There are a number of promising horses in what looks like it could be a very strong form race. Aljawzaa did not have a great deal of luck when she finished third at Caulfield last start and the form coming out of that race has been excellent. On exposed form she does look to have a clear edge over the rest of this field and she maps to get a lovely trail into the race with Regan Bayliss in the saddle. She can win this race on the way to bigger and better things.
2 Units Aljawzaa
Kilimanjaro was a tough disappointing second-up, but the race was simply not run too suit and he didn’t have the turn-of-foot to go with his rivals late. The step-up in trip to 2530 metres is ideal for him and it would not surprise if Beau Mertens elects to press forward and take up the running. There is no doubt that he has more upside than the rest of this field – he finished fourth in an Irish Derby – and I am willing to give him another chance at the current price.
1.5 Units Kilimanjaro
Tally and Fanatic are the two class horses in this field, but there is no doubt that they will both be better over further. This does look like a lovely race for Sovereign Nation. He won well at Flemington first-up over this track and distance and he got too far back in the Winter Championship Final to narrowly miss. Regan Bayliss can settle him much closer to the speed from barrier four and he maps to get a lovely trail into the race just behind the leaders. He has a fitness edge over the majority of his main rivals and has an excellent opportunity to return to winning form.
3 Units Sovereign Nation
You can make a case for the majority of the field in this race and it is probably the toughest betting race of the day. Jaminzah, Cosmic Lights, Portion Control, Riyadh and Black Sheep can all win without surprising and there are simply too many winning chances to bet in this race with any real confidence.
No Bet
Samovare made her Melbourne racing debut with a close second behind Pedrena in June and she is deserving of her status as a short-priced favourite. She beat the talented Ellicazoom to win the Western Australian Championship Stakes at Ascot in November last year and she is a horse that does have plenty of upside. This really is not the strongest field and if she is going to be a player during the 2017 Spring Racing Carnival she should win this race very comfortably.
3.5 Units Samovare
This is one of the most open betting races of the day. Kilmacurragh was gallant in defeat when he led last start at Ladbrokes Park and he is sure to take plenty of benefit out of that run. This is still short of his pet trip, but he is capable of a high-rating performance on his day and he should be able to take up the running comfortably. There is not a great deal of quality in this field and he is one of the only horses with any real upside.
1.5 Units Kilmacurragh
This is a very interesting edition of the Aurie’s Star Handicap. The best form of both Hey Doc and I Am A Star would give them a clear edge over the rest of this field, but the question is whether either is capable of producing at that level first-up. Historically, both have taken a run before they are able to perform at anywhere near their best and with big Spring campaigns ahead of both of them that could be the case again.
Cannyescent does have a clear fitness edge over his main rivals and he has recorded four wins from five start this preparation. He has been freshened up since his win at Flemington last start and he is a horse that generally does produce his best form when he is kept on the fresh side. He is a proven winner and with the fitness edge on his side can claim a maiden black-type win.
1.5 Units Cannyescent
Crocodile Rock is a horse with an enormous amount of upside and he is set to start this race as a clear favourites. There is no doubt that he is a horse with ability and he has recorded three wins from his five race starts, but the question is whether you are willing to take $2.70 about a stayer that has not run since January. I personally am not willing to do that as there are simply too many queries. That doesn’t mean that I want to bet against Crocodile Rock and this is a race that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.
No Bet
There are three genuine 1000 metre specialists in this field and I am happy to back all three of them at their current prices. Runson has five wins from his eight race starts over 1000 metres and he has a number of high-rating performances on his racing resume that are more than good enough to win this race. He has two wins from two first-up starts.
Rocket Tommy was something of a revelation during the Autumn and he has six wins from his nine starts over 1000 metres. He produced a career best performance to win at Flemington in March and he does have the benefit of Damien Oliver in the saddle.
Gun Case has been freshened up since his win at Ladbrokes Park in July and he does have a fitness edge over the rest of the leading chances. He is well and truly over the odds at his current quote of $13.
1.5 Units Runson
1.5 Units Rocket Tommy
1 Unit Gun Case