The most anticipated fight of 2015 is finally here, with Jose Aldo set to take on Conor McGregor in a UFC Featherweight Championship unification bout on Sunday afternoon (AEST).
This has been one of the most hyped fights in UFC history and it only gained more interest after Jose Aldo pulled out of their scheduled bout in July and Conor McGregor knocked out Chad Mendes in brutal fashion to score the interim belt.
There is not one but two Championship fights on this card, with Chris Weidman set to defend against Luke Rockhold, and we have analysed the two title bouts as well as the three undercard fights to come up with the best betting plays.
Main Event
Jose Aldo vs Conor McGregor For the Undisputed UFC Featherweight Championship
This is arguably the most intriguing fight in the recent history of the UFC. It is clear that there is no love lost between Aldo and McGregor, but even when you take out the personality stakes this is still an extremely interesting fight. Aldo is the only Featherweight Champion in UFC history and he has never really looked like getting beaten. The Brazilian is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the world and it is very hard to find any issues with his game. However, McGregor is an extremely dangerous boxer and he has the ability to end any fight with a single punch. The Irishmen also has outstanding footwork and he can play defence when he has to – as we saw when he beat Mendes earlier in the year. While I have a great deal of respect for McGregor, it is fair to say that the market may have overreacted to his win over Mendes. Aldo is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world and at his crazy price of $2.10 he represents simply outstanding value.
Co-Main Event
Chris Weidman vs Luke Rockhold For the UFC Middleweight Championship
This fight could definitely main-event its own card and it is another extremely intriguing bout. Unlike Aldo and McGregor, there are plenty of similarities between Weidman and Rockhold. Weidman has now beaten Anderson Silva twice and defended his title against Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort, but it is still fair to say that his ability is underrated. Rockhold has worked his way through the grades in the UFC and his ability on the mat is simply outstanding, which can be seen with his three submission victories on the trot. This is another fight that could go either way, but I have to give a slight edge to Rockhold because he has more way that he can win the fight. At $2.20 Rockhold represents a good edge.
Undercard
Ronaldo Souza vs Yoel Romero
This is another bout between two fighters that are fairly evenly matched. Souza is one of the best grapplers in the world and he heads into this fight on the back of five straight victories in the UFC. A win here would get him right in the title hunt. Romero is a former Olympic wrestler, but he also has extremely dangerous hands and he brutally disposed of Lyoto Machida in July. This fight should be an absolute ripper and is another one where we have to lean to the underdog, with Romero a touch of value at $2.25.
Demian Maia vs Gunnar Nelson
Demian Maia has been around for a very long time, but at 38 years of age he is still right up there with some of the best welterweights in the world. Nelson started his UFC career with a bang, but he hit a roadblock when he was beaten by Rick Story, which exposed a number of holes in his game. Nelson is a strong grappler, but he has never fought anybody as competent on the ground as Maia and we have to lean to the veteran at his current quote of $1.73.
Max Holloway vs Jeremy Stephens
Max Holloway has not been beaten since Conor McGregor beat him back in 2013 and he has strung together a number of consistent performances that has him towards the top of the rankings in the featherweight division. Stephens has been an inconsistent performer since he made his UFC debut back in 2007 and many consider him lucky to still have a job. Stephens is a decent boxer, but Holloway is very well-rounded and he should have far too many weapons for his rival.