Queenslanders head to the polls for the second time in under three years this Saturday.
The past two elections in the sunshine state have produced some stellar results – the LNP’s overwhelming victory in 2012 winning 78 seats to only seven for Labor only to have the ALP achieve one of the greatest electoral upsets in history in 2015 with a 37 seat swing and able to form a minority government. It’s fair to say elections in Queensland tend to produce some major upsets.
With the polls neck and neck, the likes of One Nation returning as a major player and a trend of people becoming tired of the major parties we could be in for yet another series of interesting results when the votes are counted this Saturday.
Ladbrokes has a number of markets for this election including the party of the premier, hung parliament and individual seats and there are many competitive markets.
In this blog we’ve broken the individual seats we think that Labor, The LNP, One Nation and other minor parties and independents that are a chance to win this Saturday.
Overall
The market for the party of Premier has been tight before and during the election campaign. As of Tuesday, our bookies had both the ALP and LNP dead even at $1.88. Both punters and pollsters haven’t been able to split just who will win the election on Saturday, it could also be likely we may not know the result come election night.
Hung Parliament
Given the fact that the likes of One Nation have returned as a major player in Queensland in this election it may be a contributing factor in the close betting market between Labor and the LNP. As a result of this, a hung parliament on election night is now looking as the most likely result.
Prior to the election being called, you could get $3 on a hung parliament and as of now it has gone into $1.95 with the chances of a majority on election night still favourite at $1.78.
With more minor parties and Independents likely to win seats a Hung Parliament is your best bet in this market.
BACK THE HUNG PARLIAMENT @ $1.95
LABOR
The incumbent Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Labor will need to not only retain the 44 seats they won in the 2015 Queensland election but also gain three more if they are to govern in their own right. Winning re-election from a minority government isn’t easy but it’s been done before in 2001 with then Labor Premier Peter Beattie winning re-election and being able to govern in their own right.
In the seat of Whitsunday currently held by the LNP by a margin of 0.6% could be a potential gain for Labor if what the market and polls are suggesting. Depending on preference flow of minor party and independent candidates the seat could be one that falls Labor’s way on Saturday.
BACK LABOR TO WIN WHITSUNDAY @ $1.50
Everton, a seat which covers some of Brisbane’s Northern suburbs is currently held by the LNP by former NRL referee Tim Mander could be another seat that Labor could gain. The LNP only hold the seat by a 2.0% margin and has recently undergone redistribution by the electoral commission. Even though it’s a marginal seat only three candidates are running. The LNP, Labor and The Greens. If the Labor primary can increase and Green preferences flow to them Everton may be a gain for the ALP.
BACK LABOR TO WIN EVERTON @ $2.00
Gaven, a hinterland electorate on the Northern Part of the Gold Coast is currently held by the LNP on a 2.8% margin. The LNP has tended to have a stranglehold on Gold Coast seats and this could be Labor’s best chance to gain a seat in the region. Like Everton, there are only three candidates running in this seat – LNP, Labor and The Greens. If Labor can increase its primary vote and Green preferences go its way the party could win the seat for the first time since 2006.
BACK LABOR TO WIN GAVEN @ $2.40
A new electorate comes into play after redistribution from the Queensland Electoral Commission – Maiwar taking in parts of the Western suburbs of Brisbane. Taking in parts of the previous seats of Mt Coot-tha and Indooroopilly. The LNP Shadow treasurer and previous member of the old electorate Scott Emerson is contesting this seat with a margin of around 3%. However, bringing in parts of the Mt-Cooth-ha electorate which tended to swing to Labor could challenge Emmerson and be another potential seat for the ALP to pick up.
BACK LABOR TO WIN MAIWAR @ $3.00
LIBERAL NATIONAL PARTY (LNP)
A staple seat of the old Queensland National Party the seat has seen it become more marginal in recent elections. The likes of Katter’s Australia Party and One Nation gaining ground in the electorate it covers could again prove challenging for the incumbent LNP member but they should be able to retain it.
BACK LNP TO WIN HITCHENBROOK @ $1.62
Pumiestone won by Rick Williams for Labor at the 2015 election could be one of the seats that goes down to the wire this Saturday. The sitting member, Williams was dumped by the Labor party just before the election was called and is running again this time as an independent. The betting market has been tight for this seat between both the LNP and Labor. Redistribution has seen this to be an LNP seat with a 0.1% margin.
BACK LNP TO WIN PUMIESTONE @ $1.91
Keppel may be another LNP gain this election. Although won back by Labor at the 2015 election with a 11.2% swing against the LNP, they go in good value at $2.25 to be a potential seat gain on Saturday especially if there’s a slight increase in their primary vote and One Nation preferences go their way.
BACK LNP TO WIN KEPPEL $2.25
The seat of Townsville has mostly been held by Labor since 1989 with the exception of the 2012 LNP landslide. Labor were able to take back the seat in the 2015 election. However, with One Nation likely to poll a substantial amount of votes in this seat and Labor only holding his by a 5% margin it could be another seat that ends up in the hands of the LNP with a primary increase their way and a preference flow from One Nation.
BACK LNP TO WIN TOWNSVILLE @ $4.50
ONE NATION
Current sitting member Steve Dixon was originally elected as an LNP member for this Electorate in 2009, defected to One Nation at the start of the year to become the parties only member and leader in the current Queensland Parliament. Historically One Nation hasn’t polled well on the Sunshine Coast where this electorate is located but Dixon’s personal profile should be strong enough to get him over the line.
BACK ONE NATION TO WIN BUDERIM @ $2.10
Before being elected as a senator in the 2016 federal election Pauline Hanson came close to winning the seat of Lockyer at the 2015 Queensland election. With the current sitting member Ian Rickuss retiring and One Nation back as a major player this election expect this to be a seat that the party picks up on Saturday even if Hanson is not the candidate.
BACK ONE NATION TO WIN LOCKYER @ $2.25
Located in Pauline Hanson’s original federal seat of Oxley, Ipswich is traditionally Labor heartland. Former One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts (who resigned due to the dual-citizenship) is running as the candidate in this seat. Despite only polling 77 primary votes when running for the Senate expect Roberts to pick up a fair few primary votes and his high profile will also be a factor. One Nation has polled well in the past around the Ipswich area and Roberts is every chance to find himself in the Queensland parliament come election day.
BACK ONE NATION TO WIN IPSWICH @ $4.00
Won by Labor with a margin of 1.6% in 2015 Bundaberg could be another seat that could fall into the hands of One Nation. Although polls suggest that this seat could end up in the hands of the LNP on a two party preferred basis, the One Nation vote is strong in the area and could be one that sneaks over the line for them this election.
BACK ONE NATION TO WIN BUNDABERG @ $4.25
OTHERS
A new seat after redistribution is Hill. It takes in some of “Katter-Country”. This puts current Katter’s Australia Party member Shane Knuth in a position to make the seat slightly marginal with the LNP. Even with redistribution, the area tends to stick with Katter’s Australia Party and Knuth should be able to get over the line this election.
BACK KATTER’S AUSTRALIA PARTY TO WIN HILL @ $1.60
One of the more interesting contests this election is South Brisbane. The seat currently held by deputy Labor premier Jackie Trad and has traditionally been a safe Labor seat but recent trends have seen the rise of The Greens in inner-city electorates across Australia. Should the LNP finish second and the majority of their voters follow the preferences on the LNP How to vote, Trad may keep her seat but a high profile campaign and increase in the Green vote would see them win their very first seat in the Queensland parliament this election.
BACK THE GREENS TO WIN SOUTH BRISBANE @ $2.50
Originally won by Rob Pyne for Labor at the 2015 election, Pyne resigned from the party in early 2016. He has a high profile in the electorate and is a chance to regain the seat based on that alone.
BACK ROB PYNE INDEPENDENT TO WIN CAIRNS @ $3.25