We turn for home with no clear indication of where the premiership could well be headed and that’s a good thing. An even season, full of surprises is what fans and punters alike are after; it means good football and value betting. Amazing to think that the favourites for the Coleman Medal, Rising Star and even Brownlow are shorter after 11 rounds than any team for the flag. Round 12 looks a belter and I highly doubt the premiership picture will be made any clearer.
THE BIG FIVE
- $10k Hawks -51.5 line (v Essendon) @ $1.92
- $5k Bulldogs +3.5 line (v Port Adelaide) @ $1.92
- $4k Adelaide +14.5 line (v West Coast) @ $1.92
- $5k Adelaide (v West Coast) @ $2.85
- $4k Carlton -9.5 line (v St Kilda) @ $1.92
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Who gave Essendon the keys to Friday night football? Go on, hand up.
Now, clean out your desk and get out of AFL HQ. Dead set, what were they thinking? This game promises to be one thing; an advertisement for the Friday night movie. It doesn’t stop people having a punt of course and with Hawthorn already ruling out Sam Mitchell with the likelihood of more to follow, money has come for the Bombers at the line. It opened 65.5 and has had more than 2 goals wiped off to now sit around the 50 point mark. Too short for mine. Have people actually watch Essendon play? No, me neither. It’s too excruciating. Wake me up in 2017 where the Bombers are concerned.
MARKET FLIPPERS
For the third week in succession, Port Adelaide has opened underdogs and been backed into favouritism. The previous two times they have saluted while carrying the weight of money but this week they take on a challenger ahead of them on the ladder and headed for finals. I speak of the injury ravaged Bulldogs. Injury ravaged but seemingly undeterred. Making the trip to the Adelaide Oval fortress is a lot bigger challenge than the comfy surrounds of Etihad, but the opponent sure isn’t the standard of side whom these Dogs defeated last week. The Power have been $2.10 into $1.73 with the Bulldogs $1.75 out to $2.15. An alarming drift by AFL betting standards.
BROTHERLY LOVE
I don’t care how many times they coach against each other, I still love the fact there is twins going head to head. Much like Mrs Scott, I imagine. Anyway, remarkable given the recent form, and the form across the first half of the season, really, but the Chris Scott’s Cats are the favourite to beat Brad’s Kangaroos. It opened a bigger gulf in the market which has tightened in the latter part of the week. Geelong has been $1.70 out to $1.80 largely on the back of Tom Hawkins suspension, while the Roos have firmed from $2.15 to $2.05.
BATTLE OF THE BRIDGE
Worst rivalry name ever but, thankfully, you’d expect the game to reach greater heights. What a cracking betting game it is. Sydney opened slight favourite ($1.85 to $1.95) before steady stream of money for the Giants saw the teams swap prices. Punters came for the Swans as underdogs but, as I type this, we have a toss of the coin game. $1.92 each of two. That could well be different by the time you read this because, basically, who the hell knows? Flip a coin and take a genuine punt.