NFL Week 1 Preview

The season kicks off with a genuine Super Bowl LX rematch, and it’s hard to script a better opener than that. Seattle got the job done last time out, running out 29-13 winners, but the storyline heading into this one is A.J. Brown’s Patriots debut, reuniting with Mike Vrabel after his contract drama finally got resolved. He’ll line up against Christian Gonzalez, fresh off a big new deal, who held him to just 27 yards in the Super Bowl.

Seattle’s secondary isn’t at full strength with Okada and Emmanwori both banged up, and with Kenneth Walker gone in free agency, it’s Jarrian Price stepping in as the lead back with an injured Zach Charbonnet sitting out the start of the season

Seattle are the defending champs, and I don’t think people are giving them enough credit for it. I’m backing them to make a statement in this one. The 12s celebrate the banner, the ring and a BIG victory.

Australia’s first-ever regular season NFL game, and it’s not some exhibition dead-rubber either, this is a genuine NFC West heavyweight clash. Aaron Donald has come out of retirement on a limited-game deal but he will not be travelling with the team however new recruit and sack record holder Myles Garrett is. Matthew Stafford arrives off an MVP-calibre year, while on the other side Brock Purdy has a fresh new weapon in Mike Evans and George Kittle back from his Achilles injury. The Rams also have a rebuilt secondary with McDuffie and Watson in the fold.

The travel angle is what swings it for me here. The Rams only land in Melbourne about twenty-four hours before kickoff, while the Niners arrived a full week early to prepare properly. That has me leaning against the grain in this one. San Francisco’s receiving room has had its injury issues, but with Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey both trending healthy with Evans and rookie Stribling set to open things up, I think the Niners pull off the upset in a tight one.

Ben Johnson had a stellar debut season in Chicago, going 11-6 and winning the NFC North with Caleb Williams taking a real step forward. Bryce Young has shown gradual improvement of his own, and Carolina snuck into the playoffs at 8-9 to win a weak NFC South.

There’s a real irony in Carolina having traded away the picks that ended up becoming Caleb Williams and a win here would at least give them some minor bragging rights. But I think Chicago dominates this one. Carolina’s defense has some sneaky good pieces at corner and linebacker, but the receiver duo of Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III in Chicago is just too much to handle.

Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen have this Jaguars offense trending the right way, and the wide receiver room looks a lot like the committee approach that’s worked so well in Green Bay. On the other side, Browns are doing Browns things with the announcement of Watson over Shedeur Sanders. Cleveland made some fun picks in the draft and has some interesting pieces but they say QB is the most important position in all of  sports for a reason and the Browns still don’t know who there’s will be for the year.

I’m bullish on Jacksonville this season, that receiver room has some juice, and Lawrence looks like he’s taken a leap. The Browns picture is bleak by comparison, Watson was booed in the preseason and fans are screaming for Sanders to get the keys. He’ll get them by week 4.

Detroit heads into the year with its third offensive coordinator in three years in Drew Petzing, and they’ve shifted Penei Sewell out to left tackle to help paper over the cracks. Outside of that it is a pretty much business as usual with health on defence the big tick and although they let Montgomery leave they did add Pacheco to provide a heavier punch to compliment what we all expect to be a massive year for Jamyr Gibbs.

Tyler Shough has looked genuinely impressive at quarterback for the Saints, and with Chris Olave looking healthy and a new running back addition in Travis Etienne, there’s more juice in this offense than people expect, even if rookie WR Tyson is out for the first few weeks.

Still, Detroit have talent littered across the roster even with all the coordinator turnover, and Jared Goff is as steady as they come.

Mike McCarthy makes his Steelers head coaching debut, reuniting with Aaron Rodgers despite their well-documented Green Bay fallout. Atlanta is starting Tua Tagovailoa over a recovering Michael Penix Jr., and they’re missing both of their top two edge rushers, with Walker out for the season and Pearce suspended for eight games.

Pittsburgh feels stuck in that perpetual eight-and-nine mediocrity, and I question what their actual identity is this year, even with the Michael Pittman addition at receiver. Both of these franchises have a reputation as poor drafters as of late, and I wouldn’t be shocked if both are picking in the top ten again next year.

One thing I do like is Rico Dowdle taking the RB1 spot from Warren sooner rather than later for the Steelers.

Cam Ward heads into year two after being sacked a staggering 55 times as a rookie, with a rebuilt offensive line in front of him now and Robert Salah as the new HC, things should get better, emphasis on “should”.

On the other side, the Jets have added front-seven pieces in Bailey and Ossai. Geno Smith returns to the Jets’ after a rough 2-13 season with the Raiders that included a league-worst 17 interceptions. His days are surely numbered already.

My honest take here is that Cam Ward could turn into a bust, and I think both of these teams are genuinely bad, both eyeing that stacked 2027 quarterback draft class. Carnell Tate is a nice piece for Tennessee but not nearly enough on his own. I’d bet “interim head coach” appears for one of these teams by the trade deadline.

Daniel Jones gets his first live action since tearing his Achilles, now throwing to Keenan Allen in Indianapolis. Baltimore rolls out three new starters on the interior offensive line and a new defensive coordinator in Jesse Minter.

I’m skeptical of the Ravens sliding into this season as the clear favourites everyone assumes. The coaching staff is largely untested, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry both carry real injury risk at this point, and the AFC North is only getting tighter with Cincinnati improved and Pittsburgh capable of stealing games. I do like Baltimore’s receiver additions in rookies Jakobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt though.

On the Colts side, I’m worried Sauce Gardner got exposed a bit in the preseason, that secondary is thin, plus I still have real doubts about how much of that Daniel Jones season was real of just a fluke.

Josh Allen gets his revenge game after the Texans beat Buffalo twice last season, including an eight-sack, 2 INT demolition. New Bills head coach Joe Brady takes over, walking into a matchup against Houston’s genuinely elite defense, while C.J. Stroud needs a bounce-back year with contract pressure building.

D.J. Moore gives Allen a proper veteran target but I’m expecting a run-first affair for both sides with plenty of volume for Cook and Montgomery. Houston’s defense is the scarier unit here, but I’m backing Allen’s ceiling over Stroud’s in a shootout-adjacent, mistake-filled game.

Joe Burrow is back and healthy after the toe injury that cost him nine games last season, and Cincinnati have bolstered the defensive front with Dexter Lawrence. We all expect this Bengals team to do well when Burrow is upright and though their defence did need some help, the O-line still looks like they’re being paid to get Burrow killed.

On the other side we have Baker Mayfield and as the saying goes – hell hath no fury like a Baker scorn. THe bucs dragged their feet in negotiations so now Mayfield heads into the season with a trademark chip on his shoulder ready to have a big year and earn an even bigger bag (possibly elsewhere).  Egbuka is recovering from turf toe but looks good to go whilst I like the only Buc to stay healthy all off season, Chris Godwin as a healthy sleeper for a touchdown.

Turnovers feel like the deciding factor in this one. Cincinnati need a strong start after a couple of disappointing seasons, and I think Burrow delivers.

Malik Willis gets his first career start for a Dolphins team under new head coach Jeff Hafley, the former Green Bay defensive coordinator trying to recreate that same defensive magic in Miami. Maxx Crosby and revamped Raiders defence lines up against a Miami offensive line that looks genuinely shaky.

Miami’s receiver room might be the worst and most inexperienced in the league right now (Browns also close), and it’s hard to shake the feeling this team is in tank mode chasing a quarterback of the future. Las Vegas, meanwhile, is starting with Kirk Cousins over rookie Fernando Mendoza, and honestly, I get it but this would’ve been a dream starting matchup for a rookie QB. This one’s pure chaos-value viewing.

Addition by subtraction seems to be the buzzword, and even as a Cowboys fan, it’s hard to find much to fault with this Eagles team. Jalen Hurts is a tremendous quarterback, and without the Brown drama hanging over the offense, I think Philadelphia is right up there again this year, annoyingly. 

Washington, on the other hand, is one of those teams where it’s tough to find much to like. Jayden Daniels can’t stay healthy, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he doesn’t make it through the full season. Washington could be the first team this year to lose their head coach and with a banged up O-line, Daniels may not make it to Thanksgiving. Not a lot to like here.

Philadelphia just rolls Washington and reminds everyone they’re SB contenders.

Mike McDaniel is now the Chargers’ offensive coordinator, and it’s an exciting new-look offense as a result but in classic Chargers fashion they’ve lost a lineman for the season in Tyler Biadasz but Alt &Slater are good to go.

Arizona have surprisingly named rookie Jeremiah Love as their RB2, more fantasy-relevant than anything else. I would have a higher opinion of the Cards if they were starting Carson Beck over Jacoby Brissett given how Beck performed and led in the preseason and his college experience. I’ve also got genuine concerns about Marvin Harrison Jr.’s ceiling if the quarterback situation doesn’t sort itself out.

Herbert’s got his own prove-it narrative, still without a playoff win despite all the draft hype and this McDaniel offence could blow the doors off a stuttering Arizona.

Minnesota has moved on from the McCarthy era and now hands the keys to Kyler Murray while Micah Parsons’ absence looms large over Green Bay’s pass rush.

Murray had a disappointing end to his time in Arizona, but now he’s got Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to throw to, and that shotgun-heavy scheme suits his height and dual-threat ability nicely. Minnesota’s defense looks strong, and Green Bay’s pass rush takes a real hit without Parsons.

Still, I’m siding with Green Bay’s proven system and Jordan Love’s experience over the question marks at the Vikings.

The Sunday Night Football opener, and it’s John Harbaugh’s first game as Giants head coach. Dak Prescott goes up against Jaxson Dart, who put together a promising rookie year with over 2,000 passing yards and 15 touchdowns, though he couldn’t stay out of the blue tent with injury.

As a Cowboys fan, I think Dallas should win this, but losing left guard Tyler Smith for four to six weeks with a broken thumb is a huge blow. That left side has been an issue for Dallas for a couple of years now, and Smith is a top-three-or-five guard in the league.

Can the last placed defense be middle-of-the-road this year? They’ve added Caleb Downs, one of the best pieces in the draft, and brought in new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, who did great work turning no-names into stars in that Philadelphia system.  New York, on the other hand, has a huge upgrade at head coach in Harbaugh and has done good work building a strong defensive line that could make life difficult running the ball. 

The last time these two met, it went to overtime and was decided by an Aubrey field goal. Between the O-line injury and an unfamiliar wave of hype around the Giants, I’m genuinely a little anxious about this one. I think it ends up closer than people expect.

I’ll back the Cowboys, but this could be a fascinating way to kick off the season for both teams.

The Week 1 finale, a genuine AFC West rivalry to close out the slate. Denver added Jaylen Waddle in a blockbuster trade to open up their offense, and if by some miracle Patrick Mahomes comes back playing at his usual superhuman level given the recovery timeline off that ACL tear, Kansas City will be competitive all year the way they always seem to be, even if they’re not quite the juggernaut of old.

This is a great way to close out Week 1, and I think it could genuinely be a shootout, even though I’d rate Denver’s defense as the better unit. They had top sack numbers as a defense last year and allowed very few as an offensive line, which is about as good a combination as you can ask for.

The Broncos won a lot of tight, close games last year in the final minute, and the usual argument is regression is coming. I actually think the opposite, I think Denver could be onto something special. For Kansas City, this might be the last year we see Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice is back to start the season, and I’m keen to see more out of rookie Cyrus Allen, who impressed in the preseason.

The big question mark is what Mahomes looks like off the back of a serious injury. If we’re drawing Tom Brady comparisons, Brady came back from his own injury and had another Hall of Fame stretch. Is that on the cards for Mahomes? Beat your rival in Week 1 and I’ll believe it.

I’m taking the Broncos.