Australia vs Samoa Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

Unbeaten Australia confront one of the most daunting semifinal assignments in their World Cup history in the shape of in-form Samoa.  

FORM: The Kangaroos have been unmistakably patchy through the pool phase but have done enough to come away with three wins, overturning second-half deficits to beat New Zealand (24-22) and Fiji (36-22) before soundly beating Cook Islands (66-6).  

Samoa crushed France (78-4) and Papua New Guinea (64-6), while they were gallant in a 20-18 defeat to Tonga in an epic encounter. Fighting back from a 10-point deficit to hit the lead with replacement half Ronald Volkman instrumental, Samoa was pegged back inside the final 10 minutes.  

INS AND OUTS: Australia’s starting line-up is unchanged with Latrell Mitchell left on the six-man bench and Bradman Best and Kotoni Staggs holding onto the centre spots. Cameron Murray returns to the interchange at Lindsay Smith’s expense, while Ethan Strange is retained in the No.14.  

Ronald Volkman comes in to start at five-eighth with Chanel Harris-Tavita ruled out. Jazz Tevaga is again named in the No.14 but could start at hooker, as he did against Tonga. Deine Mariner returns to the six-man bench after picking up an injury early in Samoa’s opening pool game. 

KEY MATCH-UP: Queensland fullbacks Reece Walsh and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow are arguably their respective teams’ most important player. Walsh had two line-breaks and five try assists against Cook Islands, while the ‘Hammer’ has four tries and two try assists in the tournament so far.  

HISTORY: Australia is 5-0 against Samoa, winning each clash by at least 20 points. The Kangaroos prevailed 30-10 in the 2022 World Cup final and cruised to a 38-12 victory in the 2023 Pacific Championships…with Tabuai-Fidow scoring two tries for the green-and-golds.  

KEY STAT: Tom Trbojevic and Jack Bostock have scored 13 tries between them at this World Cup. Sua Faalogo leads the way for Samoa with six tries.  

Australia has won 21 straight World Cup matches.  

VERDICT: Australia’s grip on favouritism for a fourth straight World Cup crown has loosened thanks to an underwhelming pool campaign – rarely have the green-and-golds looked more vulnerable. Physically, the Kangaroos struggled against the Kiwis and Fiji.  

Samoa match up well across the park, with the form of a rejuvenated Jarome Luai, a crack back-five and hungry, dynamic back-rowers their trump cards. Australia’s superiority at hooker and five-eighth, the presence of the mercurial Walsh and vast big-match experience still puts them in the box seat.   

But Samoa will have taken so much confidence from their fightback against Tonga. Australia will have to dig deep to keep the streak alive.  

Tip: Back Samoa to Cover the Line (+7.5) @ $1.98 

SGM: AUSTRALIA BY 1-12 / OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $19.24