Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Prediction, Tips & Odds

The minor premiers and overwhelming title favourites take the unlikely giant-killers in Sunday’s second prelim.  

FORM: The Panthers hit the finals on a three-game winning streak and got off to a flyer in the qualifying final against the Roosters, but they had to dig deep to snatch a 19-12 win. The minor premiers and 8.5-point favourites only went ahead with 10 minutes to go and sealed it with a try in the dying seconds. 

Beset by injuries, the Knights lost their last two regular-season games – conceding 90 points in doing so – but have found a new lease of life in the finals.  

After outenthusing Souths 20-10 in week one, the seventh-placed outfit produced a courageous 12-10 victory over the Warriors in front of more than 48,000 supporters in Auckland. A titanic defensive effort and flashes of brilliance from Ponga, Best and co. got the underdogs over the line.  

INS AND OUTS: Nathan Cleary will line up despite suffering a foot injury against the Roosters. The Panthers have retained Jack Cole at five-eighth, with the returning Jack Cogger in the No.14. Blaize Talagi stays at centre with Luke Garner back on a six-man bench.  

The Knights have named an unchanged 19-man squad. Dylan Lucas made an incredible return from a fractured ankle suffered only a couple of months ago, successfully getting through 14 minutes off the pine against the Warriors.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Dylan Edwards was the best player on the field in the Panthers’ qualifying final win and has had an enormous season. It’s no secret opposing fullback Kalyn Ponga is the Knights’ most important player and chief playmaker.  

HISTORY: The Panthers have won nine of their last 10 against the Knights, whose sole victory was against an Origin-depleted opponent midway through 2025. Edwards scored a hat-trick and Brian To’o a double in the Panthers’ 44-12 win at Newcastle in Round 8 this season.  

KEY STAT: Brian To’o boasts nine tries in nine appearances against the Knights. Dom Young and Greg Marzhew have just one try between them in 11 combined games for the Knights against the Panthers.   

The Panthers have won their last three preliminary finals at Accor Stadium by a combined 96 points to 22.  

VERDICT: It’s a mismatch on the surface, with the 2025 wooden spooners overachieving just by reaching the finals – then exceeding all expectations with a pair of gutsy finals upsets.  

This is just the Knights’ second prelim since winning the 2001 premiership, having also got there from seventh under Wayne Bennett in 2013. Few give them a chance of joining the 2014 Bulldogs and 2017 Cowboys as the only teams to reach a grand final from outside the top four under this finals format.  

But Justin Holbrook’s side has tapped into something special this September, adding defensive steel and belief to their trademark attacking flair. Their three-quarter line is on fire and Ponga remains as dangerous as ever. 

The Panthers are finals specialists, winning 15 of their last 16 games, though that loss was in last year’s prelim, unravelling late against the Broncos.  

They weren’t exactly convincing against the Roosters – despite displaying several of their championship qualities – and arguably haven’t delivered their ruthless best since May. Then there’s a cloud over Nathan Cleary due to a foot injury.  

Nevertheless, it’s hard seeing the Panthers getting tipped up – the Knights aren’t without hope, but it would be one of the all-time prelim boilovers. Turn up with the same resolve and fearlessness they have in the past fortnight, however, and it could be close enough to make the title favourites nervous.  

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRADMAN BEST ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN TO’O ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DYLAN EDWARDS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $127.63