New Zealand vs Tonga Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

A mouth-wateringly explosive first semifinal awaits in Newcastle as fierce rivals Tonga and New Zealand vie for a spot in the Suncorp Stadium decider.  

FORM: It’s been plain sailing for the Kiwis since an unlucky 24-22 loss to the Kangaroos in the tournament opener, pulverising Cook Islands (82-16) and Fiji (78-0) on the back of engine-room dominance and classy finishing.  

Tonga won a crunch opener against England 30-12 and subdued Lebanon 36-0, before edging out Samoa in a 20-18 classic. After they gave up a 10-point second-half lead, Tonga snatched the win via Addin Fonua-Blake’s 72nd-minute try.  

INS AND OUTS: Tonga’s line-up is unchanged. Leka Halasima has again been named in No.18 but got on the field last week with bench hooker Soni Luke unused. Paul Alamoti, Kulikefu Finefeuaki and Sione Katoa are the reserves in a deep squad.  

The only change to the Kiwis’ 17 sees Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad come onto the wing for Ronaldo Mulitalo, whose suspension is a real blow. But the selection of Kalyn Ponga (arm) and Phoenix Crossland (suspension) hints that a significant reshuffle could occur in coming days.  

KEY MATCH-UP: There’s some pivotal duels ahead in the spine and out wide, but whoever gets the better of the battle up front – James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota or Addin Fonua-Blake and Jason Taumalolo – will have a major bearing on this one.  

Meanwhile, No.13s Joe Tapine and Francis Manuleleua are having marvellous tournaments, and Naufahu Whyte has been a beast off the bench for the Kiwis – impact the likes of Stefano Utoikamanu will be aiming to replicate.  

HISTORY: Tonga kick-started an international rugby league revolution with a 28-22 win over New Zealand in Hamilton at the 2017 World Cup, while Isaiya Katoa’s field goal earned a 25-24 victory in Auckland in 2024 after the Kiwis had fought from 24-0 down.  

But the Kiwis powered to a 40-14 victory at Eden Park during last year’s Pacific Championships, having built a 24-2 halftime lead.  

KEY STAT: Jamayne Isaako has kicked 31 goals from 32 attempts at this tournament. Isaiya Katoa is 11 from 12. Casey McLean has scored 15 tries in just seven Tests for the Kiwis.  

VERDICT: Strap in for a monumental showdown. Both teams have lived up to the hype and the winner arguably deserves to head into the following week’s final as the favourite.  

The Kiwis’ relentless middle-forward rotation is an obvious strength, but they may met their match in the shape of their Tongan counterparts.  

Meanwhile, Mulitalo’s absence seemingly gives the Tongan three-quarter line an edge, and the potential injection of Ponga and Crossland on their home track is a make-or-break proposition for Stacey Jones.  

The sense of expectation could weigh heavily on Tonga, who only boast a few players that have won their way through to an NRL grand final; the Kiwis could have as many as 14 NRL grand finalists on show. But nothing about Tonga’s performances to date suggest they can’t get the job done here.  

Tip: Back Tonga to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS / CASEY MCLEAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATAU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $29.45