The Australian Guineas is always one of the highlights of the Melbourne Festival Of Racing and we are set for a simply outstanding edition of the Group 1 event at Flemington on Saturday.
It is the fillies that currently dominate our Australian Guineas betting market, in the form of Amphitrite and Mystic Journey, but this is a race with plenty of depth.
We have analysed all 17 horses in the field and our complete 2019 Australian Guineas tips can be found below.
Extra Brut
Extra Brut returned to the races with a fairly flat performance in the CS Hayes Stakes and he would need to improve on that effort to be any chance whatsoever in the Australian Guineas. He didn’t show his ability until he got out to 1800 metres in the Spring and he will be better suited in races like the Rosehill Guineas and the Australian Derby.
Long Leaf
Long Leaf returns to Australia after ending a lengthy losing streak with a classy win in the Karaka Millions in New Zealand. The fact that he has already had a race start over 1600 metres this campaign is big positive and he maps to get a lovely run in transit with Jamie Kah in the saddle. He will run better than his current odds suggest.
Stars Of Carrum
Stars Of Carrum was never able to get into the race in either the Ladbrokes Manfred Stakes or the CS Hayes Stakes. He is in a similar boat to Extra Brut and he will be better suited when he gets out to 2000 metres.
Ringerdingding
Ringerdingding is the value runner in the Australian Guineas field. He was not disgraced when he chased home Hawkshot in the Autumn Stakes and he produced an eye-catching effort in the Futuirty Stakes last weekend. The Sandown Guineas winner never looked like a winning chance, but he was only beaten by less than two and a half lengths by some of the best weight-for-age horses in the country and he ran the fastest last 400 metres and 200 metres. The long Flemington straight is ideal for him and the wide barrier draw isn’t a concern as he gets back anyway and it will ensure that he gets running room. The $10 currently available is well and truly over the odds.
Ranier
Ranier showed nice improvement to finish fourth in the CS Hayes Stakes, but I still think that he would need to go to another level to be a genuine winning chance in the Australian Guineas. The wide barrier draw does make it tricky for him and it is no real surprise that he has been an early drifter.
Chapada
Chapada got back and ran on fairly nicely in the CS Hayes Stakes last start. He will get back again and that makes it tough to judge him as a winning chance, but it would surprise to see him produce a better performance than his current odds suggest.
The Inevitable
The Inevitable is one of two Tasmanian-trained horses in the Australian Guineas field and he brings outstanding form into this race. He has recorded five wins from his six race starts and he stamped himself as a genuine contender with his tough victory in the CS Hayes Stakes. I’m not sold on that contest as the right form reference for this contest and he would need to improve again, but he is as tough as they come and it would be a great story if he was able to get the job done.
Hawkshot
A change of stable worked wonders for Hawkshot and he made his debut for the Lindsay Park team with a simply scintillating performance in the Autumn Stakes. He was ridden aggressively in that contest and Mark Zahra will have no option but to do the same from the wide barrier on Saturday. There is no doubt that his win in the Autumn Stakes was simply outstanding, but that was a clear spike rating figure and he will need to come out and do that again. He could very well do just that, but I can’t get him as short as his current price.
Performer
Performer produced a flat effort in Sydney first-up and he was very poor in the CS Hayes Stakes last start. It is very tough to back him off that effort.
Scottish Rogue
Scottish Rogue found the line nicely to finish sixth in the CS Hayes Stakes. That does look to be his level however and he has never shown anything to suggest that he is capable of winning a race of this quality.
Dealmaker
Dealmaker chased home Hawkshot in the Autumn Stakes and he is a horse that is definitely heading in the right direction. I think that he might need another run to be at his peak and a race like the Rosehill Guineas could be the ideal target for him.
O’Tauto
O’Tauto is another horse that comes out of the CS Hayes Stakes. He clearly relishes Flemington and he is a still has some upside. The $41 that is currently available is well and truly over the odds.
Adana
Adana is a horse that has never really lived up to the hype and he was fairly flat in the CS Hayes Stakes. $26 is well and truly under the odds.
Amphitrite
Amphitrite is the horse to beat in the Australian Guineas and she deserves to start the race as favourite. She returned to the races with a career best performance in The Vanity and the scary thing for her rivals is the fact that she still has the scope to improve on that effort. The step-up to 1600 metres is ideal for her and she maps to get the run of the race with Craig Williams in the saddle. She has recorded three wins at Flemington and she really does tick all the boxes.
Mystic Journey
Mystic Journey is the x-factor in the Australian Guineas. She has recorded four wins on the trot in simply scintillating fashion and she is a horse that truly could be anything. The enormous concern is barrier one. She is a filly that doesn’t have a great deal of early speed and she is going to have plenty of horses in front of her at the top of the straight. Trainer Adam Trinder admitted that Mystic Journey doesn’t enjoy racing inside other horses and a wide barrier draw would have been preferable. I am happy to oppose at the current odds.
Verry Elleegant
Verry Elleegant absolutely savaged the line first-up in The Vanity and she is a filly that will relish the step-up to the mile. She is another horse that has not benefitted by an inside barrier draw. She has not settled in the first half of the field in any of her race starts and there is no doubt that she will get shuffled back in the early stages. The Vinery Stud Stakes and the Australian Oaks are her races.
Declarationofheart
Declarationofheart is the first emergency in the 2019 Australian Guineas field. This is a huge step-up in class and he would need to go to another level to be competitive in this contest.