NRL Round 4 is headlined by a Thursday night grand final rematch and a mouth-watering inaugural southeast Queensland derby between the competition’s only 3-0 teams.
There’s also vital home assignments for Melbourne, South Sydney and North Queensland sides coming off consecutive losses, the in-form Warriors’ return to Auckland and an always-fiery southern Sydney derby.
Parramatta has bigger fish to fry than exacting grand final revenge on Penrith, desperate to get off the mark for 2023 and avoid an 0-4 start.
The Eels haven’t been too far off the mark in losing three straight games by four points to the Storm, Sharks and Sea Eagles – and they have had to deal with key absentees on top of off-season departures – but leaking 30-plus points in their past two games is an area that needs shoring up.
Ryan Matterson returns from suspension in a big in, with Matt Doorey going to the bench.
Penrith responded to its shock opening-round loss to Brisbane in typical fashion, beating big-talking Souths in a performance that was more convincing than the 16-10 scoreline indicated.
The Panthers’ attack hasn’t quite clicked yet but defensively they have shown why they’re the NRL’s benchmark.
Scott Sorensen returns from a head knock to the Panthers’ bench in their only change.
Parramatta produced two regular-season wins over Penrith in 2022: an epic 22-20 away result and a 34-10 blowout at home after Nathan Cleary’s early shower.
They were the Eels’ only two wins in the past eight derbies – and the Panthers went up a gear when it mattered, carving out emphatic victories in the qualifying final (27-8) and grand final (28-12).
Parramatta is 0-3 against the line in 2023 but an 8-point start at home is hard to pass up.
Expect the Eels to lift for the occasion, while the Panthers – still building a few new combinations – will again look to grind it out on the back of their defence.
Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (+8) @ $1.90
SGM: PANTHERS 1-12 / UNDER 40 POINTS / SUNIA TURUVA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CLINT GUTHERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $35.84
Melbourne Storm are unaccustomed to slow starts – this week they are looking to avoid going 1-3 for the first time since 2004 – but it’s the manner in which the perennial heavyweights have lost back-to-back games that will have left Craig Bellamy exasperated.
After getting overrun for the first 50 minutes of a 26-12 home loss to the Bulldogs, the Storm were lured into a points-fest on the Gold Coast and showed an alarming lack of composure – and came up with crucial errors that gifted the Titans points – in a 38-34 defeat.
In great news for the Storm, Cameron Munster returns from a broken finger suffered in Round 1 – but that’s been tempered by Jahrome Hughes’ two-match suspension.
Hosting Wests Tigers gives the Storm an ideal chance to right the ship, the joint venture has been atrocious so far in 2023, crashing to the Titans and Knights at home before going down 26-22 to the Bulldogs.
The Tigers’ attack is a shambles, but somehow they found three tries in four minutes to set up a grandstand finish at Belmore. The chances it was harbinger of a turnaround appear remote.
Tim Sheens has thrown darts at names on a board in a reshuffled line-up, with Adam Doueihi at fullback, Brandon Wakeham at five-eighth, Daine Laurie on the bench and David Nofoaluma dropped.
Isaiah Papali’i and Alex Seyfarth are back, while Joe Ofahengaue has been left out.
The Storm have won their last four against the Tigers, scoring 41.5 points on average. Last season’s Round 1 clash saw the Tigers hold the heavyweights to a 26-16 scoreline at CommBank.
A 2-12 record in Melbourne is not a great sign for the Tigers, but they haven’t conceded more than 29 points in their last seven visits.
Melbourne suffered a pair of three-match losing streaks during the second half of 2022 but should have little trouble avoiding that fate here.
The Storm have an ordinary cover rate coming off a loss but it’s impossible to make a case for backing the Tigers in any way, shape or form.
Tip: Back Storm/Under 42.5 Points in Winner/Total Points Double @ $2.40
SGM: STORM TO WIN BY OVER 6.5 / TIGERS UNDER 15.5 TOTAL POINTS / XAVIER COATES TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $8.55
This one was circled as a massive showdown in the pre-season, but the Dolphins’ and Broncos’ respective 3-0 starts have created a promoter’s dream ahead of an inaugural Brisbane derby that is sure to see the ‘House Full’ sign go up at Suncorp Stadium
The front-running neighbours backed up outstanding, character-filled victories in the first two rounds with scratchy – but ultimately fast-finishing and comfortable – wins in Round 3.
The Dolphins trailed the battling, injury-hit Knights with 25 minutes left but ran out 36-20 winners with Tesi Niu bagging a hat-trick and Jamayne Isaako running in a late double.
Tyro Tom Gilbert was huge in the Dolphins’ experience-stacked pack, while half Sean O’Sullivan was again integral.
The Broncos were locked 18-all with the Dragons with 10 minutes left on Saturday before piling on four tries and winning 40-18 as Reece Walsh, Payne Haas, Kotoni Staggs, Patrick Carrigan and Ezra Mam ran riot. The ever-reliable Adam Reynolds was the best player across the 80 minutes, however.
Felise Kaufusi’s controversial suspension is a blow for the Dolphins, who are still without banned hooker Jeremy Marshall-King for another week, however Jarrod Wallace’s return softens the blow a tad.
But the underdogs’ biggest advantage is mind-games master Wayne Bennett, who will turn up the theatre and attempt to get into the Broncos’ heads.
Counterpart and former protégé Kevin Walters already seemed on edge for this historic encounter a week out.
The fairytale Dolphins are yet to face an opponent with a decent formline or attacking cohesion – and the Broncos’ arsenal of firepower is arguably the NRL’s most dangerous at present.
But a double-digit start for an unbeaten team is mighty tempting in what shapes as a tight one.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90
SGM: BRONCOS BY 1-10 / OVER 43.5 POINTS / SELWYN COBBO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW @ $23.81
Fortunate to hang on for victory against Canberra in Round 1, last year’s biggest improver North Queensland is staring down the barrel of three straight losses after repeatedly being brought undone in the second half of matches.
The Cowboys faded in a 28-16 loss to the Broncos and started their malaise a lot earlier in a shock 26-12 home loss to the Warriors that the absence of Scott Drinkwater and Peta Hiku could not account for.
Todd Payten’s usually-consistent side has been outscored 40-7 after the break this year.
Their vaunted pack was thoroughly outplayed by an unheralded Warriors unit, while they were picked apart defensively up the middle and out wide.
Reuben Cotter is also out this week with James Tamou returning to the 17.
Gold Coast overachieved in getting off to a 2-1 start.
Bouncing back from a disappointing 14-point away loss to the Dragons, the Titans stunned the Storm the only way they know how: relying on their effervescent attack to score more points than their shaky defence lets in.
Tough skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Moeaki Fotuaika led the pack, while young game-breakers AJ Brimson, Aaron Schoupp and Alofiana Khan-Pereira thrived in the helter-skelter attacking nature of the 38-34 win.
The Cowboys have won 12 of the clubs’ last 15 clashes, including comprehensive victories at home (30-4) and away (32-6) last season.
In the Titans last 10 visits to Townsville, they have scored more than 14 points just once.
The Cowboys are unlikely to be as poor as last week, but with key players out and confidence lagging they’re a tough team to back giving away more than a converted try start.
The freewheeling Titans won’t make it easy – though they should offer more chances to rack up points than the Warriors did.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win by 1-12 @ $2.85
SGM: COWBOYS WIN / OVER 43.5 POINTS / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN KELLY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.11
South Sydney is playing well enough at this stage of the season, but the pressure valve will crank up a bit if the premiership contenders sink to a third straight loss to unbeaten Manly.
The Rabbitohs were ultimately unable to back up the braggadocio of their build-up rhetoric for blockbusters against Penrith and Sydney Roosters.
Poor discipline brought them undone in both losses, only firing in the last 15 minutes against the Panthers and surrendering a 10-0 lead to the Roosters.
Souths’ engine-room injury toll has worsened with Hame Sele, Tevita Tatola and Shaquai Mitchell out, Blake Taafe joins the bench and Daniel Suluka-Fifita and Jacob Host come into the starting pack.
Manly, emphatic Round 1 winners over Canterbury, came out of the bye with a 34-30 home win over Parramatta that would have been a lot more comfortable if not for some late defensive lapses.
The biggest positive takeaway was the dynamic performance of Josh Schuster, who immediately put a stamp on the No.6 jersey in his return from injury.
Tom Trbojevic is still tearing teams apart despite being shy of 100 percent and Haumole Olakau’atu and Taniela Paseka have been pack standouts.
Souths are on a six-match winning streak against Manly, with the last four decided by 14-plus margins.
Last season’s sole encounter saw the Rabbitohs outlast a plucky Sea Eagles outfit 40-22 with a late flurry following the eighth-minute send-off of Karl Lawton.
This match should provide a solid gauge of where both teams are at. Souths have had a tough draw and will be hellbent on staking their claim as one of the NRL’s top dogs – but their pack is under-strength.
We’ve only had a small sample of the Sea Eagles, and while their attack has been red-hot the ‘flat-track bully’ tag still lingers.
But it’s another case of a generous line being too good to overlook when it’s a team coming off two losses playing a side that has won two on the trot.
Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (+5.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / OVER 43.5 POINTS / CODY WALKER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CHRISTIAN TUIPULOTU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $29.03
It’s the clash of the ex-Penrith assistant coaches.
The Warriors are in a tremendous spot ahead of a long-awaited first home game at Mt Smart Stadium, having recorded two great wins and an honourable loss playing in Wellington, Sydney and Townsville.
The club’s immediate turnaround under Andrew Webster has been little short of remarkable, culminating in a dominant 26-12 win over the Cowboys.
Their defensive overhaul is the most striking aspect of their strong start, conceding the second-least points per game in the competition.
Shaun Johnson is firing alongside the likes of Te Maire Martin and Dylan Walker behind a fit and underrated pack, while a workmanlike backline is doing enough on both sides of the ball.
Cameron Ciraldo’s Bulldogs have put a Round 1 shocker behind them, following up a wonderful 26-12 win in Melbourne with a 26-22 defeat of the Tigers that should have been far more convincing, however the bad defensive lapses in the last 15 minutes were a wake-up call.
On the positive side, the Bulldogs’ expansive attack is shaping up nicely, Matt Burton is back to his best, winger Jacob Kiraz is the shock Dally M leader and rookie centre Paul Alamoti looks a handful.
Warriors fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is back from a head knock, while Freddy Lussick and the returning Jackson Ford come in for Wayde Egan and Mitch Barnett, respectively.
The Bulldogs are unchanged.
The Warriors’ four-game return to Mt Smart Stadium in late-2022 garnered two wins and two losses – including a memorable 42-18 thrashing of the Bulldogs as the hosts scored four unanswered tries in the last 25 minutes. It was the Warriors’ fourth straight win in the rivalry.
The Bulldogs have won just three of their last 23 outside Sydney and it’s a surprise the Warriors are only very narrow favourites.
The Warriors are 3-0 against the line with a 3-0 under record – expect both trends to continue in front of what should be a packed house in Auckland.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-1.5) @ $2.00
SGM: WARRIORS WIN / UNDER 42.5 POINTS / SHAUN JOHNSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.46
The 36-20 final scoreline against them didn’t reflect Newcastle Knights’ gallant effort for the first hour against the in-form Dolphins, leading midway through the second half despite a shocking injury and suspension toll that forced them to name three debutants on the bench.
Livewire Lachlan Miller has been a find at fullback, but the 1-2 Knights are struggling in most departments and the absence of Kalyn Ponga and Jacob Saifiti, arguably their two most important players, does not help their plight.
Hooker Jayden Brailey and lock Kurt Mann return this, while Tyson Frizell could be a late inclusion. Meanwhile, winger Dom Young has been dumped for Greg Marzhew.
Canberra, unfortunate to go down to North Queensland and the Dolphins in the first two rounds, chalked up a pressure-relieving 24-20 win over Cronulla last Sunday.
It was more nail-biting than it needed to be as the Raiders got the late wobbles, but it was impressive and important nonetheless.
Two-try hero Corey Horsburgh and blockbusting centre Matt Timoko were the standouts against the Sharks.
The Raiders have replaced hooker Danny Levi (broken jaw) with Zac Woolford, while Josh Papalii makes his first appearance of 2023 in a huge boost to the Green Machine pack.
Canberra made hard work of its two wins over battling Newcastle in 2022. Hudson Young’s 79th-minute try stole a 20-18 result at home after the Raiders had thrown away a 14-point lead.
The Raiders fought back from 14 points down to grab a vital 28-22 result in Newcastle in Round 23.
The Raiders are yet to concede more than 20 points, while the Knights are averaging just 15.3 points per game. Buoyed by their first win of the season, the Green Machine will get the job on the road against a Knights side heading in the opposite direction.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-5.5) @ $1.90
SGM: RAIDERS BY 11-20 / OVER 42.5 POINTS / SEBASTIAN KRIS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.96
Two clubs with a genuine distaste for one another, the first St George Illawarra versus Cronulla derby of 2023 shapes as an important one for both clubs.
The Sharks won’t be duly concerned with a 1-2 start after facing three of last year’s finalists with their captain and halfback sidelined – and Nicho Hynes returns this week in a massive boost.
They were disappointing in a 24-20 loss in Canberra in Round 3 but finished strong.
Leaking the second-most points in the competition so far will probably be Craig Fitzgibbon’s chief concern.
The under-fire Dragons came off the Round 1 bye with a solid 32-18 comeback win over the Titans and pushed the in-form Broncos for 70 minutes last Saturday, but watched an 18-all scoreline transform into a 40-18 blowout against them via four late tries.
There were genuine positives, though, despite the ugly end result with Tyrell Sloan growing into the fullback role and a low-profile middle-forward contingent again standing tall.
Toby Couchman returns to the Dragons’ bench for Michael Molo after missing last week with a head knock.
The Sharks have won the last five derbies, including a 36-12 beatdown in Wollongong in Round 3 last year and a 24-18 result at Cronulla in Round 21.
The Saints are looking for their first win over the Sharks at Jubilee since 2016, losing the last four there.
The Dragons have shown enough in two games to suggest they’re decent value as $2.40 underdogs.
But the Hynes factor cannot be understated and the Sharks – who are now only missing Wade Graham from a full-strength line-up – look good to continue their strong derby record.
Tip: Back the Sharks to Win by 1-12 @ $2.80
SGM: SHARKS -4.5 / OVER 42.5 POINTS / SIONE KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MIKAELE RAVALAWA @ $10.85