PNG vs Lebanon Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

FORM: After reaching the 2022 World Cup quarter-finals (a narrow 24-18 loss to Tonga, then wins over Cook Islands and Wales in the pool stage), Papua New Guinea has dominated the Pacific Bowl in the past three seasons against Fiji and Cook Islands.

Lebanon reached the quarter-finals in a spirited 2022 World Cup campaign. The Cedars’ only international since was a narrow loss to Italy in Sydney last October.

INS AND OUTS: Bailey Biondi-Odo gets the Kumuls’ No.7 jersey with Lachlan Lam out, while Cowboys young gun Zac Laybutt partners veteran Nene Macdonald in the centres. Edwin Ipape is a key figure at hooker in a pack that includes Luca Moretti, Jack De Belin and Rhyse Martin.

Lebanon has named Jacob Kiraz at fullback in a back-five that also includes NRL players Jason Saab, Jordan Samrani and Tony Francis. NSW Cup star Alex Conti steers the ship from halfback and the pack is headlined by Alex Twal at lock.

KEY MATCH-UP: An ex-Bulldog takes on a current one in the halfback battle between Biondi-Odo and Conti. Both have racked up a pile of tries and assists in second-tier competitions in 2026.

HISTORY: This is the first clash between the nations.

KEY STAT: The Kumuls have won 14 of their last 15 Tests in Port Moresby.

VERDICT: Lebanon consistently punch above their weight, but the unavailability of both Mitch Moses and Adam Doueihi hampers their competitiveness in this campaign. Papua New Guinea, too, is reeling from the absence of Lam, Cooper Bai and Alex Johnston.

Steamy Saturday afternoon conditions in Port Moresby, where the Kumuls have an outstanding record over the past 17 years, are another big factor. But the Cedars are an attractive option with a three-try start in this one.

SGM: PAPUA NEW GUINEA WIN / UNDER 55.5 TOTAL POINTS / JASON SAAB ANYTIME TRYSCORER / RHYSE MARTIN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $19.91