This is a tough race to analyse from a betting perspective as the majority of the field will be making their racing debuts. Lankan Star finished second behind Bella Rosa on debut in the Bumble Stakes at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day and that is the strongest exposed form, but the wide barrier draw isn’t ideal. It is impossible to bet into this race with any confidence.
No Bet
The Gatting Ball has been thereabouts without winning in his past couple of starts and this is his chance to atone. He was left a touch flat-footed by Prinz Hlodowig at The Valley last start and Damien Oliver will need to turn this into a proper staying contest. If he does that, he should prove too tough for his rivals in the concluding stages.
2.5 Units The Gatting Ball
I am confident that Hawkshot is the best horse in this field, but the inside barrier draw and the tight-turning circuit at The Valley is far from ideal for him. He will have a wall of horses in front of him and you have to take him on.
No Ties has made a strong start to his career in South Australia and he was nothing short of dominant at Gawler last start. He has the speed to go forward from the wide barrier draw and the fact that he has Jamie Kah in the saddle is a big advantage.
1 Unit No Ties
Villa Sarchi returned to the races with a dominant win at Ladbrokes Park and he has now recorded two wins from his four race starts over 1000 metres. He will get back, but there is plenty of early speed in this contest and avoiding that early battle could prove to be a positive. There is no reason that he can’t make it two wins on the trot.
2.5 Units Villa Sarchi
The market has zeroed in on Miss Norway and Free Over and I am happy to side with Miss Norway. I am happy to put the pen through her most recent race start at Caulfield and her form before that was excellent. She has recorded three wins from her five race starts over 1000 metres or shorter and she maps to get the run of the race with Mark Zahra in the saddle.
Update: Miss Norway has been scratched from the Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge and will instead run at Caulfield on Saturday. That leaves Freeze Over as easily the top pick in this race and the $3 that is currently available is well and truly over the odds.
3 Units Freeze Over
This is a very open betting race and there are a stack of winning chances. The horse that appeals at a nice price is Semari. She wasn’t disgraced in races like the Vinery Stud Stakes and the Australasian Oaks and she has won over a mile before. Class will take her a long way in what is far from the strongest race and she is well and truly over the odds at her current price.
1 Unit Semari
This is an excellent edition of the Australia Stakes and it is a very open betting race. Brave Smash is the consistent Group 1 performer in this field and he is a horse that generally rates at a similar level, which will likely be good enough to win this contest. His record at The Valley is strong, he beat a better field than this to win the Ladbrokes Manikato Stakes in the Spring, and he is a horse that does have plenty of tactical versatility. $6 is a great price in an open race.
1.5 Units Brave Smash
Greyworm showed plenty of ability in his maiden racing campaign and he looks well-placed to make a winning return to the races for his new stable. He has recorded two wins from his three race starts and the way that he put away his rivals at Ladbrokes Park last start was very impressive. There is no horse in this field with more upside and he makes his own luck right on the speed.
3 Units Greyworm