies and they have now won their past nine games as home favourites, while they are 6-3 against the line.

The Stormers have lost three games on the trot since their positive start to the season and it doesn’t get any easier against the Hurricanes.

They have lost their past two games as away underdogs and they have covered the line in just one of their past four games when being given a start.

The Hurricanes should be able to cruise to another victory and cover the line in the process.

Back The Hurricanes To Beat The Line (-21.5 Points)

Cheetahs Vs Highlanders

Saturday 6 May, 3:00am, Toyota Stadium

Cheetahs 41 - Highlanders 45

The Highlanders have won five games on the trot and they are clear favourites to account for a Cheetahs outfit that has really struggled in recent weeks.

The Highlanders have been able to put some big scores on their rivals in recent weeks and they really do look as though they will be too strong for the Cheetahs.

They have won four of their past five games as away favourites and more impressively they have the same record against the line.

The Cheetahs have not won a game since they bear the Sunwolves almost two months ago and they face another tough challenge this weekend.

They have won only one of their past six games as home underdogs and they are 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

The Highlanders can carry on their winning ways and the line of 13.5 points will not be anywhere near enough.

Back The Highlanders To Beat The Line (-13.5 Points)

Rebels Vs Lions

Saturday 6 May, 3:00pm, AAMI Park

Rebels 10 - Lions 47

The Lions started their Australian Tour with a win over the Force and they are clear favourites to win again against the Rebels this weekend.

The Lions have won six games on the trot and there is plenty to suggest that they should have no problems accounting for the Rebels on Saturday afternoon.

They have won all three of their previous games against the Lions and they 3-0 as away favourites, but they have failed to cover the line in their past three games in this scenario.

The Rebels produced their worst effort of the season to suffer a heavy defeat at the hands of the Kings and it is tough to back them after that performance.

They have won only one of their past six games as home underdogs and they are 2-4 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out of from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

Chiefs Vs Reds

Saturday 6 May, 5:35pm, Yarrow Stadium

Chiefs 46 - Reds 17

The Chiefs have not been particularly convincing in recent weeks, but they still go into this clash with the Reds as clear favourites.

While the Chiefs have won plenty of games, they have been tough to trust from a betting perspective – they have won four of their past five games as home favourites, but they are only 2-3 against the line in this scenario.

A lack of discipline cost the Reds badly against the Waratahs last weekend and they let slip a vital opportunity to score a win over their rivals.

The Reds have lost their past five games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is not much better.

This is another game where it is difficult to find value and this is another fixture that I am happy to stay out of.

No Bet

Waratahs Vs Blues

Saturday 6 May, 7:45pm, Allianz Stadium

Waratahs 33 - Blues 40

The Blues returned to winning form against the Brumbies this weekend and they are clear favourites to account for the Waratahs this weekend.

The Blues have proven to be a very reliable betting proposition in Super Rugby this season as they generally win when they are favourites and lose when they are underdogs.

They have won their past four games as away favourites and they are an impressive 3-1 against the line in this scenario.

The Waratahs showed plenty of fight to record a narrow victory over the Reds, but they face a much tougher assignment against the Blues.

The Waratahs have won one of their past two games as home underdogs, but they have generally been a difficult team to trust from a betting perspective and they struggle to record back-to-back wins.

Backing the Blues as favourites has proven to be a profitable betting play all season long and there is no reason to jump off this weekend.

Back The Blues To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)

Sharks Vs Western Force

Saturday 6 May, 11:05pm, Growthpoint Kings Park

Sharks 37 - Force 21

The Sharks have never lost to the Force and they are clear favourites to continue that this weekend.

It has been an unusual season for the Sharks as they are still a genuine chance of playing finals football, despite the fact that they have not looked particularly impressive.

The Sharks have won six of their past seven games as home favourites, but they are only 3-4 against the line in this scenario.

The Force have struggled to win games so far this season, but they have played some solid football in recent weeks and were not disgraced against the Lions last weekend.

They have not won any of their past seven games as away underdogs, but they are 5-2 against the line in this scenario.

The Sharks have struggled to put away teams so far this season and the Force are a good bet to cover the line with a healthy start.

Back The Force To Beat The Line (+14.5 Points)

Bulls Vs Crusaders

Sunday 7 May, 1:15am, Loftus Versfeld

Bulls 24 - Crusaders 62

The Crusaders are yet to be beaten in Super Rugby this season and they are clear favourites to maintain their unbeaten record this weekend.

The Super Rugby title favourites have scored over 40 points in their past five games and they have been able to run over a number of their rivals so far this season.

They have now won four of their past five games as away favourites, but they are only 2-3 against the line in this scenario.

The Bulls made it two wins on the trot with a fighting victory over the Cheetahs and there is no doubt that they have improved since their shock loss at the hands of the Sunwolves.

They have won five of their past six games in front of their home fans and their record against the Crusaders in South Africa is nothing short of outstanding.

This is a tricky game for the Crusaders and it would not surprise if the Bulls are able to give them a scare this weekend.

Back The Bulls To Beat The Line (+12.5 Points)

Jaguares Vs Sunwolves

Sunday 7 May, 7:40pm, Estadio Jose Amalfitani

Jaguares 46 - Sunwolves 39

The Jaguares are the shortest-priced favourites in Super Rugby this weekend and they are almost unbackable favourites to account for the Sunwolves.

The Jaguares have lost four games on the trot following their promising start to the season and they continue to be a tough side to trust from a betting perspective.

They have won five of their past seven games as home favourites, but they are only 3-4 against the line in this situation.

The Sunwolves were far from disgraced against the Chiefs last weekend and they have played some quality rugby in recent weeks.

They have lost their past nine games as away underdogs, but they have been a profitable 6-3 against the line in this situation.

There isn’t as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Sunwolves can beat the line with the healthy start.

Back The Sunwolves To Beat The Line (+22.5 Points)


2016

The highlight of round 11 of the 2016 Super Rugby season is on Saturday afternoon when the Chiefs and Highlanders do battle in what should be a very exciting New Zealand Derby.

The Sharks and Hurricanes will clash in another crucial game on Saturday night before the round concludes in the early hours of Sunday morning when the Blues travel to South Africa for a clash with the hapless Kings.

Crusaders Vs Reds

Friday 6 May, 5:35pm, AMI Stadium

Crusaders 38 - Reds 5

The Crusaders have now won seven games on the trot and they go into this clash with the Reds as almost unbackable favourites.

The Crusaders have lost just one of their past eight games as favourites and they are a profitable 5-3 against the line as the punter’s elect.

The Reds have played some improved rugby in recent weeks, but they will face a much stiffer challenge against the Crusaders than they did against the Cheetahs.

They have won just one of their past seven games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is a very poor 2-5.

This game could get very ugly and if the Crusaders perform at anywhere near their best they will have no problems covering the line of 19.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Crusaders To Beat The Line (-19.5 Points)

Brumbies Vs Bulls

Friday 6 May, 7:45pm, GIO Stadium

Brumbirs 23 - Bulls 6

This is a crucial game for the Brumbies as they have lost two games on the trot and have been leapfrogged on top of the Australian Conference by the Rebels.

The Brumbies will still go into this game as clear favourites, but they have struggled as the punter’s elect in the past 12 months and they are 2-4 against the line as home favourites.

The Bulls have flown under the radar somewhat, but they have now won five games on the trot.

In saying that, those wins came against the likes of the Reds and the Sunwolves and this is easily the toughest test that they have faced for over a month.

The Bulls have lost their past four games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is a middling 2-2.

This is a match that the market seems to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out of it from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Sunwolves Vs Force

Saturday 7 May, 3:15pm, Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium

Sunwolves 22 - Force 40

This could be one of the best chances that the Sunwolves have to record another win in front of their home fans.

The Sunwolves went into the bye on the back of their first ever Super Rugby victory over the Jaguares, but they will still start this game as clear underdogs.

The Japanese side may have only won a single game, but they have been a profitable betting play as home underdogs and they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario.

This will be just the third time in the past 12 months that the Force have started a game as favourites and they actually lost both of those fixtures, while they have a very poor record against the line in just about every metric.

The Sunwolves are more than capable of pulling off an upset over the hapless Force and the $2.38 currently on offer is a good price.

Recommended Bet: Back The Sunwolves To Win @ $2.38

Chiefs Vs Highlanders

Saturday 7 May, 5:35pm, FMG Stadium

Chiefs 13 - Highlanders 26

This a crucial New Zealand Derby and could be a preview for the Super Rugby finals.

The Chiefs will start this game as clear favourites and will be chasing their eighth straight victory following their narrow victory over the Sharks last weekend.

While the Chiefs have been winning, they have not been a particularly profitable betting side in the past 12 months and they are 2-4 against the line as home favourites.

The Highlanders returned to winning form against the Brumbies last weekend and there is plenty to suggest that they could record an upset win this weekend.

They have won three of their past five games as away underdogs and they have been a profitable team against the line in this scenario.

This will be a very close contest and I am keen to back the Highlanders with a start of 6.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Highlanders To Beat The Line (+6.5 Points)

Waratahs Vs Cheetahs

Saturday 7 May, 7:45pm, Allianz Stadium

Waratahs 21 - Cheetahs 6

The Waratahs have got themselves back in the hunt in the Australian Conference after back-to-back wins over the Force and the Stormers and they are clear favourites to make it three wins on the trot.

The Waratahs have not been a profitable betting team as favourites this season, but they do have a positive record against the line when giving away a big start and they have scored plenty of points in recent weeks.

The Cheetahs were awful against the Reds last weekend and they have won just one of their past six fixtures.

They have won just a single game as away underdogs in the past 12 months and their record against the line in this scenario is a poor 2-4.

The Waratahs should prove far too strong for Cheetahs and they are a great bet to cover the line this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back The Waratahs To Beat The Line (-16.5 Points)

Sharks Vs Hurricanes

Saturday 7 May, 11:00pm, Growthpoint Kings Park

Sharks 32 - Hurricanes 15

There has been very little between the Sharks and the Hurricanes historically and betting suggests that this will be the closest game of the round.

The Hurricanes will start this game as favourites following their big win over the Lions in South Africa last weekend and they have proven a very safe bet as favourites this season, while they are 3-1 against the line as the punter’s elect away from home in the past 12 months.

The Sharks were far from disgraced against the Chiefs last weekend, but they continue to struggle to beat the best teams in the competition.

This will be the first time that they have started a home game as underdogs in the past 12 months, but it should be noted that they have an outstanding record of 6-1 against the line when they are given a start.

You can make an argument for backing both these sides, but I think that the market has got the prices just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Kings Vs Blues

Sunday 8 May, 1:10am, Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium

Kings 18 - Blues 34

This will be the first ever meeting between the Kings and the Blues and the Blues will start this game as dominant favourites.

The Blues scored a tough victory over the Rebels last weekend after beating the Sharks previously and they have now improved their record as favourites in the past 12 months to 3-1-1, but they have not covered the line in their past five games as favourites.

The Kings put up another pitiful performance against the Jaguares last weekend and their record at home is truly horrendous – they are 0-4 in both head to head betting and line betting in this scenario.

While the Blues do have a very poor record against the line in recent seasons, if they play at anywhere near their best they will prove far too strong for the Kings and the line of 25.5 points will not be enough.

Recommended Bet: Back The Blues To Beat The Line (-25.5 Points)