IGA SWIATEK V BIANCA ANDREESCU
World No.1 Iga Swiatek’s Indian Wells campaign ramps up in the Round of 32 with a showdown against 32nd seed Bianca Andreescu.
Swiatek kicked off her title defence in devastating style, brushing aside Clare Liu 6-0 6-1. She dropped a mere 11 points on serve. It follows on from her capture of the Qatar Open title for the loss of just five games and a dominant charge to the final in Dubai before being upset by Barbora Krejcikova.
Andreescu was in early trouble in her Round of 64 outing, losing the first set to wildcard Paula Stearns before rallying to a 4-6 6-4 6-3 win.
The scratchy result ended a three-match losing streak, retiring during her Thailand Open semi against Lesia Tsurenko before losing her first-up matches at the Abu Dhabi Open and Dubai Tennis Championships, to Yulia Putinseva and Elena Rybakina, respectively.
Swiatek won her only previous encounter with the 2019 US Open champ, 7-6 7-0 in the 2022 Rome Masters quarter-finals. Andreescu’s explosive best would test Swiatek – but we haven’t seen much of that in recent months.
Tip: Back Swiatek to Cover the Games Handicap (-6.5) @ $1.67
VARVARA GRACHEVA V DARIA KASATKINA
Eighth seed Daria Kasatkina takes on qualifier Varvara Gracheva in the Round of 32 after opening up her Indian Wells tilt in fine style. Kasatkina also has a score to settle after Gracheva tipped her out in the first round of the Australian Open in January.
Kasatkina – the runner-up at Indian Wells in 2018 – blitzed Tatjana Maria 6-2 6-1, though her first-serve win percentage was a concern. The Russian won 86 percent of her second-serve points, however, and completely dismantled Maria’s service game.
It’s been a largely disappointing 2023 so far for Kasatkina, aside from a run to the Adelaide International 2 final. After being caned 6-1 6-1 by Gracheva at the Australian Open, she made early exits in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Dubai.
World No.66 Gracheva won two qualifying matches then thrashed Ysaline Bonaventure 6-2 6-2 in the first round. The 22-year-old was similarly dominant in a 6-3 6-2 victory over 25th seed Petra Martic in the Round of 64.
As well as her third-round appearance at the Australian Open, Gracheva’s solid start to 2023 also includes a run to the ATX Open final two weeks ago that featured wins over top seed Magda Linette and grand slam winner Sloane Stephens.
This is a tough match-up for Kasatkina given her lack of consistency this season. Gracheva is on a roll and looks good value to cover here, if not salute as a $2.40 underdog with another upset of the top-10 star.
Tip: Back Gracheva to Cover the Games Handicap (+3.5) @ $1.75
JACK DRAPER V ANDY MURRAY
It’s an all-British showdown in the third round at Indian Wells with 21-year-old Jack Draper a $1.65 favourite to win in his maiden match against 35-year-old legend Andy Murray.
World No.56 Draper has already accounted for one highly-rated compatriot, thumping 24th seed Dan Evans 6-4 6-2 on the back of his first-round 6-1 6-1 disposal of Leandro Riedi.
This is the rising star’s first tournament since losing to Rafael Nadal in the first round at the Australian Open. Earlier this season he reached the Adelaide International 2 semis with wins over the likes of Tommy Paul and Karen Khachanov.
Murray, ranked 55th, had some trouble in the first round with Tomas Etcheverry, eventually getting home 6-7 6-1 6-4. He then overwhelmed Radu Albot 6-4 6-3 – his first straight-sets win this season.
Murray has played one other tournament since his memorable Australian Open performance, showing similarly incredible fortitude and clutch ability to reach the Qatar Open final with epic wins over Alexander Zverev and Jiri Lehecka. He went down to Daniil Medvedev in the decider.
A finalist at Indian Wells way back in 2009 and a semi-finalist in 2015, Murray is certain to find the dynamic Draper a tough nut to crack. But how will tyro Draper respond when Murray inevitable digs deep and starts pulling off near-impossible shots when his back is against the wall?
Strap in for another Murray rollercoaster.
Tip: Back Over 22.5 Total Games @ $1.95
CARLOS ALCARAZ V TALLON GRIEKSPOOR
US Open champ Carlos Alcaraz picked up where he left off after an injury break with some outstanding performances on clay. The Indian Wells top seed is aiming to reassert his status as a dominant hard-court force after missing the Australian Open and started in style.
Nineteen-year-old phenom Alcaraz crushed Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-3 6-3 in the Round of 64. Incredibly, he lost just seven points on serve.
His next opponent, Tallon Griekspoor, who has risen to a career-high ranking of 36th, outlasted Guido Pella 7-6 7-6 in the Round of 64.
The 26-year-old has enjoyed a wonderful start to 2023, winning the Maharashtra Open and reaching the Australian Open third round and the Rotterdam Open semis. He’s lost exclusively to big guns this season: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Jannik Sinner, Andrey Rublev and Novak Djokovic.
Alcaraz won the Argentina Open in his return and reached the Rio Open final, facing Cameron Norrie in both deciders.
Griekspoor beat Alcaraz in their first clash in Montpellier in 2021, but Alcaraz won subsequent matches at Estoril later that season and in the second round at Wimbledon in 2022.
Alcaraz made the semis at Indian Wells last year and should progress here, but in-form Griekspoor’s value with a big start is hard to overlook – he’ll made the Spaniard work for the win.
Tip: Back Griekspoor to Cover the Games Handicap (+4.5) @ $2.25