It has been a hell of a roller-coaster ride and the circus that has been the 2016 US Presidential Election campaign is finally almost over.
Hilary Clinton looked as though she was going to race away to a comfortable victory when scandal after scandal kept hitting Donald Trump a month ago, but the return of Clinton’s private e-mail server saga has tightened up the race once again.
We have betting markets available for every single state and below you can find our thoughts for the best betting plays across our incredible range of markets.
Election Winner
Clinton remains a clear favourite in the 2016 US Presidential Election Winner market at a quote of $1.20, while Trump is priced at $4.50 to claim the Oval Office.
As sad as it is to admit, all the value lies with Trump.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website predicted the winner of every single state and the District Of Columbia in the 2012 US Presidential election and his model believes that Trump still has a 35 percent chance of becoming President.
That equates to odds of $2.86 and that is substantially better value than the $4.50 that is currently on offer.
In contrast, the FiveThirtyEight model still has Clinton as a clear favourite but more of $1.55 chance than the current $1.20 on offer.
If you can possible stomach it, betting on Donald Trump to become the next President Of The United States is actually a value betting play.
Back Donald Trump To Win The 2016 US Presidential Election @ $4.50
Electoral College Votes Of The Winner
There is plenty of value in this betting market.
Clinton to win the election with between 310 to 329 Electoral College votes is a clear favourite from Clinton with 330 to 349 Electoral College Votes and Clinton with 290 to 309 Electoral College Votes.
Silver’s model has Clinton winning just over 290 Electoral College votes and the $8 for Clinton to win 290 to 309 Electoral College Votes is great value for punters that are keen to avoid the Trump bandwagon.
Back Clinton To Win 290 to 309 Electoral College Votes @ $8
Individual State Previews
The majority of the states in the 2016 US Presidential will be extremely one-sided and there are only a handful of swing states that will produce the result of the election.
It in these competitive seats that we will focus on from a betting perspective and sadly it is Trump that represents all the betting value.
Arizona
The market looks to have got Arizona just about right.
Arizona have voted for the Democratic candidate just once since 1948 – when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Doll – and it is a Trump that is a clear favourite to take the state at a price of $1.40.
The FiveThirtyEight model has Trump priced at about the $1.35 mark and there is no real value on offer.
No Bet
Florida
Florida is always one of the most important swing states and it has voted with the winner in nine of the past 10 elections – with the state voting against Bill Clinton when he won the Presidency in 1992.
Clinton is currently a $1.57 favourite to win the state of Florida, but this is much more of a toss-up than that price suggests.
FiveThirtyEight actually has Trump as a very narrow favourite and that means that there is genuine value at his current price of $2.25.
Back Trump To Win Florida @ $2.25
Iowa
Iowa only has six Electoral College votes, but those could be crucial in a very tight election.
Iowa has voted with the Election in five of the past six elections and since 1984 has only voted for a Republican candidate once – when George W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004.
The polls in Iowa have swung back and forths throughout this entire campaign, but it Trump that now has a clear lead, but there is no value at his current price of $1.33 as the FiveThirtyEight model has him rated as a $1.38 chance.
No Bet
Nevada
Nevada also has just the six electoral votes on offer, but it has voted with the winner in the past nine Presidential elections.
It is Nevada that might be the best value option of the entire election.
The FiveThirtyEight model rates the state as a genuine coin toss and there is currently $4 available for Trump to win the state.
That is outstanding value and probably the best bet of the bunch.
Back Trump To Win Nevada @ $4
New Hampshire
New Hampshire was once a Republican stronghold, but it has voted Democrats at five of the past six US Presidential elections – with the states swing to George W. Bush in 2000 proving crucial.
It would be a big surprise if the state swung back to the Republicans again and of all the swing states it looks like the safest for Clinton.
There is not a great deal of value at her current price of $1.40, but it is a fairly safe bet.
Back Clinton To Win New Hampshire @ $1.40
North Carolina
North Carolina is rated as the third most likely state to tip the result of the 2016 US Presidential Election – Florida is the clear leader – and is expected to be more important than typical bellwether states like Ohio.
Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win the state since 1976 when he beat John McCain in 2008, but he lost the state to Mitt Romney in 2012.
Clinton is a narrow favourite in betting markets, but this is another state that the FiveThirtyEight model has as a coin toss and the $2 price of Trump is almost his exact right odds.
There is no real betting value, but this is still a state to watch out for.
No Bet
Ohio
Ohio is America’s bellwether state and has been carried by the winner in every election since 1964, with the Buckeye state proving the difference in the 2004 US Presidential Election.
The state may not end up being as important as it has been at recent elections and it is Trump that is a clear favourite at a quote of $1.44.
This is right in line with the FiveThirtyEight model and this is another state that does not offer any value from a betting standpoint.
No Bet
Utah
Utah is one of the most interesting states in the 2016 US Presidential election as it includes popular independent Evan McMullin.
Utah has been carried by the Republican candidate in every election since 1964, but Donald Trump is not popular with Mormons who make up the majority of the state.
McMullin should poll well, but he only has a slim 11 percent chance of carrying the state and his likely impact is being overstated in betting.
Trump is currently a $1.29 favourite, but his is more of a $1.15 chance and it is very tough to see him losing the state.
No Bet