2026 NRL Round 16 Tips & Predictions

The Knights are looking for a repeat performance at home after thrashing the struggling Dragons in Wollongong six weeks ago.   

FORM: The 8-5 Knights’ four-match winning streak ended in Round 14 via a heart-stopping 32-30 loss in Melbourne.  

The Dragons followed up their stirring maiden win of 2026 – a 30-26 upset of the Broncos in Round 13 – with a 34-12 loss to the Sharks, despite leading 12-6 at halftime.  

INS AND OUTS: Bradman Best returns for the Knights after picking up an injury in the Round 10 clash with the Dragons. Phoenix Crossland has been cleared to play, while Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Lucas are named to back up from Origin.  

Luciano Leilua comes into the Saints’ line-up following Jaydn Su’A’s pec injury, while Emre Guler is also back on deck.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Valentine Holmes had a torrid time opposite fellow former Queensland Origin rep Dane Gagai at WIN Stadium six weeks ago.  

HISTORY: The Knights have won three of the teams’ last four encounters, including a 44-10 thrashing in Wollongong in Round 10. They led 32-0 at halftime and Greg Marzhew grabbed a second-half hat-trick to finish with four.  

KEY STAT: Both teams have scored 10-plus points in 15 of these clubs’ last 16 clashes.  

VERDICT: The Dragons have shown moderate signs of improvement since they last met the Knights, but they’ve still conceded at least 26 points in their last 10 games.  

The Knights have attacking firepower coming out every orifice – averaging 36 points in their past five – and will be eager to put on a show at home.  

Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons Predictions

• Tip: Back the Knights to Score Over 31.5 Points @ $1.88 
• SGM: KNIGHTS -12.5 / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / GREG MARZHEW TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / DOM YOUNG TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $17.89 

After emerging from the wreckage of their last to the Panthers, the Tigers are searching for consecutive wins for the first time since April as they welcome the in-form Dolphins to Campbelltown.   

FORM: The Tigers bookended their horrific 68-0 loss to Penrith with hard-earned wins over Canterbury (22-16) and Gold Coast (36-28), moving to 10th with a 7-6 record.   

The slow-starting Dolphins shape as a premiership dark horse after winning their last six games, putting the cleaners through the Cowboys (40-14) and similarly Origin-depleted Roosters (48-10) in the past fortnight. 

INS AND OUTS: Adam Doueihi is in the Tigers’ extended squad, while Api Koroisau is named to back up from Origin. The Dolphins’ 19-man squad is unchanged, with Origin duo Max Plath and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki listed in the reserves, and Thomas Flegler, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Selwyn Cobbo rested. 

KEY MATCH-UP: Jarome Luai hit back at his critics with a hat-trick last week, but he needs to be the Tigers’ talisman again with Isaiya Katoa absolutely on fire for the Dolphins.  

HISTORY: The ledger is square at two-all, with the Dolphins’ twin 2024 wins at Suncorp Stadium bookended by Tigers victories at CommBank Stadium in 2023 and at Kayo Stadium in early-2025. All were decided by 1-12 margins.  

KEY STAT: Jack Bostock has scored a try in three of the four Dolphins-Tigers matches.   

VERDICT: The Tigers may have put their Penrith demolition behind them, but they are still miles off the form that had them touted as top-four contenders earlier this season – and they have won only one of their last seven at Campbelltown.  

The Dolphins’ winning streak includes wins in Canberra and Townsville, so they are finding the secret to winning away. Despite resting some of their Origin contingent, the Dolphins’ impetus in the halves and strike out wide should be too much to handle for a Tigers side that still looks pretty shaky.  

Wests Tigers vs Dolphins Predictions 

Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (+7.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: DOLPHINS WIN / UNDER 52.5 TOTAL POINTS / KODI NIKORIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / STARFORD TO’A ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $26.13 

Hinting at turning the corner in three straight games on the road, the Titans return home for a daunting clash with the runaway competition leaders.  

FORM: The 3-10 Titans sit second-last but have produced spirited losses in Sydney against the Sea Eagles (12-10) and Tigers (36-28) either side of their win over the Broncos (28-23) in Brisbane in their past three.  

The Panthers have still only lost one game, outlasting the Warriors (20-18) with three Origin players out and swamping the Tigers (68-0) in between byes.  

INS AND OUTS: Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Jojo Fifita are set to back up from Origin for the Titans, pushing Klese Haas and Jaylan De Groot to the bench. Lachlan Ilias has earned an interchange recall. 

Blues trio Isaah Yeo, Nathan Cleary and Brian To’o are listed in the reserves, with Lindsay Smith, Jack Cogger and Paul Alamoti named in their place. Izack Tago and Luke Garner team up in the centres with Casey McLean sidelined.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Cogger was superb in the post-Origin win over the Warriors, while rookie No.7 Zane Harrison has been impressive for the Titans.   

HISTORY: The Panthers are on a seven-match winning streak against the Titans dating back to 2019. Last season’s sole clash saw the Panther sneak a 30-26 victory on the Gold Coast in Round 22.  

KEY STAT: Dylan Edwards has scored six tries in his last seven games against the Titans.  

VERDICT: The Titans are certainly on the improve and will look to take advantage of a potentially Origin-fatigued Panthers outfit.  

But Penrith’s fill-ins are better than many sides’ top-liners, while the rep toll on the heavyweights is lighter than recent years. They’ve grafted their way to wins over high-quality opponents Manly and the Warriors while dismantling everyone else.  

It has the makings of a banana skin game – and Kini and Campbell can swing it the Titans’ way if the Panthers turn up distracted – but they’ve barely put a foot wrong in 2026.  

Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers Predictions

Tip: Back the Panthers to Win by 11-20 @ $3.30 

SGM: PANTHERS WIN / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / PHIL SAMI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BLAIZE TALAGI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LIAM MARTIN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $31.74 

Hunting back-to-back wins for the first time since Round 2, the Bulldogs have their work cut out unlocking the third-placed Sea Eagles’ defence.   

FORM: The 5-8 Bulldogs have won two of their last three, but the victories over the Origin-hit Storm (30-20) and the injury-ravaged Eels (14-12) were far from convincing.  

The Sea Eagles are 8-2 under Kieran Foran, bouncing back from an Origin-impacted loss at Cronulla with a 28-14 victory over the Rabbitohs in Round 14.  

INS AND OUTS: The Bulldogs have named Origin two scratching Stephen Crichton. Kurt Mann comes back at hooker, pushing Bailey Hayward to the pine.  

Tom Trbojevic returns for Manly, while admirable fullback fill-in Clayton Faulalo is out with a hamstring injury. Tolu Koula is named to back up from Origin and Ethan Bullemor is back from a head knock. 

KEY MATCH-UP: The Koula-Chrichton match-up takes on an extra edge after the Sea Eagles tyro moved to centre for NSW following the Bulldogs skipper’s withdrawal. 

HISTORY: Manly has won 11 of its last 13 against Canterbury, but the Bulldogs romped to a 42-4 victory at Allianz Stadium in their sole 2025 clash.  

KEY STAT: Both teams have scored 20-plus points in four of the last six Sea Eagles-Bulldogs encounters.  

VERDICT: The Sea Eagles have conceded more than 18 points just once under Kieran Foran and shape as a genuine title smoky. The Bulldogs have scored more than 16 points just once in their last seven games and their credentials are unravelling by the week.  

Throw in the return of ‘Turbo’ and Haumole Olakau’atu’s Origin axing motivation, and Manly could run a score here.  

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Manly Sea Eagles Predictions

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (-8.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: SEA EAGLES WIN / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TOM TRBOJEVIC ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $13.34 

The NRL debuts under the roof in Christchurch, with the Warriors and Cowboys both looking to halt two-game slides. 

FORM: The Warriors have followed up a six-match winning streak with narrow defeats to the Panthers (20-18) and Sharks (10-8) either side of the Round 14 bye.   

After an impressive 8-2 run, the Cowboys were disappointing in consecutive losses on the road to the Raiders (26-12) and at home to the Dolphins (40-14) before getting a bye last week.  

INS AND OUTS: With Alofiana Khan-Pereira ruled out, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad will start on the wing. The only other change to last week’s named 17 sees Sam Healey return for impressive debutant Makaia Tafua on the bench, but Origin duo Kurt Capewell and Mitch Barnett are in the reserves.  

Jeremiah Nanai returns for the Cowboys after a seven-week layoff and Braidon Burns is back on the wing. Zac Laybutt moves to centre and Jaxon Purdue goes to five-eighth with Liam Sutton benched. Maroons duo Murray Tualagi and Reuben Cotter have been named.  

KEY MATCH-UP: A huge battle between heart-and-soul No.13s Cotter and Erin Clark looms.  

HISTORY: The Warriors have won their last four against the Cowboys – and nine of their last 12. Last season’s sole clash was at Magic Round, where the Warriors raced to a big halftime lead before holding 30-26.  

KEY STAT: The Warriors have won their maiden match at just one of 10 premiership venues in New Zealand – Taupō’s Owen Delaney Park in 2011.  

VERDICT: The Warriors were far from poor in either of there recent losses, but a hint of pressure is building as they approach this big occasion clash without Fisher-Harris, Halasima, Khan-Pereira and potentially their Origin players on the back of recent ACL setbacks.  

Maintaining their defensive commitment – the Warriors have leaked more than 20 points just twice in 2026 and more than 14 only once in their last five games – will be the key in Christchurch. The Cowboys are starting to midseason pinch and have not performed overly well outside Queensland this year.  

In saying that, the line looks too big in a game the Warriors are likely to have to grind out following more line-up disruptions. 

New Zealand Warriors vs North Queensland Cowboys Predictions

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (+9.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: WARRIORS WIN / UNDER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / CHANEL HARRIS-TAVITA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $46.97 

The Storm will look to continue a recent upswing – and overcome something of a rivalry bogey – when they host the teetering Raiders on Sunday.  

FORM: The Storm have recovered from a seven-match losing streak to win four of their last five, grinding out an 18-4 win over the Roosters and prevailing in a 32-30 shootout with the Knights at AAMI Park before last weekend’s bye.  

The Raiders have won just one of their last five and were very disappointing in losses to the Roosters (26-0) at home and the Eels (15-12) in Sydney in the past fortnight.  

INS AND OUTS: Origin reps Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Trent Loiero have been named to play for the Storm, while Jack Howarth and Tyran Wishart return from injury.  

Blues duo Ethan Strange and Hudson Young, along with winger Savelio Tamale, are set to return to the Raiders’ line-up.  

KEY MATCH-UP: After Wednesday’s showdown across town at the MCG, five-eighths Munster and Strange will have a big say on their clubs’ fortunes at AAMI Park.  

HISTORY: The Raiders have won four of their last six against the Storm, including wins at Magic Round (20-18) last season and at GIO Stadium (26-22) in Round 7 this year.   

KEY STAT: The Raiders have won five of their last seven at AAMI Park, but the Storm outscored them 64 points to eight in winning the last two.  

VERDICT: Assuming Origin doesn’t throw any injury spanners into the works, the Storm are well-placed to continue their season turnaround here. Craig Bellamy’s side are still a fair way off their customary top-four form, but they have a couple of handy ins this week.  

And the Raiders have fallen off a form cliff – a shadow of the team that topped the table last year. They still have a couple of key forwards out and seem a side lacking in key-position experience.  

Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders Predictions

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-8.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: STORM WIN / ALTERNATE TOTAL POINTS UNDER 55.5 / SUA FAALOGO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / XAVIER SAVAGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $11.28 

The Roosters are looking to regain some momentum amid a taxing Origin period, but the Sharks head to Allianz Stadium on a roll.  

FORM: The Roosters have lost three of their last four, shutting out the Raiders 26-0 in Canberra in Round 14 before crashing 48-10 to the Dolphins without their representative cohort.  

The Sharks have won four straight despite some injury problems and rep absences, showing plenty of grit in a tense 10-8 eclipse of the in-form Warriors in Auckland last Saturday – aided by the clutch class of Will Kennedy and Braydon Trindall.  

INS AND OUTS: James Tedesco, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Sam Walker, Reece Robson, Rob Toia, Lindsay Collins and Victor Radley have all been named to play for the Roosters. Hugo Savala (concussion) has been ruled out.   

Cronulla could get Blayke Brailey back, while Nicho Hynes is also listed in the reserves. Addin Fonua-Blake and Birton Nikora have been named, pending their recovery from Origin.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Kennedy has been magnificent at the back for the Sharks, while Tedesco will be shouldering a heavy workload four days after the second Origin game.  

HISTORY: The Roosters have won 10 of their last 14 against the Sharks, but the Sharks have won four of the last seven. The Tricolours came home with a wet sail to win their Round 6 encounter 34-22 in Perth.  

KEY STAT: Cronulla has not won an away game against the Roosters since 2017.  

VERDICT: Last year’s elimination final combatants come together for the second time in 2026 – and at contrasting and equally important junctures, despite sitting level on the table in a share of third place.   

Unlike last year, the Roosters have struggled with the Origin factor this year. Usually unfettered by the rep stuff, the Sharks have flourished despite having a couple of players called up on top of some key-position injuries.   

The Roosters are 4-1 at Allianz this year – only losing to Penrith – but the Sharks deserve respect for the month of footy they’ve put together and are enticing underdogs.  

Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sharks Predictions

Tip: Back the Sharks to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / UNDER 50.5 TOTAL POINTS / DALY CHERRY-EVANS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / RONALDO MULITALO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $18.24