Night Falls should be at peak fitness third-up and this is a genuine drop in class following his third place finish at Ladbrokes Park last start. On exposed form he does look to have a genuine edge over the rest of this field and with even luck in running from the wide barrier draw he will prove very tough to beat.
He has a big weight on his back, but there is no reason that Zed Em can’t make it back-to-back wins in the Brierly Steeplechase. He has been in excellent form this campaign – he won both the Von Doussa and the Great Eastern Steeplechase at Oakbank – and he has recorded three wins from as many starts at Warrnambool. I like the fact that trainer Patrick Payne gave him a pipe opener over 1600 metres at Cranbourne on Friday and he really does look very well-placed.
Big Hammer has raced well without winning during his campaign to date and it would not surprise if this was the race that Darren Weir had set him for all along. The race wasn’t run to suit when he was beaten at Ladbrokes Park last start and I like the fact that Weir has given him a barrier trial at Warrnambool in between race starts.
Matthew Williams is another trainer that has an excellent record at Warrnambool and it would not surprise if he had Paremuus Boy fairly forward for his first-up assignment. Paremuus Boy was able to string together three wins in impressive fashion during his maiden racing campaign and he loves the sting out of the track. He is massively over the odds at $26 and a great each-way bet.