Race 1 - 12:15pm
Group 3 Maribyrnong Plate (1000m)
Chicago Bull could not have been more impressive when he worked at Breakfast With The Best at The Valley before the Cox Plate and it is no surprise that he has opened as a clear favourite. In saying that, track work is very different to a race and it is impossible to get him as short as his current price in a race with this many unknowns. I am happy to stay out of this race and have a later start to the day.
Race 2 - 12:55pm
DrinkWise Plate (1700m)
This is an open race and there are a host of winning chances. Double The Magic was able to return to winning form with a fast-finishing effort at Morphettville last start and she should now be at peak fitness. She will get a long way back from the wide barrier draw, but she does have a nice turn-of-foot on her day. $13 is definitely over the odds in such an open contest.
1 Unit Double The Magic
Race 3 - 1:35pm
Twitter Trophy (1800m)
Take It Intern could hardly have been more impressive at Caulfield last start, in what was only his second race start in Australia. He still has the upside to improve on that performance and if he does that, he will go to a level that can’t be matched by any other horse in this field. He will need some luck in running from the wide barrier draw and Savacool is the obvious danger, but $6 is still over the odds.
1.5 Units Take It Intern
Race 4 - 2:15pm
Off The Track Subzero Handicap (1400m)
Harbour Grey returned to the races with an outstanding win at Geelong and he should improve from that performance. He missed the start and was forced to the settle at the tail of the field, but showed an outstanding turn-of-foot to finish over the top of his rivals. Mark Zahra will be able to settle him closer to the speed and he normally takes a step forward second-up.
1.5 Units Harbour Grey
Race 5 - 2:55pm
Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final (1600m)
Superhard has been set for this contest and he heads into the race on the back of two smart wins at Moe and Bendigo. He does still look to have upside and he does have a class edge over the majority of this field. The wide barrier draw isn’t ideal, but he does have tactical versatility and the fact that Mark Zahra is in the saddle is a genuine positive. I am confident that he will end up in better races than this one.
2 Units Superhard
Race 6 - 3:35pm
Listed Absolut Stakes (1000m)
This is an excellent race that is packed full of talent. Super Cash has a simply outstanding first-up record, she has scored five wins from seven race starts fresh, and she does look very well-placed in this contest. Last campaign, she was not beaten far in The Goodwood, Stradbroke Handicap and the Tatt’s Tiara and the form coming out of those races has been very strong.
Faatinah has been freshened-up for this contest and the $17 that is currently available is well and truly over the odds. He won the Carlyon Stakes first-up at The Valley and he is a horse that is capable of a high-rating performance on his day.
2 Units Super Cash
½ Unit Faatinah
Race 7 - 4:15pm
Listed TCL TV Stakes (1800m)
Tavidance’s performance at Ballarat last start was too bad to be true and I am willing to give him another chance. His debut win at the same venue was excellent and Darren Weir is more than capable of getting horses to bounce back from one flat run. He maps to get a lovely run in transit with Damian Lane in the saddle and $13 is big odds for a horse that clearly does have some ability.
1 Unit Tavidance
Race 8 - 5:00pm
Group 1 Kennedy Oaks (2500m)
Amphitrite is the class runner in the Kennedy Oaks field and I am willing to take the gamble that she will be able to run out the trip. Her wins in the Edward Manifold Stakes and the Thousand Guineas were both outstanding and there is little doubt that she is the best horse in this race. She is making a big jump from 1600 metres up to 2500 metres following her luckless run in the Empire Rose Stakes, but there isn’t a great deal of speed in this race and I would be surprised if it turned into a genuine staying test. Amphitrite has the talent to replicate Mosheen and win the Crown Oaks after running in the Empire Rose Stakes.
2 Units Amphitrite
Race 9 - 5:45pm
Group 3 World Horse Racing Roses Stakes (1100m)
Humma Humma has been excellent without winning this campaign. She has finished second behind Sunlight on two occasions, in both the Quezette Stakes and Thoroughbred Club Stakes, and she hasn’t missed the placings in any of her starts. She has made a habit of finding a horse better than her on the day and the Flemington straight is an unknown, but this is the weakest race that she has contested for some time and you simply can’t knock the form around Sunlight.
1.5 Units Humma Humma