The 2024 PGA Tour season comes to a close at East Lake this week with a much-maligned format still in play to decide the season’s winner with the Top 30 in the FedEx Cup chase still alive.
Key Stats/Skill Set Required
- GIR
- Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Birdie or Better
- Putting Average
- Par 4 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Scrambling
East Lake is very much a second-shot course that rewards tremendous ball striking.
Putting well is key, as is form around the green.
Those with form on Donald Ross courses will enjoy a big advantage.
Key Correlation Courses/Tournaments
- Sedgefield
- Detroit Golf Club
BEST BET
XANDER SCHAUFFELE
The staggered starting strokes has Scottie Scheffler starting at -10 and close to odds-on favouritism but I fancy Xander Schauffele, starting two strokes back on -8.
He is going far better and with his East Lake form he looks the bet.
Schauffele won here in 2017 and in the six years since his worst finish is T-7 with three runner-up efforts.
Plus he is in the throes of his best season with two major victories.
In his last 10 tournaments he has not finished worse than 15th.
Ticks every box from a skillset point of view and leads the field in form on Donald Ross courses which makes him a standout play.
BEST VALUE
LUDVIG ABERG
Swedish powerhouse Ludvig Aberg has had a super season and even though he starts five shots adrift of the lead and does not have a win this year, he has the game that will put him in contention this year.
Aberg rangs sixth in Par 4 Scoring while he is Top 12 in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, Birdie or Better, Ball Striking and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.
Made an outstanding run to finish runner-up last week.
COLLIN MORIKAWA
Morikawa has twice finished Top 6 in the four trips to East Lake and I love his game for here. Ranks fifth in Putting Average, 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, as well as Strokes Gained: Around The Green, plus 11th in Scrambling and in Par 4 Scoring.
In this tournament you want players who can get super hot and go low and Morikawa is just that.
BEST ROUGHIES
SAM BURNS
Burns is one of the elite putters on the PGA Tour and nearly pinched the BMW Championship last week when shooting a final round 65.
Burns ranks second in Putting Average and fourth in Birdies and those stats put him in a great position to contend this week.
He has two Top 5s in his last eight starts and is another who can go low and pull back the pre-tournament deficit he brings in.
TONY FINAU
Finau starts seven shots adrift and is likely too far back to win but I’m expecting a big tourney from him as he plays his best when expectations are low.
He ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, sixth in Birdie or Better and seventh in Strokes Gained: Around The Green.
Will finish further up the board than he starts.
TOP BRITISH
RORY MCILROY
McIlroy starts three shots clear of his closest rival in this four-golfer marker and he has won here three times so clearly loves the join.
Short but looks way over the odds.
TOP LEFTY
ROBERT MACINTYRE
This is MacIntyre v Bhatia but fancy Bobby Mac is better suited.
Ranks Top 12 in Par 4 Scoring and Scrambling, two key categories to look at.