PNG line up against England at WIN Stadium in Wollongong on Friday 30 October (8:05pm AEDT). Read on for our England vs PNG prediction and the best odds at Ladbrokes.
England is still right in the semifinal race – but they need a big score against PNG in Wollongong.
FORM: Responding to a 30-12 tournament-opening loss to Tonga, England overcame a scoreless first 20 minutes to annihilate France 82-0 last weekend. Herbie Farnworth and Dom Young both grabbed hat-tricks, while AJ Brimson made five line-breaks, scored a try and laid on three more.
Papua New Guinea recorded a patchy 42-18 first-up win over Lebanon, before being obliterated 64-4 by Samoa in one of the Kumuls’ most humbling losses ever on home soil. They trailed only 14-6 at halftime but conceded 10 tries after the break.
INS AND OUTS: England brings Jez Litten in at hooker with Brad O’Neill going to the bench, while Morgan Knowles’ return at lock bumps Victor Radley to the interchange.
Papua New Guinea has changed up its backline, with Zac Laybutt moving to fullback and Josh Feledy and Nene MacDonald forming an all-new centre combo. Luca Moretti returns at prop and Liam Horne will start at lock for the injured Jack de Belin.
KEY MATCH-UP: AJ Brimson had a huge day out against France to stitch up the England No.1 jersey and will be a dangerman for the Kumuls to contain. Laybutt is arguably PNG’s most dynamic player and the freedom of playing fullback could unlock the talent that hasn’t had a chance to fully shine so far.
HISTORY: England has a 4-0 record against Papua New Guinea, including big wins at the 2017 (36-6) and 2022 (46-6) World Cups. The Kumuls did knock over Great Britain in Port Moresby in 2019, however.
KEY STAT: The Kumuls have conceded 47.2 points on average against tier one nations in 10 Tests against tier one nations outside Papua New Guinea since 2008.
VERDICT: England has to go after a pointscoring bonanza here, but Brian McDermott’s side can’t afford to get ahead of themselves. Lay the early foundation and the tries should flow courtesy of a potent back-five.
With some key personnel absent from this campaign, the Kumuls were exposed by the class and firepower of Samoa in what was a bitterly disappointing second-half capitulation. They need to channel the resolve that kept the Pacific heavyweights to just three first-half tries.
England has everything to play for and should coast to a sizeable win at WIN Stadium.
Tip: Back England to Cover the Line (-37.5) @ $1.90
SGM: ENGLAND BY 41-50 / OVER 60.5 TOTAL POINTS / KAI PEARCE-PAUL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $26.20
England vs PNG Odds & Popular Betting Markets
Here’s a quick look at the current odds and popular betting markets for the England vs PNG matchup.
*odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change
| Team | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Matty Ashton (England) | 7.00 | Bet Now |
| Dominic Young (England) | 6.60 | Bet Now |
| Herbie Farnworth (England) | 6.80 | Bet Now |
| AJ Brimson (England) | 9.25 | Bet Now |
| Hugo Savala (England) | 10.00 | Bet Now |
| Mikey Lewis (England) | 14.00 | Bet Now |
| Kai Pearce-Paul (England) | 16.00 | Bet Now |
| Junior Nsemba (England) | 17.00 | Bet Now |
| George Williams (England) | 19.00 | Bet Now |
| Harry Smith (England) | 21.00 | Bet Now |
| Robert Derby (Papua New Guinea) | 21.00 | Bet Now |
| Sam Walters (England) | 21.00 | Bet Now |
| Jez Litten (England) | 21.00 | Bet Now |
| Dudley Dotoi (Papua New Guinea) | 23.00 | Bet Now |
| Victor Radley (England) | 29.00 | Bet Now |
| Nene Macdonald (Papua New Guinea) | 31.00 | Bet Now |
| Morgan Knowles (England) | 31.00 | Bet Now |
| Ethan Havard (England) | 34.00 | Bet Now |
| Josh Feledy (Papua New Guinea) | 34.00 | Bet Now |
| Zac Laybutt (Papua New Guinea) | 34.00 | Bet Now |
Men's World Cup odds correct as of 28/10/2026 and subject to change. Event scheduled to start at 30/10/2026 7:05pm AEST.