Fiji vs Cook Islands Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

Pacific Bowl rivals in recent years, under-strength Fiji and Cook Islands line-ups finish off the World Cup’s opening round in Newcastle on Sunday.

FORM: World Cup semifinalists in 2008, 2013 and 2017, Fiji came close to rolling the Kiwis again in the 2022 quarters. The Bati have suffered convincing losses to Papua New Guinea in the past three Pacific Bowl tournaments.

Cook Islands managed a win over Wales at the 2022 World Cup but went down heavily to Papua New Guinea and Tonga. The Aitu lost six straight Pacific Bowl Tests to Fiji and the Kumuls from 2023-25 before easily winning a World Cup qualifier against South Africa in Sydney last November.

INS AND OUTS: Bayleigh Bentley-Hape is at fullback, Sunia Turuva on the wing, Kurt Donoghoe and Brandon Wakeham in the halves, and Api Koroisau at hooker for Fiji. Jacob Saifiti returns from suspension at prop.

Centre KL Iro is the captain and Esan Marsters at halfback for a Cook Islands line-up that does not include veteran squad members Valentine Holmes and Marata Niukore. Davvy Moale is up front for the Aitu with Mason Teague at hooker.

KEY MATCH-UP: Koroisau is Fiji’s best and most important player. There would have been a temptation to put him at halfback, but he’ll line up in his preferred dummy-half spot. Teague played seven NRL games for the Dolphins in 2023, and the 23-year-old has a wealth of Queensland Cup experience.

HISTORY: Fiji is 9-5 against Cook Islands, winning six of the nations’ last seven internationals. The Aitu pulled off a 24-22 upset in Port Moresby in 2009, while Fiji won all three matches since at the 2023 (22-18), 2024 (56-6) and 2025 (44-24) Pacific Bowls.

KEY STAT: The past two clashes between these sides produced totals of over 60 points.

VERDICT: With Fiji going into the tournament without several key stars, this would seemingly be a real opportunity for Cook Islands to spring an upset, but the absence of Holmes and Niukore is a blow.

The class of Koroisau and a handy halves combination should see the Bati through to a win, but they’re lacking the usual backline firepower and forward grunt. A fired-up Aitu side is very capable of running the favourites close here.

SGM: FIJI BY 11-20 / TAANE MILNE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KL IRO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / UNDER 54.5 TOTAL POINTS @ $65.06