What a start!
The NRL kicked off with a bang courtesy of a pair of king-sized upsets, a string of tight finishes and overturned second-half deficits, a big statement from the defending premiers and injury disaster for another big gun.
Check out the key takeaways from a dramatic opening round.
Points at a Premium
Following the rule-change-influenced points-fests the 2021 premiership routinely delivered, the NRL’s opening round of 2022 was refreshing – albeit challenging for totals punters.
Last year’s regular season matches produced 46.3 points per game on average (up by almost five points on 2020). But the under saluted in seven of eight games over the weekend with just one fixture seeing a total of more than 44 points.
Parramatta’s controversial 32-28 victory over Gold Coast was the only match to keep the scoreboard attendant busy – though remarkably the last 38 minutes were try-less after the teams ran in 10 in the first 42 minutes.
Brisbane’s 11-4 upset of South Sydney represented the first time the Broncos had conceded less than 16 points since Round 3 last season.
North Queensland and Canterbury got stuck in a mid-1980s time warp with the Bulldogs holding on 6-4. The Cowboys hadn’t leaked less than 16 points in their previous 29 games, while the Bulldogs kept their 2021 opponents to less than 22 points on just three occasions.
Meanwhile, just two matches were decided by 13+ margins and only two head-to-head favourites got up. The corresponding round in 2021 produced six 13+ results, while only two rounds in 2021 saw six games decided by 1-12 points.
Panthers Get the Jump on Rival Contenders
After opening as warm favourites to beat Manly in Thursday’s season opener, Penrith eased out to slight underdogs following Nathan Cleary’s injury withdrawal.
But the Panthers were comfortably the most impressive team of Round 1, dismantling the Sea Eagles 28-6 in an emphatic warning shot across the bow of the other 2022 title hopefuls.
The defending champs were relentless on both sides of the ball, Sean O’Sullivan deputised superbly for Cleary, centre Izack Tago looked very much at home in his first NRL start, and premiership heroes Isaah Yeo, Stephen Crichton, Dylan Edwards and Api Koroisau were outstanding.
Of the other heavyweights in a clearly-defined top six, Souths and Sydney Roosters suffered shock losses, while Melbourne and Parramatta were unconvincing in holding on for hard-fought wins.
Equal favourites with the Storm prior to the season getting underway, the Panthers have already been backed into $4.25 favouritism to win the grand final and just $3.00 for the minor premiership.
Upsets for the Ages
Last week we highlighted some of the greatest Round 1 boilovers of all time – and Brisbane and Newcastle produced stirring season-opening efforts that demand inclusion in any updated editions of that list.
With marquee recruit Adam Reynolds sidelined by COVID-19, the Broncos were afforded an 11.5-point start for Friday’s showdown with the Rabbitohs. But Kevin Walters’ maligned charges grafted out an 11-4 triumph courtesy of a supreme defensive effort.
Clunky Souths could only manage one try despite having 30 tackles inside the gutsy Broncos’ 20-metre zone.
Brisbane’s middle forward tyros outplayed their vaunted Souths counterparts, Kurt Capewell was an unlikely field goal hero and the Broncos’ exciting young backs were unlucky not to put on a few more tries.
The Knights were the biggest outsiders of Round 1, but they made a mockery of wooden spoon buzz with a comprehensive 20-6 upset of a star-studded but flat Sydney Roosters outfit.
Adam O’Brien’s unfancied line-up kept their try-line intact until the 76th minute and made seven line-breaks to the Roosters’ zero, with five-eighth Jake Clifford starring and the Newcastle back five outshining their highly-credentialled opponents.
The Broncos and Knights both had their price to make the Top 8 shaved to $2.20 in the wake of their overachieving first-up performances.
Storm Confront Injury Crisis
Melbourne dug deep to overturn a 10-point second-half deficit against plucky Wests Tigers, finally sealing a 26-16 victory through Reimis Smith’s 73rd-minute try.
But the Storm provided the heartbreak storylines of Round 1, with luckless Queensland Origin prop and co-captain Christian Welch (ruptured achilles) and winger George Jennings (ACL) succumbing to likely season-ending injuries.
Marquee hooker/lock Brandon Smith could also miss the next month with a broken hand.
The Storm, already on the hunt for engine-room reinforcements for 2023 following the Dolphins’ raid on their roster, have confirmed they will delve into the player market with out-of-favour Dragon Tariq Sims a likely transfer target.
Five-eighth fill-in Nick Meaney, standout 2021 rookie Dean Ieremia and former New Zealand Rugby Sevens flyer Will Warbrick will vie for Jennings’ spot on the flank.
The Storm will welcome back Jesse Bromwich, a late scratching under the NRL’s COVID-19 protocols last week, and suspended stars Cameron Munster and Harry Grant for Thursday’s blockbuster against the Rabbitohs.
Dis-Turbo-ing Trend
Manly’s 28-6 loss to Penrith wasn’t Tom Trbojevic’s fault. But the blowout result did continue an alarming pattern for Manly: if ‘Turbo’ doesn’t dominate, not only do the Sea Eagles not win – they get pumped.
It prompted me to dig a little deeper into the fullback’s instantly iconic 2021 campaign. Of the 35 points Trbojevic polled on the way to Dally M Medal glory, 32 came from 11 matches Manly won by margins of 18 or more.
The remaining three came from a 38-32 win over the Warriors, where Trbojevic led the Sea Eagles to a big second-half lead before surviving a late surge. Ten of his 12 polling games were against teams that finished the season 10-14 or worse; the other two were against fading Parramatta.
Manly was involved in an NRL-low four games decided by a single-digit margin in 2021. The aforementioned defeat of the Warriors was the Sea Eagles’ only victory by less than 18 to involve Trbojevic.
The trend was magnified during the finals. Trbojevic carved up the depleted Roosters in a 42-6 week two thrashing, but he was a non-factor in heavy losses to the Storm (40-12) and Rabbitohs (36-16).
As the Panthers did on Thursday night, the better teams can blot out the Sea Eagles’ marquee man – and Des Hasler doesn’t appear to have a Plan B. Only one of Manly’s last 16 games have been decided by less than 10 points (and Trbojevic was missing).
Of course, Trbojevic’s near-unprecedented ability to dismantle opposition defences, however questionable their quality may be, is a big net positive. But if he can’t find a way to be influential in tight games – or Manly’s other stars can’t adjust when he’s targeted – the 2022 premiership trophy won’t be heading to the northern beaches.