England vs Tonga Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

Bolstered by a batch of NRL stars, England is a slight outsider to topple an imposing Tonga side in a critical opening-week showdown in Perth.

FORM: Pipped by Samoa in the 2022 World Cup semis, England won home series against Tonga in 2023 (3-0) and Samoa in 2024 (2-0) before being swept three-nil by Australia in last year’s Ashes series.

Tonga was bundled out in the quarters of the 2022 tournament by Samoa. After a win over New Zealand to reach the 2024 Pacific Championships final, they were soundly beaten by Samoa and the Kiwis in last year’s edition.

INS AND OUTS: AJ Brimson has retained the England fullback role, Hugo Savala will debut at centre, George Williams and Harry Smith team up in the halves again, and Max King, Morgan Knowles and Victor Radley make up an all-NRL middle forward trio with Man of Steel Brad O’Neill at hooker.

Lehi Hopoate will play fullback for Tonga, with Latu Fainu partnering Isaiya Katoa in the halves. Addin Fonua-Blake, Jason Taumalolo and Tyson Frizell are a fearsome middle trio, while Siua Wong has nabbed a second-row spot with Leka Halasima and Demitric Vaimauga to come off the pine.

KEY MATCH-UP: There are critical showdowns across the board, but the immediately eye-catching team sheet feature is crack Tongan centre combination Robert Toia and Tolu Koula facing off against Savala and Dolphins superstar Herbie Farnworth.

HISTORY: England are 6-0 against Tonga (including an epic 20-18 semifinal win in Auckland at the 2017 World Cup and a 2023 home whitewash with wins by 22-18, 14-4 and 26-4), but Tonga did beat Great Britain in Hamilton in 2019.

KEY STAT: England scored just two tries across three Tests against Australia last year. Tonga managed only three tries in their two 2025 Pacific Championships clashes.

VERDICT: The importance of this clash cannot be overstated. The winner will put one foot through the semifinals door, while the loser will not entirely be in charge of their own destiny when it comes to qualifying for the abbreviated knockouts phase.

Hype around the England side is muted after a toothless showing in last year’s Ashes, but Tonga, though seemingly more formidable on paper, is also coming off a dismal 2025 campaign.

But if AFB and co. can get on top physically, and with Katoa pulling the strings, Tonga’s wall-to-wall strike is impossible to ignore.

SGM: TONGA WIN / OVER 37.5 TOTAL POINTS / DOM YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ROBERT TOIA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $31.55