Tonga vs Samoa Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

Arguably the most anticipated – and certainly the most consequential – pool game has been saved for last. 

FORM: After a clinical, measured 30-12 win over England in week one, Tonga subdued Lebanon 36-0 – though it was perhaps not as comprehensive as expected.  

The first fortnight of the tournament has been a glorified training run for Samoa, demolishing France 78-4 and Papua New Guinea 64-6. Samoa has already scored 27 tries, an average of one every six minutes.  

INS AND OUTS: Isaiya Katoa returns from an ankle problem to spearhead Tonga’s charge from halfback, while Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Rob Toia return for Sione Katoa and Paul Alamoti. Tyson Frizell comes back in at lock with Jason Taumalolo reverting to prop and Stefano Utoikamanu to the bench.  

Siua Wong is back in the second-row for Tonga, pushing Kulikefu Finefeuaki to the pine.  

Samoa has named an unchanged starting line-up. Jazz Tevaga returns to the interchange and winger Deine Mariner – injured in the opening minutes against France, giving Sua Faalogo the opportunity to go on a tryscoring spree – is back in the reserves contingent.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Isaiya Katoa’s form and fitness is likely to be the factor Tonga’s performance – and entire World Cup campaign – hinges on. Meanwhile, Samoa No.7 Jarome Luai needs to go up a gear in his side’s first test of the tournament to date.   

HISTORY: Despite Tonga’s status as the new heavyweight in international rugby league, Samoa has won the nations’ only two encounters since 2018. They pulled off a 20-18 upset in the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals and smashed Tonga 34-6 in the 2025 Pacific Championships in Brisbane.  

KEY STAT: Eight of the last 10 Tonga-Samoa matches have produced totals of 40 points or less.  

VERDICT: An absolute blockbuster to wrap up the group stage, with both teams looking likely to progress to the semis. Tonga seem assured of their passage to the last four – unless they go down heavily and PNG thrash England.   

Samoa is in a more precarious spot, though they will know the exact equation after England and the Kumuls face off. Even if it’s something of a dead-rubber, an electric atmosphere at a jam-packed CommBank Stadium will lift the intensity.   

Samoa has not been remotely tested yet, which may provide Tonga with an advantage. But otherwise there is nothing between the stacked archrivals, who boast strikingly similar strengths. Expect Origin-like intensity and a tight encounter to match.  

Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less than 10.5 Points @ $1.87 

SGM: TONGA WIN / UNDER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TOLU KOULA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $23.17