Our Australia vs New Zealand prediction is in for Thursday 15 October, when Australia play New Zealand at Allianz Stadium in Sydney from 8:05pm AEDT. Here’s how we see it and the odds worth backing.
The Kangaroos get another World Cup title defence underway against the only other nation to win the tournament in the past half-century, the stacked Kiwis.
FORM: Searching for a fourth straight World Cup crown, Australia won the Pacific Championships reasonably comfortably in 2024 before sweeping England 3-0 in last year’s Ashes series.
New Zealand buried the disappointment of missing the 2024 Pacific Championships final by comprehensively beating Tonga and Samoa to win the tournament last year.
INS AND OUTS: Australian coach Kevin Walters has opted for Reece Walsh, Kotoni Staggs and Mitch Moses over grand final stars James Tedesco, Bradman Best and Sam Walker, while injury-prone veterans Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic return to the backline and Jack Bostock debuts on a wing.
Jacob Preston also debuts for the Kangaroos in the second-row and Tom Dearden grabs the No.14 jersey on a bench that also includes Cameron Murray.
Few surprises in the New Zealand side, besides perhaps Moses Leota retaining a starting spot with Naufahu Whyte and Erin Clark coming off a massive bench.
Jahrome Hughes returns at halfback for the Kiwis for the first time since the 2023 Pacific Championships final. The only debutants are allegiance-switching Knights stars Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai.
KEY MATCH-UP: Coming off an injury-hit season, Reece Walsh has contentiously retained his Test jumper and squares off against the player who usurped him for the Queensland No.1 jersey, Kiwis newcomer Kalyn Ponga.
Ponga has the recent form on the board after leading Newcastle to a grand final, but the pair are destined to fill up the highlight reels between them.
HISTORY: The Kangaroos have won nine of 11 Tests against the Kiwis in the previous decade, including a nail-biting 16-14 result in the 2022 World Cup semis and a 22-10 win in their most recent clash, during the 2024 Pacific Championships in Christchurch.
New Zealand powered to a record-breaking 30-0 win over Australia in the 2023 Pacific Championships final in Hamilton.
KEY STAT: The Kiwis have beaten Australia just once in Sydney since 1959, during the 2005 Tri Nations. Their last victory over the Kangaroos outside New Zealand was at Suncorp Stadium in the 2015 Anzac Test.
VERDICT: The Kiwis head into the tournament feted by many as the team to beat. The addition of Ponga and Gagai is an enormous boost, and while there are depth issues in several departments squad-wise, their 1-17 is one of New Zealand’s strongest ever, particularly in the middle forward rotation.
Australia, meanwhile, has picked a host of players who didn’t feature in the NRL finals, endured injury-hit seasons or were down on form (in some cases, all three). But it’s the Kangaroos, they are at home and they’ve lost just one World Cup game (the 2008 final) in the past 31 years.
Only three of the Kiwis’ named 17 didn’t feature in week two of the NRL playoffs or beyond, while eight Kangaroos didn’t play in the finals at all and another five dipped out in week one. Expect the visitors to hit the ground running with a rare Sydney win on the cards.
SGM: NEW ZEALAND WIN / OVER 39.5 TOTAL POINTS / CASEY MCLEAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KALYN PONGA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACOB PRESTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $69.98
Australia vs New Zealand Odds & Popular Betting Markets
Here’s a quick look at the current odds and popular betting markets for the Australia vs New Zealand matchup.
*odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change