Samoa vs France Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

With for-and-against potentially crucial in the race for semifinal spots, a mouth-watering Samoa line-up will be looking to put the hurt on an unfancied French outfit at CommBank Stadium.

FORM: World Cup runners-up in 2022, Samoa lost a Test series in England 2-0 in 2024 but gave a solid account of themselves in the 2025 Pacific Championships. They pushed New Zealand and thrashed Tonga in the round-robin, before going down 36-14 to the Kiwis in the final.

France had a rough 2022 World Cup, beating minnows Greece but suffering big losses to Samoa and England. They have easily overwhelmed minor nations in recent seasons but can’t get anywhere near England.

INS AND OUTS: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has been named at fullback for Samoa with Sua Fa’alogo on a bench that includes Spencer Leniu, with Francis Molo and Junior Paulo to start up front in the absence of Payne Haas.

Jarome Luai and Chanel Harris-Tavita team up in the halves, Benaiah Ioelu gets the nod at hooker and Knights edge sensation Francis Manuleleua is a slightly surprising pick at lock.

France’s play will revolve around veteran halfback Theo Fages, while Benjamin Garcia skippers the side from hooker. Souths’ Latrell Siegwalt lines up in the centres.

KEY MATCH-UP: After a season soaked in controversy, Jarome Luai will be eager to make an immediate statement in the Samoa No.7 jersey. His duel with the wily Fages shapes as an intriguing one.

HISTORY: France’s only victory in five Tests against Samoa was at the expense of an under-strength team at home in 2006. Samoa has since beaten France at three of the past four World Cups, including a 62-4 demolition in the pool stage of the 2022 tournament.

KEY STAT: Samoa’s four World Cup wins over France were by an average margin of 38 points.

VERDICT: If Samoa plays to its potential, this should be a blowout, as the colossal line of 48.5 points suggests.

The French line-up is stacked with Super League experience, but they are set to struggle to contain a powerful pack and a back five brimming with strikepower.

SGM: SAMOA -48.5 / IZACK TAGO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / FRANCIS MANULELEUA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $8.08