The Toorak Handicap is always one of the best betting races of the 2016 Spring Racing Carnival and that will be the case again on Saturday.
He’s Our Rokkii has opened us a narrow favourite and there are a host of very talented horses that are available at juicy odds to take out one of four Group 1 events on the Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas Day card.
Can He’s Our Rokkii record a maiden win at Group 1 level and where will his challenges come from? I have analysed every horse in the Toorak Handicap field and you can find my thoughts on all 13 runners below.
Awesome Rock
Awesome Rock continues to be an inconsistent performer. He finished a flat fifth in the Underwood Stakes after producing a career best performance in the Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes and he really doesn’t get into this race particularly well in at the weights. He needs a new career peak to win this race.
Tosen Stardom
Tosen Stardom is the x-factor in the Toorak Handicap and a tough horse to assess. He returned to the races with a fast-finishing fourth in the Dato’ Tan Chin Stakes, but he has had issues since and he missed the George Main Stakes. His best form is definitely good enough to be more than competitive in this race, but whether he is ready to do that is the question. You have to respect him and looks to have found his right price.
Bon Aurum
Bon Aurum won the Sir Rupert Clarke in impressive fashion, but this is a much tougher assignment. He got the perfect run in transit in the Toorak Handicap and he rises in weight significantly. Bon Aurum has already produced two career-best performances this preparation and he will need a third to win this race. He looks a touch of unders at his current price.
He’s Our Rokkii
He’s Our Rokkii is the horse to beat in the Toorak Handicap. He has not been racing in Group company, but he has won very impressive time in his two race starts this preparation and he has now won five of his past six starts. There is no doubt that he is ready for the mile after two tough runs at 1400 metres and with even luck he should be able to claim a maiden Group 1 victory before he heads on to bigger and better things.
Jacquinot Bay
It has been a while between wins for Jacquinot Bay, but at nine-years-olds he is racing in close to career best form. He was not far away in both the Makybe Diva Stakes and the Underwood Stakes, which are both better races than this. Damian Lane will likely have no options, but to cross this field and take up the running and if he does that Jacquinot Bay will have every possible chance to finish in the placings. The $7 available for him to finish in the placings is a huge price.
Royal Rapture
Royal Rapture is one of the many examples of just how good a trainer that Royal Rapture is. Royal Rapture has been up and racing since March, but he just keeps on producing career best performance and he deserves his opportunity in a race of this quality. He will make his own luck right on the speed with Mark Zahra in the saddle and there is definite value at his current price of $8.50.
Counterattack
It is tough to know what to make of Counterattack. He did not have a great deal of luck in running in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, but he was probably entitled to finish off better than he did. Stringing together high-quality performances has been an issue for him and he is unproven at a mile. It is easy to see him winning this race, but I think that you have to gamble against him at the current price.
Miss Rose De Lago
I don’t know what has happened to Miss Rose De Lago. She looked set for a big spring when she won the P.B. Lawrence Stakes first-up, but she was horrid in the Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes and disappointing again in the Stocks Stakes. It would take a big reversal of form for her to win this race.
Cosmic Cube
Cosmic Cube comes into this race off a distant third in what was a low-rating edition of the Shannon Stakes. He is yet to really show any sign that he is capable of being competitive at this level.
Thames Court
Thames Court has been in outstanding form and there has already been money for her in the lead-up to the Toorak Handicap. She produced a career best performance in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and she has no weight on her back once again, but she still needs to go to another level to win this race. I would not be surprised to see her finish in the placings and the Myer Classic shapes as the perfect race for her.
Great Esteem
Great Esteem was predictably outclassed behind Winx in the George Main Stakes. This looks too tough for him once again.
Moral Victory
Moral Victory is another horse that is racing in career best form and there was nothing wrong with his victory in the Shannon Stakes. There is still a question mark over the form coming out of that race and he will need to improve again to be any chance in the Toorak Handicap, which I am not sure he is capable of doing at this stage of his career.
Tivaci
There was plenty of money for Tivaci in the lead-up to the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and he was slightly flat in sixth. It is tough to see him turning the tables on the horses that beat him in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, but he is capable of a running out a strong 1600 metres and he should finish in the top six again.